今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于14.995一线上方，今日开盘于14.835元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报15.016元/克，上涨1.05%，最高触及15.134元/克，最低下探14.835元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 日图来看，纸白银目前价格突破新高，登上15元关口，行情多空交锋，RSI指标显现仍有上涨空间，布 林带开口扩大，处于上涨轨道，纸白银走势下方关注14.8-14.20支撑；上方关注15.00-15.50阻力。 现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗普已开始面试潜在继任者，其中克里斯托弗·沃勒是热 门人选之一。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 沃勒在接受特朗普面试前誓言"绝对"捍卫美联储独立性，尽管特朗普一直要求美联储降息，并在采访中 表示下一任主席应就货币政策征询其意见。这种政治干预的潜在风险让市场担忧美联储的政策独立性可 能受损，从而增加经济政策的不确定性，进而利好白银。 同时，其他候选人如白宫经济顾问哈西特和前美联储理事瓦尔许也进入视野，但哈西特因与特朗普关系 密切而引发独立性质疑。耶鲁大学的一项调查显示，虽然企业领导者强烈支持沃勒，但仅有 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has identified his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with an announcement expected before December 25 [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is considered a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair [3]. - Hassett has a strong academic background with a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously worked at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough suggests a desire for a more aggressive monetary policy approach [3]. - The potential nomination of Hassett led to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, dropping below 4% [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - Analysts express concerns about Hassett's ability to maintain unity within the Federal Reserve and the potential for increased pressure from Trump, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3].

Group 1 - The core message is that President Trump has identified his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chairman and plans to announce it soon, potentially by December 25 [1][3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the announcement regarding the new Fed Chair is expected shortly, aligning with Trump's previous criticisms of current Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough [3] - The potential frontrunner for the position is Kevin Hassett, who has a strong background in economics and has served in various roles during Trump's first term, indicating a preference for a candidate aligned with Trump's economic policies [3] Group 2 - Hassett's nomination could lead to significant market reactions, as evidenced by the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% following speculation about his candidacy [3] - Despite his qualifications, analysts express concerns about Hassett's ability to maintain the Federal Reserve's independence and internal cohesion, suggesting he may be more susceptible to political pressures from Trump [3]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, especially given President Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed and his attempts to place loyalists within the institution, which raises concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The shortlist for the next Federal Reserve Chair includes current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to submit a candidate list to President Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Trump expected to make a decision by the end of the year [1]. Market Concerns - Trump's continuous criticism of Powell and the Fed's monetary policy is perceived as undermining the Fed's independence, with concerns that his appointed candidate may lack independence [2]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October monetary policy meeting, influenced by the potential new chair's stance on monetary policy [2]. Analysis of Candidates - According to CITIC Securities, the main competition for the Fed Chair position is between Waller and Hassett, with market sentiment favoring Waller due to concerns over Hassett's loyalty to Trump [3]. - The market is wary of Hassett's potential appointment due to previous resistance faced by Trump's nominee Stephen Moore, suggesting that Waller may ultimately be the favored candidate [3]. - If Waller is appointed, it could lead to a reversal in market expectations regarding the Fed's independence, positively impacting overall dollar assets and negatively affecting gold prices [3].

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut during the meeting, reflecting investor sentiment that the Fed is prioritizing labor market performance over inflation concerns [3][6]. - There is a nearly 70% probability of two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, suggesting an acceleration of the easing cycle and a potential rebound in risk sentiment [3][6]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas of the Meeting - The meeting will focus on whether the Fed's monetary policy is at a turning point, with a rate cut potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target [6]. - The independence of the Fed's policy is under scrutiny, particularly in light of ongoing political pressures and controversies surrounding board nominations, raising questions about Powell's ability to make independent decisions [6]. - The newly released economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot will be closely watched, especially regarding expectations for terminal interest rates before 2026, which could influence global asset allocation and market confidence [6]. - Powell's press conference will be crucial, as his comments on inflation, employment, and policy direction, along with responses to political pressures, may significantly impact market expectations [6].

Group 1 - The long-term value support for gold remains due to the continuous decline of the "U.S. dollar credit system," which has been reinforced by recent events [3] - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump marks the first time in 112 years that a governor has been removed, raising concerns about the political norms and constitutional order [3] - Trump's team has drafted a secret plan to enhance White House intervention in the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the Fed's policy independence [4] Group 2 - The resignation of Cook provides Trump with the opportunity to nominate a third Federal Reserve governor, which could lead to a majority that aligns with his stance, fundamentally affecting future monetary policy [4] - Gold pricing reflects the opportunity cost of interest-bearing assets, with its performance being influenced by the Fed's interest rate cycle and the global economic cycle [4] - In periods of recession or stagflation, gold tends to perform better as a safe-haven asset compared to cash, highlighting its value during economic downturns [4] Group 3 - Recently, gold has broken through previous resistance levels, indicating market confidence in its value [6] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to gold ETFs as a potential investment opportunity [6]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Group 1 - Trump announced a significant reduction in drug prices, claiming a potential decrease of 1400% to 1500%, and plans to impose higher tariffs on imported drugs, indicating a strong stance on pharmaceutical pricing [1] - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer, received letters from Trump urging them to lower drug prices within 60 days, with threats of using all means to protect American families from drug pricing abuses [1] - The proposed tariffs on imported drugs could reach as high as 250%, marking the most severe plan to date, aimed at encouraging pharmaceutical manufacturers to bring production back to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Industry experts expressed concerns that the proposed tariffs could increase costs, disrupt the drug supply chain, and pose risks to patients, with the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) stating that drugs have historically been exempt from tariffs due to cost implications [2] - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as an escalation of his attacks on the central bank, with implications for future monetary policy and potential shifts towards more dovish members [3][4] - Powell's recent remarks at the Jackson Hole conference suggested a potential for interest rate cuts in September, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could be influenced by the ongoing power struggle within the Federal Reserve [4]

Market Overview - On August 20, US tech stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 2% and falling below 21,000 points for the first time since August 7 [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 3%, with Nvidia seeing a drop of nearly 4% [1] - The VIX, known as the "fear index," surged over 10% during this period [1] Major Tech Stocks Performance - Major tech stocks saw widespread losses, with Apple down 1.54%, Tesla down 2.68%, Amazon down 1.97%, Facebook down 1.24%, Google down 1.16%, Nvidia down 1.54%, and Microsoft down 0.77% [3][4] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 1.79%, with Intel dropping over 6% and Micron Technology down over 5% [4] Options Market Activity - Wall Street traders are increasingly purchasing put options to hedge against the risk of further declines in tech stocks, particularly those tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index [12] - The cost of hedging against significant declines is nearing a three-year high, indicating heightened concern among traders [12] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index weakened, reported at 98.173, down 0.11% [8][9] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 51.5% probability of another cut in October [16] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to manage inflation effectively are rising, particularly in light of political pressures [19]