分析师估计欧元区第三季度经济增长了0.1%——与前三个月持平。由于政策制定者不确定额外的货币 宽松政策能否大幅提振产出，且通胀受控，欧洲央行定于今日下午将借贷成本维持在2%不变。根据彭 博社最近的一项调查，这种利率水平可能会持续两年。 智通财经APP注意到，法国经济以自2023年以来的最快速度意外增长，缓解了因新一轮政治动荡可能导 致其失去增长动力的担忧。其第三季度产出增长了0.5%——高于前三个月的0.3%，并且是分析师预期 的两倍多。 法国统计机构国家统计与经济研究所周四发布的数据显示，贸易和国内需求的改善推动了经济增长。财 政部长罗兰·莱斯库尔称这一结果是"卓越的表现"。 法国经济增长创2023年以来新高 这份报告是欧元区今日大量数据发布的一部分——此外还有欧洲央行的利率决议。这些数据可能表明， 这个由20个国家组成的集团正在较好地应对唐纳德·特朗普引发的关税动荡。但是，除了西班牙持续表 现出色之外，任何新的增长动力可能要等到明年各国政府增加国防和基础设施支出时才会出现。 该地区其他第三季度的经济数据表现参差不齐。比利时数据显示增速从0.2%加快至0.3%，而爱尔兰、 芬兰和立陶宛则出现萎缩。 法国的强 ...

Political upheaval, high-profile theft, and courtroom drama marked the weekend's major global developments. From mass demonstrations across US cities to a daring jewel heist at the Louvre and a closely watched antitrust case in Texas, the weekend's news cycle captured turbulence across politics, law, and culture. Meanwhile, Bolivia ushered in a new political era with ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+, marking a significant blow to the country's credibility amid rising debt burdens and political instability [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - France has lost two "AA" ratings from major credit rating agencies within a month, which may compel strict investment funds to sell French bonds [1]. - The downgrade places France at the same level as Spain and Portugal, six levels above junk status, with a stable outlook [1]. Group 2: Political and Fiscal Challenges - France's minority government is struggling to pass legislation to address its growing debt, with high budget uncertainty despite the submission of the 2025 budget draft [1][4]. - Recent political instability, including the dismissal of two prime ministers over budget issues, has raised concerns about a potential public finance crisis [4]. - The current Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has made compromises to maintain his position, including agreeing to increase fiscal deficit spending and suspending pension reform plans [4][5]. Group 3: Fiscal Targets and Economic Outlook - Lecornu aims to reduce the budget deficit from 5.4% of GDP this year to 4.7% next year, while maintaining a target of below 3% by 2029 [4][5]. - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields has increased by over 85 basis points recently, indicating rising borrowing costs for France [5][6]. - S&P warned that further deterioration in France's fiscal situation or economic growth prospects could lead to additional rating downgrades [6].

马达加斯加总统拉乔利纳13日晚经由社交媒体发表国内政局恶化以来的首次视频讲话，表示因人身安全 受到威胁，目前已转移至"安全的地方"。 这是11日马首都塔那那利佛一处军营发生哗变后，拉乔利纳首次公开露面。他在社交媒体平台"脸书"直 播的视频中说，自从9月25日以来，一直有夺取他性命的企图和政变。"一群军人和政客策划谋杀我"， 他说，"我被迫找到一个安全的地方保住自己的性命"，但没有透露自己究竟藏身何处。 自9月25日起，马达加斯加首都塔那那利佛等多座城市爆发大规模示威游行，以抗议频繁发生的缺水断 电。多地出现商铺、民宅、企业遭抢劫和纵火等暴力事件，造成人员伤亡及财产损失。起初抗议频繁断 电断水的示威游行后来演变为对现政权，特别是针对拉乔利纳的更广泛的抗议运动。9月29日，拉乔利 纳宣布解散政府，终止总理以及所有政府成员的职务，并代表政府向民众致歉，承认许多需求和期 望"未得到满足或充分考虑"。10月6日，拉乔利纳任命了新总理，强调新总理必须帮助该国"恢复秩 序"并重获民众信任，尽快解决供水供电问题。 然而，事态并未好转。10月11日，驻扎在塔那那利佛南部的一处军营发生哗变，部分军人加入示威游 行，并要求拉乔利纳 ...

本报记者 白云怡 由于近年来秘鲁第一副总统和第二副总统的职位一直空缺，总统职位由国会主席何塞·耶里接任。耶里 10日凌晨在就职仪式上说，其执政目标是领导一个和解政府。他同时表示，将针对日益加剧的不安全局 势采取强硬措施，"我们必须向犯罪宣战"。法新社称，博鲁阿尔特此次遭弹劾解职主要因其未能充分应 对犯罪问题。 据英国广播公司报道，耶里将领导秘鲁至2026年4月举行全国大选，并在同年7月正式移交总统职位。 公开资料显示，博鲁阿尔特自2021年起担任秘鲁第一副总统。2022年12月，时任秘鲁总统佩德罗·卡斯 蒂略试图解散国会而遭国会弹劾下台，博鲁阿尔特随后宣誓就任总统。 《商报》认为，这次弹劾之所以能以如此快的速度推动，主要是由于此前一些站在博鲁阿尔特一边的政 党也支持了弹劾动议，这也显示出秘鲁政治格局的迅速变化。随着这场权力更迭，秘鲁将迎来自2016年 以来的第七位总统，这再次凸显出该国前所未有的政治动荡，而秘鲁也将在极度分化与充满政治不确定 性的氛围中进入新阶段。 秘鲁国会当地时间9日晚召开特别全体会议，投票通过对总统博鲁阿尔特的弹劾动议，解除其总统职 务。据秘鲁《商报》报道，国会主席何塞·耶里随后于10日凌 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间10月10日晚，法国总统马克龙再次任命塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼担任总理。 爱丽舍宫在当晚发布的新闻公报中表示，"共和国总统任命塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼为总理，并委托他组建 新政府"。 勒科尔尼此前于9月9日被马克龙任命为总理，10月5日组阁，10月6日向马克龙请辞。 6日，在任仅27天、组阁未过24小时的勒科尔尼向马克龙辞职获批，成为法兰西第五共和国任期最短的 总理，也是马克龙任内下台的第七名总理。媒体分析认为，近期法国政局动荡持续，反映出法国政治妥 协缺失与经济增长疲软的困境下，内部矛盾的不断激化。 据法国央行预测，今年法国经济增长率约为0.7%。法国巴黎银行经济学家斯特凡·科利亚克（Stéphane Colliac）表示："如果没有政治危机，增长率本可能接近1%。"安联贸易公司（Allianz Trade）经济学家 马克西姆·达尔梅（Maxime Darmet）得出相同结论，也将增长损失估算为0.3个百分点。 专家分析认为，这一显著的经济增长放缓源于家庭和企业的极度谨慎。由于担心税收上升或公共补贴减 少，民众消费意愿降低，企业投资信心不足。 法国国家统计与经济研究所每月进行的家庭信心调查结果印 ...

来源：环球 【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡】秘鲁国会当地时间9日晚召开特别全体会议，投票通过对总统博鲁阿尔特 的弹劾动议，解除其总统职务。据秘鲁《商报》报道，国会主席何塞·耶里随后于10日凌晨宣誓就任总 统，任期至2026年7月26日。 综合《商报》、英国广播公司等媒体报道，9日，秘鲁国会多个党派议员提交了针对博鲁阿尔特的4项弹 劾动议提案。秘鲁国会随后召开特别全体会议，经投票同意审议弹劾动议，并传唤博鲁阿尔特于当晚出 席国会全体会议以行使辩护权。然而，博鲁阿尔特当晚未出席会议为自己辩护。据秘鲁国会网站消息， 国会最终以122票赞成通过弹劾动议。 由于近年来秘鲁第一副总统和第二副总统的职位一直空缺，总统职位由国会主席何塞·耶里接任。耶里 10日凌晨在就职仪式上说，其执政目标是领导一个和解政府。他同时表示，将针对日益加剧的不安全局 势采取强硬措施，"我们必须向犯罪宣战"。法新社称，博鲁阿尔特此次遭弹劾解职主要因其未能充分应 对犯罪问题。 据英国广播公司报道，耶里将领导秘鲁至2026年4月举行全国大选，并在同年7月正式移交总统职位。 公开资料显示，博鲁阿尔特自2021年起担任秘鲁第一副总统。2022年12月，时任秘 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surpassed the $4,000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, with strong market confidence in bullish positions on gold, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is targeting the next significant threshold of $5,000 per ounce for gold, driven by large and sustained debt levels, diversification of foreign exchange reserves by central banks, and a weakening dollar [1] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to geopolitical events, such as a potential lasting ceasefire in the Middle East or Ukraine, but the core drivers for gold remain unchanged in the medium term [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Political turmoil in France and Japan has further increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Core Viewpoint - The political turmoil in France is intensifying, leading to increased concerns among investors regarding the country's fiscal stability, as evidenced by significant sell-offs in the bond market and a decline in the euro against the dollar [1][4][6]. Group 1: Political Developments - The newly appointed French Defense Minister Bruno Le Maire announced his resignation just one day after taking office, following the resignation of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne [3][4]. - Prime Minister Borne's resignation was attributed to the inability to form a government due to entrenched political divisions among various parties [4][8]. - The political instability has prompted discussions about potential new elections, with a 57% probability of early elections being indicated by betting markets [14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the political upheaval, the yield on French 10-year government bonds surged past 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 European debt crisis [1][4]. - The spread between French and German bond yields reached its highest level of the year, exceeding 89 basis points [4]. - The euro has depreciated, falling below the 1.170 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns over France's political situation [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - France's public deficit is projected to reach 5.8% of GDP in 2024, the highest in the Eurozone, with total debt at 113% of GDP, significantly above EU regulations [15][16]. - The government plans to tighten control over social and local government spending, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.7% by 2026 and approximately 3% by 2029 [17]. - Analysts warn that the resignation of the Prime Minister could lead to further instability, potentially forcing President Macron to resign, which would exacerbate the crisis [18].

Group 1 - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has raised concerns about potential political instability in France, leading to significant market reactions [1] - The French CAC40 index fell by 1.9%, marking the largest decline since late August, while a stock basket index tracking companies with over 30% domestic revenue dropped by 3.7% [1] - Major French banks, including Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas, led declines in European banking stocks due to a surge in 10-year government bond yields [1] Group 2 - The spread of French government bonds over German bonds, a key indicator of fiscal risk, has widened to over 89 basis points, the highest level since the end of 2024 [1] - The newly appointed cabinet by President Emmanuel Macron faced widespread criticism just a day before Lecornu's resignation, indicating potential challenges in governance [1] - Market reactions were characterized as typical, with declines in domestic stocks, banking shares, and other vulnerable sectors, although not indicative of widespread panic according to market analysts [1]