机械设备 2025 年 10 月 13 日 型及 版史 行业 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 苏萌 A0230122080001 sumenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 金属涨价驱动设备需求增加， 矿山机械及相关拥有矿山资 矿山机械行业点评 投资机点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 有色金属价格上行,有望带动设备资本开支增加。价格是设备投资的"指挥棒",当终 ● 端金属价格上涨，矿企利润增加，设备采购的意愿会变强，设备需求随着价格上涨幅度 的增加而增加，一开始通过延长开采时间、增加开采工作面来扩大产量，车辆、耗材类 及维保服务需求先增加,当价格进一步上涨,新 ...

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant price increases, particularly in copper and gold, leading to stock price surges for major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a 20% cumulative deviation in stock price over three trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity, but confirmed that there are no significant changes in its operational environment [1] - Jiangxi Copper also noted a 20% cumulative deviation in stock price, with its production activities remaining normal [2] - In the first half of the year, Tongling Nonferrous Metals achieved a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.441 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The prices of key products, including cathode copper and gold, have seen substantial increases recently, contributing to the stock price movements of the companies [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, Jiangxi Copper's net profit reached 4.175 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.42% [3] - International gold prices have recently surpassed 4,000 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as U.S. government shutdown concerns, expectations of interest rate cuts, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [3]

截至发稿，铜价维持在每吨 9994 美元的水平，变化不大。其他大多数金属价格均有所上涨，其中铝价 上涨了 0.3%。与此同时，在新加坡，铁矿石价格上涨 0.4%，至每吨 106.95 美元。 据当地的一则报道，麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)格拉斯伯格矿场的两名工人遗体已被找到。与此同时，在 9 月 8 日的一次泥石流事故后，仍有另外五名工人下落不明，搜寻工作仍在进行中。 最新的报告表明，该矿场可能会出现长时间的停产，这可能会迅速导致市场供应紧张，从而加剧今年一 直存在的供应短缺状况，进而推高价格。这种金属的市场需求总体上保持稳定，花旗分析师上周表示， 价格可能会在 2025 年之前谨慎地维持在某个水平，之后才会出现更强劲的上涨趋势，达到每吨 12000 美元的水平。 智通财经APP获悉，铜价较前一交易日有所上涨，因为交易员们正在评估印尼一起事故对全球供应量的 影响，该事故导致全球第二大铜矿停产两周。周一，在伦敦金属交易所，铜金属价格涨至每吨 10,000 美元以上，随后有所回落。 ...

人民财讯9月16日电，中信建投（601066）研报表示，美国8月通胀较强，符合市场预期，9月及年内多 次降息预期再次强化，铜金等金属也持续上涨，LME铜价达10064.5美元/吨，SHFE铜价上涨1.4%，钴 价也因库存与刚果(金)政策因素上升，持续看好持有矿产的建筑企业。 ...

Industry Overview - The economics of metals mining are cyclical, with margins affected by commodity prices, as operational costs remain constant regardless of price fluctuations [1] - A rise in commodity prices can significantly expand margins for mining companies [1] Market Sentiment - Gold and silver have reached new 52-week highs, leading to increased profitability and positive market sentiment towards mining stocks [2] - The current metals rally presents potential investment opportunities in the mining sector [3] Investment Vehicles - For investors hesitant to buy physical gold, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are recommended as convenient ways to track gold performance [3] - GLD has a larger market capitalization of approximately $111.92 billion, attracting significant institutional participation, with $2.8 billion in institutional buying last quarter [6][7] - IAU, with assets under management of about $52.20 billion, offers a lower expense ratio of 0.25%, making it attractive for long-term investors [9][10] Company Spotlight: Hecla Mining - Hecla Mining has experienced a 47.7% rally in stock price over the past month, driven by rising gold and silver prices [12][13] - Analysts have adjusted their ratings, with a consensus Hold rating valuing the stock at $7.4 per share, indicating a potential downside of 16.6% [14] - Some analysts, like Heiko Ihle from HC Wainwright, have a Buy rating with a target price of $12.5 per share, suggesting a possible 42% upside from current levels [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong production performance across various segments, despite a decline in revenue [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.671 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [3]. - The adjusted net profit was 8.724 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.08% [3]. Group 2: Production Achievements - The company exceeded production targets for all product lines in the first half of the year, with copper production reaching 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68% [4]. - Cobalt production was reported at 61,100 tons, up about 13.05% year-on-year [4]. - Other products such as molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate fertilizer also surpassed 50% of their annual targets [4]. Group 3: Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the average spot price of copper on the London Metal Exchange was $9,431 per ton, an increase of 3.75% year-on-year [5]. - The average price of cobalt rose to $13.16 per pound, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.69% [5]. - Prices for ammonium paratungstate (APT) and monoammonium phosphate also saw significant increases, with APT up 12.39% and monoammonium phosphate up 18.6% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Prospects - The company is preparing for a new round of expansion projects at its two main copper and cobalt mines, TFM and KFM, which have established significant production capacities [6]. - TFM has an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM has a capacity of over 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt [6]. - The company's five-year plan aims to achieve annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper and 90,000 to 100,000 tons of cobalt by 2028 [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The outlook for copper prices remains positive, supported by macroeconomic factors and expected improvements in domestic demand post-summer [7]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and the anticipated end of inventory accumulation due to previous tariffs are expected to bolster copper prices [7]. - The company expects a recovery in demand for copper in Q4, driven by increased needs in power grids and air conditioning [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, citing expected increases in copper and other rare metal prices, which will drive a 38% growth in recurring profits for the year [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares has been increased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's A-shares has been raised from CNY 11.5 to CNY 13 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of CNY 8.67 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit was CNY 8.62 billion, a year-on-year growth of 52%, which exceeded market expectations but was 8% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher-than-expected sales costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company exceeded production targets in the first half of 2025, leading to better-than-expected financial performance. Revenue reached 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% [1][2]. - The company achieved production targets across all product lines, with copper production at 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, and cobalt production at 61,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.05% [2]. - The company is optimistic about future copper prices due to macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, expecting a price increase in the coming months [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 8.724 billion yuan, up 55.08% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has adjusted its full-year production expectations upward due to strong performance in the first half and rising prices for tungsten and molybdenum [4]. Production and Pricing - The company’s copper and cobalt mines, TFM and KFM, are set for expansion, with TFM achieving an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, and KFM with a capacity of over 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt [3]. - Prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, ammonium paratungstate, and monoammonium phosphate have all increased in the first half of 2025, with copper averaging $9,431 per ton, a 3.75% increase year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 16.44 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan, and 19.006 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 22%, 23%, and 16% compared to previous estimates. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 for 2025-2027 [4][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching 8.671 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year growth of 60.07%, setting a new historical record for the same period [1] - The company benefited from rising prices of metals such as copper, cobalt, and molybdenum, with gross profit margins for these metals increasing by 1.27, 19.66, and 4.45 percentage points respectively during the first half of the year [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 61,100 tons of cobalt in the first half of the year, generating revenue of 5.728 billion yuan from its cobalt mining operations, which is a year-on-year increase of 31.94% [1]

Group 1 - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 57.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 585 million yuan, with total revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million yuan, up 45.6% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter, while the non-recurring net profit was 311 million yuan, reflecting a 70.9% year-on-year increase [1] - The significant profit growth in H1 2025 was driven by rising gold prices and recovery in processing fees for zinc concentrate, alongside increased sulfuric acid prices [1][2] Group 2 - The company has a production capacity of 860,000 tons for lead, zinc, and copper, with annual production exceeding 40,000 tons of lead and zinc metals, and approximately 1.8-2 tons of gold and 60 tons of silver [2] - The average gold price in H1 2025 was 722 yuan per gram, up 38.6% year-on-year, while the average silver price increased by 20.3% to 8,171 yuan per kilogram [2] - The company's gross profit for H1 2025 was 1.27 billion yuan, a 44.9% increase compared to 870 million yuan in H1 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company increased its R&D expenses significantly in H1 2025 to 160 million yuan, compared to 80 million yuan in H1 2024, indicating a stronger focus on research and development [2] - The company has restructured and acquired key lead and zinc assets, enhancing its position in the market [3] - Future profit projections for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 1.19 billion, 1.38 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 51%, 16%, and 8% [3]