Key Points Summary Hot News - Trump said he could talk to Iran but didn't want a cease - fire currently, and was confident the Strait of Hormuz would "automatically" reopen. He criticized NATO's performance on the Iran issue. US military officials prepared for deploying ground troops to Iran. Iran threatened to strike US and Israeli "evil officials", and the Yemeni Houthi rebels might block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. Switzerland suspended exporting war materials to the US [2] - South Korea and Bahrain joined the "Joint Statement on the Strait of Hormuz" issued by 7 countries including the UK, France, etc., which condemned Iran's de - facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2] - China's March LPR remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months, with the 1 - year at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus at 3.5% [2] - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium with pig - farming enterprises, requiring them to implement production - capacity control measures, adjust the inventory of breeding sows and control the number of pig slaughter [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening and closing order quantities of platinum and palladium futures contracts from March 24. The daily price limit was adjusted to 17%, and the trading margin standard to 19% [3] Focus Commodities - Focus on urea, coking coal, liquefied gas, plastic, and PVC [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.48%, precious metals 26.75%, oilseeds 8.96%, soft commodities 2.42%, non - ferrous metals 22.49%, coal - coking - steel - ore 9.36%, energy 8.46%, chemicals 15.09%, grains 1.05%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.95% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.24%, a monthly decline of 4.94%, and an annual decline of 0.30%. Other equity indices also had different levels of decline or increase [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had slight declines [6] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index rose 0.80% daily, 17.41% monthly, and 22.87% annually. WTI crude oil had significant increases, while London spot gold and LME copper declined [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose, and the CBOE volatility index had a large increase [6] Major Commodity Trends - The trends of major commodities are presented, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold [7]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for international copper futures contracts starting from February 9, 2026 [1] - The price fluctuation limit for listed international copper futures contracts will be adjusted to 10% [1] - The margin requirement for maintaining positions will be set at 11%, while the general position margin requirement will be adjusted to 12% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple exchanges have made significant adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts, indicating a response to market volatility and aiming to stabilize trading conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Contract Adjustments - From February 5, 2026, the price limit for futures contracts on fuel oil, asphalt, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber will be adjusted to 9%, with margin requirements set at 10% for hedging and 11% for general positions [1]. - The price limit for futures contracts on pulp and printing paper will be adjusted to 7%, with margin requirements of 8% for hedging and 9% for general positions [1]. - The price limit for silver futures will be set at 19%, with margin requirements of 20% for hedging and 21% for general positions starting February 4, 2026 [1]. - For crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures, the price limit will also be 9%, with similar margin requirements as above [1]. - Platinum and palladium futures will have a price limit of 20% and a margin requirement of 22% starting February 5, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Margin Adjustments for Specific Contracts - The margin level for Ag(T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 26% to 23%, with the price limit changing from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [2]. - For Au(T+D) and related contracts, the margin ratio will increase from 16% to 17%, with the price limit changing from 15% to 16% starting February 4, 2026 [2]. - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts will be adjusted from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per contract [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - On February 3, international gold and silver prices experienced a significant rebound, with gold rising nearly 6% to approximately $4,930 per ounce and silver increasing over 12% to around $88 per ounce [3]. - Specific market data shows that London gold reached $4,935.46, reflecting a 5.93% increase, while London silver hit $88.663, up 12.05% [4]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract rose over 8% and the main gold contract increased over 4% on the night of February 3 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has announced adjustments to the price fluctuation limits and trading margin ratios for certain futures contracts, effective from February 5, 2026 [1] Group 1: Adjustments to Trading Parameters - The price fluctuation limit for crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 9% [1] - The margin ratio for maintaining positions will be set at 10% [1] - The margin ratio for general positions will be set at 11% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - Any adjustments to the price fluctuation limits and trading margin ratios will be made in accordance with Article 16 of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Risk Control Management Rules [1] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and trading margins will follow the relevant business rules and regulations of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper prices are supported by a decline in the US dollar and supply disruptions, with recent price increases leading to decreased purchasing willingness among downstream consumers [1][3] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,183 per ton, an increase of $54 or 0.42%, while the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan per ton, up 700 yuan or 0.68% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased to 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons or 0.68% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to trading rules for copper futures, effective January 28, 2026, including an increase in the price fluctuation limit to 9% and higher margin requirements [2] - The adjustments aim to reduce leverage trading risks and avoid frequent trading halts due to price limits, thereby improving market liquidity [2] Group 3 - Supply concerns are heightened due to ongoing disruptions at the Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile, while domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to decline, indicating a persistent tight supply situation [3] - Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, achieving a record high production last year, but rising inventories in both London and Shanghai are suppressing upward price movement [3] - The increase in copper prices has led to a decline in purchasing willingness among consumers, with expectations of further widening of spot discounts due to weak demand and rising inventories [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the price limit and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futures contracts, effective from January 28, 2026 [1] - The price limit for listed copper futures contracts will be set at 9%, with the margin requirement for hedging positions adjusted to 10% and for general positions to 11% [1] - Similarly, the price limit for listed aluminum futures contracts will also be 9%, with the same margin adjustments for hedging and general positions as copper [1] Group 2 - The adjustments are in accordance with the risk management regulations of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, specifically Article 13, which allows for further modifications under certain conditions [1] - Other matters related to price limits and margin requirements will follow the relevant business rules and risk management guidelines of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced adjustments to the trading rules for nickel, lead, and zinc futures, effective January 27, 2026, which includes changes to price limits and margin requirements [1][4]. Group 1: Adjustments to Futures Contracts - Nickel futures will have a price limit adjustment to 10%, with the margin for hedging positions set at 11% and for general positions at 12% [4][5]. - Aluminum, lead, and zinc futures will see their price limit adjusted to 8%, with hedging margin at 9% and general margin at 10% [4][5]. - Stainless steel futures will have a price limit of 6%, with hedging margin at 7% and general margin at 8% [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, nickel prices surged nearly 4% in the afternoon session, influenced by Indonesia's potential approval of a significant nickel ore production quota of approximately 260 million tons by 2026 [5][7]. - Nickel has been notably absent from the recent bull market in non-ferrous metals, with only a 3% increase since the beginning of 2024, contrasting sharply with gains in precious metals and other industrial metals [7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain lithium battery materials starting April 1, 2026, is prompting companies in the ternary materials sector to adjust production schedules, anticipating a surge in exports in the first quarter [7]. Group 3: Strategic Developments in Trading Rules - The adjustments to trading rules are part of a broader initiative to enhance the linkage between spot and futures markets, aiming to align SHFE's regulations more closely with international exchanges like LME and CME [8]. - The increase in price limits is intended to provide more room for market sentiment while the higher margin requirements are expected to raise speculative costs, potentially leading to a shift of short-term funds towards industrial clients and professional institutions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading margin ratio, price fluctuation limits, and trading limits for tin futures due to increased volatility in non-ferrous metal futures [1][2]. Group 1: Margin and Price Limits - The margin ratio for tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 12% for hedging positions and 13% for general positions, with the price fluctuation limit set at 11% starting from January 15, 2026 [2][3]. - The current standards for tin futures are 8% for hedging positions and 10% for general positions, indicating an increase in both categories [3]. Group 2: Trading Limits - From January 16, 2026, the maximum number of contracts for non-futures company members and special overseas non-broker participants for intraday opening in tin futures will be limited to 800 contracts, while hedging and market-making trades are exempt from this limit [5]. Group 3: Market Context - Tin prices have been rising significantly, with the main tin futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reaching historical highs [6]. - Despite expectations for the resumption of tin mining in the Wa State region, actual production recovery has not met market expectations, leading to tight supply conditions and low processing fees for tin ore [7]. - The demand from high-tech end products remains relatively stable, with major U.S. tech companies continuing to expand capital expenditures, supporting a robust overall market for tin [8].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the exchange indicates a regulatory measure to limit the daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients in lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 15, 2026 [1] Group 1 - Non-futures company members or clients will have a daily opening position limit of 400 lots for each of the specified lithium carbonate futures contracts (LC2606, LC2607, LC2608, LC2609, LC2610, LC2611, LC2612) [1]

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the margin standard for the power coal futures contract 2701 to be set at 50% and the price fluctuation limit at 10% [1] Group 2 - The maximum number of contracts that non-futures company members or clients can open in a single day is limited to 20 lots, which includes both buy and sell positions [2] - For those who exceed the trading limit for the first time, the exchange will impose a suspension of opening new positions for no less than 5 trading days, and for a second violation, the suspension will last for no less than 1 month [2] - Severe violations will be handled according to the relevant provisions of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's violation handling measures [2]