申银万国期货分析指出，美联储7月利率会议继续按兵不动，但美联储内部观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过 人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落 地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下价位较 高黄金上行迟疑，金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现震荡走势。 消息面上，今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有 两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数 还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 8月20日，受美股回落，美元走弱和美债收益率下滑支撑，市场避险需求上升，金价大幅反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.00%报3392.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.3%，黄 金股ETF(159562)涨1.39%。 ...

据《圣保罗州报》报道，阿达表示，美国将贸易问题与巴西前总统博索纳罗司法案件挂钩，试图通过关税威胁迫使巴西接受一种无法谈判且不符 合宪法的情况。他说，巴西在谈判桌上已经"竭尽全力"，至于接下来会发生什么，必须"问问那边"。阿达还提到，他与美国财长贝森特的会晤被 取消，是由美国政府方面提出的。当被问及贝森特的举动是否可以被视为一种"挑衅"时，阿达回应说："我不能犯错，因为目前的局势很紧张。" 【环球时报综合报道】"财政部长表示，通过加征关税，美国试图将一种无法谈判且违反巴西宪法的解决方案强加给巴西。"巴西《圣保罗州报》 以此为题报道称，巴西财长费尔南多·阿达18日在出席一场活动时表示，目前巴美间的关税谈判陷入僵局。在美国对巴西部分商品加征高额关税 后，未来两国之间的贸易额可能会进一步下降。 据法新社报道，美国国务院西半球事务局18日发文称，巴西联邦最高法院法官亚历山大·德莫赖斯对于那些寻求进入美国及美国市场的企业和个人 而言是"有毒的"，"没有任何外国法院可以撤销美国的制裁，或保护某人免受违反制裁的严重后果"。巴西《经济价值报》称，美国针对德莫赖斯 的这一最新反应，发生在巴西联邦最高法院大法官弗拉维奥·迪诺的裁决 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed import anti-dumping preliminary ruling is established, and rapeseed meal will maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium and long term [1][41] Summary by Directory I. Preliminary Ruling on Anti-dumping Investigation of Canadian Rapeseed Imports by China - The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports is established. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, determining the existence of dumping and requiring importers to pay a 75.8% margin from August 14 [8][9] - There is a small probability of a turnaround between China and Canada before the final ruling. Stakeholders can submit written comments within 10 days, and Canada may send a high-level trade envoy for consultations [10] - Canadian rapeseed imports will be stagnant in the short term, and alternatives are being sought. Ports may require ships to pay the margin or return, and importers may turn to Russia, Australia, and the Middle East [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Domestic Meal - Soybean meal enters the peak season of supply and demand, and its price is stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of imported soybeans declined in August but increased year-on-year, oil mill soybean crush volume remained high, and soybean meal production increased in July [12][13][14] - Rapeseed meal demand is at the end of the peak season, with both bullish and bearish factors. Aquatic product demand will be concentrated in the next three months, but the annual import volume of rapeseed is insufficient, and the demand will enter the off-season after the National Day [28] III. Rapeseed Meal Maintains a Relatively Strong Pattern in the Medium and Long Term - There are uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, as well as in the final ruling of the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation and China's dependence on soybean and rapeseed imports [41] - Key future variables include the yield per unit and total output of the new US soybean season, and the follow-up of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [41] - Bullish factors include uncertainties in new US soybean weather and trade negotiations, and the peak demand season of domestic soybean meal. Bearish factors include the relatively high short-term inventory after the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the passing of the peak season of aquatic product demand, and the futures premium structure [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, global risk aversion has decreased, and the US dollar has rebounded. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations, but policy stimulus expectations have increased, and domestic risk appetite has generally risen [2]. - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. Among the commodity sectors, the black sector has increased short - term volatility, the non - ferrous sector is expected to fluctuate and it is advisable to be cautiously long, the energy and chemical sector is expected to fluctuate weakly, and precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, all of which require cautious observation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, the US retail sales in July increased as expected, and the market has reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier proposed to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended by 90 days, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties and increasing domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, film and television theaters, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Although China's economic data in July was weak, policy stimulus expectations have increased, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short - term, it is advisable to watch cautiously [2]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have declined slightly. The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff collection, and the real demand has weakened. The inventory of five major steel products has increased, and the supply of rebar is relatively low while the supply of plates is relatively stable. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have continued to decline slightly. Although the steel mill profits are high in the short - term, the iron water production is expected to decrease as important events approach. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price may weaken periodically later [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and that of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The market performance is good, and the manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is high. The manganese ore price is firm. The iron alloy price is expected to be weak - oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply has increased, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The price upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply is stable, the demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the profit has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered later [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of the US - Russia negotiation. The copper mine supply is increasing, and the domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has declined due to US tariff measures. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has increased and then stabilized. The medium - term upside is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening rebound basis [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production cost has increased, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 has slightly declined, the mine end is expected to become looser, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the upside is restricted [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. Due to the suspension of a mine, the supply is short - term favorable, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon has declined slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon has risen. The warehouse receipt pressure has increased. Pay attention to the progress of the photovoltaic enterprise symposium organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Ukraine meeting has dampened the expectation of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market is uncertain, and the oil price has been fluctuating in a narrow range [14]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, asphalt has followed the decline in crude oil prices. The asphalt market is still weak in the peak season, and it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near future [14]. - **PX**: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a correction in the energy and chemical sector. PX is still in a tight supply situation in the short - term and is expected to oscillate [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand has rebounded slightly, the processing margin is low, and the supply is restricted. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the factory inventory is still high. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders have increased slightly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, and the port market is weak. The regional differentiation is obvious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - **PP**: The supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for peak - season stocking later [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of a turn. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for demand and stocking [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is consolidating, waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop inspection. The US soybean growth indicators are good [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has been relieved. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed is limited. Pay attention to the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in the near - month contracts [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil inventory at ports is decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter [20]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. The Indonesian and Indian inventories are low, the export has improved, and the price is expected to run strongly [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is weak, the market trading is inactive, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. The corn futures market is weak [21]. - **Pigs**: The spot hog price is weak, the supply has increased, and the price decline has narrowed. Pay attention to the performance of hog prices during the consumption peak in late August [21].

Group 1 - The trade relationship between the US and India is rapidly deteriorating, with the cancellation of the US trade representative's visit to New Delhi and the postponement of bilateral trade negotiations [2][3] - The US has announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports as a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, which is set to take effect on August 27 [3][4] - India's exports to the US accounted for nearly 20% of its total exports, valued at $86.51 billion in the last fiscal year ending March 2025 [5] Group 2 - The proposed bilateral trade agreement negotiations have stalled after five rounds, primarily due to India's refusal to open its agricultural and dairy markets, which are critical to its economy [4][6] - The imposition of high tariffs by the US could severely impact India's manufacturing ambitions and economic growth, with potential negative effects on small and medium-sized enterprises in the apparel sector [5][6] - Despite the trade conflict, both countries are still open to negotiations, with India having made several concessions, including tariff exemptions on industrial goods [7][8]

本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | Million | 国投期货 SDIC FUTURE | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月18日 | | 棉花, | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱交投有所好转，价格稳中略偏强。截至7月底，商业库 在为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为119.83万吨，环比减少52.74万吨，同比减少 35. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of policy stimulus. The overall risk appetite in the domestic market has increased, with short - term bullish sentiment for stocks and cautious optimism for commodities [2]. - The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term support has weakened. Black metals are expected to be weak in the short term, while non - ferrous metals and new energy metals show mixed trends. Energy and chemical products are likely to remain in a weak or narrow - range oscillation pattern. Agricultural products present complex supply - demand relationships and price trends [4][6][14][17]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US President announced significant progress with Russia, reducing global risk - aversion sentiment. US retail sales in July met expectations, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased. Domestically, July economic data slowed down and missed expectations. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy plan and the extension of the China - US tariff truce may boost consumption and reduce short - term tariff uncertainties [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like batteries, securities, and banks, the domestic stock market rose. With economic data underperforming and policy support, the short - term upward momentum has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, but beware of high - level corrections [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, precious metals oscillated weakly. Inflation data fluctuations and Fed policy uncertainties restricted the upside. Long - term prospects are positive due to monetary easing and central bank gold - buying demand [4]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The US expansion of steel and aluminum tariff scope is negative for steel billets and hot - rolled coils. Real - world demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and supply may decline further. A short - term weak - oscillation approach is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, prices rebounded slightly. With approaching important events, iron - water production may decline. Supply is under pressure, and prices may weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Manganese ore prices are rising, and some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and eager to resume production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is excessive, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [8][9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals - **Copper**: US PPI data exceeded expectations. Copper supply is expected to be stable, and domestic demand may weaken. The strong price trend may not last [10]. - **Aluminum**: The US expansion of aluminum tariffs affects global exports. Aluminum fundamentals are weakening, and mid - term upside is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term but have limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply may increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production is at a new high, raw - material support is strengthening, and inventory is shifting downstream. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production is increasing, inventory is high, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Production is expected to increase in August. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and attention should be paid to the August 19th photovoltaic enterprise symposium [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Russia talks had no substantial results. The oil market may face an oversupply situation in 2026. Short - term short positions are recommended, but beware of geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil prices are weakening, and asphalt prices are under pressure. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight supply situation in the short term and will oscillate until PTA device changes [14]. - **PTA**: Supply is restricted, demand is slightly increasing, and prices are supported but have limited upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both increase slightly, maintaining an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are driven down by sector resonance. Observe terminal orders for de - stocking [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, while the port market is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is slightly rising. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season restocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure persists, and demand shows signs of recovery. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The net short position of funds in the CBOT soybean market is increasing. A bumper harvest may be realized, but the export situation is uncertain. The price of 1000 cents per bushel is temporarily supported [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is rising in the short term, but the spot market is not following. The cost - driven logic may weaken [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Vegetable oil inventory is high and difficult to deplete, while soybean oil and palm oil show different trends. Consider the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage strategy [18]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with low trading activity and sufficient inventory in downstream enterprises. The futures market is sluggish [18]. - **Pigs**: Weekend spot prices were weak, but the decline has narrowed. Observe the performance during the late - August consumption peak [18][19].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. trade delegation canceled its visit to India, casting doubt on ongoing tariff negotiations [1][4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [1][5] - The cancellation of the trade talks is expected to delay the bilateral trade agreement that was aimed to be finalized by September-October [4][10] Group 2: India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that India will not compromise on its national interests despite U.S. tariff pressures [2][8] - Modi emphasized the protection of farmers and laborers' interests in his Independence Day speech, promoting self-reliance and domestic production [8][9] - The Indian government is actively pursuing trade negotiations through multiple channels, indicating the importance of the U.S. as a trade partner [4][10] Group 3: Impact on Industries - The increased tariffs have led to significant disruptions in Indian exports, particularly in the metal products and pharmaceutical sectors [10][9] - Indian exporters are facing challenges with canceled orders and financial difficulties due to the heightened tariffs [10] - The pharmaceutical industry, a key sector for Indian exports to the U.S., may face additional tariffs up to 250%, which could severely impact its operations [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ (Not clearly defined in the given content, but seems to imply a certain bullish tendency) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, for observation only) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, for observation only) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, butadiene rubber, timber, and logs. It provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends of each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot was stable with average spot trading. Pure - cotton yarn trading improved this week with a slightly stronger price. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons month - on - month and 58.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory digestion in July was good, and it is expected to improve further in August. The market is cautiously optimistic about future Sino - US trade negotiations. There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. The USDA August report was bullish, with US cotton production significantly reduced by 30.2 million tons to 287.7 million tons, and the global ending inventory also decreased. The recommended operation is to buy on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Due to less rainfall in July, the production progress accelerated, with the cane crushing volume and sugar production increasing year - on - year. However, due to more rainfall in the early stage, the overall production progress was still slow, and some international institutions lowered the production forecast for this year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year was fast, the inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. In June, the sugar import volume increased year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume this year was still low. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the production forecast for the next season. The import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the production forecast for the 25/26 season is uncertain. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather conditions and cane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated upward. Currently, the market demand for apples is poor, the cold - storage shipment speed is slow, and the spot price is weak. On the other hand, the remaining cold - storage inventory is not large, and storage merchants are actively shipping. The price of early - maturing apples was high after their listing, but the overall quality was average. As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 46.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 5.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the production forecast for the new season. The western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, but the impact of low temperatures on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. On the other hand, the flower volume in the producing areas was sufficient this year, and there are still differences in the production forecast. The recommended operation is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of RU, NR, and BR all increased. The domestic spot price of natural rubber increased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the FOB price of butadiene at foreign ports was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand was stable with a slight decline. In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical under maintenance, Xinjiang Landi planning for maintenance, Yihua Nuclear Plastics restarted, and Dushanzi Petrochemical operating at a low load. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise significantly. Jilun's new 200,000 - ton butadiene plant was successfully put into production. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded this week, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises increased. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao reported by Longzhong continued to decline to 62 million tons, and both the bonded and general trade inventories in Qingdao continued to decline. The social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber reported by Fuchuang continued to decline to 1.15 million tons. As imported goods arrived at ports one after another, the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to rise significantly to 2.04 million tons. Overall, the demand performance is average, the supply of natural rubber increases, the synthetic rubber supply decreases, the rubber inventory declines, the market sentiment improves, and there is an expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US. The strategy is to wait and see for RU, and be bullish for NR and BR [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures declined with a large intraday decline. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5850 yuan/ton, the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5300 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was stable at 4200 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 209.9 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is still weak. After entering August, the downstream may gradually transition to the peak season, which may boost the demand. The recommended operation is to buy on dips [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In terms of supply, the arrival volume increased last week. However, the foreign offer has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the increase in the domestic spot price was small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the daily average shipment volume at ports fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters. The overall shipment situation was good. As of August 8, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.08 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%. The total log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The recommended operation is to wait and see [7]