2025 年 07 月 22 日 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16960 | 0.83% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2011.5 | 1.72% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 44659 | 12371 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 9912 | 1265 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 44870 | -5711 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 136203 | 105 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -60 | -35 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -23.5 | 5.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -35 | -10 | 进口升贴水 ...

第二季度中国航运业的热度相比第一季度有所上升，但三季度或将有所回调。 报告预测，第三季度集装箱运输企业的景气指数为113.63点，比第二季度下降11.63点，下降至相对景气 区间；集装箱运输企业的信心指数为111.25点，下降至相对景气区间。 上海国际航运研究中心日前发布的2025年第二季度中国航运景气报告显示，第二季度中国航运景气指数 为120.81点，比第一季度上涨14.77点，升至较为景气区间；中国航运信心指数为123.22点，比第一季度 上升12.89点，由相对景气区间升至较为景气区间。 业内专家认为，第二季度中国航运景气指数和信心指数双双呈现上升趋势，体现出航运业市场向好，供 需关系逐渐改善，企业经营活力良好。这为第三季度航运业的恢复与增长奠定了较好基础。 尽管如此，当前航运市场并未彻底摆脱外部扰动风险，未来走势仍受全球贸易格局及政策导向变化的影 响。中国航运景气指数编制室主任周德全表示，虽然航运市场近期持续呈现出一定的向好迹象，但受新 一轮船舶运力增长以及地缘政治冲突和自然灾害事件的影响，市场将迎来更大的不确定性。 中国航运景气调查显示，第三季度中国航运景气指数预计为108.99点，比第二季度下降 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美参议院通过削减支出法案两党争斗或升级 ·特朗普将为美国退休市场开放加密货币投资 ·美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6% ·英国就业市场持续低迷 ·6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7% 【市场资讯】 ·美国国会参议院17日凌晨通过白宫提出的削减90亿美元对外援助及公共广播经费的法案，引发两党争 斗进一步升级。 ·日本财务省公布的数据显示，6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7%。受此影响，当月日本对美国出 口额同比下降11.4%至1.71万亿日元，连续三个月同比下降，且降幅呈现扩大之势。 ·俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃17日在例行记者会上表示，俄罗斯代表团愿前往土耳其伊斯坦布尔与乌 克兰进行第三轮谈判。 【全球市场动态】 ·美国国会众议院以308票赞成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》 （Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。该法案将提交美国总统特朗普，预计将由特 朗普签署成为法律。此外，众议院还以294票赞成、134票反对的结果通过了第二项范围更广的加密货币 市场结构法案《清晰法案》（Clarity Act），该法案将提交参议院审议，该提案旨在 ...

Core Insights - The return rate of art investments is currently at a 70-year low, with projections indicating a continued decline in 2023 and 2024, reaching -0.9% and -1.4% respectively [2][5] - In contrast, the S&P 500 index has shown consistent double-digit growth annually since 2018, highlighting a significant disparity in long-term returns between art and stocks [2] - Despite the current downturn, there are signs of market recovery, suggesting a potential historic opportunity for art collectors [2] Art Market Indices - The newly released MM Intercontinental Art Price Index shows that the Asian, African, and Oceanian art index has increased from 1 at the end of 2000 to 6.21 by spring 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% [5] - The European art index has risen from 1 to 1.73 over the same period, with a much lower CAGR of 2.3% [5] - The American art index has grown from 1 to 2.88, reflecting a CAGR of 4.4%, but still shows a 15% decline from its peak in 2021 [5] Chinese Art Market Performance - The MM Chinese Art Price Index has shown a significant increase from 1 at the end of 2000 to 8.55 by spring 2025, with a CAGR of 9.2% [6] - After a decline of 48.2% from its peak in 2020, the Chinese art market rebounded with a 9% increase in spring 2025 [7] - The performance of Chinese art has outpaced Impressionist and contemporary art indices, which have CAGRs of 3.2% and 5.1% respectively [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The MM Chinese Art Sentiment Index indicates a recovery in collector confidence for the autumn 2024 auction, although the spring 2025 market remains subdued [8] - The sentiment index has reached new lows in spring 2020 and spring 2024, reflecting the impact of various factors on market dynamics [8] - Future pricing of Chinese art is expected to fluctuate as major asset classes like real estate and stocks undergo revaluation [7]

Group 1 - The overall restaurant industry prosperity index in June 2025 slightly decreased to 104.1, down 0.1% from May's 104.2 [5][3] - The decline in the index was influenced by various factors, including seasonal changes and consumer behavior adjustments [8][4] - The index for third-tier and below cities saw the largest decline at 5.4%, followed by second-tier cities at 4.6%, while first-tier cities experienced a slight increase of 1.2% [12] Group 2 - The "Red Restaurant Index Top 100" for June 2025 saw 36 brands rise in rankings, 33 fall, and 30 remain unchanged, with one new entry [18] - The top three brands in the index were Haidilao, KFC (China), and Luckin Coffee, followed closely by McDonald's (China) and others [20][18] Group 3 - In June 2025, the snack fast food category showed significant growth, with its prosperity index rising to 103.7, an increase of 5.4% [16] - Conversely, the beverage category's index fell to 116.5, down 2.2%, while the index for hot pot and barbecue categories were 93.5 and 81.9, respectively, both showing declines [16] Group 4 - The restaurant industry saw active financing events in June 2025, with a total of 10 financing occurrences, marking a significant increase from the previous month [59] - Notable IPO movements included the submission of a prospectus by Banu International Holdings for a main board listing and the listing of Haitian Flavoring and Food Company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [62][58] Group 5 - The restaurant industry is witnessing a trend of local brand expansion and international market penetration, with brands innovating through unique store formats and digital models [55] - Significant industry events included the opening of Haidilao's first fresh-cut beef theme store in Guangzhou and Luckin Coffee's first stores in the U.S. [61][62]

一、房地产开发投资完成情况 1—6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资35770亿元，下降10.4%。 三、房地产开发企业到位资金情况 1—6月份，房地产开发企业到位资金50202亿元，同比下降6.2%。其中，国内贷款8245亿元，增长0.6%；利用外资17亿元，增长25.4%；自筹资金17544亿 元，下降7.2%；定金及预收款14781亿元，下降7.5%；个人按揭贷款6847亿元，下降11.4%。 1—6月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积633321万平方米，同比下降9.1%。其中，住宅施工面积441240万平方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积30364万平方 米，下降20.0%。其中，住宅新开工面积22288万平方米，下降19.6%。房屋竣工面积22567万平方米，下降14.8%。其中，住宅竣工面积16266万平方米，下 降15.5%。 二、新建商品房销售和待售情况 1—6月份，新建商品房销售面积45851万平方米，同比下降3.5%；其中住宅销售面积下降3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元，下降5.5%；其中住宅销售额 下降5.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve an operating income of 186 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 38.19% compared to 300.90 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -131 million yuan, which is a larger loss compared to -87.28 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also expected to be -131 million yuan [3][6] Group 2 - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [4] - The previous year's operating income was 300.90 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -87.28 million yuan [8] - The previous year's earnings per share were -0.06 yuan [9] Group 3 - The main reasons for the expected loss in the first half of 2025 include the impact of increased U.S. tariff barriers, more trade restrictions, and regional conflicts, leading to a significant slowdown in global trade volume growth [10] - The container industry prosperity index has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year, with new container inventory levels remaining historically high [10] - The average sales price of container flooring has decreased by about 25% compared to the same period last year, and the contracted sales volume has declined by approximately 2.3% [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses various sectors including small metals, PCB storage, wind power, insurance, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, military industry, gaming, communication equipment, and traditional defensive sectors like insurance and electricity. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Industry Recovery Indicators**: The overall industry prosperity index showed a rebound in June after declines in April and May, indicating a potential continuation of fundamental recovery in the second half of the year [1][5][19]. 2. **Focus on Specific Sectors**: Attention is drawn to sectors likely to see improved performance in Q2, including small metals, PCB storage, wind power insurance, and independent-driven cycles like pharmaceuticals and military [1][5]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The export chain faces downward pressure, particularly in appliances, engineering machinery, and consumer electronics [1][5]. 4. **Valuation and Market Strategy**: A focus on sectors with low PE/PB ratios and non-crowded public holdings is recommended, while high valuations may be tolerated in high-prosperity sectors like gaming [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell" strategy is suggested, with offensive investments in wind power, photovoltaics, gaming, communication equipment, and small metals, while defensive investments shift towards insurance, agriculture, and electricity [1][9]. 6. **Wind Power Sector Outlook**: The wind power sector shows significant year-on-year growth in new installations, with expectations for continued growth into 2025, although a potential decline is anticipated in 2026 [1][11]. 7. **Photovoltaic Sector Concerns**: The photovoltaic sector has shown some recovery, but concerns remain regarding overseas exports and supply-side pressures, particularly with high inventory levels [1][12]. 8. **Gaming Industry Growth**: The gaming industry is experiencing an upward product cycle, with a record number of game approvals in June, indicating sustained performance growth [1][13]. 9. **Communication Equipment Performance**: The communication equipment sector is benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, leading to improved industry conditions [1][14]. 10. **Small Metals and Aerospace**: Small metals like rare earths and tungsten are seeing price increases due to improved demand in military and new energy sectors, while aerospace equipment is also showing signs of recovery [1][15]. 11. **Traditional Defensive Sectors**: The insurance sector is evolving in both liability and investment aspects, while the electricity sector is benefiting from improved electricity consumption growth [1][16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Global Factors**: Global markets are showing improved risk appetite due to a reduction in tariff concerns, which is positively impacting the A-share market [1][18][22]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: The real estate sector is performing well, driven by urban renewal expectations, while the banking sector has shown volatility [1][19][21]. 3. **Funding and Leverage Trends**: There has been a significant outflow from broad-based ETFs, but leverage financing has rebounded, indicating a mixed funding environment [1][22]. 4. **Future Market Outlook**: Short-term sentiment remains positive, but potential volatility is expected due to upcoming events, with a more optimistic view for Q4 performance [1][24]. 5. **Key Themes to Watch**: The themes of anti-involution and urban renewal are highlighted as significant areas of focus, with potential benefits for related sectors [1][25].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 7 月 12 日）为 5.8%，与上周修订值 5.8%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看，消费下行，固投整体走弱，出口韧性尚可。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际回升，工业品价格回暖。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 宏 ...

澳大利亚6月NAB商业景气指数 9，前值0。 ...