市场风险加剧叠加投资避险情绪高涨 近期，受美国政府"停摆"危机发酵、市场对美联储未来多次降息预期增强，以及全球地缘冲突不断等因素的影响，投资 者纷纷增持黄金以避险，贵金属价格持续攀升。10月7日，COMEX黄金期货价格突破4000美元／盎司，续创历史新 高。 短期内，美国政府"停摆"危机持续，非农就业、CPI等重磅报告推迟发布，这使市场判断美国经济走向和美联储政策路 径的难度显著增大，市场风险加剧，投资避险情绪高涨。此外，美国经济不确定性增加，美联储降息预期升温，实际利 率趋于下行。在宏观经济增速放缓、货币政策宽松以及地缘局势等因素的支撑下，贵金属市场长期内或维持偏强走势。 图为美国CPI和核心CPI当月同比（单位：%） 图为美元指数与黄金价格走势（单位：点、美元／盎司） 图为美国联邦基金有效利率 图为全球黄金季度需求变化（单位：吨） 美国政府"停摆"推升政治风险 当地时间10月1日零时，因美国共和、民主两党未能就短期政府拨款议案达成共识，美国政府正式开始"停摆"。这是 2019年1月以来，美国政府首次出现"停摆"情况，同时也是美国总统特朗普在其两次任期内第四次遭遇政府"停摆"。 在当天下午的投票中，共和党提 ...

并非所有投资黄金的人都会购买实物贵金属。一些投资者将资金投入到以黄金为支撑的金融产品中，例如交易所交易基金（ETF）。据世 界黄金协会称，今年迄今为止，黄金ETF的投资额已达到创纪录的640亿美元。 由于担心全球经济和政治不确定性，投资者纷纷寻求安全的投资场所，金价已创下每盎司逾4000美元（2985英镑）的历史新高。自今年4月 美国总统特朗普宣布加征关税扰乱全球贸易以来，金价已上涨约三分之一，创下上世纪70年代以来的最大涨幅。分析师表示，另一个令投 资者担忧的问题是，随着美国政府关门进入第二周，关键经济数据的发布被推迟。黄金被视为所谓的避险投资，预计在市场动荡或经济低 迷时期，其价值将得以保值或升值。亚洲时段的周三下午，现货黄金价格升至每盎司逾4036美元。作为市场情绪指标的黄金期货价格在10 月7日也达到了同样的水平。 在以往的美国政府关门期间，投资者纷纷转向黄金等避险资产。在特朗普第一任期内长达一个月的政府关门期间，金价上涨了近4%。但如 果政府关门结束的速度快于一些投资者的预期，金价可能会下跌。 尽管当前金价飙升是由短期不确定性引发的，但黄金整体走强很大程度上是由于各国央行出于规避美国国债和过度依赖美 ...

换资前言： 牛市不言顶！最近粉丝关注最多的问题就是，老师金价会涨到哪里？目前已经突破4000关口，盲目猜顶 不可取，周线级别7连阳，试问你错过多少次上车机会？我还是那句话：强势不言顶不是口号，是扎扎 实实的趋势。现在一堆人纠结"价格太高""该回调了"不妨看看隔壁虚拟币，我反复说过：别盯着数字 看，要看格局！牛市的本质是"蓄谋已久的宣泄"，不杀透不会停；就算回头，也不是某一根K线的事， 是多重因素慢慢发酵后，市场才会软下来。 策略一：黄金早盘4025-4030附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损8个点，目标4000-3990附近， 破位看3985一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实施布局建议在钉钉实盘学员内部公布） 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(10月8日)亚市盘中，黄金价格一举突破4000美元创下历史新高，主要受投资者在不断加剧的经济 和地缘政治不确定性中寻求避险，以及对美联储进一步降息的预期推动。截至发稿，现货金上涨 0.62%，至4,014.53美元。与此同时，12月交割的美国黄金期货上涨0.5%，至4,030美元。对于两年前还 低于2,000美元的黄金来说，这是一个里程碑 ...

【导读】黄金大跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，刚刚创下新高的黄金，突然大跳水了。 周一，国会两院领袖与特朗普的会面未能就政府的短期融资达成协议。这加剧了对政府关门 的担忧，而关门可能会阻碍经济数据的发布——使投资者无法获得评估美国经济所需的关键 信息。 各国央行的购金需求以及美联储恢复降息也为金价提供了支撑。高盛集团和德意志银行认为 金价仍有进一步上涨空间。 瑞银周二在一份报告中称，对黄金市场目前倾向于看涨情景，预计到2026年年中金价将升至 每盎司4200美元。该行指出，美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价 构成利好，同时建议黄金在投资组合中的配置比例为5％左右。瑞银强调，黄金与股票和债券 的关联度较低，可作为对冲通胀和地缘政治风险的工具，同时提醒投资者考虑与价格波动和 美国货币政策可能转变相关的风险。 编辑：赵新亮 校对：纪元 审核：陈思扬 9月30日A股收盘之后，现货黄金价格大幅跳水，早盘 受美国政府停摆担忧推动， 一度大涨 超1%，创下3871美元/盎司的新高，截至发稿，黄金价格跌约0.8%，回 落至每盎司约3800 美元。 现货白银的价格也同步下跌。 萨克索银行商品策略师奥勒 ...

打开行情软件吓一跳，黄金直接飙到3749美元、盎司的历史新高，白银也冲到44美元附近，眼看就要摸 14年高点，这俩真是妥妥的比翼齐飞！ 到底是谁在推？美联储降息的风声没停，避险的钱、跟风投资的钱又一个劲往贵金属里扎。 但疑问也来了，白银离1980年那48.7美元的历史顶就差口气，能冲过去吗？这波狂潮会不会把铜铝也卷 进来？ 今早打开理财APP，我眼珠子都快掉出来了，黄金又双叒叕创新高了！3749.27美元/盎司，这数字在亚 太交易时段一闪现，朋友圈里讨论金饰、黄金ETF的消息直接刷了屏。 现在这世界，地缘局势紧张，经济前景雾蒙蒙的，黄金这玩意儿不跟任何国家信用挂钩，揣在手里比啥 都踏实。就像分析师说的，这种需求是刻在骨子里的，一时半会儿凉不了。 更让人咋舌的是白银，连着涨了三天，都快摸到44美元/盎司了，这可是近14年来的最高位，大家都在 猜，它能冲破1980年那48.70美元的历史峰值吗？ 这波涨势简直像坐火箭！要说最直接的推手，那绝对是美联储的降息预期。鲍威尔嘴上说着谨慎，可市 场早就把降息两个字刻在了心上。 你想啊，钱存银行的利息越来越不划算，持有黄金的成本就低了，大家能不疯抢吗？上周美联储刚降了 25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, has attracted significant investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices increased by 2.03% in the night trading session on September 22, 2025, breaking key resistance levels, leading to a strong opening for gold-related stocks, with many rising over 7% [1]. - The decline of the US dollar, which has fallen approximately 5% in recent months, has made gold cheaper for investors using other currencies, further boosting demand [4]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased gold purchases, with net purchases exceeding 800 tons in 2024, marking a historical high, primarily driven by emerging market central banks [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Various methods for investing in gold exist, each with unique advantages and risks, including physical gold, gold ETFs, paper gold, and gold mining stocks [4]. - Convertible bonds linked to gold stocks are highlighted as a favorable option, allowing investors to benefit from stock price increases while enjoying T+0 trading mechanisms [5]. - Gold ETFs, such as the one tracking Shanghai gold spot prices, have shown a cumulative increase of 34.61% since the beginning of the year, with low management fees [5]. Group 3: Risk Management - The market is currently showing overbought signals, indicating potential for price corrections, and investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid chasing prices [6]. - A survey indicates that 71% of central banks plan to maintain or reduce their gold holdings, which could weaken demand and impact gold prices [6]. - Investors are encouraged to set clear stop-loss points and target profit levels, maintaining discipline in their investment strategies [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The early trading session showed a strong market sentiment with gold-related stocks initially rising over 7% but later retracting to around 4%, signaling caution against blind chasing of prices [8]. - The market is experiencing increased differentiation, and investors are advised to focus on high liquidity products while controlling their positions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market has entered a historic phase with gold jewelry prices surpassing 1100 yuan per gram, indicating a significant price increase and a new era for gold pricing in China [1][3]. Group 1: International Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have shown strong performance, with London spot gold reaching over 3752 USD per ounce and COMEX futures hitting a historical high of 3795 USD per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 42% [3][9]. - Since August 20, the spot gold price has risen by more than 12%, and from January 2023 to April 2025, the price surged from 1800 USD to 3370 USD, an increase of 87% [3][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - The surge in gold prices has led to a collective rise in gold-related stocks, with significant gains observed in both US and A-share markets [4][5][6]. - In the US market, companies like IGO Mining and Barrick Gold saw increases of over 3%, while in the A-share market, Shengda Resources hit the daily limit, and several other companies experienced gains exceeding 8% [5][6]. Group 3: Consumption vs. Investment Trends - Despite the rising gold prices, the retail market for gold and jewelry has shown signs of weakness, with a reported 20% decrease in retail value for Chow Tai Fook compared to the previous year [7]. - Conversely, the consumption of gold bars and coins increased by 46.02% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards investment rather than consumption [7]. Group 4: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been a key driver of rising gold prices, with expectations of further rate reductions in the coming months [9][11]. - Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with various global events contributing to this trend [10][11]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Several investment banks have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, with JPMorgan predicting prices could reach 3800 USD per ounce by Q4 2025 and exceed 4000 USD in Q1 2026 [12][15]. - Goldman Sachs also maintains a target of 3700 USD by the end of 2025, with potential for prices to rise above 4500 USD under certain risk scenarios [15].

Group 1 - The spot gold price has reached a new historical high of over $3560 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 35% [1] - Gold stocks in the US market have seen significant gains, with Harmony Gold rising over 5% and AngloGold up over 3% [1] - The gold sector in the A-share market has also experienced a surge, with the Shenwan gold sector achieving an average increase of 11.35% since September [3] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry brands have reported continued price increases, with prices for 24K gold jewelry reaching 1053 CNY per gram for brands like Chow Tai Fook and 1056 CNY per gram for Chow Sang Sang [3][4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts, effective from September 5, 2025 [5] - Analysts indicate that global market conditions are creating a surge in risk aversion, with precious metals becoming a core investment target for risk-averse capital [6]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has reached a new historical high of over $3560 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 35% [1] - Gold stocks in the U.S. market have opened higher, with Harmony Gold rising over 5% and AngloGold up over 3% [1] - The gold sector in the A-share market has seen an average increase of 11.35% since September, with Western Gold experiencing a "three consecutive boards" trend, significantly outperforming other gold stocks [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry brands have reported a continued increase in the price of domestic gold jewelry, with prices for 24K gold jewelry reaching 1053 CNY per gram for brands like Chow Tai Fook and 1056 CNY per gram for Chow Sang Sang [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver contracts, with margin levels for various gold contracts increasing from 13% to 14% and for silver contracts from 16% to 17% [4] Group 3 - Global market conditions are creating a storm, with rising risk aversion leading to increased investment in precious metals as a safe haven, and technical indicators suggesting a bullish outlook for gold, potentially targeting $3800 if it breaks through $3600 [6] - Silver is expected to follow suit with a potential rally, likely challenging previous highs [6]

| 册 上海黄金玉乡呼 | | | | 1 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS | Ｑ 请输入关键字,搜栏目 / 行情资讯 / 公告 / 规则 ○ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 首页 | 关于上金所 | 新闻中心 | 产品服务 | 数据资讯 | 会员专区 投资者服务 制度与规则 | | | | | | | Company Company - The Carrer - The Bearing Company of the Comments of the Comments of the Comments of the comments of the comments of the contraction of the contribution of t | | | | 交易所公告 | | | | | | ↑ 首页 > 交易所公告 | 近期，黄金、白银等贵金属价格连续上涨，市场波动加大。面对这一新变化，上海黄金交易所（下称"上金所"）出手了。 9月3日，上金所发布公告，对黄金延期品种与白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。具 ...