...... 第一条建议，送外卖的电瓶车先别扔。 今天A股和港股的科技板块，都迎来了大跌，如果要找原因的话，宏观和行业层面，都有可以说道说道的。 宏观层面，因为近期欧洲（法国）和小日子的政坛震荡，导致美元指数"被动"走强，昨晚， 自8月1日以来，美元指数首次向上突破99 ，这导致 降息预期+弱美元的宏观假设，有所变化，对非美市场不是什么好事情，今天恒生指数跌了1.7%，而日经225也跌超1%，是其9月1日以来，首次 跌超1个点。 行业层面的利空，其实主要也和宏观有关，11月10日，也就是1个月后，中美要再次商贸会谈，因此，大家近期也能看到，两边都在加紧搞事 情，收集筹码，昨晚提到的咱们对 锂电 的出口管制，就导致今天锂电板块领跌A股和港股。 另外，昨天提到的，静态市盈率超300倍后，股票融资时的折算率归零的规定，加剧了部分杠杆资金的恐慌情绪（因为下跌导致市盈率变化，今 晚，部分券商又对部分个股采取了上调折算率的操作，如果情绪配合，可能导致反弹回来），导致今天在韩国的两家芯片龙头企业涨的飞起的同 时，A股和H股 芯片 却继续大暴跌。 而且，有时候，悲观情绪，会带来更多的悲观情绪，比如，今天 机器人 板块的两则利 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of macroeconomic conditions on style allocation, utilizing three mainstream ETFs for monthly rotation trading, which has consistently outperformed benchmarks in backtesting [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts almost certain, and expectations of declining export growth, the financial environment is expected to improve while economic momentum slows, indicating a preference for the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [1] Group 1: Merrill Lynch Clock Method - The traditional Merrill Lynch clock divides the economic cycle into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with the recovery phase favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [2] - A simulated portfolio based on the Merrill Lynch clock from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 379.9%, with an annualized return of 14.4% and an information ratio of 0.44 [2][24] - For Q4, the combination of marginal economic slowdown and low prices is likely to continue, prioritizing the ChiNext Index and CSI 2000 [2] Group 2: Pring Cycle Method - The Pring cycle categorizes the economic cycle into six stages, with the recovery early stage favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [3] - A simulated portfolio based on the Pring cycle from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 282.4%, with an annualized return of 12.2% and an information ratio of 0.27 [3][43] - In Q4, leading indicators are expected to continue rising, while synchronous indicators may fluctuate, suggesting a preference for the CSI 2000 [3] Group 3: Macro-Friendly Scoring Method - The macro-friendly scoring method combines the Merrill Lynch cycle, inventory cycle, and financial cycle to create a unique indicator that provides clearer insights into the economic cycle state [4] - The report anticipates that the three cycles will resonate positively in the next six months, favoring growth styles [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Given the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the anticipated decline in export growth, the report suggests that the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index have high allocation value [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback today, with the CSI All Share Index down by 1.74%, returning to a rating of 4.3 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced more significant drops [2] - Recent market trends indicate rapid style rotation [3][8] Style Rotation - The previously underperforming value style saw gains today, while the growth style, which had performed well yesterday, faced declines [4][6] - Value and dividend indices showed slight increases, with the banking index rising significantly [5] - The ChiNext and STAR Market experienced notable declines [7] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth and value styles frequently switch, with a notable speed of change [9] - This year, growth styles have led the market, with some STAR Market indices reaching overvalued levels [10] - The ChiNext has seen less growth compared to the STAR Market but has still achieved a relatively high valuation [11] Volatility and Valuation - Following the increase in valuations, the volatility of growth styles is expected to be higher than last year's undervalued state [12] - Investors should prepare psychologically for market fluctuations [13] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced an overall decline, but the drop was less severe compared to the A-share market [14] - The Hang Seng Index showed slight declines but remained relatively resilient [15] Investment Strategies - The article discusses various investment strategies, including a pause in regular investments for certain indices that have returned to normal valuations, with a focus on maintaining positions until undervalued opportunities arise [17][25] - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment strategy, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is highlighted as a stable market participation method [45][46] Pension Fund Insights - The article provides insights into personal pension fund investments, emphasizing the importance of patience and the potential for future undervalued opportunities [39][40] - The performance of selected pension index funds, such as the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, is noted, with the former showing a 19% profit and the latter around 6% [38]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing style rotation, with different styles showing performance at various stages, while value style tends to be more stable during market fluctuations [4][5]. Market Performance - The market index reached a peak of 4.2 stars during the day but closed at 4.3 stars, indicating a slight pullback [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a decline, while small-cap stocks showed minimal volatility [3]. - The recent market trend indicates that consumer sectors have started to gain momentum [9]. Investment Strategies - The Free Cash Flow Index, which had been underperforming, has recently started to gain traction and is currently undervalued, approaching normal valuation levels [6][7]. - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" product, which has a significant value style component, also saw an increase today [8]. - The investment strategy includes pausing contributions to the index-enhanced advisory portfolio as it returns to normal valuation, while continuing regular investments in the actively selected advisory portfolio [15]. Personal Pension Fund Insights - The recent performance of the China Securities A500 and China Securities Dividend indices has returned to normal valuation, leading to a pause in contributions until they become undervalued again [22][23]. - The A500 index has shown a profit of 17% and the Dividend index approximately 7% over the past seven months of investment [23]. Valuation Metrics - The article provides a detailed valuation table for various indices, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, and dividend yield for different investment products [24][31]. - The investment star rating system indicates that a 5-star rating represents the best investment stage, while a 1-star rating indicates a bubble phase [33].

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets serve as a dual-purpose investment, providing both growth potential akin to stocks and stable income similar to bonds, making them an effective balancing tool in investment portfolios [1]. Group 1: Dividend Assets Characteristics - Dividend assets are rooted in sectors closely tied to economic cycles, such as coal, petrochemicals, and finance, exhibiting strong stock-like characteristics while also offering regular dividends [1]. - The unique cross-asset nature of dividend assets allows them to effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility while potentially enhancing returns, achieving a surprising effect of 1+1>2 in holding experience [1]. Group 2: Performance with Other Assets - The "Dividend + Gold" combination effectively controls maximum drawdown while improving the risk-return ratio, especially beneficial during periods of gold market downturns [1][2]. - The "Dividend + Commodity" strategy enhances returns, risk-return ratios, and reduces maximum drawdown compared to holding commodities alone, demonstrating resilience during market downturns [5]. - The "Dividend + Bond" approach offers higher long-term compound return potential with limited increase in maximum drawdown, providing strong inflation resistance [8]. - The "Dividend + Growth" strategy lowers volatility and maximum drawdown while maintaining the elasticity of growth assets, thus improving the risk-return ratio [10]. Group 3: Investment Tools - The E Fund (515180), tracking the CSI Dividend Index, is highlighted as a low-fee quality option for investors seeking to allocate to A-share dividend products [12].

Group 1 - The classic dividend indices, such as the Shanghai Dividend Index and the CSI Dividend Index, rely on dividend yield for stock selection [2] - In recent years, dividend indices have been evolving continuously [3] - Dividend yield is calculated as dividends divided by market capitalization, indicating that the evolution focuses on either dividends or market value (stock price) [4] Group 2 - There are currently three main categories of dividend indices: 1. Dividend + Leader: Companies that are industry leaders with strong competitive advantages and stable dividends [5] 2. Dividend + Quality: Companies with high Return on Equity (ROE) and high dividends, indicating strong profitability and stable dividends [5] 3. Dividend + Growth: Companies with sustained profit growth and increasing dividends [5] - In overseas markets, there are dividend aristocrat indices that select companies with a history of increasing dividends for 10-20 consecutive years, which are not yet present in the domestic market [6] Group 3 - There are stock selection criteria based on industry or company type: 1. Dividend + Industry: For example, consumer dividends, as the consumer sector generally has stronger profitability and stable dividends compared to other sectors [7] 2. Dividend + State-Owned Enterprises: Central and state-owned enterprises have strong competitive advantages in society and stable dividends [7] - The underlying goal of these criteria is to select companies with stable profitability, which in turn leads to more stable dividends [7] Group 4 - There are also criteria based on market value volatility: - Dividend + Low Volatility: In cases of equal returns, lower volatility enhances the investor experience [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing investment risks and optimizing potential returns in the current market environment, suggesting strategies for both risk reduction and return enhancement [1][10]. Risk Reduction Strategies - Utilize short-term funds for investment in funds to avoid the "recency effect" and prevent hasty decisions driven by market trends [2]. - Prioritize investing with funds that are not needed for at least one year, and avoid going all-in [3]. - Implement the "lifecycle method" to determine the appropriate allocation to equity assets based on age, suggesting a formula of (80 - age) / 80 * 100% for equity allocation [6][7]. - Diversify investments across low-correlation funds to smooth out volatility, focusing on both the number of funds and the sectors/styles of investment [8][9]. Return Enhancement Strategies - Choose better trading times, emphasizing the principle of "buy low, sell high" and the importance of patience in holding investments [11][13][15]. - Extend the investment horizon to capture higher returns, as many successful investments require time to realize gains [14][16]. - Select superior investment targets, recommending passive indices during certain market phases and suggesting a diversified approach to index investments [17][18]. Conclusion - The article concludes that successful investing is fundamentally about "buying low and selling high," yet many investors struggle with emotional biases that lead to poor decision-making [19][20][21].

Group 1 - The S&P Dividend Index has outperformed mainstream dividend indices with a return of over 20% in the past year [1] - The S&P A-share dividend index achieved a return of 16.79% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.91 and a dividend yield of 4.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Dividend Index recorded a return of 16.42% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.78 and a dividend yield of 4.19% [2] Group 2 - State-owned enterprise shareholder returns were at 14.32% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.7 and a dividend yield of 4.38% [2] - The China Securities State-owned Enterprise Dividend Index had a return of 11.69% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 and a dividend yield of 4.37% [2] - The China Securities Dividend Index posted a return of 8.83% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.5 and a dividend yield of 4.44% [2] Group 3 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [5]

Market Overview - The recent market performance has been strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 1000 reaching two-year highs, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext ETF have seen four consecutive months of gains, marking year-to-date highs [1] - Despite poor macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, unexpected positive results in imports and exports have contributed to market optimism [1] - The margin trading balance has consistently remained above 2 trillion, indicating a robust market sentiment [1] Investment Trends - The insurance asset growth rate was 20% last year and is expected to remain strong at 16% this year, providing a steady inflow of capital into the market [1] - Global fund managers have shown increased confidence in the Chinese economy, with a recent survey indicating the highest confidence level in five months [3] - There is a notable interest from institutions in Chinese stocks, with a focus on which stocks peers are heavily investing in [3] Company Insights - JD's 7Fresh is planning to open 10,000 stores in three years and invest 10 billion, aiming to innovate in the fresh food sector through AI and automation [3] - The company’s heavy asset model aligns with its logistics and self-operated strengths, potentially disrupting the prepared food market [3] IPO and Market Opportunities - The upcoming IPO of Tianyue Advanced, a leading semiconductor materials manufacturer, is noteworthy, with a fundraising target of 1.938 billion and a significant discount compared to A-shares [6] - The probability of the stock breaking below its issue price is low, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend low-volatility strategies for investors seeking stable returns without the need for market timing, highlighting the growing demand for investment products that provide a sense of certainty and lower risk exposure [4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly looking for dividend funds that offer a high sense of gain, which can outperform cash management tools while minimizing the volatility associated with equity assets [4]. - Among various dividend investment strategies, the dividend low-volatility index has shown to have lower drawdowns and better meet the needs of clients seeking certainty [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The article presents a comparison of different dividend indices, showing that the dividend low-volatility index has an annualized return of 18.4% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of -13.5% and a dividend yield of 4.9% [5]. - The analysis of rolling returns from 2019 onwards indicates that the percentage of positive returns increases with the holding period, reaching 100% for periods of 2 years or more [13][14]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Value - The average return also improves with longer holding periods, with a mean return of 24.65% for 2 years and 38.40% for 3 years, indicating that longer investments yield better outcomes [13]. - The distribution of returns becomes more concentrated in the positive range as the holding period extends, suggesting a more stable long-term investment experience [14]. Group 4: Investor Considerations - Investors are encouraged to set personal "gain thresholds" to determine acceptable levels of positive returns over specific holding periods, which can help in selecting suitable products aligned with their investment goals [17]. - The article suggests that the importance of holding the dividend low-volatility index outweighs the need for market timing, advocating for a long-term investment approach [16].