三、独立性表态与政治互动 米兰披露与特朗普会前通话仅涉及祝贺与祝福，未涉及投票意向或"点阵图"立场。他重申将完全独立解读经济数 据，拒绝接受任何特定行动指示，有效缓解政治干预疑虑，维护美联储政策自主性。 四、卡什卡利观点与市场信任 一、独立立场与政策分歧 新任美联储理事米兰在9月19日公开强调政策独立性，明确表示将基于客观经济数据分析制定决策，不受外部干 预。其首次参与货币政策会议即支持降息50个基点，成为唯一持此立场的委员。米兰认为当前利率水平与"中性利 率"存在显著差距，且严格移民政策将抑制住房需求、推动成本下降，从而抵消通胀压力，挑战美联储现行渐进式 降息策略。 二、激进降息路径与逻辑 米兰预测年底前需再下调利率超100个基点，并强调未观测到关税政策引发显著通胀，反而边境管控推动通胀放 缓。他警告若利率长期偏离中性水平，将严重威胁就业目标实现。其政策主张基于深度数据分析，预示未来将持 续推动更激进调整，可能引发市场波动。 明尼亚波利斯联储主席卡什卡利认可当前降息决策，认为就业市场风险要求采取行动支撑劳动力市场，同时关税 引发通胀急升风险较低。他将米兰上任视为常规人事更迭，并援引10年期美债收益率降至约4 ...

美联储于当地时间9月16日至17日举行9月议息会议。决议结果及经济预测将于北京时间9月18日凌晨2点公布，随后美联储主席 鲍威尔将于2:30举行新闻发布会。 市场普遍预期本次会议将降息25个基点。期货定价显示，年底前进一步降息两次的概率接近70%。这一预期反映出投资者认为 美联储更关注劳动力市场表现而非通胀压力，可能预示宽松周期加速，推动风险情绪回升，美元指数承压。今年以来，美指累 计下跌近11%，持续走弱。 本次会议受到高度关注，主要聚焦以下几方面： 一是货币政策是否迎来转折。若美联储如预期降息25个基点，将不仅是利率调整，更可能代表宽松周期的开启。目前就业增长 放缓、通胀仍高于目标，加大了降息压力。 二是美联储政策独立性问题面临关注。在政治压力持续、理事提名争议不断的背景下，鲍威尔如何应对舆论对其独立决策能力 的质疑，成为外界观察焦点。 三是新发布的经济预测（SEP）与点阵图（Dot Plot）。市场重点关注2026年之前的终端利率预期是否会下调，这将影响全球资 产配置方向和市场信心。 此外，鲍威尔记者会的表态也至关重要。其关于通胀、就业及政策路径的阐释，以及对政治压力的回应，都可能对市场预期产 生显著影 ...

Group 1 - The long-term value support for gold remains due to the continuous decline of the "U.S. dollar credit system," which has been reinforced by recent events [3] - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump marks the first time in 112 years that a governor has been removed, raising concerns about the political norms and constitutional order [3] - Trump's team has drafted a secret plan to enhance White House intervention in the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the Fed's policy independence [4] Group 2 - The resignation of Cook provides Trump with the opportunity to nominate a third Federal Reserve governor, which could lead to a majority that aligns with his stance, fundamentally affecting future monetary policy [4] - Gold pricing reflects the opportunity cost of interest-bearing assets, with its performance being influenced by the Fed's interest rate cycle and the global economic cycle [4] - In periods of recession or stagflation, gold tends to perform better as a safe-haven asset compared to cash, highlighting its value during economic downturns [4] Group 3 - Recently, gold has broken through previous resistance levels, indicating market confidence in its value [6] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to gold ETFs as a potential investment opportunity [6]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Group 1 - Trump announced a significant reduction in drug prices, claiming a potential decrease of 1400% to 1500%, and plans to impose higher tariffs on imported drugs, indicating a strong stance on pharmaceutical pricing [1] - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer, received letters from Trump urging them to lower drug prices within 60 days, with threats of using all means to protect American families from drug pricing abuses [1] - The proposed tariffs on imported drugs could reach as high as 250%, marking the most severe plan to date, aimed at encouraging pharmaceutical manufacturers to bring production back to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Industry experts expressed concerns that the proposed tariffs could increase costs, disrupt the drug supply chain, and pose risks to patients, with the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) stating that drugs have historically been exempt from tariffs due to cost implications [2] - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as an escalation of his attacks on the central bank, with implications for future monetary policy and potential shifts towards more dovish members [3][4] - Powell's recent remarks at the Jackson Hole conference suggested a potential for interest rate cuts in September, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could be influenced by the ongoing power struggle within the Federal Reserve [4]

Market Overview - On August 20, US tech stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 2% and falling below 21,000 points for the first time since August 7 [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 3%, with Nvidia seeing a drop of nearly 4% [1] - The VIX, known as the "fear index," surged over 10% during this period [1] Major Tech Stocks Performance - Major tech stocks saw widespread losses, with Apple down 1.54%, Tesla down 2.68%, Amazon down 1.97%, Facebook down 1.24%, Google down 1.16%, Nvidia down 1.54%, and Microsoft down 0.77% [3][4] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 1.79%, with Intel dropping over 6% and Micron Technology down over 5% [4] Options Market Activity - Wall Street traders are increasingly purchasing put options to hedge against the risk of further declines in tech stocks, particularly those tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index [12] - The cost of hedging against significant declines is nearing a three-year high, indicating heightened concern among traders [12] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index weakened, reported at 98.173, down 0.11% [8][9] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 51.5% probability of another cut in October [16] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to manage inflation effectively are rising, particularly in light of political pressures [19]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are experiencing rare divisions regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, with two dissenting votes during the July meeting signaling potential market concerns [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the key interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, despite dissent from two members who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming release of the July meeting minutes is expected to reveal the depth of internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding dovish and hawkish stances on inflation [1] Group 2 - Continuous pressure from the Trump administration for interest rate cuts is raising concerns about the independence of economic policy decisions, as political influences may be affecting the Federal Reserve's actions [2] - The Federal Reserve officials have historically avoided political commentary, but the ongoing competition for the Fed Chair position complicates their ability to maintain this neutrality [2] - Investors are likely to scrutinize the meeting minutes for indications of political interference that could undermine the Federal Reserve's policy independence [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve Chair soon, with a narrowed selection of candidates, indicating dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's interest rate policies [2][3][4] - Trump has mentioned that the candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include two individuals named Kevin, specifically Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, along with two others, one of whom is speculated to be current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [3][4] - Both Kevin candidates advocate for lower interest rates, which aligns with Trump's stance, and market predictions have shifted to reflect a 35% chance for each of them to be appointed as the next Fed Chair [4][5] Group 2 - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler provides Trump an opportunity to appoint a pro-rate cut official without waiting for her term to end, potentially influencing the timeline for selecting the next Fed Chair [6][7] - The unexpected resignation of Kugler may lead to a restructuring of the Fed leadership sooner than anticipated, which could impact the independence of the Fed and its policy decisions [7][8] - Despite the recent disappointing employment data, which has led to increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, Fed officials maintain that the labor market remains healthy, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The decision reflects a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, with 9 out of 12 voting members supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - This marks the first time in over 30 years that two Federal Reserve governors have publicly expressed differing opinions on interest rate decisions, indicating deep-seated divisions in monetary policy [1] - Chairman Powell acknowledged these divisions but emphasized that the majority believes inflation remains slightly above the 2% target and that the current policy rate is in a "moderately restrictive" range [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Political Pressures - Financial markets experienced notable volatility following Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 171.71 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 31.38 points [2] - Political pressure is increasing, with President Trump publicly calling for immediate rate cuts and suggesting that a reduction to 1% could save the government significant debt costs [2] - Powell reiterated the importance of basing monetary policy adjustments on solid economic and inflation data, underscoring the need to respect the independence of the central bank [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators - Powell's statements indicate a hawkish stance, with no signals for a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the current rate is only "moderately restrictive" and that the labor market remains strong [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 68% to 45%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate increased to 55% following Powell's comments [3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains a critical factor for future policy decisions, with Powell noting that the transmission of tariff costs is still in its early stages and that the overall impact is yet to be fully assessed [4] Group 4: Tariff Implications and Trade Negotiations - Market participants warn that U.S. importers' buffer inventories are depleting, which may enhance the motivation to pass on tariff costs [4] - Powell highlighted that while many U.S. companies intend to pass on cost pressures to consumers, competitive market conditions limit their actual ability to do so [4] - Recent signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Europe trade negotiations could potentially reduce inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with more flexibility in policy responses [4] Group 5: Key Economic Reports Ahead - The upcoming employment reports and inflation data before the September meeting are expected to be crucial in breaking the current policy deadlock [5] - The Federal Reserve's ability to balance its policy independence with the need to respond to current economic realities will be a significant test of its policy acumen [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change in rates this year [1][4] - Market expectations for a rate cut have been pushed back, with predictions now suggesting a possible cut in December rather than September, primarily due to rising inflation concerns [1][8] - The FOMC's statement indicated a moderation in economic activity growth, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties in the economic outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results following the FOMC announcement, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly in light of President Trump's pressure for rate cuts [5][6] - The potential for a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could influence future monetary policy, although the structure of the FOMC limits the impact of any single appointment [7][8]