05 成本和利润 等待反弹抛空 生猪周报 2026/01/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周猪价先落后涨，周内大猪供应偏紧，上游惜售情绪较浓，但元旦后需求降量，导致猪价涨幅较之前收窄，周内交易均重同比偏大、 环比增加，肥标差从高位回落，同比看仍偏大；具体看，河南均价周跌0.12元至13.08元/公斤，周内最低12.7元/公斤，四川均价周持平于12.9 元/公斤，周内最低12.7元/公斤，广东均价周落0.44元至12.72元/公斤；下周供应呈小幅增加态势，对行情有利空影响，但养殖端抗价情绪仍 在，或限制价格跌幅，需求端因宰量下降和二育减缓支撑力度有所不足，预计猪价以稳中小跌走势为主。 ◆ 供应端：去年以来母猪去化幅度有限，尽管10月份以来产能去化有所加速，但时滞效应导致至少今年上半年的理论供应量还是偏大，下半年基 本面会有所改善，另外要 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 08 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，7 日生猪主力 2603 合约小幅高开后 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 生猪行情： 期货方面，5 日生猪主力 2603 合约低开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最 高 11775 元/吨，最低 11610 元/吨，收盘报 1166 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力减少 现货小幅震荡 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | | 2025/12/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.76 | 11.78 | -0.02 | 山西 | （-100） | 11.47 | 11.48 | -0.01 | | 湖北（0） | 11.53 | 11.53 | 0.00 | 辽宁 | （-300） | 11.31 | 11.32 | -0.01 | | 安徽（200） | 11.97 | 12.01 | -0.04 | | 吉林（-300） | 11.29 | 11.30 | -0.01 | | 湖南 ...

生猪：极其悲观的预期，极好的入场点 20251224 摘要 当前生猪价格约为 11.5 元/公斤，受 10 个月前能繁母猪数量影响，出 栏量较高。预计到 2026 年 7 月，生猪出栏量将呈现先升后降再回升的 趋势，但市场对明年价格预期过于悲观。 市场低估了去库存的影响，数据显示每月生猪交易均重下降 1 公斤，导 致当月出栏量增加 3%。同时，新生仔猪数量自 2025 年 9-10 月开始加 速下降，预示 2026 年 3-4 月价格将迎来拐点，5 月或达 14 元/公斤。 行业自 2021 年以来处于下行周期尾声，上市公司报表显示生物资产和 固定资产均在减少。2025 年三季度，生产性生物资产和固定资产同比 均下滑 3%以上，长期产能冗余正在清理，有助于驱动可持续的价格上 行。 股票和期货市场估值反映了市场对猪价 12-13 元/公斤的一致预期。若 冬至或春节后实际价格高于预期，将证伪悲观预期并推动估值上行。推 荐优质上市主体作为投资标的。 历史数据显示，亏损通常在短期内迅速引发产能退出，单月产能退出幅 度约为 2%。当前调研显示，若亏损持续，预计 10 月和 11 月母猪区划 幅度将超过 5%，加速产能去 ...

长江期货饲料产业周报 2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：供需博弈，期价震荡加剧 ◆ 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 ◆ 期现端：截至12月19日，全国现货价格11.57元/公斤，较上周涨0.23元/公斤；河南猪价11.7元/公斤，较上周涨0.3元/公斤；生猪2503收至11325元/吨，较上周稳定；03合约基差 375元/吨，较上周涨300元/吨。周度生猪价格重心上移，前半周冬至备货和降温提振消费，价格震荡上涨，随后养殖端增量出栏，冬至备货高峰后屠宰量回落，价格滞涨；期货主 力03跟随现货先扬后抑，窄幅波动，基差走强，远月先跌后涨，震荡运行；周末现货止跌企稳。 ◆ 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情相对可控情况下， 明 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 19, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1][2] Investment Rating - No relevant information Core View - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a strong and volatile trend. The futures market faces dual supply pressures from the concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release, which puts pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, due to the large price decline compared to the same period last year and the increasing and more severe northern epidemic recently, the bottom - shock frequency has increased [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 11,470 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% from the previous day. The total index position decreased by 4,480 lots to 357,131 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth until next year's first half. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall completion progress of many regional groups is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in the difficulty of acquisition [8] - **Demand Side**: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and enema is increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are increasing, which significantly supports the slaughter volume. On December 18th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 201,900 heads, an increase of 6,900 heads from the previous day, 17,000 heads week - on - week, and 36,000 heads month - on - month [8] - **Policy Side**: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pig by - products from the EU. However, the impact is very limited because the proportion compared to domestic consumption is extremely low [8] 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. In December, the planned slaughter is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - **Profit per Head**: As of December 11th, the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - **Cost**: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The cost of purchasing piglets for fattening was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost after fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - **Slaughter Weight and Proportion**: As of the week of December 11th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week. The proportion of pigs under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]

傲农生物（603363）(603363.SH)发布11月养殖业务主要经营数据，2025年11月，公司生猪销售量15.77 万头，同比增加72.21%，较2025年10月减少17.08%。11月末，公司生猪存栏69.97万头，同比增加 33.94%，较2025年10月末增加7.58%，较2024年12月末增加36.41%。 ...

liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 05 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，4日生猪主力2603合约小幅高开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高11250 元/吨，最低 11180 元/吨，收盘报 11190 元/吨，较昨日跌 0.44%，指数总持仓增 加 3206 手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For the pig industry, policy disturbances may affect long - term supply, with a long - term strategic strength, but short - to medium - term trends are still based on fundamentals. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is stronger due to expectations [3] - For the corn and starch industry, the national prices continue to rise slightly. Port and Northeast production areas are rising, while high arrivals in Shandong suppress the upward trend. The futures market is consolidating after continuous rallies, with some long - position liquidation, but the trend is strong in the medium - term [14] - For the egg industry, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, with high price pressure. In the short - term, some farmers are culling or molting hens due to the rapid post - festival price decline. Overall, the capacity is at a high level but approaching an inflection point, with a generally weak direction [30] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Section - **Spot Prices**: The national average pig spot price is 11.2 yuan, down 0.12 yuan (-1.06%). Prices in various regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also decreased [4] - **Futures Prices**: Pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the closing price of Pig 01 is 11,490 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.31%), while Pig 03 is 11,235 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.18%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: Spreads and basis between different pig futures contracts and regions show significant changes. For example, LH01 - 03 spread is 200 yuan, down 90 yuan (-31.03%) [10] Corn and Starch Section - **Futures Prices**: Corn and corn starch futures prices generally rose. For example, the closing price of Corn 01 is 2,259 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.71%), and Corn Starch 01 is 2,562 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.63%) [15][16] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in ports like Jinzhou and Shekou show different trends, and the basis also changes. For example, Jinzhou Port's corn price is 2,300 yuan, up 5 yuan, and the basis to the main - contract is 52 yuan, up 3 yuan [20] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: Corn and starch month - to - month spreads show various changes. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - spread is - 37 yuan, unchanged, and the Starch 1 - 5 month - spread is - 61 yuan, up 13 yuan [23] - **US Corn Import**: CBOT corn prices rose, and the import profit from the US Gulf and West Coast is 290.98 yuan and 391.93 yuan respectively [28] Egg Section - **Futures Prices**: Egg futures prices declined. For example, the closing price of Egg 01 is 3,138 yuan, down 64 yuan (-2%) [30] - **Spot Prices**: Main - producing and main - selling areas' egg prices show different trends. The main - producing area egg price is 3.07 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (-0.65%) [31] - **Spreads and Basis**: Egg spreads and basis also changed. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 450 yuan, down 58 yuan (14.8%) [41]