5家开榨，广西糖厂9家开榨，同比减少17家，近期产区降雨持续，开榨时间相对延迟。不过10月进口糖增 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 加明显，短期糖价低位运行为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5381 | -26 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 388009 | 24796 -7039 | | | 仓单数量:白糖 ...

Report Overview - The report is a sugar industry daily report dated November 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The current sugar market has no significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October. The new sugar - cane crushing season may be delayed, providing some sales opportunities for old - stock sugar. Brazil's sugar exports increased in October, but the supply pressure remains, and exports are expected to decrease seasonally as the current crushing season nears its end. The domestic market is less affected by price drops due to import quotas and policies [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 381,667 lots, up 8,683 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,721, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,947 lots, up 14 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1,183, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,947 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,002 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4,996 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,068 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning it was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangxi Liuzhou it was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production nationwide was 1,588 million tons, up 28 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The cumulative sales volume of cane - sugar in Guangxi was 1116.21 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane - sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports in October were 420.5 million tons, up 26.66 million tons. The cumulative sugar imports were 316 million tons, up 55 million tons. The difference between the imported Thai sugar price and the Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,533 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) it was 467 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The difference between the imported Brazilian sugar price and the Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 539 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons. The monthly production of soft drinks was 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.61%, up 0.34%; that of at - the - money put options was 7.61%, up 0.33%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.24%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.72%, down 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicted that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 1,170 million tons, 50 million tons higher than last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Sugar consumption was predicted to be 1,570 million tons, 20 million tons lower than last month's forecast. ICE's most actively traded March raw - sugar futures rose 0.27 cents, or 1.89%, to settle at 14.52 cents per pound on Wednesday, driven by short - covering [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market's supply surplus forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered to 1 million tons due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and India [2]. - The Brazilian sugar export volume increased in October, but the overall supply pressure remains obvious. However, as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to decline seasonally [2]. - The domestic sugar market is less affected by price drops due to import quotas and policies. Sugar mills in Guangxi are focusing on inventory reduction, and the new crushing season may start later, providing more sales opportunities for old sugar [2]. - There are no significant driving factors in the market, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 372,984 lots, a decrease of 3,343 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,721, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -52,961 lots, a decrease of 889 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4,996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi it was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi it was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugarcane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons; the monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of Brazilian sugar was 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar was 7.27%, an increase of 0.48%; that of put options was 7.28%, an increase of 0.49% [2]. - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar was 5.23%, a decrease of 2.03%; the 60-day historical volatility was 6.86%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Consulting firm Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market's supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and India [2]. - The ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday, stabilizing after hitting a five-year low, as the market awaited Brazilian production data [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: Repairing the Basis, Zhengzhou Sugar Shows Strength [5] Core Viewpoints - The peak production season in central - southern Brazil has passed, and the later crushing volume may gradually decline. However, India and Thailand are entering a new sugar - making season, so the supply pressure remains [8][57]. - With the raw sugar price falling below 15 cents, major global sugar - producing regions are in a loss state. But whether it will lead to production cuts is an issue for the next season and cannot improve the current sugar price [8][57]. - Market research institutions estimate that the sugar production in Guangxi for the 25/26 season will be around 6.7 million tons, an increase of about 0.5 million tons year - on - year [8][57]. - Downstream enterprises report weak demand due to the overall macro - economic situation and low enthusiasm for sugar procurement [8][57]. - Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has been significantly stronger than raw sugar. This is mainly because the Zhengzhou sugar 601 contract is approaching the delivery month. The large basis in the early stage and the early withdrawal of speculative short - position funds without delivery intention have led to a rebound in the futures price. It is a short - term structural market, and there is a lack of bullish support in the medium - term fundamentals [8][57]. Section Summaries 1. Futures Market Review - In October, the raw sugar index showed a continuous four - week decline and a downward - breaking trend, breaking through the 15 - cent and 14 - cent marks and approaching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in October, with the price once falling below the 5400 mark and then rebounding and stabilizing. The rebound was stopped at the 10 - week moving average and the 40 - day moving average [14]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - In October, the spot price of sugar continued to decline. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group dropped from 5810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5700 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan dropped from 5710 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong dropped from 5900 yuan/ton to 5870 yuan/ton [18]. - In October, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus effective forecasts continued to decrease. At the beginning of the month, there were 9464, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 8116. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 9464 to 7530, and the effective forecasts increased from 0 to 586 [18]. 3. Futures Market Structure Analysis - In October, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken while the futures market oscillated horizontally, and the basis continued to shrink. The basis of the 2601 contract against the Nanning spot price decreased from 325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 206 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the basis of the 2605 contract decreased from 356 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [22]. - In October, the spread between the main January contract and the secondary main May contract of Zhengzhou sugar widened significantly, mainly because the departure of short - position speculators in the near - month contract made the 01 contract stronger. The spread increased from 35 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 65 yuan/ton at the end of the month [22]. - In October, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened, reaching 101 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at a slight profit level for raw sugar processing enterprises [25]. - As of September 23, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 125,628 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898,935 contracts [25]. 4. Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [29]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons. The sales volume in May was relatively low compared to the same period in the past five years [31]. - At the end of May 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [35]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In September 2025, the sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar import volume in the country for this sugar - making season was 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12 tons [39]. - In September, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.5283 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 625,600 tons. In October, China suspended the import of all syrup and premixed sugar from Thailand, and policy optimization may suppress short - term imports [39][40]. - In October, the price of overseas raw sugar continued to decline, and the trend of Zhengzhou sugar was weakly oscillating, with the internal - external price spread widening. The processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota increased from around 1420 yuan/ton at the beginning of October to 1785 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the processing profit outside the quota increased from around 193 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [40]. 6. Production in Overseas Major Producing Countries - In the first half of October 2025, in central - southern Brazil, there were 255 production units in operation (3 less than the same period in the previous season). The sugar cane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2%. The total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% [45][47]. - As of October 16, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 524.957 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%. The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%. The cumulative total ethanol production was 25.036 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23% [48]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has become increasingly tense. As of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased from 83 to 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased to 3.7272 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous week [52]. 7. Exchange Rate Factors - In October, the US dollar index showed a strong oscillation. The Brazilian real depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar [54]. - On October 29, local time, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [55]. 8. Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the raw sugar market remains. Although the production in central - southern Brazil may decline, India and Thailand are starting a new season. The current low price may not lead to production cuts in the short term [57]. - For the domestic sugar market, the supply may increase, but the demand is weak. The recent strength of Zhengzhou sugar is a short - term structural phenomenon, and there is a lack of medium - term bullish factors [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. The current trend of Zhengzhou sugar shows an accelerating bottom - seeking situation. With new sugar about to be massively launched and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, showing a wave - like decline, and there may be small rebounds after sharp drops [4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons. ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year. This is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, with a basis of 453 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Zhengzhou sugar is accelerating to find the bottom. New sugar is about to be launched in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The short - term trend will continue to be weak, with the market falling three steps and rebounding two steps, showing a wave - like decline. There may be small rebounds after sharp drops [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply gap of about 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Market Data**: In 2025, China's sugar - producing area data shows that the sown area, harvested area, and unit yield of sugarcane and beet are stable. The predicted sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 billion tons, imports are 5 billion tons, consumption is 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [5].

Group 1: Sugar Production and Market Trends - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the week of September 4, 2025, reached 2.9159 million tons, down from 3.8795 million tons in September of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 145,800 tons, a decrease of 21.08% compared to last year's 184,700 tons [1] - The new sugar season in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has commenced, with expectations for new sugar to be available for sale next week, potentially putting pressure on the spot market [3] - The Brazilian sugar production ratio remains high for the 2025/26 season, significantly above historical levels, indicating a strong preference for sugar production among Brazilian mills [4] Group 2: Import and Pricing Dynamics - Pakistan has procured 80,000 tons of sugar through tender and is set to procure an additional 100,000 tons, indicating strong demand in the region [2] - The cost of Brazilian sugar imports is significantly lower than domestic prices in Guangxi, with quota-included sugar costing 4,482 RMB/ton (15% tariff) and quota-excluded sugar at 5,709 RMB/ton (50% tariff), showing a price difference of 1,408 RMB/ton and 181 RMB/ton respectively [2] - Domestic sugar market sentiment is cautious, with overall trading activity expected to remain weak as the holiday stocking period concludes [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Due to Brazil entering the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter the accumulation phase, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [3]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile due to the influence of domestic and foreign markets. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The 24/25 northern hemisphere sugar production increase was less than expected, and the 25/26 northern hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar - pressing situation [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The sugar production in central - southern Brazil has increased, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has reached a recent high. Although the sugarcane yield per unit is affected by weather and the sugar content is lower than the same period, the sugar - making ratio is high [8][9]. - **Cumulative Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil has reached a new high, and the cumulative sugar production has also increased [11][12]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports and Inventory**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [14]. - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: The 24/25 sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.82 million tons). The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a slight increase [15]. - **India**: The 24/25 sugar production was about 26.1 million tons. As of July 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ethanol volume on the sugar supply - demand [19][21]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Sugar Production**: The 24/25 sugar sales - to - production ratio was higher than the same period, and the inventory remained at a low level. The 25/26 domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [23]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit has increased, leading to a strong import expectation. The import volume is expected to increase. In June 2025, China imported 424,600 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the import volume was 1.0508 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the import volume was 2.5126 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons, a decline of 20.54%. In July, 469,100 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar actually arrived at the port, and 206,300 tons were forecast to arrive in August [26][34][37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No detailed summary content provided in the given text, only some data charts are presented, including data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, and domestic sugar production and imports.

Report Overview - The report is the Sugar Industry Daily Report on August 11, 2025, covering various aspects of the sugar industry including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Report's Core View - Import expectations are increasing, spot prices are weak, and the far - month contracts corresponding to the new crushing season are mainly weak in the short term. It is recommended to conduct rebound short - selling transactions [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,573 yuan/ton with no change; the main contract's open interest is 307,158 lots, an increase of 6,182 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 18,240 sheets, a decrease of 305 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 36,182 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,683 yuan/ton. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,825 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6,010 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 billion tons, an increase of 0.2347 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 12.62%, an increase of 6.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 12.62%, an increase of 6.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.54% with no change [2] Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80 (previously 79), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 billion tons (previously 3.5531 billion tons). Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.5%, and on Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Globally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Viewpoint Summary - Conab Analytics reports that the decline in the per - unit yield of sugar cane in Brazil may reduce Brazil's 2025/26 sugar cane output to less than 600 million tons, far lower than Conab's forecast of 663.4 million tons. Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, and the import pressure is released. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. According to the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' sugar supply - demand report, the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 1,120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in production, import volumes, and international market conditions, with a potential rebound in the second half of 2025 depending on import dynamics and global supply factors [1][35]. Domestic Market Situation - Sugar production for the 2024/2025 season reached 11.1621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% [4]. - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. - The sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The sugar import volume in May 2025 was 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 33,000 tons year-on-year [7]. - Industrial sugar inventory as of May 2025 was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 32.21% year-on-year, indicating lower sales pressure for sugar factories [12]. International Market Situation - Global sugar production is projected to increase from 180.75 million tons in 2024/2025 to 189.31 million tons in 2025/2026, a growth of 4.73% [26]. - The USDA forecasts a total global sugar demand of 177.92 million tons for 2025/2026, up 1.4% from the previous year [26]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to be affected by adverse weather conditions, with a significant decrease in sugar output anticipated [28]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with estimates ranging from 31.6 million to 35 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [31]. Summary of Market Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance in the domestic market appears loose, with projected sugar production of 11.16 million tons and imports of 5 million tons against a consumption of 15.8 million tons [35]. - The import pace in the second half of the year will be crucial for determining sugar price trends, with expectations of reaching 2.4 million tons from June to September [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].