未来三年的中国楼市，将是一场"冰与火"的分化大戏。一边是三四线城市在人口外流、产业萎缩中持续阴跌，甚至跌回十年前水平；另一边是一线城市核心 区豪宅"慢涨"，强二线城市"产业+人口"双轮驱动下逆势上扬。这场变局背后，是人口流动、产业升级和政策调控的深度博弈。购房者、投资者该如何在这 场浪潮中找准方向？答案就藏在城市的"经济基因"里。 2025-2027：全国房价"普跌"中的结构性分化 三四线城市的困境，本质是"人口-产业-房价"的恶性循环。随着年轻人口向一二线城市迁移，这些城市购房需求持续萎缩，而前期过度开发的住宅库存却居 高不下。数据显示，部分三四线城市空置率已超25%，远超国际警戒线。更严峻的是，资源枯竭型城市（如鹤岗、双鸭山）因传统产业衰退，财政收入锐 减，城市更新乏力，房价可能率先跌回2015年水平。不过，环都市圈卫星城因承接一线城市外溢需求，叠加轨道交通（如地铁、城际铁路）贯通，可能成为 三四线城市中的"例外"，吸引部分通勤人群和养老群体，带动房价结构性补涨。 总结：楼市进入"精准投资"时代，选对城市比赌涨跌更重要 未来三年的楼市，早已不是"闭眼买都能赚"的时代。一线城市的核心资产仍是"硬通货"，但需 ...

潘石屹以前也发表过不少关于楼市的观点，有时候准得让人吃惊，有时候又让人摸不着头脑。 这次他说的这三大走向，可把大家的好奇心都勾起来了，我自己也研究了一下，结合身边的一些情况，想跟大家分享分享我的看法。 先说说第一个走向，房价的分化会更明显 啥叫房价分化呢，就是不同城市、不同地段的房价走势会越来越不一样，像那些一线城市和热点二线城市的核心地段，房价可能还会比较坚挺，甚至有小幅 度的上涨。 你看啊，这些地方经济发展好，就业机会多，吸引了大量的人才流入。 前阵子有人想出高价买他的房子，他还舍不得卖。 可是一些三四线城市，特别是那些人口流出比较严重的地方，房价可能就没那么乐观了。 这些地方产业发展跟不上，年轻人都往外跑，房子没人买，库存越来越多，为了把房子卖出去，开发商可能就得降价促销。 这就是房价分化的一个明显表现，未来3年，这种差距可能还会进一步拉大。 第二个走向，租房市场会越来越规范，也越来越受欢迎 现在年轻人的观念和以前大不一样了，以前大家都觉得买房才是安稳的，租房总感觉心里不踏实。 人多了，对房子的需求就大，而且这些核心地段的土地资源有限，房子就那么多，供不应求，房价自然就有支撑。 我有个朋友在一线城市的核 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future value of a property currently worth 3 million may vary significantly by 2030, influenced by three main factors: city differentiation, product quality, and developer reputation [1][2]. Group 1: City Differentiation - Properties in core urban areas of first-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai) are expected to maintain or increase in value, potentially reaching 3.3 to 3.5 million by 2030 due to stable demand and population growth [3]. - Strong second-tier cities (e.g., Hangzhou, Chengdu) show internal differentiation, where properties in developed areas may hold value around 3.1 million, while those in less developed areas could drop to 2.55 to 2.7 million [4]. - Ordinary second-tier and third-fourth tier cities face significant challenges, with properties potentially decreasing to 2.1 to 2.4 million due to lack of industrial support and population outflow [5]. Group 2: Product Differentiation - The quality of the property itself is crucial; well-designed homes with good amenities may retain value better, potentially selling for around 2.7 million, while poorly designed properties could drop to 1.8 million or less [7]. Group 3: Developer Differentiation - Properties developed by reputable large developers (e.g., Vanke, Poly) are seen as more reliable investments, while those from lesser-known developers carry higher risks of project failure or poor management, potentially leading to significant losses [8].

Group 1 - The global real estate market in 2025 shows a stark contrast, with UBS data indicating a 10.4% increase in the global real estate index, while China's housing market is in a downturn, with many landlords facing falling prices and unsold properties [1][4] - Major cities worldwide are experiencing rapid price increases, such as Tokyo's core area seeing over a 60% rise in prices over five years, and Seoul's 80 square meter apartments selling for 8.68 million RMB, nearly doubling in four years [1][4] - The price increases in these cities are driven by population growth, rising incomes, and a loose monetary environment, with Australia seeing over 400,000 net immigrants annually and Japan's university graduate employment rate at 98% with a 3.1% increase in starting salaries [1][4] Group 2 - In contrast, China's real estate market is facing a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices dropping to 25,000 RMB per square meter, a 1.25% month-on-month decline, while some new developments in Beijing sell out quickly [2][4] - The inventory of commercial housing nationwide requires over 23 months to deplete, with cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan seeing second-hand housing listings exceeding 200,000 units [2][4] - The demand side is under pressure, with marriage rates projected to fall below 5 million in 2024 and a significant decrease in the population of those born in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, leading to a substantial decline in traditional home-buying demand [2][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in China's housing market is not indicative of industry decline but rather the end of a bubble era, with past price increases driven by demographic and policy advantages rather than investment acumen [4][5] - The future of China's real estate market is expected to show a clear stratification, where properties in core urban areas will remain competitive, while vacant properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face significant value depreciation [4][5] - This adjustment is seen as a positive development, allowing housing to return to its fundamental purpose and freeing individuals from the obsession of being "trapped by housing" [4][5]

Core Insights - The recent policy changes are expected to lead to a decrease in transaction volume and price adjustments, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul [2] - The weekly growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul is projected to drop below 0.1% in the coming month due to restrictions on leveraged investments, increased taxes for multiple property owners, and higher mortgage thresholds [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Experts express concerns that the policy may exacerbate regional price disparities, with high-priced areas experiencing price increases while suburban areas stagnate [2] - The long-term reduction in housing supply could drive prices up, while the rental market may face pressure due to mortgage restrictions and bans on leveraged investments [2] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - Areas such as Gangnam, Yongsan, and Seongdong, which are characterized by cash-rich buyers and lower reliance on loans, are expected to see price increases [2] - In contrast, suburban areas that previously experienced lower price increases are likely to face significant stagnation, leading to a stark urban-rural divide [2] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - If policies restrict transactions, such as only allowing the transfer of rights among members in redevelopment apartments, a sharp decline in transaction volume may occur [2] - A decrease in supply could limit the extent of price declines, and when the market recovers, there may be a tendency for prices to rise [2]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant volatility, with predictions made by Pan Shiyi in 2018 regarding risks in the market being increasingly validated over time [1] - Key factors influencing the market include exchange rate differences, supply-demand balance, and sustainability of returns [3] Market Trends - The first trend observed is price fluctuations caused by supply disruptions, particularly as many buyers who utilized business loans during the peak period of 2020-2021 face risks due to falling property prices [5] - The second trend is the divergence in property prices across different cities and locations, with first-tier cities maintaining stable or rising prices while third and fourth-tier cities face downward pressure [5] - The third trend involves increasing difficulty in property demolition, as the market faces oversupply and government efforts focus on reducing inventory rather than increasing housing stock [7] Economic and Policy Environment - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth, but global economic uncertainties may impact the real estate market [7] - Government regulations aimed at stabilizing market expectations and prices continue to be enforced, including measures like purchase restrictions and lending limits [9] - Urbanization trends are leading to increased population movement towards first and second-tier cities, posing challenges for the real estate markets in third and fourth-tier cities [9] Market Sentiment and Challenges - The real estate market is characterized by uncertainty, with ongoing sales difficulties for developers and agents despite frequent policy interventions [11] - Issues such as unfinished projects (known as "rotten buildings") significantly undermine buyer confidence and contribute to market hesitance [11] - Buyers are encouraged to adopt a rational approach and avoid being misled by misleading promotions, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the current market landscape [13]

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a mixed performance, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5] New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2] - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, exhibited stronger price performance, with September new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [3] - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by real estate companies in core cities [3][4] Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6] - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6] - The second-hand home market is under significant pressure, particularly in second-tier cities, which experienced the largest price declines [6][7] Policy Impact - Various cities have begun implementing policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand housing market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, and the stabilization of home prices is seen as crucial for restoring market confidence [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed mixed signals, with new home prices experiencing slight increases while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2]. - The new home prices in the third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47%, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, exhibited strong performance with new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [2][3]. - The market remains uneven, with second and third-tier cities struggling to reduce inventory, as evidenced by a 0.35% month-on-month decline in new home prices in September [3]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6]. - The second-hand home market has faced continuous pressure, with prices declining for 41 consecutive months, and a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced the largest declines in second-hand home prices, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [6]. Market Dynamics and Policy Responses - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by developers in core cities, which has helped stabilize the market [3][4]. - Various cities have begun implementing targeted policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand home market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7]. - Despite these efforts, the second-hand home market is expected to continue facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak market expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about housing prices becoming as cheap as onions is increasingly becoming a reality, as housing prices in China have significantly declined since 2022, with some areas experiencing drops of over 60% [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average price drop of over 30% compared to historical highs [3]. - In certain third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to extremely low levels, with some properties available for just tens of thousands of yuan [3]. - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with increased regulatory measures anticipated [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment for real estate is expected to tighten further, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increases in public housing loan limits to encourage home purchases [5]. - Tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, are also likely to be implemented to support the market [5]. Group 3: Price Differentiation - A clear differentiation in housing prices across regions is anticipated, with cities that have already seen significant price drops having limited further decline potential [7]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which still have high price-to-income ratios, are expected to experience a correction, starting with suburban areas before affecting city centers [7]. Group 4: Shift from Off-Plan to Completed Properties - Due to recent financial issues faced by major real estate companies, there is a growing demand to eliminate off-plan sales, leading to a shift towards selling completed properties [9]. - This change allows buyers to inspect properties before purchase, enhancing consumer confidence in the market [9]. Group 5: Elimination of Shared Area Costs - An increasing number of cities are abolishing the shared area cost in property pricing, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area only, which is positively received by the public [10][11]. - The trend of eliminating shared area costs is expected to continue, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a rollercoaster of fluctuations, with a consensus among industry leaders that the next five years will see a "structural differentiation" in housing prices across different cities and regions [5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, 42 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new residential property prices, while 28 cities experienced a decline [1]. - First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou continue to show price increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 2.8%, 4.1%, and 1.9% respectively [1]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities are facing challenges, with a 1.5% year-on-year decline in new residential property prices, marking the third consecutive year of price drops [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Population flow is a significant factor affecting housing prices, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing net inflows, while many third and fourth-tier cities face outflows [2]. - Financial environment improvements, such as reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, have contributed to market confidence, with the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to approximately 3.8% [4]. - The supply-demand relationship is also crucial, as a 5.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 12.3% drop in new construction area have led to reduced supply in stable demand areas, supporting price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry leaders like Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin predict that high-quality assets in core first and second-tier cities will maintain value and see moderate growth, while third and fourth-tier cities will face significant downward pressure on prices [7]. - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of broad growth to a more refined development stage, emphasizing the importance of quality properties over mere ownership [7]. - For potential homebuyers, focusing on actual needs and affordability is more critical than speculating on price movements, as the essence of housing is for living rather than investment [10].