【现货】据Mysteel，截至11月24日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12700元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12600元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；基差535元/吨，日环比下跌45元/吨。 【原料】矿端消持稳为主，招标落地市场相对平静。菲律宾方面，北部Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地至42 美元/湿吨、Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地；印尼方面，11月（二期）内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2 美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26。镍铁价格区间继续下移，下游主流钢厂镍铁招标新 低下跌至880元/镍（舱底含税），铁厂生产积极性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。不锈钢低迷氛围 间接影响铬铁市场走弱，铬铁供应压力加大，叠加铬矿价格走跌，原料成本支撑下滑。 【供应】据Mysteel统计10月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量351.38万吨，月环比增加8.71万吨，增幅 2.54%，同比增加6.8%；300系180万吨，月环比增加3.73万吨，增幅2.1%，同比增加6.6%。11月排产 45.51万吨，月环比减少1.67%，同比增加4.1%；其中300系178.7万吨，月环比减少0.7%，同比 ...

另外美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）在乔治城大学演讲中，把金融稳定风险推到聚光灯下。她没有 明确表态12月利率路径，却直言不讳地说，目前处于历史高位的资产价格"大幅下跌的可能性正在上 升"，她对此"不会感到意外"。 今日周日，白银市场休市。周四在亚市早盘时段反弹至51.84美元/盎司后遭遇卖盘压制，后回落至51.00 美元关口下方。从周三创下的一周高点回落，但下行空间有限。周五呈下行趋势，银价持续下跌，跌下 50美元心理关口。 【要闻速递】 本周多位美联储官员表达对进一步降息的不安。费城联储银行主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）在宾夕 法尼亚州举行的联储会议上，直言不讳地表达了对12月利率决定的"谨慎态度"。她虽然支持了美联储9 月和10月的两次降息，但强调每一次降息都会大幅提高下一次降息的难度——因为政策利率正在从"略 微抑制经济"转向"实际刺激经济"的临界点，再贸然降息就可能彻底失控。 其次芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）在一次线上记者会上毫不掩饰自己的担忧： 通胀仍然高企，甚至某些指标显示还在恶化，在这种情况下继续"前置式"降息让他感到强烈不安。这番 ...

王爷说财经讯：紧急警报！2025年11月21日，比特币自4月以来首次跌破8.7万美元关口，单日狂跌超4%！ 24小时内超22万人爆仓，58亿人民币瞬间灰飞烟灭，加密货币总市值19天蒸发3个Coinbase体量！ 那么比特币这波暴跌到底是短期回调，还是熊市正式降临？你手里的仓位还好吗？接下来是抄底还是割肉？ 11月4日跌破10万美元整数关口，18日触及8.9万美元低点，20日直接击穿8.7万防线，较峰值跌幅高达29%，把2025年以来的涨幅全给抹没了。 不只是比特币，以太坊跌超5%，狗狗币直接腰斩，主流山寨币跌幅普遍超30%，整个加密市场一片哀嚎。 01、从12.6万到8.7万，比特币一个半月跌去30%？ 谁能想到，10月初还创下12.6万美元历史峰值的比特币，短短一个半月就上演"自由落体"。 更扎心的是，全链近30%的筹码已经进入亏损状态，这场景是不是似曾相识？ 02、比特币暴跌原因为何？ 其实，比特币这波下跌绝不是偶然，背后是三重力量的叠加绞杀： 第一、美联储"加息杀"击碎降息幻想！ 之前大家都赌2025年四季度降息，但随着非农数据的公布，10月美国核心PCE通胀率仍高达2.8%，远超2%的目标。 美联储当 ...

基本面： 周四（11月20日）亚盘时段，现货黄金扩大跌幅继续回吐本周盘中反弹空间，目前暂交投于4056美元附近。周三金价冲高回落，早盘一度狂飙1.6%，最高 摸至4132.66美元/盎司，可随着美元指数延续涨势，市场像被泼了一盆冷水，金价快速回落，美联储会议纪要偏向鹰派，美元指数刷新近两周高点，继续打 压黄金多头士气，金价最终仅收涨0.25%，报4077.79美元/盎司。 这次会议纪要堪称近年来最"撕裂"的一次："许多"委员明确反对12月降息，认为进一步降息会让已经高烧四年半的通胀彻底"根深蒂固"，甚至动摇公众对2% 通胀目标的信心；"大部分"委员警告，再降息可能被市场误读为美联储放弃抗通胀；虽然"几位"委员仍支持12月降息，但明显属于少数派；更罕见的是，上 次投票居然出现10:2的罕见分歧，两名反对者一鹰一鸽，显示连内部都吵翻天。 日线级别，金价昨日录得长上影线收盘测试压力，盘中最高触及4132美元附近后回吐涨幅并最终报收4100关口下方，或继续受限于中短期潜在双顶压制面临 回吐，后市或围绕4000大关展开更多争夺。1--4小时级别，短线走势自4245高点回吐涨幅测试4000美元后市场表现一度陷入收敛局面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the strong rise of the US dollar index have put significant pressure on international gold prices, which have fallen from a peak of $2078.8 per ounce in March to a low of $1618.3 per ounce last month. However, contrary to previous trends, domestic gold stores in China are experiencing poor sales despite the drop in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Poor Domestic Gold Sales - The decline in international gold prices has not translated into significant price drops in domestic gold stores due to the limited decrease in domestic gold prices, which are affected by the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar [3][5]. - The majority of gold sold in domestic stores consists of jewelry, which includes high processing and design fees that do not adjust with international gold price fluctuations, resulting in minimal price reductions for consumers [3][5]. - Domestic demand for gold has decreased significantly due to the ongoing economic downturn and the impact of repeated COVID-19 outbreaks, leading consumers to cut back on non-essential spending, including gold jewelry [5][7]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation shows a declining interest in gold jewelry, viewing it as outdated and preferring luxury items like designer bags and high-performance cars to express their personal style and economic status [7][9]. - Consumers are becoming increasingly savvy regarding the resale of gold, often facing unfavorable buyback prices compared to their purchase prices, which diminishes their willingness to invest in gold [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with gold falling to a low of $4032.10 before rebounding slightly to close at $4084.80, marking a decline of 2.07% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with a drop of $180 from the daily high to a low of $4032.10, before closing at $4084.80 [1] - Silver prices also fell significantly, dropping from a high of $53.53 to a low of $50.03, closing at $50.56, reflecting a decline of 3.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Jefferson indicated that interest rates are closer to neutral and suggested a slow approach due to potential data gaps from government shutdowns [1] - Kashkari expressed opposition to the last rate cut decision but remains cautious about the best course of action for the December meeting [1] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is closer to neutral rather than slightly tight [1] - Collins suggested that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for some time [1] - Daly opposed raising the 2% inflation target and stated it is premature to assert whether there will be a rate cut in December [1] - Logan found it difficult to support a rate cut in December [1]

Core Points - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his decision to retire early at the end of February next year, providing another opportunity for President Trump to exert influence within the Federal Reserve [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Bostic expressed a cautious stance, preferring to maintain the current interest rate levels until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target [2] - He believes the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive and that the more pressing risk remains price stability rather than the labor market signals, which he finds ambiguous [2] Group 2: Leadership and Succession - Bostic has served as Atlanta Fed President for eight years and is the first Black president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in the Fed's 111-year history [3] - Following Bostic's retirement announcement, the Atlanta Fed's board will form a search committee to find his successor, which will require approval from the Washington Fed Board [3] Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's interest in exerting greater control over the Federal Reserve is highlighted, especially as he seeks to see interest rate cuts [4] - The upcoming appointments of regional Fed presidents will be closely watched, as Trump aims to influence the Federal Reserve's direction, particularly after Powell's term ends in May [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index, surpassing the 100 mark, is attributed to a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and external factors such as tightening dollar liquidity and the depreciation of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The dollar index's rise since mid-September is linked to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance during the October meeting, which emphasized economic resilience and persistent inflation risks, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations [1][2]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment differs significantly from previous periods, with a lack of clear economic data making the market more susceptible to the Fed's hawkish comments [2][3]. Group 2: Currency Movements and External Influences - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, influenced by the election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister and subsequent fiscal and monetary easing, has contributed to the dollar's strength [2]. - The widening yield spread between US and Japanese bonds following the Fed's meeting has also facilitated carry trades, further supporting the dollar's rise [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Analysts suggest that while the dollar may have short-term upward potential, the current situation does not indicate a new long-term appreciation cycle for the dollar [3]. - Market expectations for the Fed's December meeting indicate a probability of maintaining interest rates, which could influence the dollar's performance depending on employment data and inflation trends [3]. - The potential for increased dollar supply due to the Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction could weaken the dollar's upward momentum [3]. Group 4: External Economic Conditions - Japan's high core inflation may provide the Bank of Japan with room to raise interest rates, which could limit the extent of the dollar's strength [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and putting pressure on copper prices. Technically, copper is at a historical high, facing significant pressure, and short - term long - position closing intentions are rising. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream buyers showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the support at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. They increased with rising positions in the morning, reaching a high of 21,400 yuan/ton, breaking the Monday high, and then declined with falling positions in the afternoon. Aluminum is more affected by domestic macro factors. Recently, the domestic anti - involution expectations have risen again, which is positive for aluminum prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 5 - day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a narrow range. The non - ferrous metal market showed differentiation, and nickel lacked driving forces. The weakness in the industrial aspect made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the copper cable industry, automotive wiring harness orders are stable, and State Grid orders are mainly for essential needs, while new orders in other industries are under pressure. In terms of inventory, enterprises are cautious in procurement, and both raw material and finished product inventory ratios have decreased [10]. - **Aluminum**: Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary - General of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that the processing fees in the non - ferrous metal smelting industry are currently low, and "anti - involution" is crucial for high - quality development. The association proposed three measures: setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals like copper, lead, and zinc; enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals; and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalized and high - value - added products [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 31, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum monthly spread, average aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][40].

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 23 days, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, impacting economic data availability and federal employees [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was released on October 24, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous month's 2.9% [1][5] - The delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown has forced the market to rely on alternative indicators, such as the ADP employment report [2][3] Economic Data Impact - The Senate rejected a temporary funding bill, leading to continued government shutdown and affecting the release of critical economic data [2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has suspended data collection and reporting, delaying the September non-farm payroll report and CPI data [2][4] - The absence of official data is complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, as highlighted by Fed officials [4][7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The CPI report indicated a 0.3% month-on-month increase, lower than the expected 0.4%, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month [5] - The market is anticipating a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting due to lower-than-expected inflation data [7] - Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a shift in focus from inflation control to balancing growth and employment, indicating a potential for further rate cuts [7][8]