研究员：孙海洋/张彤 机构：天风证券 三十年稳步扩张，产业链日趋完善 公司成立于1995 年，总部位于中国广东省东莞市，2006 年于香港联交所主板上市，目前为全球产能第 一的造纸集团和浆纸一体化的龙头企业，主要产品为各类环保包装纸、文化纸、高档全木浆纸及其上下 游产业链。集团现有造纸设计年产能超过2300 万吨，经历三十年发展，公司从包装主业向上下游浆纸 产业链不断延伸。 公司：聚焦浆纸一体发展，产业链布局成效显现 产能规模上，近年公司在行业底部逆势扩张，截至2025 年6 月30 日，公司造纸及木浆年设计产能接近 2900 万吨，FY2022-FY2025 造纸新增产能超过500 万吨，产能CAGR 达到9%，木浆新增产能超过450 万吨，浆纸扩张节奏基本匹配。产品结构上，公司坚持丰富拓展高档牛卡纸、白卡纸等高门槛、高盈利 的高端产品，伴随规模效应显现，近年吨纸成本下降较为明显，FY2025 吨盈利触底改善。产业链方 面，在全面禁废背景下，公司全力推进浆纸一体建设，我们预计截至25 年底，公司将拥有70 万吨再生 浆产能、200 余万吨木纤维产能以及540 余万吨木浆产能；未来在重庆、天津、广西北海等地仍 ...

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Group 1 - The company, Jiu Long Paper, is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion CNY for FY26-28, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [1] - The company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, evolving from a packaging-focused business to a comprehensive pulp and paper industry chain [1] - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion CNY for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to grow, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for box paper and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [2] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2] - The Guangdong Paper Association has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to resist low-price competition and optimize capacity structure, indicating a positive shift in industry direction [2] Group 3 - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% for new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton production costs [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons in raw materials by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [3]

Core Insights - The paper industry cluster in Rizhao has achieved an annual output value exceeding 20 billion yuan, supported by 35 regulated enterprises [2][4] - The cluster is characterized by advanced technology and a focus on green and intelligent production methods, exemplified by the operations of Asia Pacific Senbo [2][5] Group 1: Industry Overview - Rizhao's paper industry cluster includes leading companies like Asia Pacific Senbo and Huatai Paper, which have transformed from single-product manufacturers to comprehensive industrial parks [3][5] - The cluster's production capabilities include 2.35 million tons of wood pulp, 600,000 tons of white cardboard, 500,000 tons of cultural paper, 150,000 tons of household paper, and 30,000 tons of lyocell fiber annually [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Asia Pacific Senbo operates the world's fastest paper machine, producing paper at a speed of 1,800 meters per minute, with automated systems ensuring quality control [2][3] - Huatai Paper has developed high-transparency stretchable paper that can replace plastic in various packaging applications, achieving a domestic market share of over 20% for high-end packaging paper [3][4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The development of the paper industry cluster has created thousands of jobs and supported over 1,000 enterprises in Shandong province, forming a complete supply chain [4][5] - The cluster is projected to produce 2.6 million tons of pulp and 1.6 million tons of paper products in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.94% in output value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuzhou Special Paper, is actively progressing on multiple investment projects aimed at enhancing its production capabilities and market position in the specialty paper industry, with significant financial commitments outlined for each project [8][10][29]. Investment Overview - The company has signed contracts for a pulp and paper integration project in Hanchuan City with a total investment of 17.3 billion RMB, targeting an annual production capacity of 4.49 million tons [8][9]. - In Jiangxi Province, the company is investing approximately 864 million RMB in a public terminal project, with additional investments planned for a chemical pulp project amounting to 2.94 billion RMB [10][11][20]. - The company is also involved in a pulp and paper integration project in Wuxue City, with an estimated total investment of 23 billion RMB, aiming for an annual production capacity of 6.6 million tons [13][25]. Project Progress - As of the latest updates, the Hanchuan project has established several subsidiaries to facilitate its implementation, and two specialty paper production lines have commenced operations [14][17]. - The public terminal project in Jiangxi is progressing as planned, with foundational work completed and ongoing construction of bridge components [20]. - The chemical pulp project in Jiangxi has completed all preliminary procedures and is preparing for civil construction [24]. Financial Guarantees - The company has provided a guarantee of up to 1 billion RMB to its subsidiary, Wuzhou Special Paper (Hubei), to support its credit operations with Guangfa Bank, ensuring the subsidiary's operational stability [30][34]. - The total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to approximately 74.73 billion RMB, representing 211.64% of the company's latest audited net assets [34].

Summary of Jiulong Paper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Jiulong Paper's sales remained strong, with sales exceeding 2 million tons in both July and August, maintaining low inventory levels [2][4] - The industry is shifting from price competition to quality competition, benefiting leading companies like Jiulong Paper [2][4] - Finished paper prices have started to rise more than waste paper prices, indicating a positive seasonal trend [2][5] Company Performance - Jiulong Paper's overall profitability has remained stable despite challenges in the cultural paper market, where profit per ton has decreased [2][7] - The white card paper business has reached breakeven, with total capacity expected to exceed 3 million tons [2][8] - The growth in profitability in the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to the development of the wood pulp business, with significant contributions from the Beihai and Hubei bases [2][10] Financial Metrics - The average cost of pulp production is below 3,000 RMB per ton, with plans to stop purchasing external wood pulp by 2026 [3][20] - The company has seen a decrease in profit margins for cultural paper, with profit per ton dropping from 700-800 RMB to 500-600 RMB [7] - The profitability of card and corrugated paper products is similar, around 80-90 RMB per ton [21] Future Outlook - The cultural paper market is expected to remain under pressure until the end of 2025, despite efforts to increase export orders [2][7] - The Beihai and Hubei bases are projected to continue ramping up production in the second half of 2025, with profitability expected to be demonstrated in FY26 [11] - The company plans to invest approximately 75-80 billion RMB in three new pulp lines, with a significant portion of the capital expenditure allocated for existing projects [12][13] Cost Management - Jiulong Paper has implemented measures to control financial costs, including repaying perpetual bonds and issuing new bonds at lower interest rates [25] - The company is also considering various options for handling its perpetual bonds, with a decision expected in 2026 [26] Management Changes - Recent management changes include the resignation of the chairman's son and the chairman's niece, who were involved in government relations and financial matters [27] Key Challenges - The cultural paper market faces challenges due to slow economic recovery and increased production capacity [2][7] - The company is dealing with external pressures from rising waste paper costs and competition in the market [4][5] Conclusion - Jiulong Paper is navigating a complex market landscape with a focus on quality competition and strategic investments in production capacity, while managing costs and addressing challenges in specific product segments.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating strong operational performance and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 63.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% - Net profit was 2.202 billion yuan, up 177.3% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.767 billion yuan, an increase of 135.4% after deducting approximately 400 million yuan in perpetual bond interest - Sales volume for FY25 was 21.5 million tons, a growth of 9.6% [1]. Segment Performance - In FY25, revenue from various paper products was as follows: - Corrugated paper: 33.344 billion yuan (+9.1%) - Grey bottom white paper: 6.901 billion yuan (-15.3%) - White card paper: 3.723 billion yuan (+51.2%) - Cultural paper: 5.408 billion yuan (+30.8%) - The share of cultural paper and white card paper has significantly increased, benefiting from favorable competition dynamics [3]. Production Capacity and Raw Material Advantage - As of FY25, the company had 4.73 million tons of wood pulp capacity, with plans to increase this to 7.43 million tons by FY27 - The self-produced wood pulp provides a significant cost advantage compared to external sourcing, contributing positively to FY25H2 profitability [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The demand for corrugated paper is expected to improve due to a gradual recovery in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity from leading manufacturers - The pricing for corrugated paper and other products has shown signs of stabilization and potential upward movement, driven by supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY26-27 to 3.117 billion yuan and 3.759 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory - The projected PE ratios for FY26-28 are 7.9, 6.5, and 5.5, indicating attractive valuation levels [4].

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY26-27净利润预测，分别增加11%和15%至27.5亿和28.8亿元，维持跑赢行业评级，并将目标价上调17%至7港元 [1] Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 632.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit of 17.67 billion, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In 2HFY25, net profit was 12.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, driven by self-produced pulp benefits and reduced coal prices [1] Production and Sales - FY25 total sales volume was 21.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with core growth in牛卡纸 (110,000 tons), 白卡纸 (50,000 tons), and 文化纸 (40,000 tons) [1] - In 1HFY26, the company has launched 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with plans for an additional 350,000 tons of cultural paper [2] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits of 59 yuan/ton and 151 yuan/ton for 1HFY25 and 2HFY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising waste paper prices [3] - The company anticipates a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but expects a small recovery in profits for box board and corrugated paper from July to September [3] Capital Expenditure - FY25 capital expenditure was 14.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15% to 2.75 billion and 2.88 billion HKD respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 17% to 7 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25, the company achieved revenue of 63.241 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.297 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and reduced coal prices [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company reported total sales of 21.5 million tons for FY25, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with significant contributions from the production of corrugated paper, white card paper, and cultural paper [2] - The company has already launched 1.2 million tons of white card paper, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp in the first half of FY26, with plans for additional production [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 HKD and 151 HKD for the first and second halves of FY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising prices of recycled paper [3] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in profits for corrugated paper from July to September, despite potential increases in costs due to rising coal and recycled paper prices [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion HKD, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met prior forecasts, with revenue of 63.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] Performance Review - FY25 revenue reached 63.241 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.767 billion yuan after deducting approximately 400 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, consistent with prior guidance [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.297 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and cost improvements from declining coal prices [1] Development Trends - The company expects continued growth in FY26, with total sales of 21.5 million tons in FY25, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by significant increases in sales of various paper types [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of high-end kraft paper, rather than merely expanding production capacity [2] - In FY26, the company has already launched production of 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with further expansions planned [2] Price and Cost Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in paper prices, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 yuan and 151 yuan for the first and second halves of FY25, respectively [3] - The company expects a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but overall profit margins for corrugated paper are expected to recover slightly [3] Capital Expenditure and Profit Forecast - Capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [3] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion yuan, which is higher than previous guidance [3] - The company has raised net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15%, respectively, to 2.75 billion yuan and 2.88 billion yuan, with a target price increase of 17% to 7 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3]