宏观方面，美元指数反弹上行，给金属市场带来利空压制，叠加中国主要股指涨跌互现，市场乐观情绪 有所回落。与此同时，氧化铝市场空头势力仍萦绕价格上方，期货价格承压下行。 基本面方面，国内氧化铝运行产能持续处于高位，长期减产迹象暂未显现，冶炼企业多持观望态度。北 方地区铝土矿有复产迹象，进口方面几内亚铝土矿发运保持稳定，氧化铝市场供应整体过剩，价格上行 压力较大。消费端，近期矿石成交清淡，下游氧化铝厂利润空间被压缩，而矿石供应相对宽松，进一步 加剧了其观望情绪。现货市场上，现货价格仍未止跌，持货商出货换现意愿较强，下游电解铝企业逢跌 压价、按需采购，整体交投氛围尚可，全天成交情况略有改善。 综合分析，氧化铝供需双方仍在博弈，基本面利空因素主导，当前供需过剩格局未变，仍是价格上行的 阻碍，预计短期内氧化铝价格将震荡回落以寻求支撑。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网1月13日讯，今日氧化铝震荡收跌，主力月2605合约低开低走，午后下行幅度走阔；截止当 日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2780元，收跌59元，跌幅2.08% ...

短期来看，氧化铝供需过剩格局难以扭转，社会库存持续累积，按现金成本核算仍有利润，且铝土矿价 格回落可能进一步降低成本。在未出现大规模减产之前，氧化铝价格上行空间受限，现货价格预计仍将 下跌。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 今日上期所氧化铝期货强势拉升，主力2605合约日间交易收涨5.601%，国内氧化铝现货价格多数下 跌。 宏观层面，国内金属市场氛围向好，有色金属整体上扬。人民币强势升值，同时央行持续推进稳健货币 政策，为金属市场注入了消费信心。在此背景下，氧化铝期货市场多头信心有所修复，推动期价震荡上 行。 基本面方面，成本端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐消退，且中国 11 月铝土矿进口量环比、同比分别增长 9.8% 和 22.3%，铝土矿价格存在下降空间。供应端，氧化铝开工产能维持高位，供应过剩局面短期内难以改 变，行业库存持续增加，这在一定程度上限制了氧化铝价格的上行空间。需求端，新疆地区电解铝发运 情况改善，在途库存增多，铝锭社会库存累积，使得当地对氧化铝现货的采购意愿降低；南方地区供应 稳定，仅有个别铝厂低价采购。此外，近期电解铝厂招标价格持续走低，氧化铝基本面利空因素 ...

短期来看，氧化铝价格预计将继续偏弱运行。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货震荡下沿，主力2601合约日间交易收跌1.03%，国内氧化铝现货价格下跌。 宏观层面，海外降息预期重燃，美元指数走低，全球股市与油价齐涨，市场风险偏好提升。不过，氧化 铝期货市场反应平淡，近期价格主要受基本面偏空因素左右。 基本面方面，原料端，北方矿山虽逐步复产，但供矿稳定性差，国产矿库存低位；而进口矿稳定到港， 削弱了成本端价格支撑。供应端，国内部分氧化铝炼厂检修减产致周度产量微降，但运行产能整体仍处 高位。同时，进口窗口开启，需求增量有限，氧化铝供应压力较大。国内氧化铝总库存持续增加，各类 库存数据均偏高，仓单水平也不低，盘面面临较大实货交割压力。需求端，西北电解铝厂前期集中补 库，卸货压力增大，高库存下对氧化铝现货采购意愿骤降；南方地区供应稳定，仅个别铝厂逢低价采 购。现货市场，氧化铝价格持续下跌，市场接货需求不足、畏跌情绪浓，成交总量虽有提升，但仍难消 化供应，进一步加剧库存累积。 长江有色网12月22日讯，今日氧化铝走势延续弱势， ...

累库趋势未见放缓， 期价加速下行 氧化铝月报 2025/12/05 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 月度评估 04 供给端 要点小结 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 铝土矿 氧化铝 电解铝（95%） 拜耳法 2.5:1 铝线缆 铝型材 铝板带 烧碱 铝箔 上游 中游 初端 终端 陶瓷、钢化 玻璃、化工 （5%） 电解法 1.925:1 铝合金 其他 建筑 （25%） 交通运输 （25%） 电力电子 （25%） 机械设备 （12%） 其他 （13%） ◆ 期货价格：期货价格方面，截至12月5日，氧化铝指数较10月31日价格累计下跌7.36%至2607元/吨。产量高位、过期仓单交割困境、库存居高不下、矿价下跌多重因素驱动氧化铝 期价本月加速下行。11月中上旬氧化铝期价仍维持宽幅震荡，但在临近12月交割时，基本面各因素短期难以反转叠加过期仓单交割困难，期价于11月底开始迅速下探。展望后市， 关注矿企成 ...

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 基本面未见改善 氧化铝延续弱势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端消息平静，保持国内供应偏 紧，几内亚进口矿宽松格局，港口矿石库存约2950 万吨左右，供应充裕。企业采购进口矿石按需采 购，国内外矿价持稳。供应端上周氧化铝开工产能 环比上升40万吨至9630万吨，主要是山东前期检 修的1台焙烧产能恢复，以及山西前期检修产能恢 复满产。同时进口氧化铝继续流入，供应增加。消 费端电解铝行业开工产能略有增加，不过幅度有 限，大部分企业长单执行为主，消费刚性。仓单库 存周内增加7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing a supply surplus and rising inventory levels, leading to downward pressure on prices, although there are signs of stabilization in late October [1][9]. Supply and Production - In October, China's bauxite production was 4.7723 million tons, a slight decrease of 2.2% month-on-month and a 6.9% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to October reached 50.5155 million tons, up 5.2% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic bauxite inventory at alumina plants was 52.45 million tons, showing a slight decrease but remaining at a high level, indicating weak replenishment intentions [2]. - In October, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; cumulative production from January to October reached 74.458 million tons, up 8.1% year-on-year [4]. Inventory Levels - As of last week, the total alumina inventory in China reached 4.732 million tons, continuing to rise, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding 3.269 million tons of alumina, indicating sufficient raw material reserves [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total alumina inventory reached 248,000 tons, with warehouse receipts at 237,000 tons, both at relatively high levels [5]. Downstream Impact - In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; however, production is expected to decline to 3.62 million tons in November due to environmental factors affecting some enterprises [8]. - The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 4.406 million tons, with a utilization rate of 96.1%, indicating limited room for production increases [8]. Price Dynamics - Alumina prices are under significant pressure, nearing the industry's average cost line, which may lead to increased expectations for production cuts among alumina producers due to compressed industry profits [4][9]. - The overall supply-demand balance for alumina remains loose, with high inventory levels, suggesting limited further downside for prices due to strong cost support [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina production remains at a high level, and with the gradual inflow of imports, supply pressure persists, and price pressure on alumina remains significant. However, the alumina futures price has approached the cost line, and as the spot price continues to decline, the loss - making production capacity increases, showing support at the low - price level. The market's willingness to short further is insufficient, and the downward space for alumina is limited, with an expected weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the situation of concentrated production cuts, when alumina may rebound [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/24 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2800 | 2810 | 10 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2956 | 2921 | - 35 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 187 | 144 | - 43 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 319 | 319.5 | 0.5 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 101.91 | 52.63 | - 49.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 221262 | 221257 | - 5 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 72 | 71 | - 1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.36% last week, closing at 2860 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market was reported at 2921 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 35 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - In terms of bauxite, the tight supply of domestic ore continued this week. In the northern region, the supply was tightened due to rainfall, and enterprise ore inventories were at a low level. In the southern inland, the mine operating rate remained low, the market spot circulation was limited, and the ore inventory in alumina plants was consumed, with prices remaining stable overall. Imported ore supply and demand parties were still waiting and watching regarding prices, and there was no obvious adjustment in spot ore prices. - On the supply side, alumina supply changed little. The roasting capacity of an alumina enterprise in Henan fluctuated in the short term, with a limited actual impact on production. As of October 23, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36%. - On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable. Enterprises mainly purchased through bidding, mostly for replenishing stocks, with a relatively low willingness to accumulate stocks, and transaction prices mostly continued the discount trend. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 221,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - On the ore side, the supply situation of domestic ore will mostly maintain the current situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of precipitation on mine operations in various regions. The rainy - season impact in Guinea continues, and rainfall has increased significantly compared with previous years. Floods have occurred in many places in Guinea, affecting ore road transportation and port operations to varying degrees, which has a certain impact on China's import volume, but the current supply of imported ore is sufficient, and prices are stable. On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina has limited changes. Recently, an enterprise in Henan has short - term production cuts in roasting capacity, but the actual impact on production is limited. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable. Enterprises mainly purchase through bidding, and some aluminum plants in the northwest have started winter storage, mostly with price - pressured transactions. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 221,000 tons this week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, alumina production remains at a high level, and with the gradual inflow of imports, supply pressure persists, and price pressure on alumina remains significant. However, the alumina futures price has approached the cost line, and as the spot price continues to decline, the loss - making production capacity increases, showing support at the low - price level. The market's willingness to short further is insufficient, and the downward space for alumina is limited, with an expected weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the situation of concentrated production cuts, when alumina may rebound [6]. 3.4 Industry News - According to data from China Customs, as of September 2025, China's total bauxite imports in 2025 reached 157.637 million tons. In September, the total import of bauxite was about 15.88 million tons, of which about 10.493 million tons were imported from Guinea, showing a slight impact of the rainy season in Guinea. In Australia, the import level was relatively stable, with 3.74 million tons of bauxite imported. - Alcoa recently released its Q3 2025 earnings report. Total revenue decreased 1% quarter - on - quarter to $2.995 billion, with alumina revenue down 9%. Net profit attributable to Alcoa was $232 million. Alumina production increased 4% quarter - on - quarter to 2.5 million tons, and alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons [7]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes charts such as Alumina Futures Price Trend, Alumina Spot Price, Alumina Spot Premium, Alumina Current - to - Next - Month Spread, Domestic Bauxite Price, Imported Bauxite CIF, Caustic Soda Price, Steam Coal Price, Alumina Cost - Profit, and Alumina Exchange Inventory [8][11][14][16][19][21][24]

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 118 million tons (40.3% increase) and Australia 27.71 million tons (5.4% decrease) [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating a high supply level [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - Domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production as of October 17 was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - As of October 17, domestic alumina inventory was 4.639 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from late September but down $45 from late August, reflecting a weaker overseas price trend [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a continuous contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation of further declines in alumina prices may lead to losses in high-cost regions, increasing the likelihood of voluntary production cuts in the smelting industry [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 75% of total imports [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating ample supply [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - As of October 17, domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - Domestic alumina inventory reached 4.639 million tons as of October 17, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from the end of September but down $45 from the end of August, reflecting weaker overseas pricing [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton as of October 3, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation is that as alumina prices continue to decline, smelting losses may occur, particularly in high-cost regions, potentially leading to voluntary production cuts [3][6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The alumina market is expected to remain under pressure due to ample supply, high operating capacity, and increasing registered warehouse receipts, which are significantly higher than the same period last year [8] - Short-term alumina prices are unlikely to recover, with a focus on smelting cost support and the potential for production cuts if smelting profits enter a loss zone [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a continuous oversupply and high operational rates among enterprises, leading to bearish market sentiment [1][2][3] - As of September 5, the main alumina futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, but this represents a nearly 14% decline from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1] - The average spot price of alumina this week was 3189.08 yuan/ton, down 36.98 yuan/ton from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 1.15% [1] Group 2 - In terms of demand, the estimated alumina consumption in August was 764.28 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2] - The total alumina inventory in China as of August 28 was 431.6 million tons, up 23.4 million tons from the end of July, driven by high production rates and increased imports [2] - The alumina market is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions remain slightly tight [2][3] Group 3 - The outlook for September suggests that alumina prices may continue to weaken, with expected price ranges between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton due to increased market supply and pressure from downstream aluminum plants [3][4] - Analysts predict that the spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina may experience slight declines over the next three months, influenced by stable output from newly added capacities and ongoing repairs in production lines [4] - The cost side remains uncertain due to seasonal disruptions in Guinea and fluctuations in raw material prices, although it is expected that the cost will provide some support [4]