棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13300-13800 | 0.0401 | 0.0064 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 库存偏高，担 | 心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥 补企业的生产成本 | CF2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 13700-13800 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉 | CF601C1380 | 卖出 | 75% | 250-300 | | | | | 价上涨还可以锁定现货卖 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall cotton harvest in Xinjiang is nearing completion. New - cotton costs are fixed at around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. The increasing new - season supply will pressure cotton prices. Downstream demand is tepid, but there's a rigid restocking demand from yarn mills. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate, with attention on hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0543 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0346 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,700 - 13,800 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF601C13800) at 250 - 300 with a 75% ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low inventory and planning to purchase, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF601P13400) at 150 - 200 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some southern Xinjiang areas have lower - than - expected yields and lower lint percentage, supporting the purchase price. Yarn mills have a rigid restocking demand, and positive market sentiment is driven by Sino - US trade talks [4][6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, leading to high hedging pressure. As of the end of October, domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories reached 3818,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons. In October 2025, textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [6][7]. 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01, 05, and 09 closed at 13,560, 13,560, and 13,735 respectively, all down 20 with a - 0.15% change. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,855, down 10 (- 0.05%), while cotton yarn 05 and 09 had significant drops [8]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1282, up 18; the flower - yarn spread was 6280, up 15; the internal - external cotton spread was 1872, up 100 [8]. - **Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B decreased slightly, while FCI Index S, M, and L had relatively large drops [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of old cotton is low, which supports cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the listing time of new cotton. However, the downstream spinning profit is poor, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is limited. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton later [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,500 - 14,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0882 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2287 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF601C14200) at 200 - 250 with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,500 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) at 300 - 350 with a 50% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions The low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the poor downstream spinning profit limits the acceptance of high - priced cotton. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is large hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak, and attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton [4]. 3.3利多解读 - **Inventory Reduction**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of September 15, the domestic industrial and commercial cotton inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - **Retail Sales Growth**: In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74%. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream sales have improved month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory of yarn and cloth factories has further decreased [5]. 3.4利空解读 - **Bumper Harvest Expectation**: The growth of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast and in good condition. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, which will bring large hedging pressure on cotton prices [6]. - **Export Decline**: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Among them, clothing exports were 14.146 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%, with a relatively obvious decline [6]. 3.5 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, and 09 were 13,540, 13,560, and 13,725 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 70, 55, and 80 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.51%, 0.4%, and 0.58% respectively. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, and 09 were 19,635, 19,730, and 0 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 45, 19,730, and 19,990 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.23%, 100%, and 100% respectively [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,593 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 21 yuan. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 were - 20, - 165, and 185 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 15, 25, and - 10 yuan. The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 65 yuan. The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,940 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 45 yuan, and the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 609 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 90 yuan [8]. - **Price Indexes**: The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, and CCI 2129B were 15,133, 13,266, and 15,398 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 91, 81, and 99 yuan and decline rates of 0.6%, 0.61%, and 0.64% respectively. The prices of FCI Index S, FCI Index M, and FCI Index L were 13,494, 13,267, and 12,903 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 17 yuan and decline rates of 0.13% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission has limited impact on the market. Before the new cotton is listed, the low - inventory situation still supports cotton prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly restored, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient. The strategy is to go long on dips but not to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the listing time and opening price of new cotton and the subsequent downstream peak - season sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for cotton is 13,800 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0924 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2606 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400. They can also sell call options (CF601C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 300 - 350 to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,800 - 13,900 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - **Inventory Support**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of August 15, the domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July, which supports cotton prices [4]. - **Downstream Seasonal Changes**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, and the load of cloth mills continues to rise slightly, showing signs of the peak season [4]. - **USDA Report Impact**: The USDA's August supply - demand forecast report lowered the US cotton production and raised China's consumption, and significantly lowered the global ending inventory [4]. Negative Factors - **Quota Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas to supplement the market supply before the new cotton is listed [5]. - **New Cotton Outlook**: The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, and the overall growth is good, with an optimistic outlook for the new - year production [5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Cotton Futures**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,010, up 20 (0.14%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,950, unchanged; Cotton 09 closed at 13,580, up 5 (0.04%) [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures**: Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,995, unchanged; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,215, down 100% (this data seems abnormal); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 20,100, up 475 (2.42%) [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - **Cotton - related Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,441, down 34; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 60, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 370, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 430, down 15 [8]. - **Other Spreads**: The cotton - yarn spread was 5,990, up 20; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,216, up 140; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 517, unchanged [8]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 15,451, down 14 (- 0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,541, down 12 (- 0.09%); CCI 2129B was 15,703, down 16 (- 0.1%) [9]. - **Foreign Indexes**: FCI Index S was 13,708, up 108 (0.79%); FCI Index M was 13,492, up 107 (0.8%); FCI Index L was 13,194, up 110 (0.84%) [9]

Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton destocking during the off-season, and the adjustment of the China-US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, strategies include short - selling Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and offset production costs, and selling call options (CF509C14400) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [3]. - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, strategies include buying Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,700 to lock in procurement costs, and selling put options (CF509P13600) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [3]. Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have significantly decreased, and reserve cotton has not been sold. The destocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. - Post - pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. Bearish Factors - Under the squeeze of spinning profits, the overall operating load of inland textile enterprises has further decreased, although Xinjiang textile enterprises' operation remains stable. There is still some pressure on downstream finished - product inventory despite a slight destocking recently [8]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth. There is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [8]. Market Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,835, down 15 (-0.11%); Cotton 05 at 13,785, down 20 (-0.14%); Cotton 09 at 13,670, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,765, down 25 (-0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 20,035, down 100% (unusual data); Cotton yarn 09 at 19,900, unchanged [7][9]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,521, up 33; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 50, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 115, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,050, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,698, down 50; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 586, down 20 [10]. - Domestic and foreign cotton price indices: CCI 3128B was 15,191, up 13 (0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,325, up 8 (0.06%); CCI 2129B was 15,475, up 10 (0.06%); FCI Index S was 13,696, up 84 (0.62%); FCI Index M was 13,480, up 59 (0.44%); FCI Index L was 13,180, up 59 (0.45%) [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic import quota policy, the de-stocking speed of cotton in the off-season, and the adjustment of the Sino-US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Core Contradictions - The decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts, but the tight supply - demand situation at the end of the domestic year may support prices, and the short - term trend may be volatile. Key factors to watch include import quota policies, off - season de - stocking speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 利多解读 - High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and reserve cotton has not been sold. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, with an expected tight - balance state at the end of the year. Also, the late pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5] 利空解读 - Mainland textile mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang mills'开机 is stable. Downstream finished - product inventory has slightly decreased but still faces pressure. Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak flowering and boll - setting stage, with good growth and an optimistic production outlook for the new year [8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,820, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,655, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,735, up 30 (0.15%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,845, up 20 (0.1%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,514, up 36; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120, up 35; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 35; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,085, down 65; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,766, up 57; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 536, unchanged [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 15,169, up 16 (0.11%); CCI 2227B was 13,302, up 15 (0.11%); CCI 2129B was 15,457, up 22 (0.14%); FCI Index S was 13,577, down 165 (-1.2%); FCI Index M was 13,387, down 164 (-1.21%); FCI Index L was 13,086, down 189 (-1.42%) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current import quota policy has not been finalized. Supported by post - pricing by textile enterprises and low inventory, domestic cotton prices are showing a strong trend. The 09 contract's open interest has increased significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread continues the positive spread trend. In the short term, cotton prices may be strong due to capital inflows, but the pressure of downstream finished - product inventory in the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 13,600 and 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0681 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0986 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% ratio to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of import quota policies, the support from post - pricing and low inventory, and the pressure from off - season demand and downstream inventory are the main factors affecting cotton prices. The short - term trend may be strong, but the upside is limited [4]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the reserve cotton has not been sold. The inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis is firm. The market is expected to be in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream is in the off - season, with lower load in spinning and weaving factories, low raw - material procurement enthusiasm, and increasing finished - product inventory. The high temperature in Xinjiang has accelerated the growth of new cotton, and the overall growth is good, which is optimistic for the new - year's output [5]. Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, 09 are 13,960, 13,925, 14,250 respectively, with daily increases of 95, 90, 260 and corresponding increases of 0.69%, 0.65%, 1.86%. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, 09 are 20,285, 0, 20,430 respectively, with daily increases of 150, - 20060, 250 and corresponding increases of 0.74%, - 100%, 1.24% [5][7]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis is 1104 with a daily decrease of 178. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 are 35, - 325, 290 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 170, 165. The flower - yarn spread is 6200 with a daily increase of 10. The internal - external cotton spread is 1515 with a daily decrease of 136, and the internal - external yarn spread is - 409 with a daily increase of 180 [8]. Cotton Price Index - The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, CCI 2129B, FCI Index S, FCI Index M, FCI Index L are 15,354, 13,430, 15,661, 13,951, 13,757, 13,517 respectively, with daily increases of 82, 96, 95, 107, 106, 106 and corresponding increases of 0.54%, 0.72%, 0.61%, 0.77%, 0.78%, 0.79% [9].