投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 8644 | 8550 | -94 | -1.09 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8690 | 8676 | -14 | -0.16 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9923 | 9816 | -107 | -1.08 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10287 | 10140 | -147 | -1.43 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8256 | 8190 | -66 | -0.80 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8462 | 84 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market is expected to experience a slight rebound this week due to limited inventory pressure and planned shutdowns by some enterprises, despite the downward pressure from Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of last Thursday (November 6), the domestic first-grade soybean oil price was 8378 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The weekly average price was 8358 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 35 yuan/ton, or 0.42% [1]. - The soybean oil price was under pressure due to the accumulation of palm oil in Malaysia, but international soybean price increases provided cost support, limiting the price decline [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased, and demand has improved, providing support for the soybean oil market. As of October 31, port soybean oil inventory was 1.1808 million tons, down 3.27% from the previous period [3]. - The operating load rate of major soybean crushing enterprises has declined, leading to a decrease in soybean oil production. The total soybean crushing volume for the week was estimated at 2.0658 million tons, with soybean oil production around 371,800 tons, a decrease of 58,100 tons and 10,500 tons respectively from the previous week [3]. - Despite the weak soybean oil market last week, downstream markets increased purchases at lower prices, with the total transaction volume of scattered oil from major oil plants being approximately 90,300 tons, a slight increase of 12,400 tons from the previous period [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming release of the latest supply and demand data by Malaysia MPOB on November 10 is expected to show an increase in palm oil production and inventory for October, which may negatively impact the oilseed market and limit soybean oil price increases [3]. - However, due to increased shutdowns for maintenance by some enterprises, soybean oil supply is expected to be limited, and the strong pricing mentality among enterprises suggests that soybean oil may experience a volatile upward trend this week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week. Palm oil prices declined, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices increased. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, overseas supply, and demand [4][27]. - Different short - and long - term trends are expected for each oil. Palm oil may be weak in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; soybean oil will fluctuate widely in the short - term and its price center may move up in the long - term; rapeseed oil will be slightly strong in the short - term and maintain a wide - range oscillation in the long - term [30][35][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 31 to November 7, 2025, palm oil futures closed down 1.19%, with a spot price decline of 0.66%; soybean oil futures rose 0.69%, with a spot price increase of 0.60%; rapeseed oil futures rose 1.18%, with a spot price increase of 1.42% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 317 yuan/ton (an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 28 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the YP spread was - 476 yuan/ton (an increase of 160 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 3.80 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills decreased to 59.28 tons; the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills decreased to 121.58 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased to 184.66 tons [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - As of November 6, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8973 yuan/ton (a decrease of 101 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the import gross profit was - 281 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week). From November 1 - 5, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.80% month - on - month [13]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.90 tons (a decrease of 10.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 710.79 tons (a decrease of 40.4 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 54% (a decrease of 7% from the previous week). As of November 6, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 550.35 yuan/ton (an increase of 54.55 yuan/ton from the previous week) [18]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 1 ton (a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week). As of November 7, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2346.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 244 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 29,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 321.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 46.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 tons [26]. 3.6 Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and the progress of China - Canada trade relations is being watched. - Overseas: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. The October palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories decreased. - Inventory: As of October 31, the inventories of the three major oils all decreased. - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed mixed trends this week [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations 3.7.1 Palm Oil - Short - term: Weak operation, pay attention to market volatility risks after the release of the MPOB report next week. - Long - term: After bottom - hunting in oscillation, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [29][30]. 3.7.2 Soybean Oil - Short - term: Wide - range oscillation, waiting for the details of China's soybean purchases from the US. - Long - term: The price center is expected to move up, but the upward space and rhythm will be affected by multiple factors [34][35]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Slightly strong oscillation. - Long - term: Maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern under the tight supply - demand balance [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [10] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. Looking ahead, soybean oil may face supply pressure and its basis may be under pressure; palm oil is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October; rapeseed oil may face supply shortages after the National Day, and its basis is firm, with the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter expected to provide some support [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,236 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 yuan or 0.86%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 166 yuan or 1.99%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 94 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,190 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60 yuan or 0.65%, and the spot basis was P01 - 46, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 130 yuan or 1.53%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 218, a week-on-week increase of 36 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 90 yuan or 0.87%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 218, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. During the week of September 19 - 25, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, all with a shipment date of October, and 1 vessel was cancelled, with a shipment date of November [2] - Demand: As of the week of September 25, the trading volume of palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8,634 tons, an increase of 5,391 tons or 166.23% from the previous week [2] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 58.51 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64 tons or 8.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28 tons or 23.87% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month-on-month increase of 609,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January - August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 73.312 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4%. It is estimated that 10.3 million tons will arrive in September, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of vessels for the September - October shipment period has basically been completed, but the purchase progress for the November - January shipment period is slow [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil at key domestic oil mills was 75,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 15,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17.58% [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2359 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,300 tons or 1.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 105,700 tons or 9.35% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of September 19, the rapeseed crushing volume at coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. After the implementation of the anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will generally face a shortage of raw materials after the National Day, leading to a shutdown wave in the industry. Currently, the market is pinning its hopes on the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed [4] - Demand: In September, the rigid demand brought by the start of the school term boosted the consumption of oils, and the market's pick-up pace significantly accelerated [5] - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory at coastal oil mills was 75,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - This week, the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. The temporary exemption of export tariffs on agricultural products in Argentina at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices, and palm oil was also dragged down. Rapeseed oil continued to perform strongly due to factors such as tight rapeseed supply, stagnant imports of Canadian rapeseed, and continuous destocking of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [5] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The supply pressure may continue, and the basis may face pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-US trade relations [6] - Palm oil: It is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October [7] - Rapeseed oil: After the National Day, it may face supply shortages, and the basis is firm. The traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-Canadian trade relations [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The USDA unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area, and the prices of the three major oils oscillated upward. Despite a record - high yield per unit, the significant reduction in the planting area led the USDA to lower the soybean production forecast. With the bullish impact of the USDA report and the conclusion of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the overall situation provided some support for the oil market, causing the oil prices to strengthen [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9424.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan and a change rate of +0.66%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8576.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.18%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 10064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +262.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.67% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.61%. The spot basis was P09 + 46.00, with a month - on - month change of +88.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8680.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.28%. The spot basis was Y09 + 104.00, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10170.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.62%. The spot basis was OI09 + 106.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Export Tax - Malaysia raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [2] Soybean and Rapeseed Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 498 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 542 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 532 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Oil Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1146 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1138 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] USDA Forecast - The USDA expected the soybean yield per unit in the United States in the 2025/26 season to reach 53.6 bushels per acre, higher than the July forecast of 52.5 bushels and the analyst's expectation of 52.9 bushels. The USDA significantly cut the soybean planting area forecast from 83.4 million acres in July to 80.9 million acres, and lowered the soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated and rose. The market is worried that the ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the cost of imported rapeseed, pushing up oil prices. Coupled with the positive expectations of the palm oil B50 plan, the overall oil market is oscillating strongly [1][3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to increase significantly. India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar, while palm oil and sunflower oil imports are expected to decline. China's edible vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are estimated to be adjusted, and the supply - demand forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged. Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas is beneficial for peanut production [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9362.00 yuan/ton, a change of +144 yuan or +1.56%; the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8476.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.43%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9802.00 yuan/ton, a change of +214.00 yuan or +2.23% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9320.00 yuan/ton, a change of +320.00 yuan or +3.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 42.00, a change of +176.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8570.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 94.00, a change of - 16.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +210.00 yuan or +2.16%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a change of - 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase from the same period last month [2] - China has made a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations of imported rapeseed from Canada and will implement temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposits starting from August 14, 2025 [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar 60% to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [2] - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China's edible vegetable oil imports are estimated to be 7.56 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. Palm oil imports are reduced by 400,000 tons, soybean oil imports by 50,000 tons, and rapeseed oil and other vegetable oil imports are increased by 100,000 tons and 180,000 tons respectively [2] - The supply - demand forecast for China's edible vegetable oil in the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged from the previous month [2] - Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas such as Henan, Hebei, and Shandong is beneficial for peanut production [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, basis changes, inventory levels, supply - demand situations of domestic three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil), and provides short - and medium - long - term price forecasts for palm oil [2][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, the palm oil futures主力合约 (P2509) decreased by 0.29% to 8910, and the spot price decreased by 0.04% to 9012; the rapeseed oil futures主力合约 (OI2509) increased by 0.71% to 9524, and the spot price increased by 0.33% to 9622; the soybean oil futures主力合约 (Y2509) increased by 1.60% to 8274, and the spot price increased by 0.48% to 8454 [2]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 262 yuan/ton (increased by 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), 111 yuan/ton (increased by 13 yuan/ton), and 112 yuan/ton (increased by 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 1, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (increased by 158 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 9.55 tons (increased by 0.30 tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory in factories was 61.55 tons (increased by 2.41 tons), the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills was 108.81 tons (decreased by 0.37 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 179.91 tons (increased by 2.34 tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [16]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons (increased by 0.106 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 6.4559 million tons (increased by 0.0335 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 58% (increased by 3%). As of August 1, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 722.05 yuan/ton (decreased by 0.85 yuan/ton from the previous week) [21]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons (decreased by 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 1, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 295.20 yuan/ton (increased by 39.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 200 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 352.24 dollars/ton (decreased by 12 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [32]. 3.6 Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US biodiesel policy is favorable. - Overseas: According to the USDA June report, the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production of Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of July 25, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 95,500 tons, the palm oil commercial inventory in factories increased to 615,500 tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 1.0881 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.04%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.48%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.33%. - Risks: The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation 3.7.1 Palm Oil Single - week Summary - This week, palm oil slightly declined by 0.02%. From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year. Since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively. The EU may allow Indonesian palm oil to enter its market at zero - tariff with a quota system. The BMD crude palm oil futures ended a two - day rising trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 9.6% compared to June. India set the reference price for crude palm oil exports in August at 910.91 dollars/ton, higher than 877.89 dollars/ton in July [35]. 3.7.2 Price Forecast - Short - term: Palm oil is hovering around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8750 - 9050. - Medium - long - term: The palm oil主力合约 has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise. The expected fluctuation range is 8600 - 9400 [36]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [37].