古巴国家主席迪亚斯-卡内尔7月14日呼吁转变发展思路，通过提升国内生产、推动出口和减少对进口的 依赖实现经济发展。 迪亚斯-卡内尔当天在古巴第十届全国人民政权代表大会经济事务委员会工作会议上表示，相信通过转 变观念、付诸行动，古巴有能力逐步走出当前的经济困境。 古巴经济计划部长华金·阿隆索·巴斯克斯在会议上表示，2025年下半年，古巴政府将重点推进宏观经济 稳定计划，扩大外汇收入来源，加强本国粮食生产和更有效利用工业产能，持续推进国家电力系统恢复 计划，提升可再生能源在能源结构中的比重。（新华社） ...

他提到，2025年上半年全国出口创汇同比下降7%。烟草、水产品等出口虽有恢复，但未能弥补矿产、 蜂蜜、生物医药等产品出口下滑所带来的损失。这主要受制于原材料、能源和燃料短缺，以及国际市场 价格下跌和物流障碍。整体来看，古巴上半年商品出口计划仅完成62%，低于去年同期水平。 新华财经哈瓦那7月14日电（记者蒋彪）古巴经济计划部长华金·阿隆索·巴斯克斯（Joaquín Alonso Vázquez）14日在古巴第十届全国人民政权代表大会经济事务委员会工作会议上报告称，2024年古巴国 内生产总值（GDP）同比下降1.1%，虽较前年下降幅度略小，但经济整体仍处于收缩趋势。 阿隆索指出，在金融封锁、信贷受限和内部经济失衡的背景下，古巴通货膨胀压力大、外汇市场混乱， 以及外汇、燃料和电力等资源严重短缺，严重拖累了工业生产、制造业和基本公共服务的正常运作。 阿隆索说，为此，古巴政府制定了专项计划，致力于恢复电力生产能力并努力确保原材料供应，最大化 利用现有产能。此外，2025年下半年，政府将重点推进宏观经济稳定计划，扩大外汇收入来源，加强本 国粮食生产和更有效利用工业产能，持续推进国家电力系统恢复计划，提升可再生能源在能 ...

印尼总统：经过10年的谈判，我们已与欧盟达成自由贸易协定，印尼是东盟的重要组成部分，这将对经 济和地缘政治的稳定做出非常重要的贡献。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着近期央行持续在公开市场净回笼资金，市场流动性回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, emphasizes the government's commitment to fiscal rules and economic stability [1] Group 1 - The government aims to establish clear fiscal rules to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - Starmer highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment to foster growth and investment [1] - The focus on fiscal responsibility is intended to build public trust and confidence in the government's economic management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House indicated that the decision to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair is not imminent, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The White House stated that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair will not be made immediately, despite President Trump's potential plans to announce a new nominee this summer [2] - Trump has reportedly identified "three to four" candidates to replace Powell, expressing frustration over Powell's performance [2] - Potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, with Waller recently supporting a rate cut in contrast to Powell's cautious stance [2] Group 2: Dollar Value and Economic Implications - The dollar fell by 0.7% against a basket of currencies, reaching its lowest level since early 2022, influenced by speculation regarding the Fed Chair nomination [2][3] - The dollar has declined over 10% this year amid concerns about trade wars, debt sustainability, and threats to the Fed's independence [4] - Analysts suggest that if a nominee more aligned with Trump's desire for rate cuts is appointed, it could further weaken the dollar [3][4] Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Concerns are raised about the potential political influence on the Federal Reserve, which could undermine its independence and lead to economic instability [5] - Historical precedents indicate that political pressure on the Fed can result in negative economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency [5] - A recent OMFIF survey revealed that 70% of central bank reserve managers are reducing their dollar holdings due to the current political environment in the U.S. [5]

在提升服务上下功夫。就业公共服务重在提高专业化、精准性和可及性，确保政策资源真正惠及有就业 意愿的青年群体。加大对离校未就业、困难毕业生帮扶力度，帮助毕业生更好择业、更快就业。当前， 青年群体就业偏好日益多样化，应加快构建更加公平完善、弹性包容的就业环境，加强灵活就业和新就 业形态劳动者权益保障，加大对创业者的资金、场地和技术支持，为青年提供更多实现自我价值的机 会。 就业稳定是经济稳定的重要表现，高校毕业生等青年就业是促进就业重中之重。随着人口结构变化和产 业升级持续推进，青年就业面临的挑战将更加复杂。青年人失业率连续3个月回落是一个积极信号，但 是否意味着就业形势趋势性改善，还需要结合更长时间维度的数据和结构性就业矛盾的缓解情况来判 断。当前青年失业率整体仍处于较高水平，未来几个月，随着高校毕业生集中进入劳动力市场，青年失 业率或将季节性走高。稳定和扩大青年就业需要持续用力、更加给力，须臾不可松劲。 当前，青年群体就业偏好日益多样化，应加快构建更加公平完善、弹性包容的就业环境，加强灵活就业 和新就业形态劳动者权益保障，加大对创业者的资金、场地和技术支持，为青年提供更多实现自我价值 的机会。 在改善需求上下 ...

6月16日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，在实施更加积极有为的宏观政策后，5月国民经济顶住压力平稳 运行，稳中有进，为实现全年经济目标奠定了坚实的基础。 5月份，多项指标显示环比上涨。其中，5月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，环比增长0.61%， 制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5%。服务业环比也在加速。5月份，全国服务业生产指数 同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2%；服务业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.1%。制造业与服务业环 比增长表明5月份宏观生产制造活动稳中有进。 增长比较突出且超出市场预期的是消费。5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，比 上月加快1.3个百分点，环比增长0.93%，创2024年以来新高。5月消费超预期主要是多重利好政策带 动，叠加5月中旬就开启的"6.18"网购促销活动。此外，5月还有"五一""端午"假期对消费的拉动作用。 其中，"五一"小长假国内旅游出游人次同比增长6.4%，5月份餐饮收入同比增长5.9%，比上月加快0.7个 百分点。 超出预期的还有5月出口情况。5月份，我国货物进出口总额38098亿元，同比增长2.7%。其中，出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the overall economic operation shows strong support for the annual economic performance, despite complex environments faced this year [1] Economic Performance - The spokesperson, Fu Linghui, emphasized that the economy has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality under the leadership of the central government [1] - The long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, with clear characteristics of stability, advantages, resilience, and potential [1] Future Outlook - The economic stability is supported by solid foundations, guarantees, and backing, suggesting a favorable outlook for the future [1]

Group 1 - The global oil transportation market has been significantly impacted by the actions of the Houthi forces, with approximately 10% of oil transport disrupted since November 2023 [1] - The Red Sea is a critical trade route connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa, with the Suez Canal being a key hub for oil, gas, and other goods [3] - The attacks have led to ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transportation time by about 9 days and raising costs by at least 15% [3] Group 2 - Following airstrikes by the US and UK against the Houthis, crude oil prices rose by approximately 4% [3] - The ongoing tensions in the Red Sea pose significant risks to oil and gas supply chains, with market sensitivity leading to potential price volatility that could affect global economic stability [3] - The international community, including the US and UK, has taken military action to protect shipping interests in the Red Sea, while the UN has called for restraint and adherence to international law [5]