Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of performance that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [4][12]. Core Insights - The tourism industry is expected to return to stable growth, supported by favorable policies anticipated in 2026, with both sentiment and fundamentals improving [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in demand for hotels and scenic spots, with a focus on structured opportunities in the market [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of segment differentiation, as various sub-sectors within the industry are expected to perform differently based on their fundamentals and seasonal dynamics [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-sectors benefiting from tourism, as well as those showing signs of recovery and new consumer trends. Recommended stocks include China Duty Free Group (601888, Buy), among others [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the overall market, represented by the CSI 300 index, increased by 1.9%, while the consumer services sector saw a rise of 1.8% during the week of December 22-26 [7]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free shopping in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan during the week of December 18-24, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [7]. Scenic Spots and Ice-Snow Tourism - The report anticipates a stable growth return for scenic spots, particularly those with regional and thematic attractions, as evidenced by increased bookings for ice-snow tourism [7]. Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - The report maintains a positive outlook on OTAs, predicting continued growth driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the aging population's travel needs [7]. Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is showing signs of recovery, with data indicating a slight increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) in October, suggesting that hotel profitability is at a bottoming phase [7]. New Consumption Trends - The report identifies opportunities in new consumption, particularly in affordable dining options and brands that cater to changing consumer preferences [7].

一、服务消费政策主要方向，餐饮有望重点受益 智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称，推荐餐饮业短期扩张与长期稳健低估标的，关注经营改善与 扩张期高估标的。该行认为需重点关注的标的有：1)凭借长期持续迭代的运营能力具备穿越周期能力的 百胜中国(09987);2)门店扩张期且具备较强团队及供应链运营能力的小菜园(00999);3)处于调整改革期但 团队仍有较强执行力的海底捞(06862);4)赛道空间大且门店高势能扩张的达势股份(01405)。 西部证券主要观点如下： 日本头部餐企经营周期长，快餐连锁业态占比高，正餐、居酒屋亦跑出龙头。该行梳理下行期日本餐饮 板块三大变化为：1)极致性价比与消费者体验的平衡，价格的极致压缩需以维护甚至提高消费者体验为 前提，对餐企战略平衡与执行能力均提出较高要求。2)供应链与门店极致效率带来高店效，但我国标准 化复杂与困难程度更高。3)多品类融合形成餐饮巨头，便于实现供应链协同、运营能力复用及多消费群 体触及。 消费提振重点明确，"服务消费"政策持续加码。今年9月商务部等提出扩大服务消费5大方向19条具体措 施，餐饮为服务消费季活动核心内容。 风险提示：食品安全风险;消费力持续下 ...

酒店行业变化更新 20251209 摘要 服务消费政策逐渐明确，如假期灵活性提升，预计将显著提升 2026 年 第二季度旅游需求，尤其春假在全国范围推广的可能性高，将直接利好 酒店及相关产业。 维持对 2025 年第四季度和 2026 年第一季度酒店板块景气度环比继续 改善的判断，主要基于需求相对稳定和基数降低带来的降幅收窄，华住 等数据显示已接近回正或正增长。 酒店行业整体供给增速预计不会放缓，主要集中在小型物业，大型物业 增速趋缓，核心区域优质供给相对理性，连锁集团通过提价维持利润率， 具备较强价格定价权。 湖北国资委和湖北文旅入主君亭酒店后，市场预期通过注入轻资产、高 利润业务如酒店管理业务来提升业绩，而非短期内注入重资产，直营店 已恢复正常盈利状态。 君亭酒店集团在国际化方面与精选国际和希尔顿合作，推出凯逸和凯富 等新产品，装修成本和回收期均优于竞争对手，加盟策略采取差异化打 法，对加盟商让利。 Q&A 近期酒店行业板块波动的主要原因是什么？ 酒店行业板块近期的波动主要归因于政策预期的变化。市场此前对服务消费领 域的政策有较高预期，尤其是在政治局会议前，投资者希望看到更多关于服务 消费相关政策的加码。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on November 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index rebounding into positive territory, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index had turned positive [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, tourism, forestry, and power grid equipment sectors saw significant gains, while gaming, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] - The Hainan sector has been strong recently, with a notable increase of over 6% on the day, reaching a new high in over seven years [3] Notable Stocks - Haima Automobile hit the daily limit up for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a ten-year high [3] - Haixia Co. also quickly reached its daily limit up, achieving a historical high [3] - Caesar Travel, Yingxin Development, Dongbai Group, and Palm Holdings saw their stock prices surge, with several hitting the daily limit up [7] Policy Impact - The implementation of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy on November 1 showed immediate effects, with a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day compared to the previous day [5] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close by December 18, 2025, expanding the range of zero-tariff goods significantly, which is expected to enhance policy benefits [5] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities believes the closure will significantly impact trade and help Hainan accelerate its development as an international tourism consumption center, benefiting various stakeholders in the tourism industry [6] - The announcement of holiday arrangements for 2026 has led to a surge in travel bookings, indicating strong consumer interest in travel during the upcoming holiday periods [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index turning positive, while the Shenzhen Component Index found strong support at 13,000 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3962.04, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13155.6, down 0.15% [2] Sector Performance - Hainan Free Trade Zone and tourism sectors saw significant gains, with Hainan stocks rising over 6%, reaching a 7-year high [3] - Game, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and quantum technology sectors experienced declines [1] Hainan Free Trade Zone Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to fully close its borders by December 18, 2025, expanding the list of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 to 6,637 items, indicating a significant policy benefit [5] - The implementation of the new duty-free shopping policy on November 1 led to a 6.1% increase in sales on the first day, with total shopping amounting to 78.549 million yuan [3][5] Tourism Sector Insights - The tourism sector continues to strengthen, with stocks like Caesar Travel and Yingxin Development hitting their daily limits [7] - The announcement of the 2026 holiday schedule led to a surge in travel inquiries, with a 200% increase in consultations for European travel [9] Investment Opportunities - Central enterprises are increasingly collaborating with the Hainan provincial government, covering various sectors and indicating strong investment potential in the region [5] - The trade aspect of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center, benefiting related businesses [6]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a rise of over 5%, currently up 5.17% at HKD 1.83, with a trading volume of HKD 219 million [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, suggesting the exploration of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, and encouraging supply-side product optimization [1] - CICC anticipates good booking data for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, expecting a positive performance in leisure travel demand [1] Group 2 - Guozheng International recently published a report highlighting the company's active involvement in the ice and snow economy, including the acquisition of a 75% stake in Jilin Songhua Lake International Resort Development Co., Ltd. and Beijing Wanbingxue Sports Co., Ltd. [1] - The related business is expected to be consolidated in November, which is projected to bring additional revenue and profit to the company [1] - The extended 8-day holiday period during National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is anticipated to lead to rapid growth in the tourism market, thereby driving business growth for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices experienced a rebound today, with significant trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 24,029 billion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The stock indices are expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with the current implied volatility of options remaining within a normal range [1] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments recently issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures across five areas to stimulate consumer demand [1] - The development of service consumption is anticipated to create new jobs and drive resident consumption, forming a positive cycle between supply and demand [1] Economic Indicators - August data on credit and inflation showed weakness, with a slowdown in consumption growth and poor performance in the real sector's demand [1] - There is a strong expectation for the introduction of policies to stabilize demand, with key developments anticipated in October [1] Funding Environment - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase in July and August, with high financing balances indicating that the stock market continues to attract incremental capital [1] - However, due to significant valuation increases in some stocks, there is a tendency for profit-taking, leading to short-term technical adjustment pressure on the stock indices [1] Investment Strategy - Given the mid to long-term upward trend of the stock indices, it is suggested to continue holding bull spreads or ratio spreads [1]

Economic Overview - In August, China's economy showed stability in production demand, employment, and prices, with new growth drivers being cultivated, indicating a steady and progressive development trend [1] - The service industry business activity index reached a year-high of 50.5%, while the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing the average level of large-scale industries [1] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have shown significant results, with retail sales growth for furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies exceeding 14% [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), ending an eight-month downward trend, while the decline in industrial enterprise profits has also narrowed [1] Future Outlook - The current economic situation is characterized by a transition from old to new growth drivers and an improvement in quality and efficiency [1] - With the implementation of replacement subsidies and the focus on service consumption policies, along with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, domestic demand is expected to continue improving [1] - Future policies will focus on structural issues to consolidate new growth drivers and stimulate effective demand, promoting a sustained economic recovery [1] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on low-entry rotation opportunities in high-prosperity sectors, specifically in energy storage, new energy, and service consumption, as well as sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued 19 measures in five aspects to expand service consumption on September 16. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%, inventory slightly decreased, and apparent demand significantly increased. Overall, the rebound of steel prices affects terminal demand, but the new round of policy benefits in the short term still support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 axis, and the red column turns green. Operationally, go long on pullbacks, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] - HC main contract open interest: 1,391,462 lots, up 523 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -126,409 lots, up 6,479 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 60,941 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 222 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - HC main contract basis: 60 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 792 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-first-class metallurgical coke: 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 13,849.47 million tons, up 24.15 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.76 million tons, up 3.10 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 633.61 million tons, up 10.07 million tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 128.95 million tons, down 7.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.85%, up 3.47% [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.2%, up 4.43% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 325.14 million tons, up 10.90 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.06%, up 2.79% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil plant inventory: 80.88 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2] - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 292.44 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 901 million tons, down 38 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2] - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's air conditioner production in August 2025 was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; the cumulative production from January to August was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [2] 3.7 Key Focus - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2]