国信期货指出，近期焦化行业利润好转，提振焦企开工积极性，高频数据显示焦企开工率周环比出现回 升，焦炭供应弹性较大，产量回升。需求方面，上周钢厂高炉开工率周环比继续下降，真实需求边际走 弱。产业链供需矛盾出现累积，焦企库存出现累积，盘面反弹后压力仍存，小幅回调，建议短线操作。 大越期货表示，钢厂当前接货积极性不高，且对焦炭有控制到货情况，继续打压原料价格意愿较强。叠 加原料端煤价持续下跌，对焦价支撑减弱，焦企挺价心态渐弱，悲观情绪渐起。短期看焦炭供应仍延续 宽松局面，预计短期焦炭偏弱运行。焦炭2601：1600-1650区间操作。 12月4日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1615.0元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦炭主力最高触及1667.5元，下方探低1615.0元，涨幅达1.79%附近。 目前来看，焦炭行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦炭后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中辉期货分析称，四轮提涨落地后焦企利润明显改善，多数维持正常生产，库存有所累积，钢厂发起首 轮提降，幅度为50-55元/吨。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，但整体维持一定韧性，多数钢厂存 ...

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is mostly showing a downward trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 2.12% [1] - Coking coal supply and demand have both increased this week, leading to a rise in inventory levels after two weeks of decline, with production growth outpacing demand growth [1] - Steel demand is currently weak due to the off-season, causing pressure on coking coal prices as steel mills face losses [1] Group 2 - The auction prices for coking coal are primarily declining, resulting in some coking enterprises operating at minimal profit margins, while overall production continues to rise [2] - High furnace utilization rates remain stable, but steel mills are adopting a cautious approach to procurement due to shrinking profits from falling steel prices [2] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in coking coal prices in the short term, influenced by changes in coking profits and costs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the coking coal price has experienced a significant increase due to cost support and downstream steel mill restocking demand, with a cumulative price increase of 220 yuan/ton as of November 19 [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a "V" shaped trend in 2025, with a notable decline in the first half of the year, where prices dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 28.48% [2] - The rebound in coking coal prices began in late July, with a strong upward trend observed, although there were two brief corrections in September due to weak steel mill sales and profit pressures [3] Group 2 - As of November 21, the price of coking coal in Shanghai reached 1630 yuan/ton, marking a 38.14% increase from the July low [5] - The driving force behind the price increase in the second half of 2025 is attributed to rising coking coal costs and a tightening supply-demand balance, with coking coal prices in Shanxi reaching 1655 yuan/ton, a 53.95% increase since July [6][7] - The increase in coking coal prices has directly raised production costs for downstream steel mills, leading to a squeeze on their profit margins, with an increase in iron water costs by 90 yuan/ton due to the rise in coking coal prices [8] Group 3 - The continuous price increases have led to a narrowing profit margin for steel mills, which are now less willing to offer discounts, despite high iron water production supporting rigid demand for coking coal [9] - The expectation is that the upward momentum in coking coal prices may face resistance due to weakening steel prices and seasonal demand reduction, potentially leading to a decline in coking coal prices by the end of November or early December [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 1770.0 yuan, with a current price of 1773.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.31% [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term coking coal market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to high raw material prices and reduced production from coking enterprises, leading to low inventory levels [2] - Nanhua Futures predicts a potential strong performance in coking coal prices in the short term, driven by downstream steel mills increasing their inventory and a tightening supply due to reduced mining activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October, coking coal supply tightened, leading to strong prices, while downstream steel mills increased inventory demand, resulting in robust coking coal prices. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of further price increases for coking coal in November is diminished, with potential downward pressure on prices after mid-November [1][6]. Group 1: Coking Coal and Coking Prices - In October, domestic coking coal prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY/ton. The price of Shanxi's first-grade dry coke was set at 1575-1645 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.33% increase compared to the end of September [1][3]. - The tightening supply of coking coal, driven by production restrictions and increased costs, has provided a strong support for coking coal prices. As of October 27, the price of Shanxi's S<1 main coking coal reached 1550 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the low end of September [3][4]. - Coking plants are facing losses, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts, which have slightly tightened supply. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [3][4]. Group 2: Downstream Steel Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan remained high at 90.24% as of October 23, indicating strong demand for coking coal. Steel mills actively purchased coking coal due to inventory needs before and after the National Day holiday [4][6]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased significantly, with the average available days of inventory dropping to 7.18 days as of October 23, down 0.4 days from early October. This indicates a strong demand for coking coal despite rising costs [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Although coking coal prices are supported by rising costs, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, making it difficult for coking coal prices to continue rising in November. The seasonal demand for coal is expected to increase, but without significant production increases, supply tightening is anticipated [6]. - The overall expectation for November is that coking coal prices will initially remain strong but may weaken later in the month, depending on the timing of maintenance in steel mills and a noticeable decline in iron production [6].

Core Viewpoint - In October, domestic coke prices showed a strong upward trend due to tight coking coal supply and increased demand from downstream steel mills for inventory replenishment. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of continued price increases for coke in November is low, with potential downward pressure expected after mid-November [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - In October, domestic coke prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY per ton, reaching 1575-1645 CNY per ton for Shanxi's first-grade dry coke by October 27, marking a 7.33% increase from the end of September [3][4]. - The primary reason for the increase in coke prices is the rise in raw material coking coal prices and strong downstream demand [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply has tightened, leading to higher prices and increased costs, which support coke prices. During the National Day holiday, some coal mines suspended operations, and post-holiday, production was limited due to environmental checks, resulting in a strong cost support for coke prices [4][8]. - Many coking plants are currently operating below the breakeven point, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [4][7]. Group 3: Downstream Steel Mill Activity - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan reached 90.24% as of October 23, the highest level of the year, indicating strong demand for coke. However, due to rising coking coal prices, steel mills are experiencing reduced profits, which may affect their purchasing behavior [7][8]. - Steel mills have low coke inventory levels, with the average available days of coke inventory at 7.18 days, slightly down from early October. This low inventory level has led to active purchasing behavior from steel mills [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The cost support from coking coal is expected to continue, but the overall demand from steel mills may weaken as seasonal demand for steel decreases. The turning point for coke prices will depend on the extent of maintenance and production cuts in steel mills, particularly after mid-November [8].

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, major steel mills implemented a price increase for coke, with the first round of price adjustments occurring on October 1, resulting in an increase of 55 CNY/ton for solid dry coke and 50 CNY/ton for solid wet coke [1] - As of October 11, the price of first-grade coke is reported at 980 CNY/ton, while second-grade coke is at 1200 CNY/ton, and premium metallurgical coke is priced at 1900 CNY/ton in Henan Province [2] - The futures market saw the main contract for coke closing at 1646.5 CNY/ton, with a daily trading volume of 8796 lots, reflecting a decrease of 0.90% [2] Group 2 - A survey of 230 independent coke enterprises indicated a capacity utilization rate of 74.95%, a slight decrease of 0.05%, with an average daily coke production of 52.86 thousand tons, down by 0.03 thousand tons [3] - Coke inventory increased by 3.53 thousand tons to 42.54 thousand tons, while the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 69.15 thousand tons to 819.32 thousand tons, with available days of coking coal at 11.7 days, down by 0.98 days [3] - On October 9, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an increase of 2150 lots in coke futures warehouse receipts compared to the previous trading day [4] Group 3 - The analysis from Guohai Liangshi Futures Research indicates that despite the price increase for coke, the production levels of independent coke enterprises and steel companies remained relatively stable during the holiday, leading to a limited decrease in overall coke production [4] - The profit margins for coke enterprises have improved due to the price increase, but the pressure for further price hikes remains significant due to the thin profit margins of steel companies [4] - It is expected that the iron output in October will maintain a high level of around 2.4 million tons, providing support for coke supply, although coke prices are under pressure from reduced cost support and accumulated steel inventory [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors include stable September LPR in China, potential deposit - rate cuts in Q4, tariff measures by the US, and anti - dumping taxes by South Korea [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, iron - water production is high with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is higher than the same period. Independent coking plants are experiencing losses [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - After the holiday, the coke price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to trade the main contract with a view of oscillatory movement, and mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: China's September LPR remains unchanged; more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4; the US will impose tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping taxes on steel products [7]. - **Overseas**: The US plans tariff hikes, and South Korea imposes anti - dumping taxes on steel from China and Japan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons, with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is relatively high. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduce positions to avoid risks, market sentiment drops, and the downstream restocking is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the coke futures contract open interest is 56,700 lots, down 81 lots; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 143.0, down 1.50 points; the registered warehouse receipts are 1,690 lots, up 140 lots; the rebar - coke ratio of the futures main contract is 1.84, up 0.02 points [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 25, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of September 26, the coke basis is - 330.0 yuan, down 51.0 points [25]. - **Production**: In August 2025, China's raw coal output is 39,049.7 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to August is 316,517.4 million tons, up 2.8% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's coking coal output is 4,089.38 million tons, up 25 million tons month - on - month [28]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants is 75.31%, down 0.04%; the daily coke output is 53.12, down 0.02; the coke inventory is 39.54, down 2.67; the total coking coal inventory is 856.23, up 53.06; the available coking coal days are 12.1 days, up 0.76 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons week - on - week and 17.50 million tons year - on - year. As of September 26, the total coke inventory is 890.92 million tons, up 7.07 million tons week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory is 496.85, down 18.47; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 661.31, up 16.64; the available coke days are 11.66 days, up 0.24 days [40]. - **Fundamentals**: From January to August, the cumulative coke exports are 495 million tons, down 20.0% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's steel exports are 951.0 million tons, down 32.6 million tons month - on - month and 3.3% month - on - month; the cumulative steel exports from January to August are 7,749.0 million tons. In August 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities drop 0.60% month - on - month. As of the week of September 21, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities is 161.13 million square meters, up 16.47% week - on - week and 23.41% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities is 51.15 million square meters, up 9.49% week - on - week and 65.15% year - on - year; in second - tier cities, it is 69.51 million square meters, up 11.25% week - on - week and 11.32% year - on - year [46][49][54].

Group 1 - In August, the overall market price of coke increased, with an average price of 1446 yuan/ton, representing a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last month [1] - As of September 1, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1594.5 yuan/ton, with a daily trading volume of 30,287 lots, reflecting a decline of 3.54% [2] - Colombia announced a ban on coal exports to Israel, which is its largest coal supplier, accounting for 60% of Israel's coal imports [3] Group 2 - Some coke enterprises are facing production disruptions due to environmental restrictions, maintaining low inventory levels, while steel mills are beginning to accumulate inventory, leading to weaker demand for coke [4] - Despite acceptable profit margins for steel mills, there is a low willingness to accept price increases for coke due to the anticipated reduction in production [4]