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棉花产业?险管理日报-20250812
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 12:04
Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250807
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 13:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton destocking during the off-season, and the adjustment of the China-US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, strategies include short - selling Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and offset production costs, and selling call options (CF509C14400) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [3]. - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, strategies include buying Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,700 to lock in procurement costs, and selling put options (CF509P13600) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [3]. Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have significantly decreased, and reserve cotton has not been sold. The destocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. - Post - pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. Bearish Factors - Under the squeeze of spinning profits, the overall operating load of inland textile enterprises has further decreased, although Xinjiang textile enterprises' operation remains stable. There is still some pressure on downstream finished - product inventory despite a slight destocking recently [8]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth. There is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [8]. Market Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,835, down 15 (-0.11%); Cotton 05 at 13,785, down 20 (-0.14%); Cotton 09 at 13,670, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,765, down 25 (-0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 20,035, down 100% (unusual data); Cotton yarn 09 at 19,900, unchanged [7][9]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,521, up 33; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 50, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 115, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,050, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,698, down 50; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 586, down 20 [10]. - Domestic and foreign cotton price indices: CCI 3128B was 15,191, up 13 (0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,325, up 8 (0.06%); CCI 2129B was 15,475, up 10 (0.06%); FCI Index S was 13,696, up 84 (0.62%); FCI Index M was 13,480, up 59 (0.44%); FCI Index L was 13,180, up 59 (0.45%) [11].
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250806
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 08:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic import quota policy, the de-stocking speed of cotton in the off-season, and the adjustment of the Sino-US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Core Contradictions - The decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts, but the tight supply - demand situation at the end of the domestic year may support prices, and the short - term trend may be volatile. Key factors to watch include import quota policies, off - season de - stocking speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 利多解读 - High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and reserve cotton has not been sold. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, with an expected tight - balance state at the end of the year. Also, the late pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5] 利空解读 - Mainland textile mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang mills'开机 is stable. Downstream finished - product inventory has slightly decreased but still faces pressure. Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak flowering and boll - setting stage, with good growth and an optimistic production outlook for the new year [8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,820, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,655, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,735, up 30 (0.15%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,845, up 20 (0.1%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,514, up 36; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120, up 35; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 35; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,085, down 65; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,766, up 57; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 536, unchanged [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 15,169, up 16 (0.11%); CCI 2227B was 13,302, up 15 (0.11%); CCI 2129B was 15,457, up 22 (0.14%); FCI Index S was 13,577, down 165 (-1.2%); FCI Index M was 13,387, down 164 (-1.21%); FCI Index L was 13,086, down 189 (-1.42%) [11]
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250731
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]
同时远月还存丰产预期,后续需关注8月1日后中美关税如何变化
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 09:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250717
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 12:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current import quota policy has not been finalized. Supported by post - pricing by textile enterprises and low inventory, domestic cotton prices are showing a strong trend. The 09 contract's open interest has increased significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread continues the positive spread trend. In the short term, cotton prices may be strong due to capital inflows, but the pressure of downstream finished - product inventory in the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 13,600 and 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0681 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0986 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% ratio to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of import quota policies, the support from post - pricing and low inventory, and the pressure from off - season demand and downstream inventory are the main factors affecting cotton prices. The short - term trend may be strong, but the upside is limited [4]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the reserve cotton has not been sold. The inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis is firm. The market is expected to be in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream is in the off - season, with lower load in spinning and weaving factories, low raw - material procurement enthusiasm, and increasing finished - product inventory. The high temperature in Xinjiang has accelerated the growth of new cotton, and the overall growth is good, which is optimistic for the new - year's output [5]. Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, 09 are 13,960, 13,925, 14,250 respectively, with daily increases of 95, 90, 260 and corresponding increases of 0.69%, 0.65%, 1.86%. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, 09 are 20,285, 0, 20,430 respectively, with daily increases of 150, - 20060, 250 and corresponding increases of 0.74%, - 100%, 1.24% [5][7]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis is 1104 with a daily decrease of 178. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 are 35, - 325, 290 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 170, 165. The flower - yarn spread is 6200 with a daily increase of 10. The internal - external cotton spread is 1515 with a daily decrease of 136, and the internal - external yarn spread is - 409 with a daily increase of 180 [8]. Cotton Price Index - The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, CCI 2129B, FCI Index S, FCI Index M, FCI Index L are 15,354, 13,430, 15,661, 13,951, 13,757, 13,517 respectively, with daily increases of 82, 96, 95, 107, 106, 106 and corresponding increases of 0.54%, 0.72%, 0.61%, 0.77%, 0.78%, 0.79% [9].
棉花产业?险管理?报
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino-US policies are temporarily stable, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly due to the Israel-Iran war. During the off-season of demand, the rebound momentum of cotton prices is slightly weak. However, due to the small quantity of imported cotton, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly. It is expected that the supply and demand may become tight by the end of the year, and the downside space of cotton prices is narrowing. In the short term, the pressure around 13,800 should be monitored above, and the support around 13,000 below. Attention should also be paid to the inventory reduction speed of cotton during the off-season [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,000 - 13,800, with a current volatility (20-day rolling) of 0.062 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 years) of 0.0597 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and wishing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,000 - 13,200. They can also sell put options (CF509P13000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 100 - 150 [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, this year's cotton import volume has decreased significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sold. Although the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, the inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of June 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 4.057 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly concentrated around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off-season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait-and-see sentiment, and continuous accumulation of finished product inventory [5] Futures Price - Cotton 01 closed at 13,765, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 05 closed at 13,750, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 09 closed at 13,760, up 40 or 0.29%;棉纱 01 closed at 20,055, up 35 or 0.17%;棉纱 05 closed at 0, down 20,050 or -100%;棉纱 09 closed at 20,105, up 45 or 0.22% [5][6] Price Spread - Cotton basis was 1,349, up 49; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was -10, up 60; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was -5, down 60; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,365, down 30; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,294, down 14; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was -627, unchanged [6] Price Index - CCI 3128B was 15,109, up 89 or 0.59%; CCI 2227B was 13,145, up 60 or 0.46%; CCI 2129B was 15,378, up 60 or 0.39%; FCI Index S was 14,007, up 92 or 0.66%; FCI Index M was 13,818, up 92 or 0.67%; FCI Index L was 13,588, up 93 or 0.69% [7]
棉花产业险管理调整情况
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 13:32
Group 1: Report's Core View - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there is no policy adjustment related to reciprocal tariffs or the textile and clothing sectors. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, and there may be a short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4] Group 2: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0545 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0339 [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 150 - 200 [3] Group 3: Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, cotton imports this year have dropped significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sale. Although Xinjiang cotton production is high, inventory is being depleted quickly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4399800 tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13530 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton 05 | 13535 | 5 | 0.04% | | Cotton 09 | 13525 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton Yarn 01 | 0 | - 19690 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 09 | 19775 | 10 | 0.05% | [5][6] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1337 | 47 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 10 | 10 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6250 | 0 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1146 | - 89 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 689 | 0 | [7] Group 6: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14862 | 42 | 0.28% | | CCI 2227B | 12968 | 36 | 0.28% | | CCI 2129B | 15172 | 44 | 0.29% | | FCI Index S | 13880 | 18 | 0.13% | | FCI Index M | 13691 | 17 | 0.12% | | FCI Index L | 13461 | 18 | 0.13% | [8]
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250613
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:46
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there has been no policy adjustment regarding reciprocal tariffs or the textile and apparel sector. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, with a possible short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0548 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0343 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is in the hands of large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 439.98 million tons, indicating fast de - stocking [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load in spinning and weaving mills, low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, and a slight accumulation of finished products [7]. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13,495 with no change; Cotton 05 at 13,480 with no change; Cotton 09 at 13,520 with no change; Yarn 01 at 19,715 with no change; Yarn 09 at 19,770 with no change. Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100% [6][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1332, up 88; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 40, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 25, down 5; The cotton - yarn spread was 6235, up 10; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1210, up 82; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 689 with no change [8]. - **Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 14,852, up 68 (0.46%); CCI 2227B was 12,948, up 41 (0.32%); CCI 2129B was 15,155, up 52 (0.34%); FCI Index S was 13,955, up 112 (0.81%); FCI Index M was 13,642, down 14 (- 0.1%); FCI Index L was 13,412, down 14 (- 0.1%) [9].
棉花产业风险管理日报-20250610
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]