Core Viewpoint - The software ETF (515230) experienced a pullback during trading, but funds have been actively entering the market, with a net inflow exceeding 500 million yuan over the past 20 days [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - External disturbances are accelerating the pace of domestic software localization, particularly due to frequent U.S. technology blockades against China's industrial software since 2018, which poses a "bottleneck" risk for products like EDA [1]. - The urgency for self-sufficiency in domestic industrial software is increasing, driven by the dual forces of localization and intelligence [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The software industry is expected to enter a high-speed development phase under the dual drivers of localization and intelligence [1]. - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects listed companies involved in software development, services, and related technologies, reflecting the overall performance of the software sector [1]. - The constituent stocks cover various sub-sectors, including application software, system software, and internet services, highlighting the high-tech attributes and growth characteristics of the software industry [1].

Core Insights - The software service index in China has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of 2.19% as of October 28, 2025, driven by significant gains in key stocks such as Kingsoft Office, which rose by 8.77% [1][3] - The software ETF has experienced a cumulative increase of 3.28% over the past week, indicating a robust performance in the sector [1][3] Market Performance - The software ETF recorded a turnover rate of 7.77% and a transaction volume of 4.51 billion yuan, reflecting active trading [3] - Over the past two weeks, the software ETF's scale has increased by 92.39 million yuan, with a notable growth in shares by 76 million [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the software ETF was 11.84 million yuan, with a total of 112 million yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [3] Growth Projections - By 2027, the market size driven by domestic substitution in government procurement is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18% [3][4] - The Chinese operating system market is projected to reach 25 billion yuan by 2025, while the database market is expected to grow to 51.2 billion yuan [4] Industry Developments - The domestic computing ecosystem is continuously improving, with companies like Cambrian optimizing AI model compatibility and reducing costs in long-sequence scenarios [4] - The market share of domestic CAD software manufacturers has risen to 27%, and breakthroughs have been made in EDA tools for circuit design [4] Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the software service index account for 62.41% of the index, with notable performers including iFlytek, Tonghuashun, and Kingsoft Office [4][6] - The performance of key stocks includes iFlytek at 2.33%, Tonghuashun at 3.65%, and Kingsoft Office at 8.77%, indicating strong market interest [6]

Group 1: Software ETF Performance - The software ETF experienced a turnover of 4.63% during trading, with a transaction volume of 267 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the software ETF's scale increased by 77.65 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The software ETF's share increased by 266 million shares in the past week, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the software ETF was 60.54 million yuan, with a total of 281 million yuan net inflow over four out of the last five trading days [3] - As of October 20, the software ETF's net value has risen by 14.41% over the past three years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 39.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being three months and a maximum increase of 69.40% [3] - The average return during the months of increase was 10.06% [3] Group 2: Industry Insights and Opportunities - The current external environment has increased policy risks and uncertainties, highlighting the urgency for China's technological self-reliance, which may accelerate the domestic substitution process [4] - From January to August 2025, China's software business revenue grew by 12.6%, indicating steady industry growth [4] - Policy initiatives are pushing for the establishment of a unified AI model service platform in the government sector, promoting resource consolidation [4] - In the domestic innovation sector, focus is recommended on competitive segments such as basic hardware, basic software (databases, operating systems, middleware), and application software [4] - In the industrial software sector, attention should be directed towards core areas such as product design, production control, and business management, including EDA, CAD, CAE, and CAM [4] - Investors can consider the software ETF linked fund (012620) to capitalize on AI software investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The current domestic industrial software localization rate shows significant differentiation, with management software at 70%, manufacturing software over 50%, but high-end software like EDA and CAD having localization rates in single digits [1] - The operating system market is still dominated by Android, Windows, and iOS, with low localization rates; database penetration in government systems exceeds 80%, but is below 5% in medical scenarios [1] - WPS holds over 90% market share in the trusted computing market for office software, while ERP localization is at 38% and CRM at 60% [1] Group 2 - The Computer ETF (512720) tracks the CS Computer Index (930651), which selects listed companies involved in computer hardware, software, and services from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering key segments of the information technology industry chain [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the computer industry, characterized by high technological content and growth potential [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. export controls on "critical software" will stimulate the development of domestic software in China, with a focus on basic software, industrial software, and office software [1] - The U.S. plans to implement export controls on "critical software" starting November 1, which includes electronic design automation, industrial software, and basic software, potentially disrupting Chinese companies that rely on U.S. software [1][2] - Domestic software has accumulated the capability to replace U.S. software due to advancements in technology, policy, market, and ecosystem, which will accelerate the localization process of software in China [1] Group 2 - The U.S. emphasis on software supply chain security includes critical software categories such as basic software and industrial software, as outlined in a memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget [2] - The initial phase of the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) guidelines will focus on independent, internally deployed software that performs security-critical functions [2] - Other software categories like industrial software, office software, and databases are also deemed crucial for software supply chain security and should be considered as critical software [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced new export controls on certain foreign rare earth-related items, with military-use exports generally not permitted and advanced semiconductor applications requiring case-by-case approval [3] - The announcement included changes such as the use of WPS format for attachments and the requirement for application documents to be submitted in Chinese [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volume-reduced rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, and over 4300 stocks closing in the green. The total trading volume was 2.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 503.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.36% [1][2]. Positive Market Drivers - Three major positive factors for the A-share market were identified: 1. High-level officials emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and effective use of policy resources to stimulate domestic demand and enhance the domestic circulation [2]. 2. The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a focus on maintaining ample market liquidity amid external volatility. A new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts is anticipated in the fourth quarter [2]. 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that balance sheet reduction may end in the coming months, with market expectations for a potential interest rate cut during the upcoming Fed meeting [2]. Sector Performance - **Innovation Drug Sector**: The pharmaceutical sector saw a collective rebound, led by innovative drugs, with several stocks hitting the daily limit. Catalysts included an upcoming European oncology conference and strong performance expectations for innovative drugs [4]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector showed strength, particularly in beauty, retail, and food and beverage, with notable stocks achieving consecutive gains. The emphasis on expanding domestic demand was a key driver [5]. - **Domestic Software Sector**: The domestic software and software development sectors gained traction, with several stocks reaching the daily limit. The focus on self-sufficiency in key software amid global tech competition was highlighted [6]. Analyst Insights - **Oriental Securities**: The firm noted that while external frictions are rising, overall risks remain manageable. They recommend focusing on relatively low-positioned sectors such as pharmaceuticals, software, new energy, and the internet for potential gains [3][7]. - **Zheshang Securities**: The firm observed a shift in market focus towards large financials and cyclical stocks, suggesting a strategic long-term bullish outlook despite external shocks [8]. - **Huatai Securities**: The firm indicated that market concerns persist, with potential volatility due to ongoing tariff uncertainties. They expect the market to adjust through oscillation as it digests pressure [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [10] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of US-China trade tensions is expected to benefit domestic software, particularly in the foundational software sector, as the US imposes new tariffs and export controls on key software [2] - The introduction of the first policy document for large models in the government sector is expected to heat up the AI bidding market, with significant budgets allocated for various AI projects [3] - Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in embodied intelligence, indicating a global competition in robotics and AI applications [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the past week (October 6-12), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 3.86%. The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.51%, and the computer sector index (Shenwan) dropped by 1.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.20 percentage points and outperforming the ChiNext by 2.03 percentage points [1] Policy Developments - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines for the deployment and application of AI large models in government sectors, providing a framework for various applications [3] Industry Trends - The bidding market for AI large models in government is gaining momentum, with notable procurement announcements and significant budget allocations for projects in cities like Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Beijing [3] - Tech giants like Alibaba and companies like Sais and Volcano Engine are forming partnerships to advance embodied intelligence technologies, indicating a shift towards practical applications in the physical world [4] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include those in computing power such as Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, and Cambrian; in AIDC such as Kehua Data and Yunsai Zhili; and in AI applications like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek [10]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower but rebounded strongly, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index rising by 1% [1] - The domestic software concept gained momentum, with Kingsoft Office increasing by over 10%, contributing to a 0.55% rise in the Southern Computer ETF (159586), which has expanded its year-to-date gain to 22% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement on October 9 changed the format of official documents to WPS, indicating a shift towards domestic software adoption in government systems [1] Group 2 - The Southern Computer ETF (159586) tracks the CSI All-Share Computer Index, covering leading companies in hardware, software, and internet services, with a latest scale of 424 million yuan and a year-to-date increase in fund shares by 294% [1] - Western Securities noted that the U.S. export controls on key software create a golden opportunity for domestic software to replace imports and accelerate the self-sufficiency of the entire industry chain [1] - The focus is on opportunities in domestic operating systems, industrial software, databases, and office software as potential replacements [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. plans to impose export controls on "critical software," which includes both foundational and industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in the ongoing U.S.-China technological competition [9]. - The domestic market for industrial design software is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential U.S. export restrictions, with significant growth opportunities identified in this area [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that while industrial design software has a low localization rate, the industrial control systems have a relatively higher domestic market share, particularly in DCS systems [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that if the U.S. imposes export controls on foundational software, it will significantly boost the localization of industrial and foundational software. Key investment targets include: - Industrial Software: Zhongwang Software (688083, Buy), Huada Jiutian (301269, Buy), and others [3]. - Foundational Software: Dameng Data (688692, Not Rated), Dongtu Technology (300353, Not Rated), and others [3]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of critical software, which includes operating systems and databases, and notes that the domestic market share for PC operating systems has reached 20-25%, while server operating systems are at 40-50% [9]. - The report highlights that the localization rate for industrial operating systems is still low, at around 10-15%, but is expected to improve as domestic products gain traction [9].

Core Insights - The relational database industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes digital development and the construction of a digital China [1][8] - The market size of China's relational database industry is projected to reach 29.98 billion yuan (approximately 4.21 billion USD) in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [8][10] - The public cloud has become the primary deployment method for relational databases, with the public cloud relational database market expected to reach 19.51 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 65.1% of the market share [10][18] Market Overview - The overall database market in China is expected to reach 59.616 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 14% year-on-year [6][8] - The domestic relational database market is characterized by a diverse range of participants, including traditional vendors, startups, cloud providers, and cross-industry players, leading to intense competition [18][19] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five players in the public cloud relational database market expected to hold nearly 85% of the market share by the second half of 2024 [18][19] Product Landscape - As of June 2025, there are 164 database products in China, with 96 being relational databases, representing 58.5% of the total [12][14] - The global database product landscape shows a predominance of non-relational and hybrid databases, while China maintains a focus on relational databases [12][14] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the public cloud relational database market include Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, which dominate the market [18][19] - In the on-premises relational database market, local companies like Huawei, Dameng, and Tencent compete with international firms such as Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP [18][19] Technological Trends - The relational database market in China is expected to exceed 75 billion yuan by 2029, driven by software localization, rapid AI application development, and the growth of the digital economy [21] - Key technological trends include the deepening of cloud-native databases and the integration of vector engines and multimodal data management [21]