本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长加快，市场 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 逢回调采买为主，现货升水下跌；海外LME库存延续增长，现货升水下调。技术面，持仓减量价格下挫， 多头氛围降温。观点参考：预计短线沪镍偏弱调整，关注12.6支撑。 免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 129650 | -10350 03-04月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 250 | 650 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range and slightly upward adjustment in the short - term, and suggests paying attention to the range of 143,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [4] - The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. The import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend due to the rainy season in the Philippines, and the planned reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year and the expected sharp increase in the domestic trade base price in Indonesia lead to concerns about tight raw material supply. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, the production profit has room for profit, so the refined nickel production is expected to rise again. The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with high spot premiums; the overseas LME inventory continues to increase. Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, the long - position sentiment is cautious, and it is expected to be mainly wide - range and slightly upward [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 730 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,590 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 40,119 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 15,899 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,268 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 600 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 285,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,824 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,614 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 10,788 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,506 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 42,499 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 148,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 147,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,430 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.96 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 44.76 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel iron is 21,400 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 99.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.07 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US, and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3] - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, supports increasing the RMB business fund arrangement scale in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3] - Forecast market data shows that the probability of a new shutdown of the US government is close to 80% [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 139800 | 5700 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -220 | 110 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17290 | 530 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 131481 | -3248 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -49943 | -4234 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255354 | 72 | | | 上期所 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is high, but the grade of nickel ore is decreasing, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year. - Newly - invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - end pressure, some smelters are incurring losses and reducing production. Thus, the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. - Stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a lackluster peak season, but the price of ferronickel has fallen, improving the profit of steel mills, and the planned production volume is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium rises; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate weakly. Technically, the position increases while the price falls, the bearish sentiment heats up, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or short when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the MA10 pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,680 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 240 yuan/ton; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,784 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,095 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 34,356 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,298 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 253,104 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 37,187 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 436 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 13,734 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,533 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 121,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 191.38 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.81 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.56 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous period [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2112 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5708 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results. Driven by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate has been expanding for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% month - on - month in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics not only postponed the release of the CPI report but also suspended the offline data collection work. Although the market still tends to expect an interest rate cut in December, the lack of official data may give policymakers who are worried about the resurgence of inflation a sufficient reason to keep interest rates unchanged next month. - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year; soybean imports reached a record high for the same period, while the import volume and price of refined oil, natural gas, and coal both decreased, and rare - earth exports ended three consecutive months of decline. - According to the Passenger Car Association, China's retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month in October. China's retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7.3% year - on - year and decreased by 1.3% month - on - month in October [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply cost is affected by the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the premium of domestic nickel ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the spot premium has risen slightly, and domestic inventories have decreased; overseas LME inventories have increased. Technically, the price is adjusting, and both long and short positions are cautious in trading. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA60. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being and go long with a light position at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is -160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,270 US dollars/ton, down 65 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 45,068 lots, down 5,353 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -30,686 lots, down 1,397 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,900 tons, up 456 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 29,834 tons, up 2,334 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,752 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,536 tons, down 307 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -179.4 US dollars/ton, down 1.57 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,400.11 million tons, up 13.95 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 55.88 million tons, down 0.52 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation in China shows characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and expectations of a new round of policy easing are rising. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, long - short trading is cautious and faces resistance at previous highs. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,425 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton. The main contract's open interest is 66,538 lots, down 4,072 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,541 lots, down 1,273 lots. LME nickel inventory is 224,484 tons, down 600 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,974 tons, down 600 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 26,167 tons, up 1,208 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 185.68 US dollars/ton, down 14.48 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 5.0058 million tons, up 659,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.8616 million tons, up 779,300 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [3] 观点总结 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and raw materials are in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase on dips, the spot premium remains stable, domestic inventory increases, and overseas LME inventory accumulates [3]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Nickel & Stainless Steel: Upward Movement Affected by Indonesian Riot and Strike Sentiment" and is a risk management daily report on September 1st, compiled by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly affected by the weekend riots in Indonesia, which increased the uncertainty sentiment on the supply side. The stainless steel also showed strength, with spot prices generally rising and inventory being reduced. The market is expected to have upward momentum as it approaches the peak season in September and October [4]. - Macro - level factors such as the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index should be continuously monitored. The ongoing riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, and the subsequent development needs attention [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, strategies include selling Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: Similar to nickel, when the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices for future production procurement, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts), sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - side**: In Indonesia, the first - phase benchmark price in September is expected to be slightly lowered, but the premium remains firm. In the Philippines, there was rainfall in some mining areas during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited impact. Nickel iron prices remained firm, and the supply side continued to hold up prices [4]. - **Demand - side**: In the new energy sector, salt factories are relatively strong, the MHP market is in short supply, and new energy vehicle sales are continuously strong. Stainless steel is approaching the peak season in September and October, with demand recovering and having upward momentum [4]. Macro and Market Sentiment - Macro - level factors include the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index. The riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, although there is no actual impact reported from the industrial park yet [5]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, there is an increased expectation of a September interest - rate cut, and the riots in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the seasonal inventory of nickel ore is rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton or 1%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton or 0.61% [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,470 tons, a decrease of 1,402 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, an increase of 300 tons. The stainless steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. The overall refined nickel output has increased slightly due to the stable production rhythm of leading enterprises and the planned launch of new production capacity. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills have increased production due to improved profits, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles have continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices. Both domestic and overseas LME inventories have decreased. Technically, the position has rebounded with rising prices, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold previous long positions, with a reference range of 122,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 91,963 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,342 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 25,674 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 5,527 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,439 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 504 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,773 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 132 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 124,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,900 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 124,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,600 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 174.22 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.18 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65.92 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,259.82 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.97 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,018.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.55 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.68 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and the new order index rose to 49.5. The non - manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerated pace. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded year - on - year to 2.9%, in line with expectations. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the spot premium has risen, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory has also decreased. Technically, the position increases while the price falls, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,930 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,060 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 50,856 lots, down 5,111 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 31,236 lots, down 512 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,328 tons, down 1,086 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, up 768 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,008 tons, down 1,086 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,559 tons, down 282 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 205.19 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged: the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. The two sides had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments further regulated the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition [3]

Report Main Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range short - term interval fluctuation. It recommends either temporary observation or interval operation, with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while Philippine supply recovers. Domestic nickel ore ports see a decline in inventory, and raw materials are tight. Refined nickel production slightly increases, stainless - steel production decreases, and new - energy vehicle production rises but battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to increased downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,130 dollars/ton, up 75 dollars. The main - contract position of Shanghai nickel is 81,103 hands, down 4,949 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,562 hands, down 753 hands. LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,750 tons, up 299 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,687 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded - warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 300 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.28 dollars/ton, down 1.64 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, up 0.1932 million tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Indian media reports that Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies building factories in the US like Apple and TSMC. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to add a 15% tariff. Fed Governor Cook says the July employment report is "worrying" and may signal a turning point in the US economy [3]. 3.7观点总结 - The Indonesian government's policy restricts supply and raises costs, Philippine supply recovers, but domestic nickel ore ports' inventory declines. In July, leading smelters maintained stable production, some increased output, and new capacity is planned, increasing overall refined nickel production. Stainless - steel mills cut production due to profit compression, new - energy vehicle production rises but ternary - battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60, expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [3].