当前房地产的真实量价？如何稳？20251215 摘要 受 2024 年同期高基数影响，2025 年 10 月和 11 月新房销量依然疲软， 一线城市房价年初以来跌幅扩大，以上海为例，二手房价格已回落至 2016 年初水平，北京、广州类似，深圳跌幅更大。 当前市场基本面不支持现有房价，2024 年 9 月政策效果消退后市场逐 月下滑，一线城市租金回报率远低于按揭贷款利率，房价或需再降 30%-40%才能达到理论底部。 预计 2026 年全国新房成交量将降至 6.8 亿平方米，接近但未达理论底 部。房价持续下滑影响买方预期，加剧开发商财务压力，若无政策干预， 趋势将延续。 预计 2026 年第一季度末或有政策调整，需关注数据变化及中央工作会 议表态。有效政策需中央明确稳定目标，需求端发力，如大幅下调存量 房贷利率、降低交易税费等。 房地产风险主要来自高杠杆和高周转模式，房价下跌导致土地和未售项 目贬值，低杠杆开发商也可能面临售价低于成本问题，行业风险难以出 清，影响居民消费和银行抵押物价值。 Q&A 当前房地产市场的整体情况如何？ 根据国家统计局的数据，当前房地产市场仍在继续下滑。11 月份，全国新建住 宅销售同 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: November 30, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Glass Industry Core View - The glass market is currently in a sideways trend. It may rebound in the short - term due to the intersection of short - term production cut expectations and policy expectations, but long - term pressure remains due to factors such as forward premium and high inventory [2][3] Supply - As of November 27, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 220 in operation and 76 cold - repaired. The开工率 was 74.32% and the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%. As of November 20, the daily output was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% [2][3] - Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd.'s Yijun Second Line with a designed capacity of 900 tons stopped feeding during the week, and there were no ignition lines [2][3] - The total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines in 2025 was 15,580 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 13,910 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,790 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting volume of 10,030 tons. The potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 10,700 tons/day [6][7][8] Demand - As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.9 days, a decrease of 8.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year. In November, the average orders of deep - processing samples in each region decreased compared to the beginning of the month. The weak order situation led to some processing plants having phased holidays [2][3] Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million heavy cases, a decrease of 941,000 heavy cases month - on - month (1.49% decrease) and an increase of 27.23% year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.5 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [2][3] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, with most remaining unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 yuan/ton), in central China's Hubei region it was around 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable) [15][19] - The profit of petroleum coke was around - 31 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fueled were around - 227 and 4 yuan/ton respectively [23][27] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways and weak, with upper pressure at 1,080 - 1,100 and lower support at 950 - 960 - Inter - period: Temporarily buy 01 and sell 05 - Inter - variety: Short - term buy glass and sell soda ash [2][3] Photovoltaic Glass Industry Price and Profit - Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.96% month - on - month; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is around 19.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.27% month - on - month [42][44] Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, a decrease of 0.73% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 29.33 days, an increase of 4.25% month - on - month [50][54] Soda Ash Industry Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and production cuts. The capacity utilization rate was 80%, down from 82.7% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is around 383,000 tons/week [59][61][62] Inventory - The domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (3.47% decrease) from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 40,500 tons month - on - month [65][67][68] Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,150 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,150 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer's ex - factory price remained unchanged [75][79] - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 140 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China was - 38 yuan/ton [84] Strategy - Due to the recent continuation of production cuts and inventory decline, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the inter - period spread [80]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, with both second and first-tier cities experiencing price declines, leading to uncertainty about future property values by 2025 [1][3][5] Market Trends - As of September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities nationwide is 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of month-on-month price declines [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have not lifted purchase restrictions, while most other cities have fully relaxed such policies, alongside banks reducing mortgage rates to below 3.5% and down payment ratios to 15% [3] Policy Responses - Various market stimulus policies have been implemented, including tax reductions on property purchases to alleviate buyer pressure, indicating that nearly all available measures have been utilized [3] Diverging Opinions on Future Prices - Some analysts believe that the current price decline is temporary and that the market will stabilize and enter a growth phase, predicting that properties will be worth "golden prices" in five years [3] - Conversely, others argue that factors such as an aging population, nearing the end of urbanization, and a tightening financial environment will lead to reduced housing demand, resulting in properties becoming "cheap as scallions" [5][7] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant imbalance in property ownership, with a few individuals holding multiple properties while many first-time buyers remain unable to afford homes, suggesting a persistent bubble [5][7] - The potential for increased property listings due to investors selling off excess holdings could further pressure prices downward, reinforcing the likelihood of properties becoming more affordable [7] Regional Price Differentiation - There is an expectation of price divergence, with core areas in first-tier cities potentially seeing price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience significant devaluation due to population outflows and limited economic diversity [9] - Notably, average price declines in first-tier city centers have exceeded 30%, with specific areas like Shanghai's Minhang District seeing price drops of up to 50% [9]

Core Insights - Recent favorable policies in the real estate market have led to a relaxation of purchase restrictions in most cities, with only core areas in first-tier cities remaining restricted [1] - Mortgage rates have dropped to a historical low of 3.2%, encouraging some first-time homebuyers to enter the market [1] Group 1: Types of Properties Losing Popularity - Industry experts warn that three types of properties may become unpopular in the next decade: suburban properties, seaside properties, and high-rise residential buildings [3] - Suburban properties are particularly vulnerable to price declines due to inadequate local amenities, transportation difficulties, and limited job opportunities, leading to a significant drop in demand [5] - Seaside properties face challenges such as insufficient local infrastructure, seasonal vacancy issues, and high maintenance costs due to environmental factors [7][8] - High-rise residential buildings have seen price drops exceeding 40%, with concerns over safety during emergencies, higher maintenance costs, and difficulties in future renovations or demolitions [10] Group 2: Market Implications - The current real estate market recovery, driven by government policies, has prompted many first-time buyers to consider purchasing homes [10] - Experts advise that owners of suburban properties, seaside properties, and high-rise buildings should consider selling to avoid potential future losses, as these properties may become increasingly difficult to sell [10]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Changes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai, discussing the impact of recent government policies aimed at stimulating the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Short-term Impact of Policies**: The rescue policies in Beijing and Shanghai provided a slight short-term boost to transaction volumes, but this increase was not sustained. The net signing data showed limited improvement, indicating insufficient attraction for new users and failure to drive a continuous market recovery [1][2]. - **Market Stability**: After the implementation of rescue policies, the listing volumes in Beijing and Shanghai showed fluctuations. Beijing experienced an initial increase followed by a decrease, while Shanghai consistently reduced listings. This suggests relative market stability without large-scale sell-offs, although market confidence remains weak [1][2]. - **Price Trends**: There was no significant increase in housing prices in both cities. In Beijing, the month-on-month decline expanded from -1% to -1.4%, while certain areas in Shanghai saw declines exceeding 1.3%. This indicates ongoing downward pressure on prices [1][2][3]. - **National Market Conditions**: Since April, the national real estate market has been deteriorating, although transaction volumes stabilized in July and August, outperforming the same period last year. However, price declines have widened, particularly in first-tier cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai, which have seen declines greater than the national average [1][3][5]. - **Market Confidence**: The rescue policies have had a limited effect on boosting market confidence. The data on viewings and real-time transactions indicate that the number of new users entering the market has not significantly increased, and prices have not shown an upward trend [4][5]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: A key recommendation for future policies is to lower interest rates. Current mortgage rates are around 3%, which is considered high in the current economic environment. A reduction to 2.5% could replicate the effects of last year's successful rescue measures [6]. - **Timeframe for Price Stabilization**: The current stabilization in transaction volumes is at a low level. A balance between supply and demand is necessary for price stability, and many landlords are forced to sell due to a lack of confidence. Clear expectations of interest rate cuts could alleviate selling pressure and enhance purchasing activity [7][8]. - **New Housing Market Response**: In Beijing, new home transactions increased from 563 to 814 units post-policy, while in Shanghai, transactions rose from 1,800 to 2,200 units. This indicates a positive initial response in the new housing market, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [9]. Additional Important Insights - The Iceberg 100 Index indicates that the national real estate market has stabilized at a negative 12% level since September of last year, with first-tier cities performing the worst. The effectiveness of the rescue policies has diminished over time [3][4]. - The average rent-to-sale ratio is currently at 2.7%, and when mortgage rates align closely with rental yields, it can provide support for housing prices [6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market dynamics in Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting the effects of government policies, market conditions, and future outlooks.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is facing significant challenges as it continues to adjust, with expectations for a new round of extraordinary market rescue measures in September 2025 to stabilize the sector and stimulate demand [1][5][16] Market Conditions - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of new commercial residential properties was 384 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, while sales revenue was 3.88 trillion yuan, down 5.2% [1] - The average sales prices of new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities fell by 3.7% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively [1] - A second-tier city experienced a 30% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume in the first half of 2025, with second-hand home listings increasing and transaction cycles lengthening [4] Policy Background - The real estate sector is crucial for economic growth, employment, and fiscal revenue, and its ongoing downturn is a significant drag on economic development [5] - The central government has emphasized the need for targeted policies to support housing demand and promote a stable and healthy real estate market [7] Expected Rescue Measures - Financial policies are anticipated to be further relaxed, including potential reductions in mortgage rates, with some cities possibly seeing rates drop below 3% [8][9] - Loan limits may be increased, and banks could ease requirements for income verification and other documentation to facilitate borrowing [11] - Local governments may enhance home purchase subsidies and tax incentives to lower transaction costs for buyers [11][12] Impact on Buyers - First-time homebuyers stand to benefit significantly from lower mortgage rates and increased subsidies, potentially saving over 100,000 yuan in interest over 30 years with a 100,000 yuan loan [13] - Buyers looking to upgrade their homes will also find it easier to navigate the market due to relaxed policies on second-home loans and sales restrictions [14] - Investors are advised to approach the new rescue measures cautiously, as the long-term outlook for the market remains uncertain despite potential short-term price increases [15]

Core Points - Shanghai's new real estate policy aims to stimulate housing demand and improve market circulation by relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan mechanisms [1][2][5] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows eligible non-local residents with at least one year of social insurance to purchase unlimited properties outside the outer ring of Shanghai [7] - For those with three years of social insurance, one property can be purchased within the outer ring [7] - Single adults are treated as families for purchasing purposes [7] Group 2: Financial Support Measures - The policy increases the maximum housing provident fund loan limits, with first-time buyers now eligible for up to 1.84 million yuan, an increase from 1.6 million yuan [8] - The second home loan limit rises from 1.3 million yuan to 1.495 million yuan [8] - The policy allows for the extraction of housing provident funds for down payments without affecting loan limits [8] Group 3: Loan Rate Adjustments - The new policy eliminates the distinction between first and second home loan interest rates, allowing banks to set rates based on market conditions [10] Group 4: Property Tax Revisions - Non-local residents purchasing their first home will be exempt from property tax, while subsequent purchases will have a tax exemption for 60 square meters per person [12]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has been experiencing a long-term decline since 2022, with average housing prices dropping over 30% nationwide, and a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices for more than 30 months, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% in July [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in various cities, including first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, have joined the downward trend, indicating a widespread market adjustment [1]. - Despite the downward trend, numerous government policies aimed at stimulating the market have been introduced, such as lifting purchase restrictions and increasing housing loan limits [3]. - The average mortgage interest rate has been reduced from a peak of 5.88% to 3.2%, and tax reductions have been implemented to lower the cost of home buying [3]. Group 2: Expert Predictions - Notable figures like Li Ka-shing and Cao Dewang predict a significant reshuffling in the housing market over the next five years, advising caution for speculative buyers while suggesting that home purchases for personal use may still be viable [6][8]. - Li Ka-shing's actions, including the sale of properties at discounted prices, reflect a bearish outlook on the future of the real estate market [6]. - Cao Dewang emphasizes that real estate is fundamentally not valuable, urging homeowners to sell excess properties to avoid future losses [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing market faces long-term oversupply, with 600 million buildings available for a population of 3 billion, and over 120 million vacant homes, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [8]. - The aging population in China, with over 300 million individuals aged 60 and above, is expected to reduce the demand for new housing, as many older individuals already own homes [10]. - A decline in the younger population, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, suggests a shrinking demand for first-time home purchases [10]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Slowing income growth among residents, exacerbated by economic downturns and layoffs, is leading to more rational home-buying decisions, with many families now considering their financial situations before purchasing [10]. - The price-to-income ratio for housing in second-tier cities is between 20-25, while in first-tier cities, it exceeds 40, indicating a disconnect between housing prices and residents' income levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has officially lifted the purchase restrictions for properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, allowing local residents and non-local residents who have paid social insurance and individual income tax for over two years to buy unlimited properties in this area [1][3]. Group 1: Market Response - Following the policy change, there was an increase in the number of visitors to sales offices in the Fifth Ring Road area, with one popular project reportedly selling over 20 units in a single day [3][4]. - In the Daxing District, real estate agents noted a perceived increase in market activity after the new policy was implemented, although this was based on subjective feelings rather than concrete data [6]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicated that during the first weekend after the policy change (August 9-10), the transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remained stable, with new residential properties selling 83 and 92 units, and second-hand homes selling 178 and 116 units respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - Prior to the new policy, the Beijing real estate market was experiencing rising inventory levels, with a 4.6% increase in second-hand home listings in July compared to June, while agent confidence decreased by 3.84% [8]. - Experts suggest that the new policy may address specific purchasing needs and positively impact market transactions, but emphasize the necessity of resolving issues related to second-hand homes to achieve a more balanced supply-demand relationship [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Chinese real estate market and the implementation of various policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting healthy economic development, raising questions about whether it is a good time for potential homebuyers to invest in real estate [1][3]. Market Overview - The real estate market has transitioned from rapid growth to gradual cooling, prompting the introduction of several policies to stabilize the market, which have alleviated some downward pressure but also caused market volatility [3]. - Understanding market dynamics is crucial for homebuyers to make informed decisions regarding property purchases [3]. Impact of Policies - Policies such as lowering down payment ratios and relaxing purchase restrictions have reduced barriers to homeownership, enabling more individuals to buy homes, but may also lead to rising property prices and increased purchasing costs [3][4]. - Homebuyers must weigh the pros and cons of these policies against their financial situations and housing needs [3]. Interest Rate Changes - Recent interest rate cuts by the central bank have lowered mortgage costs, providing a favorable environment for homebuyers by easing repayment pressures [3]. - Fluctuations in interest rates introduce uncertainty, necessitating careful monitoring by potential buyers to plan their loans effectively [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is a key determinant of price trends, with many cities experiencing an oversupply that limits price increases, while some hot cities still face demand exceeding supply, potentially driving prices up [3]. - Homebuyers should assess the supply-demand conditions in their respective cities to make informed decisions about property investments [3]. Buyer Sentiment - Buyer expectations significantly influence the market, with many anticipating price increases due to the introduction of supportive policies, which may lead to a heated market and increased risks [4]. - It is essential for buyers to remain rational and avoid impulsive decisions based on market trends, focusing instead on their personal circumstances [4]. Investment Strategy - Distinguishing between long-term investment and short-term speculation is vital; for owner-occupiers, current conditions may present a favorable buying opportunity, while speculators face greater risks due to market volatility [4]. - Buyers should clarify their investment objectives to make sound decisions in the current market environment [4].