二是供需情况与估值结构。沥青自身基本面在2025年整体保持相对健康，尽管下半年价格持续下跌，但 库存去化效果较好，厂库及社会库库存率最终均落至较低水平，尤其是厂库库存持续处于低位。这也佐 证了为何2025年在炼厂利润相对丰厚的情况下，冬储价格仍超预期偏高。在此背景下，若2026年上半年 需求未被证伪，市场大概率仍会像2025年一样，围绕低库存和供给偏紧逻辑进行交易。但我们认为，所 谓沥青生产原料收紧的逻辑缺乏现实支撑。事件发生后，市场并未出现激进采购，原料贴水也未出现大 幅溢价，整体保持相对稳定，甚至其他替代原油也未见集中采购现象，这说明地方炼厂在中短期内原料 供应并无明显缺口。 从历史经验来看，国内最终并未因原料短缺而长期停产导致供应紧张，原料偏紧作为价格上涨的驱动因 素并不稳固。 2026年开年以来，石油及沥青市场表现相对稳健。从期现货价格走势看，沥青期货主力合约在元旦假期 后首个交易日开盘溢价最高超过200元／吨，最终收涨111元／吨。现货市场同样在节后第一个交易日大 幅上涨，平均涨幅普遍在130~150元／吨。与此同时，沥青估值也显著抬升。尽管元旦假期后首个交易 日原油价格下跌，但沥青价格却逆势大涨， ...

[T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 沥青：看跌 年度报告——沥青 需求难有起色，关注成本寻底节奏 能 ★美制裁措施对原料进口影响有限 源 与 碳 中 和 今年，美国对委内瑞拉及俄罗斯制裁措施频出，冲击原油贸易流格 局。在美国对委内瑞拉油轮制裁措施波及范围不进一步扩大的前提 下，Merey 原油断供风险较低。且由于地方炼厂原油进口灵活性较 高，沥青生产原料供应总体稳定，即便 Merey 原油进口短期明显受 阻，也可以转向非制裁油或海上大量滞留的其他制裁油。此外，巴 西 Buzios 以及 Mero 等油种也是今年下半年以来山东地区重要的中 质及重质原油补充，且南美盐下油田仍处于扩产阶段。 ★投资建议 在供需双弱的背景下，成本端的扰动是明年更为重要的关注点，今 年原油市场的供应压力至少会持续到明年上半年，而下半年供应或 同比小幅下降。尽管 OPEC+在 2026 年一季度暂停增产，美国页岩 油供应增速也逐渐放缓，但巴西、加拿大和圭亚那等国家将成为明 年重要的供应增长点；另外，今年下半年激增的原油海上库存也对 油价的反弹空间形成压制，一旦庞大的在途库存逐渐转化为陆上库 存，或者浮仓找到合适的买家从而向市场加速释放， ...

12月22日盘中，沥青期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3011.00元。截止发稿，沥青主力合 约报3003.00元，涨幅2.84%。 沥青期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 沥青短期价格有所提振 沥青供应有所增加，库存去化幅度继续放缓，淡季需求持续收缩，冬储驱动仍有限，短期沥青价格呈现 震荡运行。 东海期货：中长期沥青自身仍然较为承压 委内瑞拉地缘叙事再起，沥青原料成本或大幅抬升。另外近期冬储逐渐开始，虽然前尚无采购增量，部 分货源尝试高价货走货，但更多成交仍然偏低价货，但仍然对厂家库存形成一定程度去化，叠加前期炼 厂开工略有走低，整体过剩压力略有减少。中长期沥青自身仍然较为承压，继续关注原油成本变动情 况。 中辉期货：沥青短期价格有所提振 估值逐渐回归正常，成本端油价偏弱，关注南美地缘走势。成本端油价走势偏弱，南美地缘近期不确定 性上升，短期价格有所提振；沥青供需整体偏宽松，产量增速显著高于需求增速，需求端进入淡季，出 货量下降明显，当前裂解价差以及BU-FU价差逐渐回归正常水平，但仍有一定压缩空间。 国新国证期货：短期沥青价格呈现震荡运行 国新国证期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic asphalt futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract reported at 2917.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant decline of 2.38% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, asphalt operating rates increased by 3.0 percentage points week-on-week to 27.8%, which is still 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, marking the lowest level in recent years [1] - According to Longzhong Information, domestic asphalt production in December is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month-on-month, representing a reduction of 3.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 344,000 tons, or 13.8% [1] Group 3 - In terms of demand, Ruida Futures noted that good shipping conditions in most regions have led to an increase in enterprise shipment volumes, while the North China region has seen work stoppages due to low temperatures, and demand in Central and South China has kept the modified asphalt capacity utilization rate stable [1] Group 4 - Regarding inventory, Zhonghui Futures reported that as of the week ending December 2, the social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons week-on-week, with Shandong's social inventory at 220,000 tons, down by 7,000 tons [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, Everbright Futures expressed that recent asphalt prices have been fluctuating around 3000 yuan/ton, showing some support; however, there is a possibility that declining oil prices may further drag down asphalt prices, leading to a short-term outlook of continued low-level fluctuations [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil price has no support, the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3043 yuan/ton, the highest was 3068 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3024 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.56%, and the trading volume was 18.79 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3046 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3037 yuan/ton, the highest was 3060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3022 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.78%, and the trading volume was 8.55 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to resume asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air has affected most parts of China again, with road demand in the Northeast and Northwest stagnant, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources in the Shandong market is abundant, some refineries are eager to sell contracts to preempt market demand in advance, and the quotes of some brand resources by traders have been lowered, leading to a continued downward trend in prices [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The demand in the East China market continued to be weak and stable, the social inventory shipments were stable and the inventory decreased, and the overall inventory of refineries also decreased as some refineries had previously shut down. However, the asphalt production of Zhenhai and Jinling was large at the end of the month, the overall market supply was abundant, and the truck - transportation price of the main refinery in Ningbo was lowered today, so the price in the East China market is expected to decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

Market Overview - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market is expected to be 3375 CNY/ton on November 17, reflecting a decrease of 32 CNY/ton, or 0.94% from the previous day [1] - The total operating rate of asphalt in China has decreased by 0.7% to 29.0%, while the operating rate in Shandong has increased by 6.8% to 35.4% [1] - Social inventory among 70 sample enterprises is reported at 825,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,000 tons [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil [2] - Refineries are releasing a significant amount of low-priced forward contracts, leading to substantial pressure on spot prices [3] - The operating rate may slightly decline due to profit margins falling, and adverse weather conditions are expected to limit downstream demand in certain regions [3] Price Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with weak spot prices and a neutral basis for asphalt in Shandong [2] - Given the dual decline in supply and demand, with supply decreasing at a slower rate than demand, the outlook for asphalt prices remains bearish [3]

Group 1 - The domestic crude oil futures market showed a strong performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a price increase of 2.34%, reaching a high of 3234.00 yuan/ton [1] - Industry data for the third week of October indicates an increase in both supply and demand from refineries, although the absolute demand remains low, aligning with historical lows [1] - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term, with price support at the bottom due to stable inventory levels [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, demand in the northern regions is expected to decline as temperatures drop, while southern regions may see a boost in consumption once rainfall decreases [2] - The recent trial reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not expanded further, leading to price disparities in the southern regions due to restrictions from crude oil quotas and consumption taxes [2] - Overall, the current peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations, and there is a focus on upcoming macroeconomic meetings for potential demand growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is currently experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term due to low terminal demand and unstable cost support from international crude oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 11, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory remained stable at 39,350 tons, while the warehouse futures inventory was also unchanged at 42,950 tons [1]. - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.9% for the week ending July 9, reflecting a 0.8% increase week-on-week, with a weekly asphalt production of 566,000 tons, up 2.4% from the previous week [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, marking a 1.0% increase week-on-week [1]. - The planned production volume for asphalt refineries nationwide in July is expected to remain consistent with May and June levels, with the East China region experiencing an earlier end to the rainy season compared to previous years, providing a favorable market condition [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that oil prices are operating within a range, and asphalt prices are expected to remain volatile. Recent shipping volumes have significantly decreased, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The demand during the peak season has not exceeded market expectations, and attention should be paid to inventory depletion in the short term [2]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the current asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the operating load of enterprises is low, changes are limited. The terminal demand remains sluggish, leading to a cautious market sentiment among downstream users and traders. The cost support from international crude oil prices is also unstable, suggesting that asphalt prices will likely continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for asphalt has shown significant activity, with the main contract opening at 3493.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3532.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.44% [1] - As of June 10, the total shipment volume of asphalt from 54 domestic enterprises was 434,000 tons, representing a week-on-week decrease of 4.0%. Notably, the North China and East China regions experienced significant changes in shipment volumes [1] - The total inventory level of asphalt in domestic refineries is at 30.29%, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%, while the social inventory rate is at 34.80%, with a slight increase of 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that asphalt futures prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, with supply remaining at a low to medium level and demand aligning with seasonal trends [2] - Current operating rates for asphalt enterprises are at a relatively high level for the year, but still low compared to previous years, indicating a subdued overall demand [2] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are expected to influence asphalt prices, with recommendations for a cautious trading approach focusing on market oscillations [2]