油脂日报 | 2025-08-26 马棕高价或抑制需求，价格震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9582.00元/吨，环比变化-10元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8488.00 元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.35%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9891.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9550.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.74%，现货基差P01+-32.00，环比变 化+80.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8620.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.94%，现货基差Y01+132.00， 环比变化+50.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10010.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差 OI01+119.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚8月1-25日的棕榈油出口量为1065005吨，上月 同期为914924吨，环比增加16.4%。据国家粮油信息中心监测，目前我国10月船期大豆采购超7成， ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-26投资咨询部 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9638，基差56，现货升水期货。中性 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市 场。棕榈油P2601：9400-9800附近区间震荡 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of oils and fats is weak and a callback is expected, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][10][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price is 8394 with a decrease of 20. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8574, 8694, and 8494 respectively, and the basis in these regions is 300, 180, and 100. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 9500 with a decrease of 54. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9480, 9480, and 9630 respectively, and the basis is - 20, - 20, and 130. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9791 with a decrease of 37. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9901, 9841, and the basis is 110 and 50 [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans is 294 with an increase of 4; for palm oil, it is 296 with a decrease of 10; for rapeseed oil, it is 161 with an increase of 16 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1106 with an increase of 34; the OI - Y spread is 1397 with a decrease of 17; the OI - P spread is 291 with an increase of 17; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70 with an increase of 0.03 [3] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for September shipment is 1129, and the disk profit is - 216. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for September shipment is 1040, and the disk profit is - 485 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 114.3 million tons, the palm oil inventory is 61.7 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 66 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: Palm oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil increased by 1.75 million tons to 61.73 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.92%. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported purchase of one ship. The short - term palm oil may experience a callback. Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 233.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.50 million tons to 114.27 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.44%. The short - term soybean oil will be more resistant to decline. Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 4.48 million tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 66 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported cancellation of near - month rapeseed contracts. The short - term rapeseed oil will maintain a large - range shock [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to have weak upward momentum and experience a callback, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices [12] - **Arbitrage**: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback [12] - **Options**: On the sidelines [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils [16][19]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | | | 华东三级菜油：8 月：OI2601+110，9-10 月：OI2601+200，8-9 月：OI601+160(非 转)华东转一级菜油：8 月：OI2601+180。华东市场豆油基差价格：现货：Y2601+80， 9 月：Y2601+100，10-11 月：Y2601+160，10-1 月：Y2601+210。东莞各厂 24 度 01-80。 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].

油脂日报 | 2025-08-15 菜籽进口结构或改变，菜油冲高回落 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9368.00元/吨，环比变化-56元，幅度-0.59%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8520.00 元/吨，环比变化-56.00元，幅度-0.65%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9840.00元/吨，环比变化-224.00元，幅度-2.23%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9310.00元/吨，环比变化-160.00元，幅度-1.69%，现货基差P01+-58.00，环比变 化-104.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8630.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.58%，现货基差Y01+110.00， 环比变化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9950.00元/吨，环比变化-220.00元，幅度-2.16%，现货基差 OI01+110.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(9月船期)C&F价格460美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调3美元/吨；美西大豆(9月船 期)C&F价格454美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调3美元/吨；巴西大豆(10月船期)C&F价格4 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | 前结算价: | 开盘价 : | 成高价 : | 童低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | :成交量: | | 持企業 持企管要化 | | --- ...

豆油：美豆偏强，豆油高位震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,424 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | （夜盘） 收盘价 9,486 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,592 | 1.23% | 8,554 | -0.44% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 10,069 | 2.72% | 9,976 | -0.92% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,435 | 0.80% | 4,436 | 0.02% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.40 | 0.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 384,052 | -58978 | 226,780 | -43,883 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 183,673 | 43,470 | 261,043 | -45,207 | | | ...

Report Information - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the policy of increasing customs duty deposit on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8% and imposing 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oil cake from Canada since March 20, 2025, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [6] - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible reduction of soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand, the long - term outlook is positive [6] - Palm oil is boosted by the increase in exports and continues to strengthen [6] - The three major domestic oils have little room for significant short - term decline, with a bullish view, and it is recommended to hold far - month basis [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10, 2025 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons from July 1 - 10 [7] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on imported rapeseed from Canada. It was initially determined that there was dumping, and from August 14, 2025, importers should provide corresponding margin according to the determined margin ratio [7] 2. Data Overview - Various price and basis data are presented, including the basis price of Dongguan third - grade and first - grade rapeseed oil, the basis price of soybean oil in the East China market, and the basis price of 24 - degree palm oil in the East and South China markets [6] - Multiple charts show the spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [9][17][19]

1、巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）周二公布数据显示，巴西 8 月大豆出口量预计触 及 880 万吨，之前一周预估为 815 万吨。 2、美国农业部 8 月供需报告：8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆种植面积预期 8090 万英亩， 7 月预期为 8340 万英亩，环比减少 250 万英亩；8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆产量预期 42.92 亿蒲式耳，7 月预期为 43.35 亿蒲式耳，环比减少 0.43 亿蒲式耳。 3、印度政府数据显示，截至 8 月 8 日，油籽播种面积同比下降 4%，而玉米面积则增长 10.5%，创历史新高。业内人士预计，若趋势持续，未来六至七年食用油进口可能超过 2000 万吨，加剧全球供应紧张并推高价格。 油脂：多重利多叠加 油脂持续走强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | | | 数据 信 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令 ...