【资讯导读】 ·美参议院通过削减支出法案两党争斗或升级 ·特朗普将为美国退休市场开放加密货币投资 ·美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6% ·英国就业市场持续低迷 ·6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7% 【市场资讯】 ·美国国会参议院17日凌晨通过白宫提出的削减90亿美元对外援助及公共广播经费的法案，引发两党争 斗进一步升级。 ·日本财务省公布的数据显示，6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7%。受此影响，当月日本对美国出 口额同比下降11.4%至1.71万亿日元，连续三个月同比下降，且降幅呈现扩大之势。 ·俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃17日在例行记者会上表示，俄罗斯代表团愿前往土耳其伊斯坦布尔与乌 克兰进行第三轮谈判。 【全球市场动态】 ·美国国会众议院以308票赞成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》 （Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。该法案将提交美国总统特朗普，预计将由特 朗普签署成为法律。此外，众议院还以294票赞成、134票反对的结果通过了第二项范围更广的加密货币 市场结构法案《清晰法案》（Clarity Act），该法案将提交参议院审议，该提案旨在 ...

艺术品回报率正处在70年一遇的低迷状态。 艺术品长期回报率低迷 MM三大洲际艺术品价格指数是此次发布会新发布的指数。 7月16日，长江商学院联合意大利博科尼管理学院举行MM艺术品价格指数发布会，长江商学院金融学教授梅建平在发布中华艺术品2025年春拍指数时给出 了上述判断。 综合全球三大拍卖行所有重复销售数据，计算1938年至2024年的10年期滚动年化美元回报率后，梅建平发现，艺术品的回报率在2023年和2024年触及谷底， 分别为-0.9%和-1.4%。 "要找到类似糟糕的长期回报，得追溯到1954年，当时艺术市场不仅停滞，甚至对收藏家来说还出现了长期持有亏损。"梅建平说，这与美国股市（以标普 500指数为代表）形成了鲜明对比。自2018年以来，标普500指数每年都实现了两位数的增长。 艺术品与股票在长期回报上存在巨大差异，艺术品价值总体上处于几代人未见的低迷状态。 "三大洲际艺术品指数显示出部分市场复苏的信号，这表明全球艺术品市场正在发生解冻。考虑到过去25年技术发展创造的巨额财富，现在可能是收藏艺术 品的历史性机会。"梅建平说。 其数据来源于苏富比、佳士得和菲利普斯三大拍卖行在纽约、伦敦、上海、北京、 ...

Group 1 - The overall restaurant industry prosperity index in June 2025 slightly decreased to 104.1, down 0.1% from May's 104.2 [5][3] - The decline in the index was influenced by various factors, including seasonal changes and consumer behavior adjustments [8][4] - The index for third-tier and below cities saw the largest decline at 5.4%, followed by second-tier cities at 4.6%, while first-tier cities experienced a slight increase of 1.2% [12] Group 2 - The "Red Restaurant Index Top 100" for June 2025 saw 36 brands rise in rankings, 33 fall, and 30 remain unchanged, with one new entry [18] - The top three brands in the index were Haidilao, KFC (China), and Luckin Coffee, followed closely by McDonald's (China) and others [20][18] Group 3 - In June 2025, the snack fast food category showed significant growth, with its prosperity index rising to 103.7, an increase of 5.4% [16] - Conversely, the beverage category's index fell to 116.5, down 2.2%, while the index for hot pot and barbecue categories were 93.5 and 81.9, respectively, both showing declines [16] Group 4 - The restaurant industry saw active financing events in June 2025, with a total of 10 financing occurrences, marking a significant increase from the previous month [59] - Notable IPO movements included the submission of a prospectus by Banu International Holdings for a main board listing and the listing of Haitian Flavoring and Food Company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [62][58] Group 5 - The restaurant industry is witnessing a trend of local brand expansion and international market penetration, with brands innovating through unique store formats and digital models [55] - Significant industry events included the opening of Haidilao's first fresh-cut beef theme store in Guangzhou and Luckin Coffee's first stores in the U.S. [61][62]

一、房地产开发投资完成情况 1—6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资35770亿元，下降10.4%。 三、房地产开发企业到位资金情况 1—6月份，房地产开发企业到位资金50202亿元，同比下降6.2%。其中，国内贷款8245亿元，增长0.6%；利用外资17亿元，增长25.4%；自筹资金17544亿 元，下降7.2%；定金及预收款14781亿元，下降7.5%；个人按揭贷款6847亿元，下降11.4%。 1—6月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积633321万平方米，同比下降9.1%。其中，住宅施工面积441240万平方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积30364万平方 米，下降20.0%。其中，住宅新开工面积22288万平方米，下降19.6%。房屋竣工面积22567万平方米，下降14.8%。其中，住宅竣工面积16266万平方米，下 降15.5%。 二、新建商品房销售和待售情况 1—6月份，新建商品房销售面积45851万平方米，同比下降3.5%；其中住宅销售面积下降3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元，下降5.5%；其中住宅销售额 下降5.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve an operating income of 186 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 38.19% compared to 300.90 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -131 million yuan, which is a larger loss compared to -87.28 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also expected to be -131 million yuan [3][6] Group 2 - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [4] - The previous year's operating income was 300.90 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -87.28 million yuan [8] - The previous year's earnings per share were -0.06 yuan [9] Group 3 - The main reasons for the expected loss in the first half of 2025 include the impact of increased U.S. tariff barriers, more trade restrictions, and regional conflicts, leading to a significant slowdown in global trade volume growth [10] - The container industry prosperity index has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year, with new container inventory levels remaining historically high [10] - The average sales price of container flooring has decreased by about 25% compared to the same period last year, and the contracted sales volume has declined by approximately 2.3% [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses various sectors including small metals, PCB storage, wind power, insurance, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, military industry, gaming, communication equipment, and traditional defensive sectors like insurance and electricity. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Industry Recovery Indicators**: The overall industry prosperity index showed a rebound in June after declines in April and May, indicating a potential continuation of fundamental recovery in the second half of the year [1][5][19]. 2. **Focus on Specific Sectors**: Attention is drawn to sectors likely to see improved performance in Q2, including small metals, PCB storage, wind power insurance, and independent-driven cycles like pharmaceuticals and military [1][5]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The export chain faces downward pressure, particularly in appliances, engineering machinery, and consumer electronics [1][5]. 4. **Valuation and Market Strategy**: A focus on sectors with low PE/PB ratios and non-crowded public holdings is recommended, while high valuations may be tolerated in high-prosperity sectors like gaming [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell" strategy is suggested, with offensive investments in wind power, photovoltaics, gaming, communication equipment, and small metals, while defensive investments shift towards insurance, agriculture, and electricity [1][9]. 6. **Wind Power Sector Outlook**: The wind power sector shows significant year-on-year growth in new installations, with expectations for continued growth into 2025, although a potential decline is anticipated in 2026 [1][11]. 7. **Photovoltaic Sector Concerns**: The photovoltaic sector has shown some recovery, but concerns remain regarding overseas exports and supply-side pressures, particularly with high inventory levels [1][12]. 8. **Gaming Industry Growth**: The gaming industry is experiencing an upward product cycle, with a record number of game approvals in June, indicating sustained performance growth [1][13]. 9. **Communication Equipment Performance**: The communication equipment sector is benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, leading to improved industry conditions [1][14]. 10. **Small Metals and Aerospace**: Small metals like rare earths and tungsten are seeing price increases due to improved demand in military and new energy sectors, while aerospace equipment is also showing signs of recovery [1][15]. 11. **Traditional Defensive Sectors**: The insurance sector is evolving in both liability and investment aspects, while the electricity sector is benefiting from improved electricity consumption growth [1][16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Global Factors**: Global markets are showing improved risk appetite due to a reduction in tariff concerns, which is positively impacting the A-share market [1][18][22]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: The real estate sector is performing well, driven by urban renewal expectations, while the banking sector has shown volatility [1][19][21]. 3. **Funding and Leverage Trends**: There has been a significant outflow from broad-based ETFs, but leverage financing has rebounded, indicating a mixed funding environment [1][22]. 4. **Future Market Outlook**: Short-term sentiment remains positive, but potential volatility is expected due to upcoming events, with a more optimistic view for Q4 performance [1][24]. 5. **Key Themes to Watch**: The themes of anti-involution and urban renewal are highlighted as significant areas of focus, with potential benefits for related sectors [1][25].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 7 月 12 日）为 5.8%，与上周修订值 5.8%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看，消费下行，固投整体走弱，出口韧性尚可。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际回升，工业品价格回暖。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 宏 ...

澳大利亚6月NAB商业景气指数 9，前值0。 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 量化周报 市场未来有望继续上行 市场未来有望继续上行。本周（ 6.30-7.4），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，基础化工、电力设备及新能源确认日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由 于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创 业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上 涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，市场未来有望 继续上行。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成 指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨 中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开 始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，A 股景气指数为 21.59，相 比 2023 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery with a stable increase in the road logistics price index, driven by improved market demand and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Index Trends - As of June 2025, the China Road Logistics Price Index stands at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1]. - The whole vehicle index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transport, is at 105.7 points, up 0.09% from May and 3.22% year-on-year [1]. - The less-than-truckload (LTL) indices show mixed results, with the light cargo index at 102.6 points (down 0.04% from May, up 1.4% year-on-year) and the heavy cargo index at 105.7 points (up 0.08% from May, up 3.33% year-on-year) [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for bulk commodities remains stable, contributing to a steady increase in both whole vehicle and heavy cargo price indices [2]. - E-commerce activities, particularly during holiday promotions, have significantly boosted light cargo market performance, leading to a narrower decline in the light cargo index [2]. - The logistics prosperity index for June is reported at 50.8%, indicating a continuous expansion in the logistics sector for four consecutive months [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of policy measures is expected to support steady domestic market demand and positive production expectations [3]. - Seasonal fluctuations are anticipated in the third quarter, influenced by factors such as summer travel peaks and adverse weather conditions [3].