中国银河证券指出，持续重点强调关注生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会，基于能繁母猪作用值及养殖 效率的考虑，2025年猪价同比或呈下行走势，年内相对平稳运行，叠加成本下行带来的利润超预期，重 点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企。黄鸡价格与猪价有一定相关性，且考虑自身供给端 低位，后续价格存上行可能。 截至2025年8月26日 10:02，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨0.72%，成分股星湖科技(600866)上涨 2.04%，牧原股份(002714)上涨2.02%，天康生物(002100)上涨1.51%，圣农发展(002299)上涨1.51%，晓 鸣股份(300967)上涨1.29%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.75%，最新价报0.67元。 消息面上，猪价在持续探底后终于显现企稳迹象，北方多地主流报价稳定，河南地区龙头企业连续小幅 走强，市场情绪悄然转变。国家将于近期开展中央冻猪肉储备收储。华储网已经发布通知，计划于8月 25日进行1万吨冻猪肉收储竞价交易。 关联产品：畜牧ETF(159867) 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份( ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/8/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 13.71 | 13.77 | -0.06 | 山西（-100） | 13.39 | 13.34 | 0.05 | | 湖北（0） | 13.69 | 13.69 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 13.34 | 13.31 | 0.03 | | 安徽（200） | 13.81 | 13.84 | -0.03 | 吉林（-300） | 13.24 | 13.20 | 0.04 | | 湖南（100） | 13.75 | 13.80 | -0.05 | 黑龙江 | ...

基本面看暂无大矛盾，生猪合约震荡调整。 生猪主力合约基差(元/吨) -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 01-02 01-29 02-25 03-22 04-18 05-17 06-12 07-08 08-03 08-29 09-25 10-28 11-23 12-19 2022 2023 2024 2025 --7070 类别 指标名称 2025-08-22 2025-08-15 基准地出栏价(元/公斤) 河南 13.77 13.81 期货合约收盘价(元/吨) 01合约 14145 14225 03合约 13300 13320 05合约 13740 13890 07合约 14175 14290 09合约 13760 13825 11合约 13840 13945 主力合约基差(元/吨) 基准地基差 -70 -135 数据来源：Wind、涌益咨询、融达期货 | | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-08-25 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, with the supply pressure improving compared to before, but still existing due to the high inventory level. The scale enterprises'出栏量 has continued to tighten, while the ordinary farmers'出栏 progress has slowed down. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm is average, and the follow - up increase in entry enthusiasm is expected to be limited. The futures market is affected by the spot pressure, with the far - month contract having support but the near - month contract facing obvious pressure[2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Spot Information - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, and the supply was slightly tightened. The scale enterprises'出栏量 continued to tighten, but the overall supply pressure still existed due to the poor overall出栏 completion. The ordinary farmers'出栏 progress slowed down, and there was some pressure on the market to hold back pigs. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm was average, and the size - pig price difference increased slightly[2] Futures Information - The live pig futures market showed an oscillating trend today. The far - month contract was affected by the previous large increase and the current supply pressure, with some downward pressure, but still having support. The near - month contract faced obvious pressure[5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips in the far - month contract - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage - Options: Sell far - month put options[6]

Core Insights - The company has sold 1.7517 million pigs from January to July 2025, achieving approximately 50% of its target output, and is confident in meeting its established goals for the year [1] - The company plans to implement several measures to ensure steady growth in pig output, including advancing a 300,000-head breeding project, optimizing the sow population structure, and establishing a comprehensive biosecurity system [1] - The company is closely monitoring industry policies and market supply-demand changes, aiming to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through refined management practices and hedging tools to mitigate market price fluctuations [1] Measures for Production Growth - The company is actively promoting a breeding project in the 37th regiment of the Second Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, expected to be operational in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company aims to optimize the sow population by scientifically selecting and eliminating low-yield sows to improve reproductive performance and production efficiency [1] - A comprehensive biosecurity system will be constructed, covering site selection, disinfection protocols, vaccination, and health monitoring to ensure the health of the pig population [1] Market Strategy - The company is focused on closely monitoring industry policy dynamics and market supply-demand changes [1] - It plans to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through meticulous breeding management and feed cost control [1] - The company will utilize hedging tools to address market price volatility, thereby strengthening its competitiveness and risk resistance for long-term stable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has reached a ten-year high, leading to impressive performance from convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 15% this year, and the top performer reaching nearly 25% [2][6]. Market Performance - As of August 7, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 469.56 points, marking a 12.74% increase year-to-date [4]. - The top-performing convertible bond funds include: - Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A with a performance of 24.78% this year [6]. - Other notable funds such as Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, Oriental Convertible Bond A, and others have growth rates around 20% [6][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the strong performance of convertible bonds to a combination of a favorable interest rate environment and strong market support, which provides a high margin of safety [8]. - The market is expected to maintain a solid bottom, enhancing the holding experience for convertible bonds [8]. Future Outlook - Managers suggest that convertible bond valuations are unlikely to drop to the lows seen in Q3 2024, with expectations of trading within a higher valuation range over the next 3-4 years [10]. - Opportunities are identified in low-priced convertible bonds, with a focus on sectors like technology and new consumption as market conditions evolve [10][11]. - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience three phases: price recovery of low-priced bonds, balanced valuation expansion, and eventual high volatility and high returns [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year [1] - The feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, nearing the annual target for 2025 [1] - The company is on track to meet its 2030 sales target of 51.5 million tons, with significant growth in various feed segments, including a 43% increase in pig feed sales [1] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with feed sales outside China growing over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits of 4.963 billion yuan, 5.692 billion yuan, and 6.714 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 14.7%, and 18.0% [2] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 19 times [2] - Financial indicators show a revenue forecast of 129.547 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 13% year-on-year [4] Business Segments - The seedling business generated 770 million yuan in revenue, while the animal health business achieved 460 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on building capabilities in pig farming and innovating a light-asset model, which is expected to yield considerable profits [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the current reporting period, a significant increase of 924.6% to 973.39% compared to the same period last year, which reported a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 10.2 billion and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,129.97% to 1,190.26% from last year's 829 million yuan [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 10.6 billion to 11.1 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, marking an increase of 882.95% to 929.31% from the previous year's 1.078 billion yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 1.90 yuan and 2.00 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The significant improvement in the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold compared to the same period last year, leading to higher revenue [1] - Additionally, the cost of pig farming has decreased compared to the previous year, further contributing to the enhanced profitability [1]