【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年3月6日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升1.9个百分点至23.3%，较去年同期低了3.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年3月份国内沥青预计排产218.7万吨，环比增加25.1万吨， 增幅为13.0%，同比减少4.3万吨，减幅为1.9%。本周，春节假期结束，下游逐步复工，沥青下游各行 业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨4个百分点至8%，仍低于1月底水平。本周，山东地 区炼厂复产，且价格持续上涨推动下游备货情绪升温，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 19.86%至15.63万吨，处于偏低水平。春节假期刚结束，下游尚未完全复产，沥青厂库增加较多，但 沥青炼厂库存率仍处于近年来同期的最低位。山东地区沥青价格跟涨，但基差处于偏低水平。委内 瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多 中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，国内炼厂获得 委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计委内瑞拉原油流向印度市场增加，中国进口委内瑞拉原油 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 今日沥青期货2604合约上涨0.51%至3373元/吨，5日均线上方，最低价在3324元/吨，最高价 3374元/吨，持仓量增加4115至16054手。 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价维持在3210元/吨，沥青04合约基差下跌至-163元/吨，处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026年2月11日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows crude oil fluctuations [6] - Demand in various regions is gradually weakening due to cooling and approaching the Spring Festival, but supported by low inventory and supply, spot prices remain stable, showing a supply - demand dual - weak situation [6] - There are still expectations of a raw material shortage and cost increase in the long - term asphalt market [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On February 9, 2026, compared with February 6, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) fell 52 points to 3334, a decline of 1.54%; BU2604 fell 54 points to 3347, a decline of 1.59%; BU2605 fell 48 points to 3341, a decline of 1.42%; SC2603 fell 1.2 points to 464.2, a decline of 0.26%; Brent first - line fell 1 point to 67.34, a decline of 1.49%. The main contract position decreased by 1.6 million hands to 6.7 million hands, a decline of 18.95%, and the trading volume decreased by 3.9 million hands to 12.3 million hands, a decline of 24.22%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 40,070 tons [2] - **Basis and Spread**: BU04 - 05 decreased by 6 points to 6, a decline of 50%; BU04 - 03 increased by 2 points to - 13, an increase of 13.33%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 24 points to - 7, an increase of 77.42%; the East - China - main contract basis increased by 64 points to - 87, an increase of 42.38%; the South - China - main contract basis increased by 54 points to - 37, an increase of 59.34% [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price fell 30 points to 3210, a decline of 0.93%; the East - China market price increased 10 points to 3260, an increase of 0.31%; the South - China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline increased 13 points to 7183, an increase of 0.18%; Shandong diesel fell 35 points to 5613, a decline of 0.62%; Shandong petroleum coke fell 20 points to 2760, a decline of 0.72%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price fell 0.01 to 6.9523, a decline of 0.10% [2] - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit increased 27.44 to - 50.98, an increase of 34.99%; the refined - oil comprehensive profit increased 37.03 to - 99.38, an increase of 27.14%; the BU - SC cracking decreased 39.03 to - 426.71, a decline of 10.07%; the gasoline spot - Brent increased 68.12 to 734.38, an increase of 10.23%; the diesel spot - Brent increased 25.65 to 35, an increase of 274.27% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: On February 9, the domestic asphalt market average price remained unchanged at 3324 yuan/ton. In the north, terminal projects were stagnant, and prices were stable. In the south, the rush - work demand decreased, and prices were firm. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3220 - 3230 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3260 - 3260 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: The asphalt market follows crude oil due to geopolitical factors. Demand is weakening, but low inventory and supply support stable prices. There are still expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases in the long - term [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides charts including BU main - contract closing price, BU main - contract position, East - China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline, and Shandong refinery diesel [9]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market has shown relative stability at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both futures and spot markets despite a drop in crude oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main asphalt futures contract opened with a premium exceeding 200 yuan/ton after the New Year holiday, ultimately rising by 111 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot market also experienced a substantial increase, with average price rises between 130 to 150 yuan/ton [1]. - The valuation of asphalt has significantly increased, with the asphalt-to-Brent crude oil ratio rising above 1.03 for futures and reaching 1.02 for spot prices, both at historically high seasonal levels [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market fundamentals remained relatively healthy in 2025, with effective inventory reduction leading to low inventory levels, particularly in factory stocks [2]. - Despite high profits for refineries in 2025, the winter storage prices were unexpectedly high, indicating a tight supply situation [2]. - There is a potential for significant contraction in asphalt demand in 2026, which could lead to increased production by refineries due to current high profit margins [2]. Group 3: Price Pressures and Future Outlook - The recent rapid increase in asphalt prices has likely already reflected positive expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicators, which could downgrade demand expectations and weaken valuation support [3]. - The ability to maintain price premiums will largely depend on fluctuations in crude oil costs, with the current crude oil market lacking a clear breakout logic [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for asphalt is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly due to financial constraints on road projects and shrinking housing new construction areas. The cost side will be a more important concern. Oil prices will face supply pressure at least in the first half of 2026, and the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, the price may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [3][70][71] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Annual Review of Asphalt Market - **Domestic Supply Increase and Resilient Imports**: From January to November 2025, the national petroleum asphalt production reached 26.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in supply was mainly due to the decline in international oil prices and the widening discount of diluted asphalt. Local refineries' production was more volatile, with an output of 14.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, while the output of major refineries was 12.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.02%. In the same period, the domestic asphalt import volume reached 3.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with Middle Eastern asphalt gradually squeezing the market share of Southeast Asian countries [17][26] - **Demand Growth Driven by Road Project Deliveries**: In 2025, as the end - year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, road construction projects entered the concentrated delivery period. From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt reached 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25%, with a 25% year - on - year increase in the third quarter. However, highway investment continued to decline, and the waterproofing market demand was weak due to the low real - estate climate [28] 2. Persistent Tight Funds, Road Demand Hard to Improve Substantially - **New Road Construction**: Most road construction projects rely on government fiscal funds or special bonds. Currently, local governments face significant financial pressure, making it difficult for project funds to be in place in a timely manner. Although the new special bond issuance increased in 2025, the funds available for new road projects continued to shrink [37][38] - **Road Maintenance**: The maintenance funds for expressways and ordinary national and provincial roads are facing shortages. The establishment of toll stations can only meet their own funding needs, and the overall road maintenance fund gap will exist for a long time [40] 3. Refineries without Quotas Gradually Exit, No Excessive Concerns about Raw Material Imports - **Exit of Refineries without Quotas under New Consumption Tax Deduction Policy**: Since 2025, Shandong Province has adjusted the consumption tax deduction policy for local refineries, which has led to an increase in asphalt production costs. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 40% year - on - year, and many small and medium - sized local refineries without quotas have stopped production [43][44] - **Limited Impact of US Sanctions on Raw Material Imports**: Although the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, the supply of asphalt raw materials remains stable overall. In 2025, the import of Merey crude oil increased significantly, and other oil types such as Urals, Buzios, and Mero also became important supplements [52][54] 4. International Oil Prices are Still Suppressed by Supply Release, Cost - Side Rebound is Restricted - **Supply Growth in Non - US and Non - OPEC+ Countries**: In 2026, the global crude oil production is expected to reach 79.55 million barrels per day, with non - US and non - OPEC+ countries contributing an incremental supply of 230,000 barrels per day. Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will be the main sources of supply growth [61] - **Inventory Pressure**: Since September 2025, the global crude oil floating storage has increased sharply. If the floating storage is released into the market, it will put pressure on oil prices in the first half of 2026 [67] 5. Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline in the first half of the year. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, it may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [71]

Group 1 - The main contract for asphalt futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3011.00 yuan, with a current price of 3003.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.84% [1] - Short-term price of asphalt is supported by a gradual return to normal valuation and weak oil prices on the cost side, while geopolitical uncertainties in South America are also a factor [2] - The overall supply and demand for asphalt is relatively loose, with production growth significantly outpacing demand growth, leading to a noticeable decline in shipment volumes [2] Group 2 - Short-term asphalt prices are expected to exhibit fluctuating trends due to increased supply and a slowdown in inventory reduction, alongside a continuous contraction in demand during the off-season [3] - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela may lead to a significant increase in raw material costs for asphalt, while winter storage is beginning, although there is currently no increase in procurement [4] - Despite some attempts to sell high-priced goods, most transactions remain at lower price points, which helps to reduce inventory levels for manufacturers [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic asphalt futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract reported at 2917.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant decline of 2.38% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, asphalt operating rates increased by 3.0 percentage points week-on-week to 27.8%, which is still 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, marking the lowest level in recent years [1] - According to Longzhong Information, domestic asphalt production in December is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month-on-month, representing a reduction of 3.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 344,000 tons, or 13.8% [1] Group 3 - In terms of demand, Ruida Futures noted that good shipping conditions in most regions have led to an increase in enterprise shipment volumes, while the North China region has seen work stoppages due to low temperatures, and demand in Central and South China has kept the modified asphalt capacity utilization rate stable [1] Group 4 - Regarding inventory, Zhonghui Futures reported that as of the week ending December 2, the social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons week-on-week, with Shandong's social inventory at 220,000 tons, down by 7,000 tons [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, Everbright Futures expressed that recent asphalt prices have been fluctuating around 3000 yuan/ton, showing some support; however, there is a possibility that declining oil prices may further drag down asphalt prices, leading to a short-term outlook of continued low-level fluctuations [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil price has no support, the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3043 yuan/ton, the highest was 3068 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3024 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.56%, and the trading volume was 18.79 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3046 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3037 yuan/ton, the highest was 3060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3022 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.78%, and the trading volume was 8.55 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to resume asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air has affected most parts of China again, with road demand in the Northeast and Northwest stagnant, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources in the Shandong market is abundant, some refineries are eager to sell contracts to preempt market demand in advance, and the quotes of some brand resources by traders have been lowered, leading to a continued downward trend in prices [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The demand in the East China market continued to be weak and stable, the social inventory shipments were stable and the inventory decreased, and the overall inventory of refineries also decreased as some refineries had previously shut down. However, the asphalt production of Zhenhai and Jinling was large at the end of the month, the overall market supply was abundant, and the truck - transportation price of the main refinery in Ningbo was lowered today, so the price in the East China market is expected to decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

Market Overview - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market is expected to be 3375 CNY/ton on November 17, reflecting a decrease of 32 CNY/ton, or 0.94% from the previous day [1] - The total operating rate of asphalt in China has decreased by 0.7% to 29.0%, while the operating rate in Shandong has increased by 6.8% to 35.4% [1] - Social inventory among 70 sample enterprises is reported at 825,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,000 tons [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil [2] - Refineries are releasing a significant amount of low-priced forward contracts, leading to substantial pressure on spot prices [3] - The operating rate may slightly decline due to profit margins falling, and adverse weather conditions are expected to limit downstream demand in certain regions [3] Price Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with weak spot prices and a neutral basis for asphalt in Shandong [2] - Given the dual decline in supply and demand, with supply decreasing at a slower rate than demand, the outlook for asphalt prices remains bearish [3]

Group 1 - The domestic crude oil futures market showed a strong performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a price increase of 2.34%, reaching a high of 3234.00 yuan/ton [1] - Industry data for the third week of October indicates an increase in both supply and demand from refineries, although the absolute demand remains low, aligning with historical lows [1] - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term, with price support at the bottom due to stable inventory levels [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, demand in the northern regions is expected to decline as temperatures drop, while southern regions may see a boost in consumption once rainfall decreases [2] - The recent trial reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not expanded further, leading to price disparities in the southern regions due to restrictions from crude oil quotas and consumption taxes [2] - Overall, the current peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations, and there is a focus on upcoming macroeconomic meetings for potential demand growth [2]