Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that dissenting members of the decision-making body are expected to explain their views in the coming days, with two members believing it is time to lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - There is an acknowledgment of differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, which is not surprising [1] - Powell described the recent meeting as quite successful despite the disagreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dissenting opinions from two members in the Federal Reserve's July decision statement, as highlighted by Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Insights - Bob Michele anticipates that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will assert that the dissenting opinions are not as significant as they may appear [1]

Group 1 - The global head of fixed income at JPMorgan, Bob Michele, anticipates that 1-2 individuals may dissent regarding the Federal Reserve's July decision statement [1] - Uncertainty has been somewhat alleviated [1] - The full impact of Trump's tariffs on the entire quarter has not yet been observed [1] - The Federal Reserve is also expected to remain inactive in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar may rise following the release of strong US GDP data and a cautious stance on interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Economic Data - The US second-quarter economic growth data is set to be released at 20:30 Beijing time [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy decision will be announced the following day at 02:00, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent increase in the dollar appears to be related to position adjustments ahead of key events rather than a fundamental reassessment of its value [1] - The potential rise in the dollar is expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing narrowed fluctuations ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with a high rebound that fails to break through, indicating a wait for direction in the early morning hours [1] Group 1 - The gold market is showing volatility as it approaches a critical decision from the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a notable high rebound in gold prices, but it has not managed to break through previous highs [1] - Market participants are awaiting further direction from the upcoming Federal Reserve announcement [1]

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and non-farm payroll data, which are expected to significantly impact gold market trends [1] Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing a short-term cooling trend [1] - The Federal Reserve's decisions and non-farm payroll data are anticipated to determine the future direction of gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a cautious bearish sentiment due to recent U.S. economic data, which has mitigated risk aversion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][6] - Recent ETF gold holdings have shown a slight outflow, indicating a short-term recovery in market risk appetite, which is suppressing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus for gold prices next week will be on U.S.-EU and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential optimism possibly pushing prices down to the $3300 per ounce level [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On a weekly chart, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with a critical resistance level at $3325; prices above this level indicate a bullish trend [3] - Daily analysis shows that gold is currently testing support levels, with a risk of breaking below these levels, which could lead to a test of weekly support areas [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on selling during rebounds and buying on dips, with key resistance at $3355-$3365 and support at $3320-$3310 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is facing a weak downward trend, with U.S. crude oil trading around $65.04 per barrel, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.3% [6] - Recent price movements were influenced by unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, which have affected market sentiment [6] - Brent crude futures saw a slight increase, closing at $69.18 per barrel, driven by various factors including potential restrictions on Russian gasoline exports [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with prices testing the $78 level, although recent MACD indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - Short-term trends indicate volatility, with frequent shifts between buying and selling pressure; the strategy recommends focusing on selling during price rebounds and buying on pullbacks [7] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at $67.0-$68.0, while support levels are noted at $63.0-$62.0 [7]