本文字数：1826，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈姗姗 2025年年末，多家国内上市航司陆续发布公告，都与跟空中客车公司签订新的飞机大单有关。 2025.12.31 两天内，包括春秋航空，吉祥航空，中国国航，华夏航空以及中飞租赁在内的5家公司，分别与空客签 订飞机购置协议，总计购买148架空客A320系列飞机。 两天拿下148架飞机大单 根据中国国航今日发布的公告，公司及全资子公司国航进出口有限公司与空客公司签订飞机购置协议， 向后者购买60架空客A320neo系列飞机本次采购飞机计划于2028年至2032年分批交付，目录价格合计约 为95.3亿美元，包括机身、附加部件及引擎的价格。 华夏航空在同日发布公告，称向空客订购3架A320系列飞机，经国家批准认可后，将自2030年起的三年 内完成交付。 前一天，春秋航空和吉祥航空率先发布公告，分别向空客购买30架及25架空客A320neo系列飞机，经国 家批准认可后，将于2028年至2032年向公司交付。其中春秋航空的30架飞机目录总价不超过41.28亿美 元，吉祥航空的25架飞机目录价格约41亿美元。 此外，中飞租赁公司也与空客签署协议，订购30架A32 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic airlines in China have signed significant aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, totaling 148 A320 series aircraft, indicating a strong demand for narrow-body planes despite current market challenges [3][8]. Group 1: Aircraft Orders - China National Airlines and its subsidiary signed an agreement to purchase 60 A320neo aircraft, with a total list price of approximately $9.53 billion, scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2032 [5]. - Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines announced orders for 30 and 25 A320neo aircraft, respectively, with total prices of up to $4.128 billion and approximately $4.1 billion, to be delivered from 2028 to 2032 [6]. - China Aircraft Leasing Company ordered 30 A320neo aircraft, with deliveries planned before 2033 [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Airbus has secured a total of 148 aircraft orders from China in a short period, reflecting a growing trend of large orders from Chinese airlines [8]. - By 2025, Airbus is expected to hold a market share of over 55% in China, making it the largest single-country market for the company [9]. - The global second-largest aircraft leasing company, Avolon, indicated that popular aircraft models like the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo are sold out by 2030, highlighting strong demand [9]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The recent aircraft orders may be a strategic move to secure aircraft availability and mitigate operational challenges caused by engine shortages, which have led to increased grounded aircraft [11]. - The International Air Transport Association reported that over 5,000 aircraft are currently grounded, the highest level in history, exacerbated by supply chain issues due to U.S.-China trade tensions [11]. - Despite the current overcapacity in the domestic market, the introduction of new aircraft is slowing, with the fleet size growing at a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2019 to 2025 [12]. Group 4: Aircraft Type Trends - The introduction of wide-body aircraft has nearly stagnated, with only a net increase of 4 aircraft from 2019 to 2025, primarily due to slow recovery in international routes [13]. - The domestic market is seeing a shift towards narrow-body aircraft, with significant increases in new models like the A320neo and B737 MAX, while older models are being phased out [12][13]. - The share of domestic aircraft in the fleet has increased from 1.3% in 2019 to 4.5%, indicating a growing presence of domestic manufacturers in the narrow-body market [13].

年末空客收获的飞机大单均为窄体飞机，国产飞机也在抢占一定的窄体机市场。 2025年年末，多家国内上市航司陆续发布公告，都与跟空中客车公司签订新的飞机大单有关。 两天内，包括春秋航空，吉祥航空，中国国航，华夏航空以及中飞租赁在内的5家公司，分别与空客签订飞机购置协议，总计购买148架空客A320系列飞 机。 两天拿下148架飞机大单 根据中国国航今日发布的公告，公司及全资子公司国航进出口有限公司与空客公司签订飞机购置协议，向后者购买60架空客A320neo系列飞机本次采购飞机 计划于2028年至2032年分批交付，目录价格合计约为95.3亿美元，包括机身、附加部件及引擎的价格。 华夏航空在同日发布公告，称向空客订购3架A320系列飞机，经国家批准认可后，将自2030年起的三年内完成交付。 前一天，春秋航空和吉祥航空率先发布公告，分别向空客购买30架及25架空客A320neo系列飞机，经国家批准认可后，将于2028年至2032年向公司交付。其 中春秋航空的30架飞机目录总价不超过41.28亿美元，吉祥航空的25架飞机目录价格约41亿美元。 此外，中飞租赁公司也与空客签署协议，订购30架A320neo系列飞机，计划 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,624.4 | -7.6 | -0.47% | 122.0 | -68.72% | 2,143.0 | -3.38% | | EC2602 | 1,668.6 | -31.2 | -1.84% | 27,023.0 | 11.67% | 31,643.0 | -1.03% | | EC2604 | 1,108.8 | -15.3 | -1.36% | 3,742.0 | -18.39% | 18,692.0 | -1.93% | | EC2606 | 1,270.5 | -13.2 | -1.03% | 193.0 | -1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic fluctuations in the domestic commodity futures market, particularly the container shipping index (European line), reflect significant changes and uncertainties in the global shipping industry, driven by market sentiment, supply-demand imbalances, and geopolitical risks [1][4][17]. Market Fluctuations - The container shipping index (European line) experienced a remarkable reversal, rising over 6% after a nearly 8% drop the previous day, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][4]. - The trading volume showed a reduction, with over 2,800 contracts being closed on the main contract, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4]. Shipping Market Dynamics - The global container shipping market is undergoing a profound transformation, highlighted by the split between Maersk and MSC, leading to a new "3+1" alliance structure that affects route planning, capacity allocation, and pricing strategies [6][7]. - The total capacity of the global container fleet has surpassed 33 million TEU for the first time, with an expected growth of 4.5% this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [7][9]. Trade Imbalances - The trade imbalance has worsened, with North America's container imports nearly quadrupling its exports, increasing the imbalance ratio from 40-50% pre-pandemic to about 60% this year, raising operational costs and complexities [9]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Red Sea has become a critical factor affecting European line freight rates, with recent attacks reigniting concerns and leading to increased operational costs for shipping companies [10][12]. - The geopolitical risks have forced ships to reroute, significantly increasing fuel costs and operational pressures, with predictions that these measures may continue into mid-next year [12]. Seasonal and Economic Factors - The year-end period, typically crucial for shipping companies to maintain prices, is showing signs of a "weak peak season" due to delayed shipments and overall weak global trade demand [13][15]. - Economic challenges in Europe, including high inflation and energy crises, are suppressing consumer demand, while U.S. tariff policies are adding pressure to global trade [15]. Future Outlook - Short-term market recovery is possible, with seasonal demand expected to rise, but long-term forecasts remain pessimistic, predicting a 45% drop in container shipping profits this year and a further 61% decline next year [15][17]. - If the Red Sea routes normalize by mid-next year, spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to Europe could fall to between $1,500 and $2,000 per container [15]. Conclusion - The volatility in the European line futures market mirrors the complexities of the global trade landscape, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal factors, indicating a shift towards a new normal in the container shipping market [17].

Core Viewpoint - After three consecutive weeks of decline, China's export container shipping market has recently seen a slight increase of 0.7% in freight rates, with varying trends across different routes [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates on different routes have shown a mixed performance, with significant rebounds on the South America route and a recovery on the East America route, while the West America route continues to decline [1] - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced a price increase for the Europe-Asia route, with a uniform freight rate of $2,975 per TEU for the first half of December, rising to $3,375 per TEU in the second half, marking a $400 increase for 20-foot containers [2] - As of November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean ports was $2,232 per TEU, reflecting an 8.6% increase [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seasonal Factors - The end of November typically marks the beginning of a concentrated shipping period in Europe and the Mediterranean, driven by contract fulfillments and pre-arranged shipments for the Spring Festival [5] - The shipping volume on European routes is currently insufficient to support higher rates, leading some shipowners to offer discounted rates [5] - An increase in booking volumes is expected from late December, particularly on the Mediterranean route, due to previous capacity shortages and cargo backlogs [6] Group 3: Suez Canal and Capacity Concerns - Discussions are ongoing regarding the resumption of services through the Suez Canal, which could lead to an oversupply of capacity and downward pressure on freight rates [7] - The Suez Canal is expected to fully restore shipping volumes and revenue by 2026, with strategic agreements already in place between the Suez Canal Authority and major shipping companies [7][9] - The potential return to Suez Canal routes could result in an oversupply of approximately 1.5 million TEU, necessitating careful capacity management by shipping companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is expected to enter a downward cycle due to a significant delivery of new ships from 2026 to 2028 and a lack of growth in global trade demand, compounded by geopolitical factors that may affect shipping routes [6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main driver of the shipping industry's cyclical nature is the balance between demand surges and supply contractions, leading to periods of prosperity followed by downturns as new ship orders flood the market [7]. - The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have contributed to a decline in global demand, marking the beginning of a downward cycle for the shipping industry after the highs of 2020-2021 [7][8]. - The anticipated delivery of new ships from 2023 to 2028 is projected to create a significant oversupply, with delivery volumes peaking at 3.88 million TEU in 2028, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - According to Linerlytica, the projected delivery capacities from 2023 to 2028 are 2.3 million TEU, 2.95 million TEU, 2.25 million TEU, 1.48 million TEU, 3.13 million TEU, and 3.88 million TEU, indicating a growing supply pressure in the latter years [8]. - The average age of ships being scrapped has increased to 29 years since 2021, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 20-25 years, indicating reluctance among shipowners to retire older vessels despite high profits [8][9]. - The expected growth rate of throughput volume is around 2% from 2026 to 2028, while fleet size is projected to grow by up to 10%, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand [8][9]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Projections - Sea Intelligence's analysis suggests that the peak of excess capacity will occur in 2027, with the overcapacity levels being higher than in 2023 but lower than in 2009 [9][14]. - The comparison of two methods for estimating supply-demand dynamics indicates that the excess capacity in 2027-2028 may be less severe than in 2023, but still significant enough to suggest a potential decline in global shipping rates by approximately 300 points [15]. - The concentration ratio (CR10) in the global shipping industry has increased from less than 60% before 2008 to 84% in 2024, indicating that shipping companies have gained more control over freight rates despite the impending downturn [16].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to see a significant slowdown in import volumes during the traditional holiday shopping season, with predictions of declines in container imports for November and December compared to the previous year [1][2]. Import Volume Trends - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a decline of 14.4% and 17.9% in container imports for November and December, respectively [1]. - Vizion's real-time monitoring indicates a projected year-on-year drop of approximately 16.6% in December imports [1]. - C.H. Robinson predicts container import declines of 19.7% and 20.1% for the last two months of the year [1]. Demand and Economic Outlook - There are concerns about the weak demand in the U.S. market, with specific categories like furniture and toys showing significant declines in imports [1][2]. - The CEO of Vizion expressed deep concerns about the future of U.S. goods trade, suggesting that low demand has become the "new normal" in the freight market [1]. - The DAT's truck freight volume index indicates a simultaneous decline in rates for various truck types, reflecting the overall state of the goods economy [2]. Inventory and Supply Chain Adjustments - Many North American retailers have adjusted their ordering and inventory strategies, completing orders earlier to avoid congestion during peak seasons [3]. - The Port of Los Angeles reported a 6.3% year-on-year decrease in container volume for October, with expectations of further declines in November and December [3]. Capacity and Pricing Outlook - Container utilization rates have dropped from 100% to 91%, with a forecast of 2.19 million TEUs arriving in December 2025, down from 2.62 million TEUs the previous year [4]. - There are warnings of a potential long-term oversupply in shipping capacity, which could lead to significant adjustments in the freight market [5]. - Despite the current challenges, C.H. Robinson noted that shipping rates remain relatively high due to careful capacity management by shipping companies [5]. Future Projections - The Port of Long Beach's CEO anticipates a slight increase in imports before the Lunar New Year in February, but acknowledges the uncertainty in economic data [6]. - Overall, there is an expectation for container volumes to approach last year's record of 9.6 million TEUs, with moderate growth projected for 2026 depending on economic performance and tariff policies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Major international shipping companies have reported an increase in cargo volume but a decrease in profits for the third quarter, leading to adjustments in future performance expectations across the industry [1][5]. Financial Performance - Maersk Group reported third-quarter revenue of $14.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, with net profit down over 60% [3]. - CMA CGM Group's revenue for the third quarter was $14.04 billion, with a net profit decline of 72.6% compared to the previous year [3]. - COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) saw a 20.42% year-on-year decline in revenue for the third quarter, with net profit down 55.14% [4]. - Hapag-Lloyd reported a revenue of $5.43 billion for the third quarter, with a significant net profit drop of 85.5% to $160 million [4]. Cargo Volume and Market Dynamics - Despite profit declines, shipping companies experienced growth in cargo volumes, with Maersk reporting a 7% increase in loading volume and a stable capacity utilization rate of 94% [4]. - Hapag-Lloyd's transport volume increased by 9.1% in the first three quarters, while COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a 6.01% increase in container shipping volume [4]. Reasons for Profit Decline - The primary reasons for profit shrinkage are attributed to falling freight rates and rising cost pressures, including fuel, labor, and port fees [4]. - The shipping market's supply-demand dynamics have led to a decrease in market freight rates, impacting operational efficiency [4]. Industry Outlook - Shipping companies are adopting a cautious outlook and adjusting their performance targets, with Maersk revising its 2025 financial guidance to reflect an expected global container market growth rate of approximately 4% [5]. - Hapag-Lloyd has lowered its profit forecast for 2025, indicating a shift in focus from "price determines revenue" to "efficiency determines revenue" due to anticipated capacity increases and weakening market demand [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]