风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 薛洪言 来源：雪球 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 多元化的本质是对未知的敬畏——既然无法确定明天哪个板块会涨，那就不要把全部希望押注在单一方向上。这种防守，守的是不犯致命错误。 今日复盘：地缘风暴下的极致分化 3月3日，A股市场呈现极端分化格局。截至收盘，上证指数收跌1.43%，创业板指跌2.57%，两市成交金额31295亿元，环比放量1088亿元。 盘面上，油气板块掀起涨停潮，三桶油领衔30余只个股封死涨停；与此同时，近4800只个股下跌，国防军工跌6.74%，有色金属跌5.61%，电子跌 5.30%，计算机、传媒等板块跌幅均超4%。亚太市场同样惨淡，日经225指数跌3.06%，韩国综合指数暴跌7.24%。 驱动这轮分化的核心变量是霍尔木兹海峡局势升级——这条承担全球五分之一原油运输的海上咽喉一旦被封锁，中东产油国连续生产25天后将被 迫停产，国际油价应声大涨，布伦特原油一度冲上82美元。 投资的核心：风险识别与管理 面对今日这般极致的市场分化，投资者最容易产生的冲动是：我该如何抓住下一个油气板块？我怎样才 ...

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 雪球2022年、2025度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余 钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 性亏损 ， 还会在反复追涨杀跌中耗尽本金与信心 。 面对周一可能的市场波动 ， 不必过度恐慌 ， 但必须理性行动 。 即便出现低开高走的行情 ， 也绝不能心存侥幸 ， 认为危机已经过去 。 投资 不是赌运气 ， 而是管理概率 。 侥幸是投资最大的陷阱 ， 一次躲过不代表次次平安 。 正确的做法是 ， 趁市场情绪缓和 、 流动性充裕的窗口 ， 果断调降风险持仓 ， 减持高波动 、 高估值 、 高杠杆品种 ， 增加债券 、 高股息蓝筹 、 现金类等防御性资产 ， 让组合回归 " 进可攻 、 退可守 " 、 能够让你安然入睡的平衡状态 。 投资的终极目标 ， 不是某一次暴利 ， ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 《Ten Rules for Investment – the best investment advice you will ever get》 投资十条法则——你能得到的最佳投资建议 作者： 炼金女王 来源：雪球 昨天在看一本老书《至高无上》，作者分享了8位英国顶尖投资经理，除了安东尼波顿，还有祖鲁法则的吉姆斯莱特和新兴市场投资大佬莫比尔 斯。其中，有一位叫伊恩・拉什布鲁克，说实话，我是第一次听说这个名字，查询之后，先是被他的投资收益折服， 伊恩在执掌PAT期间，将基 金规模1990年的550万英镑（其中大部分为其个人资金），增长至2008年的1.6亿英镑，近20年实现29倍规模增长 ，且投资收益持续大幅跑赢 英国大盘指数；但更让我扼腕叹息的是，他于2008年去世，年仅68岁， 在投资的世界，活得久才是关键。 伊恩的投资策略是基于不亏钱为基础设计的，重视仓位管理，市场高估时会提升现金的比例。并且善于用定量分析来做宏观择时和股票排除。更为 触动我，以及和我想法不谋而合的就是，伊恩的灵活 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，研究指数基金(ETF)与大类资产配置框架，关注认知、人性和纪律。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 春节期间看了不少文章 ， 其中2025年10月27日 ， 德意志银行发布的 《 长期资产回报研究 ： 期投资的终极指南 》 很值得深思 。 （ 来源 ： dbresearch.com ， 作者 ： Jim Reid 、 Henry Allen 、 Galina Pozdnyakova ） 该报告 ， 基于对56个经济体跨越数百年的数据 （ 部分可追溯至18世纪 ） 进行深入分析 ， 为投资者揭示了全球金融市场的长期运行规律 。 这份报告不仅回顾了股票 、 债券 、 黄金等主要资产类别的历史表现 ， 更试图找出那些能够预测未来长期回报的关键变量 ， 为战略资产配置提 供了坚实的历史依据 。 我们看文章的关键数据和内容 ： 一 、 超长期视角下 ， 股票一直是重要的收益贡献方 此外 ， 货币因 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that a fulfilling life is built on four essential pillars: earning money, managing finances, managing desires, and managing emotions [5][18]. Group 2 Earning Money - Earning money is considered the most important aspect of life, and it should ideally align with personal interests to transform work into a path of self-fulfillment [7][8]. - Diversifying income sources is crucial; having a side job can provide a safety net and opportunities for growth when primary income sources decline [8]. Managing Finances - Financial management is not just about investing but primarily about saving, especially during years of increased income [10][11]. - The first goal of financial management is to save money, as income distribution is often uneven throughout a person's life [10]. - Wealth preservation and growth come second, requiring a foundation of savings before considering investments [11]. Managing Desires - Managing desires is essential for happiness, as unchecked desires can lead to dissatisfaction [12][13]. - Distinguishing between needs and wants is critical; true happiness comes from balancing desires with one's financial capabilities [13][14]. Managing Emotions - Emotional management is vital for maintaining happiness, as it helps individuals recover from negative experiences [15][16]. - Key steps in emotional management include awareness, acceptance, and transformation of negative emotions into positive actions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the feasibility of the "permanent holding" investment strategy, originally proposed by Warren Buffett, and highlights the challenges and risks associated with it, particularly through the analysis of Buffett's investments in companies like Coca-Cola, which has been the only one to maintain its status as a permanent holding [3][5]. Group 1: Analysis of Permanent Holding - Buffett's claim of permanent holding was primarily associated with three companies: Metropolitan, Washington Post, and Coca-Cola, with only Coca-Cola still being held today [3]. - The decline of the competitive advantages (moats) of the first two companies led to their eventual sale or acquisition, indicating that the permanence of a company's moat is likely a rare occurrence [3][4]. - Coca-Cola's stock experienced a tenfold increase over ten years, but Buffett faced a decade of stagnation due to high valuation, illustrating the risks of adhering to a permanent holding strategy [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of "City Earnings Ratio" (市赚率), which is calculated as the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the return on equity, providing a framework for evaluating investment opportunities [4]. - The City Earnings Ratio can help identify undervalued stocks during bear markets and signal overvaluation during bull markets, making it a useful tool for investors in the Chinese stock market, particularly for companies like Kweichow Moutai [6][7]. - The experience of Buffett with Coca-Cola and the subsequent stagnation serves as a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of not solely relying on the permanent holding philosophy [5][6].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose approximately 1.2%. All three indices recorded declines over the past week, with the Nasdaq showing the largest drop, indicating cautious market sentiment [1]. - Most popular tech stocks declined, with Nvidia and Apple dropping over 2%, and Google, Meta, and Broadcom falling over 1%. Investor concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries have heightened risk-averse sentiment [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, while the core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above December's 0.2% increase [9][10]. - Following the CPI report, traders increased their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with a 50% chance of three cuts by year-end. The probability of a cut in April is 30%, and over 80% for June [10]. Company-Specific News - Meituan issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024. This represents a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [16][18]. - The core reason for Meituan's drastic performance change is the profit collapse in its most profitable segment, "core local business," which is expected to incur an operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in 2025, compared to an operating profit of RMB 524.15 billion in 2024. This is attributed to unprecedented competition in the industry and strategic increases in ecosystem investments [18][20]. - Meituan plans to increase investments in marketing, rider incentives, and operational efficiency to counteract the losses, while also expanding its overseas business [20]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown weakness, declining 6.26% since February, influenced by liquidity shocks. Analysts suggest that the fundamentals and bullish logic for the Hong Kong tech sector remain unchanged [21]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February may be driven by macroeconomic data, policy pricing, and earnings verification, with U.S. inflation and employment data being key factors affecting valuation elasticity in Hong Kong tech stocks [21].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing is misunderstood; it revolves around the concept of "floating capital," utilizing dividends from quality companies for capital allocation, which can be used for both investment and speculation [2] Group 1 - The goal of achieving dividend freedom equates to investment freedom, determined by the number of shares held and the purchase price [2] - The strategy emphasizes being a net buyer until the target number of shares is reached, with a focus on acquiring shares at lower prices [2] - Price fluctuations are deemed irrelevant as long as the company's fundamentals remain intact; the significance of price is only at the time of purchase [2] Group 2 - The investment approach advocates for a diversified portfolio rather than focusing on individual stocks, with a preference for a balanced allocation among three key assets: "old wine cellar," "business hall," and "hydropower station" [3] - The strategy allows for temporary concentration in a single asset if significant opportunities arise before achieving overall investment goals [3] - The investment philosophy stresses the importance of understanding the essence of investments and the long-term journey towards wealth freedom [3] Group 3 - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified investment returns and risk mitigation [4]

以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ，作者范范 范范爱养基 . 专注基金投资分享，说人话，不拽词！不保证说的都对，但都是当下我最最真实的想法。（雪球号同名） ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 范范爱养基 来源：雪球 整理到excel表格中 ， 便于我们对当前持仓更一目了然 ， 心里有数 ： 前两天有朋友在我之前文章 下留言 ， 表示 不知道该怎么用调仓功能进行再平衡 。 他算是提醒我了~ 去年6月我首次用雪球三分法创建完组合后 ， 就很久没有管过了 。 趁新年伊始 ， 正好进行一次 " 再平衡 " 。 写这篇文章时 ， 我刚在雪球三分法完成组合的再平衡操作 。 只想说 ： 简直不要太方便 ！ 操作真的非常简单 ， 省了很多麻烦事 。 今天就以我自己的真实持仓为例 ， 给大家展示具体怎么操作 。 第一步 ： 梳理当前基金和大类资产持仓情况 打开雪球三分法后 ， 可以看到目前所有持仓基金的金额和盈亏情况 ： | 基金子账户 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 基金 按最近交易▼ | 日收益 | 持有收益 | ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 春节前串台播客，聊了很多关于 4000 点之上的心理按摩。其实到了这个点位，我个人是处于且战且退的状态。我不去奢望这一波一定能走出长 牛，因为我是一个不相信 "这一次不一样" 的人。 在那次聊天中，我提到了好莱坞的一部喜剧电影，亚当・桑德勒演的《人生遥控器》。电影里有一个遥控器，一按就可以快进到未来。那部片子其 实是喜剧外壳下的悲剧，但对我们做投资的人来说，它提供了一个极佳的思想实验。 没人能跳过的三年熊市 很多时候我就在想，如果我们手里真的有这么一个遥控器，投资这事儿其实非常好做。 大家都说 A 股是 "熊三年，牛三年"。如果我有遥控器，我在牛市顶点按一下暂停键离场，然后按快进键把这三年的熊市直接跳过，等到那个无人 问津的底部我再按播放键买回来。你会发现中国的股市其实就这么好做，这简直是完美的投资体验。 可现实最残酷的地方就在于，我们没有这个遥控器。 熊市的那三年阴跌，你是要用肉身一天一天去扛的。在这个漫长的过程里，你还要面对无数的不确定性。 回想一下，在 ...