投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：区间震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 资金止盈意愿与政策利好预期相 互博弈 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 17226 亿元，较上日缩量 200 亿 元。目前股指处于政策利好预期发酵节奏与获利资金止盈节 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be mainly in an interval oscillation, with intense short - term games. The medium - term view is that it is strong. The overall reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weaken, and as the stock index approaches the previous high, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward trend of the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Strong | Bullish | Interval Oscillation | The game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1930.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the short term, there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, as long as the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remain unchanged, the upward trend of the stock index will continue [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 资金止盈意愿与政策利好预期相 互博弈 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周各股指均呈现震荡整理的走势，上周五股指高位回落大幅收跌。随着昨日股指反弹至 前期高点附近，叠加最新公布的国内投资消费数据走弱以及海外 AI 科技股票降温，部分投资者止 盈意愿上升，股指技术性回调。目前政策利好预期与资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. Policy利好 expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market form strong support for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index, but in the short term, the profit - taking intention of funds and the weakening of policy incremental signals lead to the need for the stock index to consolidate technically [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded oscillating yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2065.7 billion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy利好 expectations and capital inflow into the stock market support the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. The policy will stabilize the macro - demand expectation and support technological innovation, benefiting the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes. In the short term, the policy incremental signals are weakening, and the profit - taking intention of funds is rising, so the stock index needs to consolidate technically, and the Shanghai Composite Index may oscillate around 4000 points [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals weaken, and the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises with the increase in stock valuations, so the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation. In the long run, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated slightly. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1944 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market is in an oscillating market with mixed long and short factors. The fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game, limiting both the upward and downward momentum of the stock index. In the long run, policy benefit expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index, especially as next year is the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan". However, in the short term, the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation due to the weakening of incremental policy signals and the rise in profit - taking intention [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, mainly due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. The mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market fell with increased volume yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, showing weak chasing - up sentiment and rising profit - taking willingness of funds. The marginal effect of easing external uncertainty risks decreased, and the policy - favorable expectations for technology stocks were gradually digested. There is still a possibility of technical correction in the stock index in the future, and the short - term trend is mainly wide - range oscillation [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure with weak domestic demand and fluctuating sentiment, while exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be prone to rise due to certain expectations, despite pressure from steel mills' profit margins. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as production, demand, and external trade frictions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to recover but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory decreased. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain still fermented repeatedly. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. The market sentiment cooled, and the futures prices were under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. The global supply was strong, and the domestic arrival volume declined from a high level. Port inventory increased significantly this week. On the demand side, molten iron production declined from a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to shrink. With the end of the peak season and the contraction of steel mill profits, there was still pressure for molten iron production cuts. The market had certain expectations for policy benefits, and sentiment improved. It is expected that the short - term trend will be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose today. Molten iron production remained high, and the steel - making profit level was average, suppressing the coke price increase rate. The second round of price increases for coking started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers purchased on a small - scale as needed and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices. The coke futures prices were at a premium, and the price was likely to be prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Recently, there was political turmoil in Mongolia, and the market was worried about the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and transaction prices increased. Terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. With safety inspections approaching in major coal - producing areas, production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level, providing support for raw materials. However, steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices [6] Silicomanganese - Today's silicomanganese prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The impact of external trade frictions should be continuously monitored [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. The impact of external trade frictions should be concerned [8]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with an overall view of wide - range volatility due to the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. In the short term, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range volatility as the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a wide - range volatility view, and the core logic is the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. Yesterday, each stock index showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating cautious market sentiment. The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia have reduced risk - aversion sentiment and improved market sentiment. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks and the marginal slowdown of the expected incremental policy benefits at the end of the year, there is still a need for capital to take profits. The game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5]