生育意愿 在我国，提到文化差异，人们往往首先想到的是南北差异："南甜北咸"的饮食偏好、"南船北马"的交通方式、"南柔北刚"的性情印象，甚至方言、戏曲、 建筑风格等也常被置于南北对比的框架中加以理解。更有甚者Talhem (2014)等学者提出一个引人关注但不乏争议的假说：认为"南稻北麦"的农业传统，在 深层次上塑造了中国人的文化心理与行为模式。 而提到社会经济发展水平，人们则更多聚焦于东西差异。东部沿海地区凭借区位优势和政策支持，在经济开放、产业现代化、城市化水平和国际融合等方 面显著领先；而西部内陆地区则受制于地理条件、历史基础等因素，发展相对滞后，这种区域不平衡成为当代中国发展格局中的一个核心特征。 那么这种地理差异是否同样反映在人口行为紧密相关指标上？ 毕竟任何人口学行为都是文化和社会经济因素的共同作用的结果。 我们最近使用小区域估计方法结合调查数据和普查数据，估计了中国县级的理想子女数和意愿子女数，结果同样显示出南北分化（理想子女数）与东西差 异（意愿子女数）并存的鲜明态势。 要理解生育意愿不同指标的空间分布，首先需要厘清"理想子女数"和"意愿子女数"在概念上的差异。二者虽然密切相关，但所反映的内涵并 ...

Core Insights - The city of Tianmen is experiencing a "counter-trend rebound" in birth rates, with approximately 7,217 newborns expected in 2024, a 17% increase from 2023, while the national birth population is projected to rise by about 5.8% to 9.54 million [2][4][10] - This increase is attributed to Tianmen's substantial fertility support policies, with over 300 million yuan planned for investment from 2024 to 2026 to encourage childbirth [2][4][11] - However, experts caution that the total fertility rate (TFR) is the key indicator for assessing fertility levels, and the current increase in birth numbers does not necessarily indicate a fundamental improvement in fertility intentions [3][5][10] Policy Measures - Tianmen has implemented several policies to encourage childbirth, including increased maternity leave, financial rewards for families with two or three children, and housing purchase vouchers [4][5] - Families can receive up to 287,188 yuan for having a second child and up to 355,988 yuan for a third child, excluding national-level childcare subsidies [4][10] Demographic Analysis - The increase in birth rates may be influenced by cultural factors, such as the "Year of the Dragon," and a release of pent-up demand for childbirth following the easing of pandemic restrictions [5][10] - The local population's growth is also affected by migration, as families with Tianmen residency may return to register births and claim subsidies, thus inflating local birth statistics [5][10] Statistical Challenges - There are significant challenges in accurately measuring the total fertility rate in Tianmen due to discrepancies in population data sources and the high proportion of migrant workers [6][7] - Current statistics primarily reflect the number of births registered in Tianmen, which may not accurately represent the local population's fertility behavior [6][7] Long-term Considerations - Experts suggest that the observed increase in birth numbers may be a short-term effect rather than a sustainable trend, emphasizing the need for consistent and authoritative data monitoring [3][5][8] - The effectiveness of Tianmen's policies in improving fertility rates on a broader scale remains uncertain, and a more substantial national investment in fertility support is deemed necessary to address the low birth rate issue effectively [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant demographic crisis in China, predicting a drastic population decline from 1.4 billion to 580 million in the next 50 years, emphasizing the urgency of addressing this issue [2][18]. Group 1: Population Decline - The prediction by economist Lang Xianping indicates a potential population drop to 580 million in 50 years if current birth rates continue [18]. - The birth rate has been declining sharply, with newborns falling from 1,846,000 in 2016 to 902,000 in 2023, marking a significant decrease [10][14]. - In 2024, the projected number of newborns is 954,000, while deaths are expected to reach 1,093,000, resulting in a net population decrease of 139,000 [16]. Group 2: Aging Population - The elderly population (60 years and above) reached 290 million in 2023, accounting for 21.1% of the total population, indicating a rapidly aging society [20]. - By 2031, it is projected that one in five individuals will be 65 years or older, leading to a significant increase in the old-age dependency ratio [22]. - The old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 22.5% in 2023 to 48.8% by 2050, indicating a growing burden on the working-age population [24]. Group 3: Reasons for Low Birth Rates - Young couples cite the high cost of raising children as a primary reason for not having more kids, with expenses for a single child reaching tens of thousands of yuan [29][31]. - The financial burden of housing loans and living expenses leaves little room for additional children, making it increasingly difficult for young families to consider expanding [31]. - The impact of childbirth on women's careers also deters many from having children, as societal pressures and workplace biases create additional challenges [33].

Core Viewpoint - The newly introduced childcare subsidy policy aims to provide financial support for families with children under three years old, with a current annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child, which many perceive as insufficient given the high costs of raising children in China [4][5][24]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - Starting from January 1, 2025, the government will issue subsidies for children under three years old, with a basic standard of 3600 yuan per child per year [4][5]. - Some regions, like Hohhot, offer additional one-time subsidies, making the total support for a first child up to 20800 yuan [8]. - The expectation is that the subsidy amount may increase in the future, potentially reaching 10000 yuan or more per year [8]. Group 2: Cost of Raising Children - The average cost of raising a child in China from 0 to 17 years is approximately 538,312 yuan, with urban areas like Shanghai and Beijing having even higher costs of 101,000 yuan and 93,600 yuan respectively [20][21]. - The breakdown of costs shows that raising a child involves significant expenses at various stages, with the largest portion incurred during the ages of 6-14 years [23]. - The high cost of child-rearing in China is highlighted by the fact that it is 6.3 times the per capita GDP, which is among the highest globally [21]. Group 3: Societal Attitudes Towards Childbirth - There is a growing sentiment among the public that the current subsidy is inadequate, with many individuals expressing that they would not consider having children for such a small financial incentive [5][6][9]. - The article notes that societal attitudes towards childbirth are influenced by various factors, including economic conditions and personal aspirations, leading to a decline in birth rates [30][31][35]. - The disparity in birth rates between wealthier and poorer populations is evident, with lower-income families often having a higher birth rate compared to their wealthier counterparts [35][49]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Recommendations - The government’s intention behind the subsidy is to provide a safety net for families who wish to have children, rather than to encourage high-income families to have more children [24][27]. - Suggestions for improving the situation include creating a more supportive environment for families, such as enhancing childcare services, providing parental leave, and ensuring access to quality education [67][68]. - The article argues against punitive measures like taxing single individuals, emphasizing the need for positive incentives rather than moral coercion [62][68].

Group 1 - The long-awaited childcare subsidy policy has finally been announced, effective from January 1, 2025, for children under three years old [2][3] - The current national basic standard for the subsidy is 3,600 yuan per child per year, which will be provided until the child turns three [3][8] - Many people express dissatisfaction with the amount, stating it is insufficient to cover basic childcare costs, with some suggesting that even a larger sum would not incentivize them to have children [3][4][5] Group 2 - Some regions are offering additional local subsidies, such as Hohhot, which provides a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, totaling 20,800 yuan when combined with the national subsidy [7] - There is speculation that the subsidy amount may increase in the future, potentially reaching 10,000 yuan or more in subsequent years [8] - The average cost of raising a child in China from 0 to 17 years is approximately 538,312 yuan, with urban families in cities like Shanghai and Beijing facing even higher costs of 101,000 yuan and 93,600 yuan respectively [21][22] Group 3 - The subsidy aims to provide basic support for families who wish to have children, particularly benefiting low-income households where the average cost of raising a child is about 126,000 yuan [26][27] - The article highlights that the rising costs of child-rearing are a significant deterrent for many potential parents, with some individuals expressing a desire for much higher subsidies to consider having children [9][19][20] - The discussion reflects a broader trend where individuals in developed regions are less inclined to have children due to financial pressures and lifestyle choices [56][57]

Core Insights - China's total population has been declining for three consecutive years since peaking in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027, 1.3 billion by 2039, and 1.2 billion by 2047 [2][11] - The number of newborns is expected to drop below 9 million by 2025, fall below 8 million by 2028, and potentially dip below 7 million by 2035, with a slower decline in the subsequent decade [10][11] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, expected to reach an ultra-aging society by 2032, and will match Japan's current aging level by 2048 [14][16] Population Trends - The fertility rate among women aged 15-29 is significantly higher than in Japan and the UK, but the fertility rate for women aged 30-49 is notably low, indicating a need for policies encouraging childbirth among older women [24][25] - The decline in marriage rates is attributed to gender imbalance, with a male-to-female ratio of approximately 115:100 for those born between 2006-2010, which may lead to severe gender disparities in the upcoming decade [33][36] - Educational disparities also contribute to declining marriage rates, as there are more men with lower education levels compared to women with higher education, complicating the marriage prospects for educated women [3][38] Urbanization and Migration - Urbanization rates have slowed, with the average annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to about 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [42][44] - The average age of migrant workers has risen to 43.1 years, with over 30% being over 50, indicating a trend of aging among the workforce and a decrease in population mobility [46][48] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases [62][64] Economic Implications - The industrial workforce has been declining since 2012, with projections indicating a drop from 2.32 billion in 2012 to 2.13 billion by 2024, highlighting a shift towards the service sector [72][79] - The service sector's share of GDP is expected to rise, with the third sector projected to account for 57% of GDP by 2024, compared to 36% for the secondary sector [69][79] - The aging population and rising dependency ratio will increase demand for services, necessitating a focus on developing the service industry to stabilize employment [80][100]

Group 1: Population Changes and Trends - The total population of China has been decreasing since its peak in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and below 1.3 billion by 2039 [2][7] - The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 9.54 million, lower than previous predictions, with further declines anticipated in subsequent years, potentially dropping below 9 million in 2025 and 8 million in 2028 [5][6] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, with expectations to reach super-aged status by 2032, and projections suggest it will match Japan's aging level by 2048 [8][11] Group 2: Fertility Rates and Marriage Trends - Fertility rates among women aged 15-29 are higher than those in Japan and the UK, but rates for women aged 30-49 are significantly lower, indicating a need for policies that encourage childbirth among older women [2][16] - The declining marriage rate is attributed to gender imbalance and educational disparities, with a notable surplus of males in younger age groups and a higher number of educated women than men in higher education [25][30] - The average marriage age in China is lower than in several developed countries, yet the overall fertility rate remains low, suggesting that early marriage does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates [16][17] Group 3: Urbanization and Migration Trends - Urbanization rates are slowing, with the annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to approximately 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [32][36] - The proportion of migrant workers moving across provinces is decreasing, with an increasing average age of migrant workers, indicating a trend towards local employment rather than migration [39][40] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases, reflecting ongoing urbanization trends [46][51] Group 4: Economic Implications of Population Changes - The share of the secondary industry in GDP is declining, while the tertiary sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating that the tertiary sector will account for 63% of GDP by 2024 [57][59] - Employment in the secondary industry has been decreasing since 2012, with a notable drop in industrial employment numbers expected to continue [59][64] - The aging population and rising dependency ratios will increase demand for services, suggesting a need for policies that support the growth of the service sector [65][70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a subtle shift in South Korean societal attitudes towards marriage and childbirth, with an increase in marriage intentions despite a continued decline in birth rates [1] Group 2 - The report titled "2024 Family and Fertility" surveyed 14,372 adults aged 19 to 49, including both married and unmarried individuals [1] - The average number of children women expect to have is 0.85, which is a decrease of 0.18 from three years ago, indicating a clear downward trend in fertility [1] - Among respondents with partners, only 18% expressed plans to have children, with an average desired number of 1.25 children [1] - In contrast, 63.2% of respondents without partners indicated a willingness to have children in the future, with an average desired number of 1.54 children, slightly higher than those with partners [1] - The survey revealed that 62.2% of respondents expressed an intention to marry, an increase of 11.4 percentage points compared to 2021, while those undecided about marriage decreased from 23.9% to 19.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province has emerged as a leader in birth rates in China, with a significant increase in newborns, indicating a strong willingness to have children despite national trends of declining birth rates [2][5][10]. Group 1: Birth Rate Statistics - In 2023, Guangdong Province recorded a birth increase of 1.03 million, ranking first in the country, with one in every nine newborns in China born in Guangdong [2][4]. - Guangdong has maintained a birth population exceeding one million for over 40 years, showcasing its consistent reproductive capacity [4]. - The birth rate in Guangdong for 2022 was 8.3‰, ranking eighth among 31 provincial-level regions, and slightly decreased to 8.12‰ in 2023, still surpassing several other provinces [9][10]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Provinces - Guangdong's birth population is significantly higher than that of other populous provinces, with 335,000 more than Henan and 420,000 more than Shandong [5]. - The province has outperformed Shandong, which was historically known for high birth rates, since 2018, maintaining its status as the top birth province for six consecutive years [5][6]. Group 3: Economic and Demographic Factors - Guangdong's large population of 127 million residents contributes to its high birth numbers, but the birth rate is a more accurate reflection of reproductive willingness [8][9]. - Despite a high GDP per capita of approximately 107,000 yuan in 2023, which typically correlates with lower birth rates, Guangdong's situation is atypical, indicating a unique demographic dynamic [14].

以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者卢伊 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味的新媒体。 一个时代。 记者丨卢伊 编辑丨段文 新媒体编辑｜闫如意 来源 | 凤凰WEEKLY （ID：phoenixweekly） 80后的中年危机，来得格外的迅猛。 青山资本在年度消费报告《35岁，中国式中年》中指出，尽管全球范围内的中年危机往往在四五十岁才逐渐显现。 但在中国，随着产业结构、劳动者教育水平的高速变化，35岁以上的劳动力正在被市场出清。 无数政策优惠、就业求职、婚育观念等，也将35岁作为一道门槛，过之即弃。 "好像35岁有一道无形的门，走进去了便'隐入尘烟'。" 在这份报告推出的2024年，35岁有了更为具体的指代——他们出生于1989年，是80后中的最后一批。 尽管他们距离通常意义上的"中年"仍有一定距离，但当35岁成为迈入中年的新标准，这意味着： 整个80后群体已集体步入中年，提前直面来自职场、家庭和社会的中年危机。 80后，这是一个拥有2.2亿人口的庞大群体，他们是中国第一代独生子女，也是教育改革的试验品、东西方思想碰撞的产物。 中国社会科学院研究员沈杰曾指出，这代人出生在改革开放开启的80年代， ...