日本财 务相片山皋月出席记者会（11月21日，日本国会内） 声明提到，汇率干预"被视为应对过度波动或无序贬值/升值的同等恰当方式"。片山强调，作为一个选 项"当然可以考虑"。 关于近期日元贬值的走势，片山认为 "非常单方面且急剧，这让人感到忧虑"。她还表示："外汇汇率应 反映经济基本面，保持稳定波动，这一点很重要"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 关于近期日元贬值的走势，片山认为 "非常单方面且急剧，这让人感到忧虑"。她表示"将视情况采取适 当的应对措施"，强调汇率干预作为一个选项"当然可以考虑"…… 日本财务相片山皋月在11月21日内阁会议后的记者会上就日元持续贬值的现状表示，针对外汇市场出现 的过度波动及无序走势"根据9月发布的日美财长联合声明的思路，将视情况采取适当的应对措施"。 ...

据报道，日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，近期观察到外汇单边走势非常快速的波动，将根据美日外汇协议 采取适当行动。汇率干预是可行的选项。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

日元的疲软在其与欧元走势的对比中尤为凸显——欧元兑日元在周三一路升破180大关后，周四进一步 触及181.44的高位，这是自1999年欧元诞生以来的最高纪录水平。从反映日元兑多种货币实力的名义有 效汇率的日元指数来看，日元9月底以来的跌幅已达到3%，在G10货币中跌幅最大。 随着日元兑美元汇率跌至10个月低点，日本财务大臣片山皋月周三进一步加强了对日元贬值的警告力 度。她已向日本央行行长植田和男及增长战略大臣城内实确认了监测市场走势的必要性。 随着全球股市波动加剧，美元自9月以来持续上涨，导致非美货币尤其是部分亚洲货币普遍走弱，这令 部分亚洲央行是否会干预汇市，再度成为了全球市场上的一大焦点。 在这轮非美货币的贬值浪潮中，日韩货币颇为显眼地被"卷上了潮头"。其中，美元兑日元汇率隔夜已一 路升破了157关口，刷新了今年1月以来的新高。在高市早苗政府提出推行激进财政支出政策的背景下， 市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 亚币保卫战的"好消息"：8万亿美元外储弹药充足 可以说，这一轮亚洲货币面临的贬值压力，与美元反弹和全球货币政策格局的变化有着直接关系。智通 财经本月早些时候在美元指数升破100关口时就 ...

在高市早苗政权提出积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。日本 财务相、经济财政相以及日本银行总裁举行了三方会谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强 的具体议题…… 11月19日的纽约外汇市场上，日元汇率一度跌至1美元兑157日元区间。日元跌至157日元区间是自1月中 旬以来时隔约10个月。对欧元方面，日元在1欧元兑181日元出头，刷新最弱水平。在高市早苗政权提出 积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 对美元方面，从美国东部时间19日凌晨触及156日元区间后，日元在大约10小时内下跌了1日元。19日傍 晚（日本时间），日本财务相片山皋月、经济财政相城内实以及日本银行总裁植田和男举行了三方会 谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强的具体议题，市场对政府和日本央行进行汇率干预的 预期随之下降。 美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）的降息节奏变得难以判断也带来影响。19日公布的10月美国联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，不少与会者预计至少在年底之前维持政策利率不变。 在会议纪要公布后，根据美国利率期货市场走势预测政策利率的"FedWatch ...

据美国银行最新发布的全球基金经理调查，日元被广泛视为2026年最具回报潜力的主要货币。该调查于 2025年11月7日至13日进行，覆盖172名资产管理规模合计达4750亿美元的投资者。结果显示，约三分之 一的受访者预计日元将在明年实现最佳回报，黄金与美元紧随其后，而仅3%的受访者选择英镑。 这一乐观预期与日元在2025年的实际表现形成鲜明对比。截至当前，美元兑日元年内仅上涨1%，在十 国集团（G10）货币中表现垫底。分析指出，日本央行对加息前景的模糊表态，以及新任首相高市早苗 作为宽松货币政策支持者的立场，是导致日元今年疲软的关键因素。高市政府正筹备超出预期的财政支 出计划，进一步抑制了市场对货币政策正常化的信心。 尽管如此，投资者对日元的看涨情绪可能源于其当前被显著低估的状态。这种低估部分反映了国际资本 对日本资产的持续低配：参与上述调查的基金经理对日本股票的净低配比例达4%，且该配置倾向已维 持超过一年。 市场亦关注日本当局可能的汇率干预动向。2024年，当日元一度跌破1美元兑160日元的关键心理关口 时，日本政府曾采取行动入市干预。荷兰国际集团（ING）伦敦办公室货币策略师Francesco Pesol ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a decline of 3% since the end of September, marking the largest drop among 10 major currencies, while the pace of this depreciation is slower compared to previous instances, reducing market concerns about currency intervention [2][4]. Summary by Sections - The yen's depreciation is ongoing, with the exchange rate reaching around 155 yen per dollar, influenced by the strong dollar and the Japanese government's expansionary fiscal policies [4][5]. - The Japanese government is leaning towards fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with discussions about increasing the supplementary budget for 2025 beyond the 13.9 trillion yen planned for 2024 [5]. - The Japanese authorities have not shown a strong intent to intervene in the currency market, with recent statements indicating a recognition of the negative impacts of yen depreciation but lacking urgency for intervention [5][7]. - Market analysts suggest that the authorities may tolerate a yen level around 161 per dollar before considering intervention, as the current volatility is relatively stable compared to past interventions [7][8]. - The market will closely monitor the statements from Japanese officials regarding currency intervention, as expectations of intervention may lead to increased volatility in the yen's exchange rate [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation, raising concerns about the new government's ability to intervene effectively to support the currency, especially in light of Prime Minister Kishida's signals of a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes [1][2][3] Currency Trends - The yen has depreciated approximately 4.5% against the US dollar this quarter, marking the largest decline among G10 currencies, with the exchange rate reaching around 154.73 [1][2] - The yen's rapid fluctuations have prompted warnings from Japanese officials, indicating a heightened urgency to monitor excessive volatility [1][2] Government and Central Bank Actions - Japan's Finance Ministry previously intervened in the market when the yen fell to around 160.17, with multiple interventions at various levels [2] - Current discussions suggest that if the yen surpasses 155 against the dollar, the likelihood of intervention will significantly increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in the last meeting, with a decision on the next policy expected on December 19, and a majority of economists anticipate a rate hike by January [2][4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if the yen breaks the 155 mark, verbal intervention may intensify, and the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could also rise [3] - The market currently estimates a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, with full expectations for a rate increase not anticipated until April next year [4] Economic Implications - A weaker yen could benefit Japan's export sector by increasing the value of repatriated earnings, but it also raises import costs and inflationary pressures [2] - The potential for intervention may complicate Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US, which is a key component of the US-Japan trade agreement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is nearing its limit of tolerance for currency fluctuations, with the yen approaching the critical threshold of 155 against the dollar, prompting warnings from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki about potential intervention [1][5]. Currency Fluctuation and Government Response - The yen fell to 154.79, its lowest level since February, before stabilizing around 154.59 after Suzuki's remarks [2]. - The recent depreciation of the yen is attributed to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance and market expectations of the U.S. government ending its shutdown soon, which supports the dollar [5]. - The government is closely monitoring excessive and disorderly currency fluctuations and plans to address inflation impacts through an upcoming economic package [1][5]. Historical Context and Market Sentiment - Historical instances of intervention occurred in October 2022 and May 2024 when the yen depreciated significantly, with the current 5% decline in the past month raising concerns [6]. - The 155 level is viewed as a significant psychological barrier, and the yen's weakness is becoming a political burden due to rising import-driven inflation [6][8]. Market Analysis and Intervention Likelihood - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe immediate intervention is unlikely, as current conditions do not meet the usual criteria for action [7]. - Goldman Sachs suggests intervention may only become likely if the dollar-yen exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America indicates a need for the rate to test 158 for a meaningful policy response [7]. Economic Implications of Yen Weakness - The weak yen exacerbates inflationary pressures on Japan's economy, which heavily relies on imported energy and materials, increasing costs for households and squeezing domestic businesses [8]. - Rising living costs have become a political issue, previously leading to the resignation of two prime ministers, and the weak yen has drawn attention from the U.S. [9]. Intervention Mechanism and Historical Effectiveness - When Japan intervenes to support the yen, it typically uses its foreign reserves, which amounted to $1.15 trillion as of the end of October [10]. - Historical interventions have shown limited long-term effectiveness, as past actions did not prevent the yen's depreciation driven by fundamental factors [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a nearly 5% drop in the past month, raising concerns about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The exchange rate for the yen against the dollar was recorded at 154.15 to 154.25 yen per dollar at the close of the New York market on November 3, with fluctuations primarily above 154 yen during Tokyo trading on November 4 [4]. - The yen's depreciation reached a low of 154 yen on October 30, marking the lowest level in eight months [4]. - The yen has experienced a 4.4% decline compared to 21 trading days prior, with the most significant drop of 4.6% occurring on October 30, the largest since July 31 [4][6]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Responses - Former Japanese Finance Minister and current ADB President Kanda Masato noted that a 5% fluctuation is a significant indicator for potential government intervention, although it is not a strict condition [2][6]. - The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market in July 2022, buying yen and selling dollars when fluctuations were deemed excessive [6]. - Despite the recent depreciation, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate, which has led to further yen depreciation and a stronger dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment indicates a lack of urgency within the government regarding the yen's depreciation, suggesting that the yen may continue to seek lower levels in the short term [6]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Sakuyuki acknowledged the rapid and one-sided nature of the yen's depreciation but supported the Bank of Japan's decision as reasonable under current circumstances [7].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility, reaching a nine-month high of 154.47 before a sharp decline due to verbal warnings from Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, indicating rising risks of currency intervention [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The USD/JPY fell nearly 100 points, trading at 153.1800 after previously rising by 0.33% [1] - Market participants are increasingly aware of the potential for Japanese government intervention in the currency market, although many believe that the likelihood of actual intervention in the short term remains low [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both noted that the immediate risk of yen intervention is low, even if the yen approaches the critical level of 155 JPY per USD [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that intervention risks will significantly increase if the USD/JPY reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America suggests that the exchange rate may first test 158 JPY per USD before any policy response is triggered [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY broke above the resistance level of 153.25-153.30 and stabilized above 154.00, which is seen as a key signal for a bullish trend [2] - If the exchange rate falls below the 154.00 level, it could undermine the recent bullish outlook and push the rate towards the 153.10-154.00 support range [2]