证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 云图控股（002539.SZ） 磷酸铁景气度有望回升，硫铁矿制酸优势突出 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·农化制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 董丙旭 | 0755-81982570 | | dongbingxu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090002 | 事项： 近期磷酸铁厂家纷纷提价，截止 2025 年 12 月 19 日，据百川盈孚，磷酸铁市场均价为 10830 元/吨，同比 上涨 3.14%；2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内固态硫磺现货价为 3950 元/吨，同比去年上涨 157.32%，硫铁矿市 场均价为 1024 元/吨，同比去年上涨 55.86%，硫铁矿制酸工艺优势明显。 国信化工观点：1）在锂电行业需求高增背景下，磷酸铁景气 ...

Industry Overview - Phosphate rock is a key upstream raw material, with yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid as important intermediates, and downstream products primarily used in agriculture and industry [3][4] - The phosphate chemical industry chain includes phosphate rock and sulfur as upstream materials, with phosphoric acid produced through various processes [4] Resource End - China ranks second globally in phosphate rock reserves, with significant deposits located in Yunnan, Hubei, Sichuan, and Guizhou [6] - The total phosphate rock reserves in China are approximately 3.69 billion tons, with a low average grade of 16.85%, indicating over-exploitation and resource wastage [9][10] Production Capacity - Domestic phosphate rock production is the highest globally, but there has been a trend of decreasing output since 2018 [7] - Major phosphate rock producers include Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Sichuan, with a total production capacity of 1,450 million tons by Yuntianhua and 950 million tons by Guizhou Kaipin [11] Product Demand - Approximately 60% of phosphate rock is used for producing phosphate fertilizers, with a growing demand for high-efficiency and high-value utilization [13] - The main phosphate fertilizers include monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP), which are essential for crop growth [14][15] Phosphoric Acid Production - The phosphoric acid industry in China has a low concentration of production capacity, with a total capacity of 618 million tons, including 270 million tons of thermal phosphoric acid and 348 million tons of wet phosphoric acid [25] - The wet phosphoric acid production process is gaining traction due to its lower energy consumption and environmental impact compared to thermal methods [24][27] Environmental Considerations - The production of yellow phosphorus is characterized by high energy consumption and pollution, with limited new capacity being added [18] - The treatment and utilization of by-products such as phosphogypsum and fluorosilicic acid are becoming critical for the sustainable development of the phosphate chemical industry [32] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to focus on expanding the production capacity of wet phosphoric acid and functional phosphate salts, moving towards a more refined and specialized manufacturing approach [36] - The demand for feed-grade phosphate salts is anticipated to grow due to the increasing scale of aquaculture and livestock farming in China [37]

Group 1 - The demand for phosphate rock is strong, driving an annual increase in demand of over 4 million tons. Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the phosphate chemical industry chain, with companies having both resource layout and performance elasticity [1] - A "dark horse" in the robot joint motor market has a significant expectation gap in its market positioning. It is poised to secure the leading position in domestic EPS motors and is expected to receive orders from top domestic and international robot manufacturers, with a PE ratio of 14.7 times being attractive [1]

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, driven by improved market conditions for glyphosate [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [4][5] - The third quarter saw revenue of 9.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.9%, with a net profit of 0.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.1% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit showed steady growth, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q3, primarily due to the optimized supply-demand dynamics of glyphosate and the profit contribution from phosphate fertilizer exports [5] - Glyphosate market prices have risen, with current average prices at 26,546 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 14% and 17% compared to Q1 2025 [5] Industry Outlook - The phosphate industry remains robust, with the company enhancing its mining integration and exploration efforts, increasing phosphate resource reserves to 580 million tons [6] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its integrated layout in the phosphate chemical industry [6] New Materials Business - The company has successfully turned around its new energy products to profitability and is expanding its special chemicals and silicone businesses, which are crucial for high-quality development [7] - New projects in the organic silicon sector are expected to become new profit growth points, with significant investments planned for industrial silicon production [8] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.825 billion, 2.078 billion, and 2.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 13 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 33.15 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.318 billion CNY, up 0.31% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 9.161 billion CNY, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.96% and 23.94%, respectively. The net profit for Q3 was 0.592 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.15% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 28.396 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 1.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.602 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.1%. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.45 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 [4]. - For 2025E, total revenue is estimated at 30.826 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 8.6%. The net profit is projected at 1.867 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6%. The EPS is expected to rise to 1.69 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 16 [4]. - For 2026E, total revenue is forecasted at 33.137 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.5%. The net profit is expected to reach 2.433 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 30.3%. The EPS is projected at 2.21 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 12 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The company's main segments, including pesticides, fertilizers, specialty chemicals, and organic silicon products, reported revenues of 3.964 billion CNY, 3.244 billion CNY, 3.942 billion CNY, and 2.075 billion CNY, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2025. The year-on-year changes in revenue were -1.0%, +8.2%, -0.7%, and +11.7% [9]. - The sales volume for these segments showed an upward trend, indicating a gradual recovery in downstream demand [9]. Strategic Developments - The company announced plans to acquire Qiaogou Mining, which will increase its phosphate resource reserves from 395 million tons to 580 million tons. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's resource advantages in the phosphate industry [9]. - The company is also advancing several key projects in fine chemicals, which are anticipated to become new profit growth points. These include various production upgrades and expansions in organic silicon and phosphorus-related products [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by favorable phosphate fertilizer exports, despite a slight decline in quarter-on-quarter performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.89% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.36% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 34.61% [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) was 2.88%, up 0.54 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.58 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit margin was 15.57%, down 1.64 percentage points year-on-year and 4.81 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Expenses - Sales expenses for Q3 2025 were 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.08 billion yuan, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Management expenses were 0.77 billion yuan, down 0.11 billion yuan year-on-year and up 0.06 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Research and development expenses were 0.94 billion yuan, up 0.17 billion yuan year-on-year but down 0.07 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Financial income was 0.06 billion yuan, up 0.08 billion yuan year-on-year but down 0.02 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. Market Dynamics - The price of urea has experienced significant volatility due to supply-demand imbalances and international energy fluctuations, while prices for monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizers remain high due to various factors including sulfur price increases and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The fluctuation in raw material prices has created operational challenges for compound fertilizer companies, leading to increased costs and difficulties in inventory management [4]. - Leading companies in the industry are expected to gain market share as smaller firms struggle with risk management [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 123 billion yuan, 146 billion yuan, and 159 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 10 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan, and 14 billion yuan [5]. - The company maintains a competitive advantage through its brand strength, marketing channels, and ongoing investment in research and development [5].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has maintained the AA+ rating for Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd., reflecting its strong position in the phosphate chemical industry and resource advantages, despite facing challenges from price fluctuations and investment pressures [3][5][6]. Company Overview - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group is a leading enterprise in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, benefiting from rich phosphate rock and hydropower resources in Hubei province [5][21]. - The company has established a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, enhancing its competitive edge and liquidity [5][21]. Financial Performance - As of March 2025, the company's total assets reached 495.66 billion, with total liabilities at 207.05 billion and equity attributable to shareholders at 416.12 billion [3]. - The company's operating income for 2024 was 283.96 billion, with a net profit of 16.19 billion, reflecting a slight increase in revenue despite a decline in product prices [3][19]. Industry Environment - The phosphate rock supply remains tight, with domestic production expected to maintain high prices due to limited supply and strong downstream demand [11][12]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with major players like Hubei Xingfa benefiting from their resource-rich locations [11][12]. Investment Projects - The company issued 28 billion in convertible bonds in September 2022 to fund new projects, including a 200,000 tons/year phosphoric acid project and an 80,000 tons/year functional silicone project [7][8]. - As of March 2025, the balance of the special account for the raised funds was 0.25 billion, indicating effective fund management [7]. Competitive Position - Hubei Xingfa holds significant phosphate rock reserves, with 395 million tons of mining rights and an additional 412 million tons in exploration stages [5][21]. - The company is one of the largest producers of glyphosate in China, with a production capacity of 23,000 tons [18][21]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency has a stable outlook for the company, citing its strong resource and cost advantages, as well as its ability to withstand industry risks [6][11]. - The company plans to increase phosphate mining efforts in 2024, aiming for a significant rise in sales volume and profitability [5][21].

Group 1 - The fundamentals of Batian Co., Ltd. (002170) have been continuously improving, attracting attention from numerous investors and institutions due to its strong fundamentals and expected upward performance [1] - In the past six months, a total of 9 institutions have published research reports on Batian Co., with an average target price of 12.90 yuan for 2025 and a projected net profit ranging from 8.38 billion to 14.09 billion yuan, averaging 11.49 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 180.86% [1] - Ratings from institutions indicate a positive outlook, with 5 institutions recommending "buy," 2 recommending "recommend," and 2 recommending "increase holdings" [1] Group 2 - Batian Co. primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, and has developed a synergistic industrial pattern with phosphoric chemicals [2] - The company obtained mining rights for the Xiaogaozai phosphate mine in 2020, marking a significant milestone in its development, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of phosphate rock and an additional 900,000 tons under construction [2] - The company has a generous dividend commitment, planning to distribute at least 60% of total profits as dividends from 2024 to 2026, with a total dividend of 270 million yuan in 2024 and a payout ratio of 65.9% [2] Group 3 - Institutions predict a tight balance in global phosphate rock supply and demand from 2024 to 2025 due to declining ore grades and potential project delays, with market conditions expected to remain favorable [3] - Despite some planned domestic production capacities coming online in 2026-2027, stricter safety management policies may delay project construction and permit acquisition [3] - Batian Co. is recognized as a high-quality phosphoric chemical enterprise, with stable compound fertilizer operations and expected increases in phosphate production from the Xiaogaozai mine, which could drive performance growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Chuanheng Chemical Co., Ltd. maintains a stable credit rating of AA- for its corporate bonds, reflecting its competitive advantages in the phosphate market and solid financial performance [1][4]. Company Overview - The company was established on November 25, 2002, and is primarily engaged in the production and sale of phosphate rock and phosphate products [11]. - As of March 2025, the company has a registered capital of 539 million yuan, with Sichuan Chuanheng Holding Group Co., Ltd. holding 51.54% of the shares [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.72%, and a profit of 1.173 billion yuan, up 21.44% from the previous year [6][10]. - The company's total assets reached 12.923 billion yuan, with owner’s equity at 7.229 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [11]. - The company’s total debt decreased to 3.934 billion yuan by the end of 2024, down 5.62% from the previous year [7][10]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a leading market share in the domestic market for feed-grade monoammonium phosphate and has a strong competitive position in the phosphate industry [14]. - The company has a robust resource reserve, with significant phosphate rock resources across multiple mining rights, ensuring stable raw material supply [14]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks related to international trade, including trade protection measures and exchange rate fluctuations, as a significant portion of its revenue comes from exports [7][20]. - There are potential investment risks associated with the construction of new projects and the overall market environment [5][7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge by expanding its phosphate chemical industry chain and completing ongoing projects [5][6]. - The credit outlook remains stable, with potential for upgrades if the company significantly expands its business and asset scale [5][6].