Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a continuous oversupply and high operational rates among enterprises, leading to bearish market sentiment [1][2][3] - As of September 5, the main alumina futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, but this represents a nearly 14% decline from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1] - The average spot price of alumina this week was 3189.08 yuan/ton, down 36.98 yuan/ton from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 1.15% [1] Group 2 - In terms of demand, the estimated alumina consumption in August was 764.28 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2] - The total alumina inventory in China as of August 28 was 431.6 million tons, up 23.4 million tons from the end of July, driven by high production rates and increased imports [2] - The alumina market is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions remain slightly tight [2][3] Group 3 - The outlook for September suggests that alumina prices may continue to weaken, with expected price ranges between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton due to increased market supply and pressure from downstream aluminum plants [3][4] - Analysts predict that the spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina may experience slight declines over the next three months, influenced by stable output from newly added capacities and ongoing repairs in production lines [4] - The cost side remains uncertain due to seasonal disruptions in Guinea and fluctuations in raw material prices, although it is expected that the cost will provide some support [4]

Group 1 - The alumina market experienced significant adjustments in the first half of the year, with prices declining from a peak of 5540 yuan/ton to a low of 2663 yuan/ton, maintaining a wide fluctuation between 2700 and 3600 yuan/ton after May [1] - The cyclical logic behind the price movements includes industry profit contraction, active production cuts, price rebounds, resumption of production, and price declines back to cost levels [1] - In the fourth quarter, alumina is expected to continue its wide fluctuation pattern, with cost support remaining due to the slow decline in bauxite prices, but upward price movement requires substantial supply-side disruptions [1] Group 2 - As of the end of August, domestic alumina operating capacity was approximately 95 million tons, with a peak close to 96 million tons, and about 1.6 million tons of capacity expected to resume following maintenance [1] - Demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable, but growth is limited due to capacity constraints, while non-aluminum demand shows seasonal characteristics and overall demand growth is far behind supply [1] - By 2025, the domestic alumina market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 2% or 2 million tons [1] Group 3 - In the overseas market, projects in India and Indonesia are ramping up, leading to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the overseas supply landscape since the third quarter [2] - By 2025, the overseas alumina surplus is expected to be around 160 million tons, with a surplus rate of 2.7% [2] - Overall, the global alumina supply shifted from a slight shortage to a surplus in the third quarter, with significant surplus pressures expected in both domestic and overseas markets in the second half of the year [2] Group 4 - Guinea bauxite shipments have shown fluctuations due to the rainy season but remain at high levels year-on-year, with expectations of overall surplus in bauxite supply [2] - The CIF price of Guinea bauxite is projected at $74.5/ton, with marginal cash costs for domestic alumina production estimated between 2850 and 2950 yuan/ton, and total costs between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating a neutral profit level for the industry [2] Group 5 - In the short term, without supply disruptions, alumina prices may remain in a bottoming phase, with current prices near the cash loss threshold for smelting [3] - The price support level is expected around 2900 to 3000 yuan/ton, with an anticipated price fluctuation range of 2900 to 3300 yuan/ton [3] - Despite significant supply surplus pressures, seasonal production limits and policy disruptions in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary price rebound, with potential peaks around 3500 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply is generally stable as Shunda is preparing for复产, but the spot price of alumina declined last week. The domestic alumina market is slightly oversupplied, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weak trend [1][2][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The transportation restrictions in northern regions due to the parade and the seasonal constraints in the south supported the ore prices. The impact of mine shutdowns and the rainy season in Guinea on the spot market is gradually emerging. Shunda is preparing for复产, and 4.054 million tons of new ore arrived during the period [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The trading atmosphere was light, and the import window was not fully opened. The industry profit is acceptable, leading to an increased willingness of enterprises to operate at full capacity. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons compared to last week, with an operating rate of 83.5% [2][12] - **Demand**: The domestic demand for alumina increased, with the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises rising. The overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was more stable, while the inventory of some local alumina enterprises increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 26,075 tons compared to last week. The domestic futures price continued to show a weak trend [14] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded overseas on August 21, with the destination being Malaysia, and the CIF price was $386 per ton [15] - In July 2025, China's net export of alumina reached 104,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to July was 1.179 million tons [15] - In July, China's single - month import volume of bauxite reached 20.063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It covers the spot prices of alumina in various domestic provinces, the import price of alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [35][37][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].

现货市场方面，Mysteel数据显示近期氧化铝价格稳中有升。新湖期货分析认为："短期现货价格或因局 部供应偏紧而坚挺，期货价格则受投机资金主导，短期或仍有反复。"值得注意的是，南北方市场呈现 差异化表现，北方下游铝厂对现货采购情绪逐渐下降，而南方受需求阶段性增加，市场询货积极性相对 较高。 上涨动因：低仓单风险与海外供应扰动 本次氧化铝价格上涨主要受到两重因素推动。金瑞期货分析指出："今日注册仓单增加但整体仓单库存 仍处低位、现货价格继续小涨下预底部支撑仍存。"上期所氧化铝仓单降至0.4万吨的极低水平，加剧了 市场对挤仓风险的担忧，为价格提供了短期支撑。 海外供应端出现扰动事件。据阿拉丁（ALD）综合海外媒体消息，2025年7月28日凌晨几内亚弗利亚地 区俄铝下属的Friguia氧化铝厂发生罢工，工人设置路障导致交通完全瘫痪。虽然目前暂未对供应产生实 质性影响，但这一事件加剧了市场对海外供应稳定性的担忧。宏源期货表示："进口几内亚铝土矿价格 上涨推升生产成本"，进一步强化了成本支撑逻辑。 供需格局：产量攀升与过剩预期压制 周三，氧化铝期货市场呈现先涨后跌的震荡走势，主力合约最终收涨1.65%。市场分析指出，多 ...

今年上半年，氧化铝价格呈现高位回落行情。今年1月初，氧化铝价格还在5000元（每吨，下同）上 方，至4月上旬，一度下跌至3000元以下，跌幅超过40%。 受益于氧化铝价格的回落，下游电解铝企业盈利普遍向好。其中，云铝股份预计上半年盈利27亿元至28 亿元，同比增长7.19%至11.16%。公司表示，电解铝生产线满负荷生产，抓住铝价上涨的市场机遇，同 时，受益于原材料价格回落，公司二季度经营业绩环比实现大幅增长。焦作万方上半年预盈5亿元至 5.60亿元，同比增长39.09%至55.78%；中孚实业上半年预盈6.8亿元至7.2亿元，同比增加53.35%至 62.37%。两家公司均表示，电解铝业务受成本下降及销售价格上涨影响，利润同比实现增长。 对于氧化铝价格未来走势，陆俊杰认为，随着未来供应逐渐增加，价格理性回归概率较大。一德期货认 为，短期来看，政策预期较强，加之低仓单、流通货源偏紧等因素，市场情绪火热，氧化铝价格或偏强 运行，但中期来看，基本面情况限制上行空间。 从盈利水平来看，据一德期货测算，目前氧化铝的加权完全成本在2842元/吨，理论利润约340元/吨， 以主力合约来衡量，全行业处于盈利水平。随着时间的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has shifted from a strong upward trend to a phase of oscillation and correction, with the main contract AO2509 declining from a recent high of 3238 yuan/ton on July 10 to a low of 3055 yuan/ton on July 17, indicating a downward price adjustment [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial price increase was driven by factors such as stable spot prices and macroeconomic policies, including expectations of domestic "anti-involution" policies and speculation about supply-side reforms in aluminum oxide [2] - The current supply-demand structure is evolving from a tight balance to a structural surplus, with operating capacity recovering to high levels and weekly production maintaining historical highs [3] - Despite some tightness in the spot market due to high execution rates of long-term contracts in certain regions, the overall supply of aluminum oxide remains loose [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The average daily production of aluminum oxide has exceeded 250,000 tons, with profits for aluminum oxide enterprises generally above 200 yuan/ton, and low-cost producers achieving profits over 600 yuan/ton [4] - The improvement in profitability has stimulated the resumption of previously idled production capacity [4] - The average complete cost of aluminum oxide is gradually decreasing as domestic ore prices stabilize and import ore prices show slight weakness [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Key variables to watch in the aluminum oxide market include the pace of new capacity releases, the recovery of bauxite supply from Guinea, and potential production cuts or inventory reductions in response to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - Short-term tightness in spot supply may support aluminum oxide prices, but if new capacity is released as planned in the second half of the year, prices may face downward pressure due to anticipated oversupply [5]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 关注库存变化 氧化铝偏好震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端近期进口和国产矿表现都相对较稳，几内亚 雨季影响尚在继续，但由于传导至中国港口方面 尚需一定时间周期，近期中国进口矿到港情况暂 无过多变化。供应端氧化铝供应较前期有所增多。 上周部分提产的企业产量增量陆续体现，氧化铝 供应有所增多。但多数企业以执行长单为主，加之 部分企业焙烧炉阶段性检修导致提货困难，局部 地区氧化铝现货仍旧偏紧，氧化铝开工产能9320 万吨，开工率为81.18%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of operations at the Guinea Axis mine is significantly impacting alumina prices, with domestic alumina contracts rising by 1.55% to 3138 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from Guinea, which is China's largest bauxite import source [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea remains the largest source of bauxite imports for China, with imports increasing to 67.77 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1]. - The Guinea Axis mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an estimated 2.3 million tons of production in 2024 [2]. - The suspension of the Axis mine could shift the alumina supply-demand balance from surplus to shortage if the halt continues, as Guinea's bauxite shipment volume was previously expected to increase by 25 to 28 million tons [2]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Market Conditions - Domestic alumina production from January to April 2025 reached 28.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, although April's production saw a month-on-month decline of 11.3% [3]. - The total operational capacity for alumina in China decreased to 84.12 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]. - Recent production cuts due to maintenance have tightened the spot market for alumina, leading to a rebound in spot prices as production costs decrease with falling bauxite prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the short-term price increase for alumina may be limited, as there is a high probability that mining companies will reach agreements with the Guinea government, potentially mitigating long-term supply concerns [4]. - The market sentiment is currently influenced by the supply disruptions from Guinea, with expectations of strong fluctuations in alumina prices due to ongoing negotiations and potential recovery timelines for the affected mines [5][7]. - The recent withdrawal of mining licenses by the Guinea government has raised concerns about the duration and scale of supply disruptions, which could lead to significant changes in the alumina market dynamics [8][9].