文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大家双节快乐～ 8天的国庆、中秋假期就要结束了。 假期里也有很多朋友盼着大盘开门交易。 假期里，A股没有交易，A股指数估值没有变化，还是节前的4.1星。 不过假期里港股等资产是有波动的。 按照惯例，假期后也会更新下估值表。 1. 港股 港股上周整体上涨，不过本周周一、周三港股下跌。 整个假期里港股涨跌波动不大。 港股科技股表现比较坚挺，恒生科技指数上涨0.75%。 港股假期里的涨幅，不会丢失，会在节后也就是10月9日的基金净值中体现出来。 即，10月9日港股基金净值，会更新「假期里涨跌幅」+「10月9日当天港股涨跌幅」。 2. 美股及其他海外市场 假期里，全球股票市场微涨。 美股上周上涨，本周一周二略微下跌。 恒生指数下跌0.1%，H股指数下跌0.33%。 标普500略微上涨0.39%，波动不大。 3. A股 A股假期里没有交易。 不过海外市场有追踪A股的品种。 可以看作海外投资者，认为假期里A股的涨跌情况。 假期里，富时A50指数股指期货，略微下跌0.13%。 A50指数类似国内的MSCI A50、中证A50，是超大盘股的代表。 美股场内的沪深300指数基金，假期里略 ...

今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨。 截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大中小盘股都上涨。 创业板指数大幅上涨，收盘点数创下今年新高，距离高估也很接近。 证券指数也大幅上涨，目前到了正常偏高的估值。 港股比较强势，港股科技股上涨较多。 马上就是国庆+中秋假期了。 1. 也有朋友问，几类基金，最晚啥时候买，算是假期之前买入的？ （1）货币基金 9月29日周一下午15点之前，算假期前买入。 （2）债券基金 9月30日周二下午15点之前，算假期前买入。 债券基金，假期里也可以收获到债券的利息等收益。 只不过假期里，债基不会每天更新净值，会在假期回来后的第一个交易日，统一更新。 其实我们不会因为假期，就卖出手里的基金的。 这点在短债基金上比较明显。例如90天组合，一般在春节、国庆假期回来后第一个交易日晚上，会把假期的收益也一并更新。 不过90天投顾组合，本身对投资周期也有要求。最好是持有一段时间，例如1-3个月以上，毕竟债券基金短期里还是会有少量波动。 如果9月29日错过了货币基金，那可以考虑在9月30日下午3点之前，用短债基金来获得国庆假期的收益。 （3）股票基金 9月30日周二下午15点 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天A股港股比较强势，整体上涨。 截止到收盘，还在4.2星，距离4.1星不远。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨更多。 昨天价值风格强势，今天变成成长风格强势。 科创、创业板领涨。 港股也整体上涨。 • 港股恒生指数，上涨43%。港股科技股上涨更多，恒生科技上涨66%。 人民币资产最近一年涨幅排在全球前列。 原因也是因为，一年前估值实在太低了。 当时A股港股在5.9星。 港股科技股上涨超2%。 1. 今天刚好是9月24日一周年。 在一年前，9月中旬，A股港股都在5.9星上下。 过去一年里，A股港股大幅上涨，从5.9星的历史极端低估，上涨到现在的4.2星上下。 过去一年里，截止到9月23日收盘： • 全球股票市场，上涨17%。 很多指数的估值创下历史新低。 同时A股港股整体估值，比全球市场平均估值，低50%。 另一方面，去年9月美联储开启了首次降息，之后美元利率、汇率下降。 全球市场流动性变得充裕。 同时去年9月24日，咱们也推出了一篮子的利好政策。 加上国家队买入上万亿的300、500等指数基金，让A股港股逐渐从底部提升起来。 低估，是最大的利好。 如果再来一轮5点几星，相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation, with growth styles recently underperforming while value styles are gaining traction. This indicates a potential shift in investment strategies and opportunities in different sectors [5][7][22]. Market Performance - The market index showed a decline during the day, reaching a low of 4.3 stars but rebounded to 4.2 stars by the end of the trading session [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [3]. - Growth styles faced a more considerable downturn, while value styles overall increased [4][7]. Sector Analysis - The banking index saw an overall increase, although it had previously reached a high valuation before correcting to a normal valuation [8][9][10]. - The recent market structure favors active selection strategies, as evidenced by the slight increase in active selection portfolios [12][13]. Market Trends - The market is characterized by structural bull markets where certain sectors lead while others lag, with each bull market cycle featuring different leading sectors [14]. - Bull markets are not continuous; they often exhibit patterns of rapid increases followed by corrections, indicating the need for patience from investors [15][16]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown 2-3 cycles of significant short-term increases followed by consolidation or corrections [17][18]. Investment Strategy - For investment strategies, the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, suggesting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings until a low valuation is reached again [21]. - The active selection portfolio continues normal investments, while the monthly salary treasure portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [44][45]. Personal Pension Investment - The pension index funds, specifically the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, have returned to normal valuations, leading to a pause in new investments until they reach undervalued levels again [31][32]. - The performance of these pension index funds has shown profitability, with the CSI A500 up by approximately 20% and the CSI Dividend up by about 4% over the recent months [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the phenomenon of style rotation and the emergence of terms like "old Deng stocks" to describe underperforming stocks in a market characterized by structural bull runs [1][32]. Market Overview - The overall market showed slight gains, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [2]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks experienced minor increases, with similar growth rates [3]. - There is a noticeable divergence in market performance, with growth styles like the ChiNext showing more significant gains compared to value styles, which are generally declining [5][6]. Style Rotation - The article introduces the term "old Deng stocks," referring to stocks that have seen minimal price increases over the past two years [8][27]. - Examples of "old Deng stocks" include sectors like liquor, home appliances, and coal, which have not performed as well as the recent strong growth sectors such as technology and chips [29][30]. - The discussion of "old Deng stocks" reflects a broader trend of style rotation within the A-share market, where certain categories of stocks outperform while others lag behind [32][34]. Historical Context - The article references past market trends, such as the "big rotten stinky" label for large-cap stocks during the small-cap bull market of 2015, and the "three fools" term for underperforming bank and insurance stocks during the growth bull market of 2020-2021 [10][16][22]. - It notes that the definitions of these terms have evolved over time, with new categories emerging as market dynamics shift [25][26]. Investment Implications - The article suggests that when certain assets are ridiculed, it may present buying opportunities due to potential undervaluation [41][42]. - Conversely, when assets are highly favored, it may indicate a selling opportunity due to potential overvaluation [43][44]. - The cyclical nature of the market is emphasized, indicating that strong-performing stocks may eventually face valuation corrections, while currently underperforming stocks may rise in prominence [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that while the initial reaction may be positive, the benefits may diminish over time due to market expectations and previous price adjustments [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a significant rise of approximately 33% globally since the Fed's first announcement of rate cuts in September 2024 [5]. - The A-share market, represented by the CSI All Share Index, increased by over 50%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by over 60% during the same period [5]. - The article notes that the current market conditions reflect a decline in large-cap stocks, with a more modest drop in small-cap stocks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5][6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, which is seen as beneficial for global assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5][6]. - The article emphasizes that the benefits of rate cuts may not be immediate and often manifest before the actual cut occurs, as markets tend to price in expectations [5][6]. - Future expectations suggest that the Fed may implement additional rate cuts, potentially lowering rates by another 50 basis points, which could further influence market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article provides insights into the valuation of dividend and free cash flow indices, suggesting that these metrics are crucial for assessing investment opportunities in the current market environment [7][10]. - A valuation table is included, detailing various indices' earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other financial metrics, which can guide investors in making informed decisions [8][9]. - The article encourages investors to monitor these valuations regularly through a dedicated mini-program for updated data [10].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with significant gains in small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in the growth style sector, while the Hong Kong stock market is outperforming A-shares [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market opened lower but closed higher, maintaining a rating close to 4.2 stars [1]. - Small and mid-cap stocks showed more significant increases compared to large-cap stocks [2]. - Growth style stocks have seen substantial gains [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has risen more than the A-share market, with technology stocks leading the charge, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which increased by over 4% [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Currency Impact - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to benefit both RMB assets and Hong Kong stocks [6][7]. - A decrease in the US dollar interest rates is favorable for investments in Chinese assets, as evidenced by the significant rise in the Hong Kong market starting from the first rate cut last year [8]. Group 3: Historical Context and Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance can be misleading if viewed in isolation, as it only represents a portion of the A-share market [12][13][14]. - Historical data shows that from 2019 to 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 52.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw increases of 132% and 202%, respectively [15][16][17]. - The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is considered normal, despite its lower growth compared to other indices during previous bull markets [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The market's star rating reflects its valuation, and even with a lower star rating, indices can still appreciate over the long term [30][31]. - Historical bear market lows indicate that each subsequent bear market tends to have higher bottom points for major indices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for A-shares [38][42]. - The company emphasizes the importance of strategic buying during market dips and selling during peaks, advocating for a disciplined investment approach [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting the growth in technology stocks and the overall market trends, while also addressing the bond market's fluctuations and the significance of various indices in reflecting market conditions. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, closing at a rating of 4.3 stars [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks experienced minor gains with low volatility [2] - Growth style stocks slightly declined while value style stocks saw a minor increase [3] - Hong Kong stocks have continued to rise, particularly in the technology sector, with significant year-on-year profit growth in Q2 [4][5] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The stock market remains robust, but the pure bond market has shown volatility [7] - Long-term pure bonds have continued to decline, with the 10-year government bond down 3% and the 30-year bond down 5% from their highs this year [9] - The current yield for the 10-year government bond is around 1.8%, which is not considered attractive at this time [11] Group 3: Historical Context of A-share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high in August, peaking at 3888 points, but has not surpassed the 2015 high of 5178 points or the 2007 high of 6124 points [14][15][17] - The bull market from 2005 to 2007 saw the index rise from under 1000 points to 6124 points, a sixfold increase, which has impacted long-term returns [18][20][22] - The index has shown long-term growth, particularly at the bottom points of bear markets, which are influenced by the fundamentals of listed companies [26][34] Group 4: Index Fund Dynamics - The number of index funds linked to the Shanghai Composite Index is significantly lower compared to those linked to the CSI 300 and CSI 500, with only 16 funds totaling 8.9 billion compared to 285 funds for CSI 300 totaling 1.3 trillion [38][39] - The underrepresentation of the Shanghai Composite Index in the fund market is attributed to its limited scope, only including stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [42][44] - The majority of recent investments by state-owned entities have been in CSI 300 and CSI 500 index funds rather than the Shanghai Composite Index [45] Group 5: Future Outlook and Features - The article mentions the launch of new features for investment strategies, including an "automatic profit-taking" function for actively managed and enhanced index portfolios [53][54] - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to access core data and real-time valuations of mainstream ETFs, helping investors identify undervalued ETFs [57][60]

Market Overview - The market has shown strong momentum, recovering from a recent decline of approximately 6% and closing at 4.3 stars [1][2] - Growth stocks that previously experienced significant declines have rebounded strongly [3] - The leading sectors in the market have shifted, with the ChiNext board experiencing substantial gains [4][5] Sector Analysis - The ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation boards, while both growth-oriented, have different industry compositions [6] - The Sci-Tech board is closely related to chips and AI, whereas the ChiNext is more associated with new energy, pharmaceuticals, and technology [7] - The Sci-Tech 50 index has reached high valuations earlier this year, while the ChiNext has recently started to catch up [8] Investment Cycles - The market operates in cycles, alternating between bull and bear markets due to economic cyclicality [23] - Three main cycles influence the stock market: fundamental cycle, liquidity cycle, and sentiment cycle [25] - The fundamental cycle reflects the growth rate of corporate earnings, which has been slow from 2022 to 2024 but is expected to recover by 2025 [26][28] - The liquidity cycle is influenced by interest rate changes, with anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve likely to boost markets [30][31] - The sentiment cycle is characterized by investor emotions, which can lead to extreme optimism or pessimism [32][34] Investment Strategy - Investors should recognize that opportunities arise during market declines, while risks often emerge during market rallies [36] - Smart investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, while remaining patient during neutral periods [41] Valuation Insights - The article provides a summary of Hong Kong stock index valuations, which can serve as a reference for investors [43] - Various indices are listed with their respective price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market valuation landscape [45][46][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing a decline, with significant drops in various stock categories, particularly in growth styles, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The market saw a decline across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, with losses exceeding 2% [2]. - The ChiNext 50 index has faced a notable drop of 6% in a single day, marking a 10% pullback over just four trading days [4][5]. - Despite recent gains, the ChiNext 50 remains relatively expensive even after the pullback [6]. Sector Analysis - Industries such as semiconductors and military-related stocks have also reached high valuations and are experiencing significant corrections [7]. - Value styles tend to exhibit less volatility during market fluctuations compared to growth styles [8]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market often experiences style rotation, where growth stocks perform well while value stocks lag, and vice versa during downturns [10]. - Some dividend indices have shown resilience, with certain indices even posting gains amidst the broader market decline [9]. Bull and Bear Market Insights - The article discusses the characteristics of bull and bear markets, noting that a technical bull market is generally defined as a rise of over 20% from a bear market low [14]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rarely exhibit slow bull markets, often characterized by rapid increases [17][20]. - Historical data indicates that significant market gains occur in a small percentage of trading days, emphasizing the importance of being present during these periods [23][24]. Future Market Outlook - Market fluctuations are normal, and the potential for future gains largely depends on the earnings growth of listed companies [37][39]. - Companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations are less likely to face significant downturns [40][42]. - The long-term trend of the market remains upward, with each bear market bottom typically higher than the previous one [44][46]. Investment Strategies - The article provides insights into dividend indices and their valuations, suggesting that certain indices may be suitable for investment based on their current valuation status [11][50]. - A summary of various dividend funds and their performance metrics is included for investor reference [48][49].