2025年9月的深圳水贝市场，电子屏上"835元/克"的金价不断跳动，不远处深圳市粤宝鑫贵金属有限公 司的门店却贴着冰冷的封条。 这家经营一年多的黄金料商一夜人去楼空，留下超千万元欠款和遍布全国的受害者，连河南许昌胖东来 金店都未能幸免，委托提纯的1公斤黄金连同90万元货款石沉大海。 从2023年底中国黄金加盟店兑付危机，到2025年5月浙江永坤黄金40亿资金崩盘，再到2025年9月水贝料 商跑路，每次金价创历史新高时，总有一批商家应声倒下。 这背后藏着黄金市场的三重深坑，普通人稍不留意就可能血本无归。 01. 黄金暴雷的规律在近三年愈发明显，每次金价单边上涨，都会成为刺破行业泡沫的针，以下三起典型事 件勾勒出完整的风险轨迹： 2023年末，北京多家中国黄金加盟店突然关门失联，其中海淀区山东黄金贵友大厦店涉案金额达4亿 元。 吸引投资者的核心是"稳赚不赔"的承诺：要么按"保本理财"算，每年拿5个点收益；要么像炒股一样赚 金价差价。 但实际上，加盟店根本没有足额储备黄金，收来的资金被挪作他用。 当金价暴涨引发集中兑付，资金链瞬间断裂，不少投资者连本金都无法追回。 这家成立于2014年的企业，在全国开了50多家门 ...

Core Insights - A significant gold heist occurred in Hong Kong, where over 65 kilograms of gold and approximately 20,000 HKD in cash were stolen, totaling around 57 million HKD, reflecting the volatile global gold market [1] - The heist coincided with a peak in international gold prices, which reached a record high of over 3,700 USD per ounce on September 16, 2025, and has seen a cumulative increase of over 40% this year [3][4] - The current gold bull market is driven by three macro forces: the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle, increased geopolitical uncertainties, and a surge in central bank gold purchases [3] Market Trends - The demand for physical gold, particularly gold bars, has increased by 21% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while gold ETFs have seen record net inflows, indicating a diversification in investment preferences [4] - New investment methods such as digital gold accounts and gold accumulation plans are attracting younger investors due to their lower entry barriers [4] Price Volatility and Predictions - Analysts indicate that gold is currently at an overbought level, with a 14-day RSI of 78, suggesting potential profit-taking by some investors [4] - Predictions for future gold prices vary significantly, with Citigroup forecasting a drop to 3,000 USD per ounce, while Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target of 3,700 USD, potentially reaching 4,500 USD [5] - Investors are advised to remain rational and cautious in the face of high gold prices, closely monitoring Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent news regarding the "runaway" of multiple gold material merchants in Shenzhen has caused significant panic among industry players and consumers, with claims of over 260 kilograms of gold being lost and more than 200 million yuan involved [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Reports indicate that over ten gold material merchants have suddenly disappeared, leading to substantial financial losses for more than 100 wholesale merchants [1]. - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association has responded, stating that the rumors are exaggerated, with about 60%-70% of the merchants still operating normally [3]. Group 2: Market Context - Shenzhen's Shui Bei market is the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China, accounting for 70% of the national jewelry processing industry, with annual revenues reaching 120 billion yuan [5]. - The market has a history of volatility, with past incidents of financial failures linked to fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during high price periods [5]. Group 3: Speculative Practices - Various speculative practices are prevalent in the Shui Bei market, including short selling and leveraging, which can lead to significant financial risks for merchants [5]. - Merchants often engage in pre-sale models that allow them to control large amounts of gold with minimal capital, increasing the risk of financial collapse if market conditions shift unfavorably [5]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The surge in gold prices has attracted many investors, leading to a shift from cautious investment to speculative gambling, with individuals risking substantial personal assets [7]. - The allure of quick profits has transformed gold investment into a high-stakes gamble, resulting in significant financial losses for many participants [7]. Group 5: Regulatory and Industry Recommendations - To address the issues highlighted by the Shui Bei incident, recommendations include strengthening regulatory oversight, enhancing industry self-discipline, improving investor education, and leveraging technology for market monitoring [10][11]. - The establishment of a comprehensive governance system is suggested to mitigate speculative risks and promote sustainable development in the gold industry [10][11].

这已是水贝市场两年内第三次重大跑路事件。 2024年4月"千百万珠宝"事件涉及400公斤黄金，2025年4月又有珠宝商因黄金投资亏损1亿元。中国有色金属工业协会金银分会副秘书长梁永慧指出，当国际 金价在2000-2400美元/盎司区间波动时，国内金价一度突破700元/克，高价令消费者观望，却让投机者陷入疯狂。 目前警方已对涉事商铺实施查封，受损商户正在派出所登记备案。专家建议未来需建立信用评估体系，采用银行保函等安全支付方式，并运用区块链技术实 现交易全流程溯源。 这场风波再次警示：在每年流动7000亿元、日均交易5-10吨黄金的"珠宝心脏地带"，随着金价的不断走高，波动会日益增大，这种不受监管的熟人交易模式 风险巨大，投资者或下游商家应保持谨慎。 深圳水贝黄金市场正在经历一场前所未有的地震！ 9月13日，粤宝鑫黄金经营场所突然贴出停业公告，随后包括君豪、华贵、盛凯在内的近二十家黄金原料供应商集体"蒸发"，卷走超过260公斤黄金原料，涉 案金额高达2亿元人民币。 这场被称为"水贝史上最大跑路事件"的风波，让无数投资者手握转账凭证和微信聊天记录，站在紧闭的卷帘门前欲哭无泪。 这场危机的根源竟是商家对金价的致命误 ...

而且，这类事件并非第一次发生。2024年4月，水贝市场就有"千百万珠宝"暴雷，涉及400公斤黄金，金 额高达2亿元5。2025年4月，还有一位老板因炒黄金亏损1亿元。一些商家甚至用"镀金"冒充真金，例 如"金包银"或在黄金中掺铼，普通消费者根本无法辨别。 这次暴雷事件不仅让许多家庭损失惨重，还严重破坏了市场信任。老百姓在选择黄金投资时，一定要谨 慎考察商家信誉，避免依赖口头协议和高回报承诺，优先选择正规渠道和受监管的交易方式。只有这 样，才能避免成为下一个受害者。 这件事的根本原因在于商家们投机做空黄金失败。当金价在每克780元时，他们借入大量黄金卖出，指 望金价跌到760元时再买回来还回去，赚取中间差价。但没想到黄金价格一路暴涨到830元，他们每克反 而要亏50元。巨大的亏损无法弥补，资金链断裂，最终只能选择跑路。 危害最大的就是普通老百姓。比如有一对刚刚裸辞创业的01年姐妹，她们投入了1.6万元购买黄金原 料，结果血本无归，连报案回执都难以拿到。这样的受害者不在少数，许多人多年积蓄一夜蒸发。更可 怕的是，水贝市场的交易多数依赖"熟人模式"，没有正式合同，仅靠微信聊天和转账凭证完成。一旦出 现问题，维权极其 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that gold prices have declined, with spot gold touching $3,310 per ounce for the first time since July 17 [1] - On July 28, domestic precious metal prices generally fell, with SHFE gold down 0.33% and physical gold prices also mostly declining, such as China National Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2][3] Group 2 - Three types of risks to watch for in the gold market include: 1) Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish Fed officials could raise interest rate expectations, weakening gold's appeal [3] 2) Trade and geopolitical risks, where a reduction in tariff threats before August 1 could lead to a withdrawal from safe assets, impacting gold demand [3] 3) Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in key ranges, potentially increasing costs for chasing higher prices [3] Group 3 - President Trump reiterated the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that even without a rate cut, the U.S. economy is performing well, but would perform better with a cut [4] - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.50%, and Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell's reluctance to lower rates significantly [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and highlights the potential risks affecting the gold market, particularly in relation to U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first decline since July 17 [1]. - Domestic precious metal prices also saw a general decline, with SHFE gold dropping by 0.33% and the China Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious following a previous surge in gold prices, with three key risks identified: 1. U.S. Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish comments from officials could lead to rising interest rate expectations, diminishing gold's appeal [2]. 2. A potential easing of trade and geopolitical risks, which could result in funds moving away from safe assets, negatively impacting gold demand [2]. 3. Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in gold prices, increasing the cost of chasing higher prices if market expectations align [2].

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the gold market is attributed to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of inexperienced investors falling into multiple traps [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, London spot gold fluctuated around $3,290 per ounce, down 6% from the historical high in April [1] - Global gold demand is projected to reach a record high in 2024, despite the rise in risks such as scams and high leverage liquidation events [1] Group 2: Common Traps for New Investors - **Herd Mentality**: Many new investors view gold as a guaranteed profit tool, leading to impulsive buying during price surges, resulting in significant losses during downturns [3] - **Overtrading**: New investors often overlook trading costs, with some platforms charging spreads as high as $0.8 per ounce, potentially leading to a 12% annual loss on capital due to frequent trading [4] - **Neglecting Risk Management**: High leverage in gold trading can lead to substantial losses; for instance, a 1% price fluctuation with 50x leverage can result in a 50% loss of capital [5] - **Platform Scams**: The rise of clone platform scams poses a significant risk, as seen in a case where an investor was misled into transferring 1.9 million yuan to a fraudulent account [6] - **Lack of Planning**: Long-term investors in gold (over 5 years) achieve an average annual return of 8.2%, while frequent traders see only 15% achieving positive returns [7] Group 3: Recommendations for New Investors - New investors are advised to accumulate experience through simulated trading and to utilize educational resources to understand market influences [3] - Implementing a "pyramid accumulation" strategy is recommended, where initial positions do not exceed 20% of capital, with incremental increases based on market movements [8] - The importance of verifying platform legitimacy and transaction speed is emphasized to avoid scams [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent turmoil in the global economy has led investors to seek "safe havens" like gold, but the investment landscape is fraught with risks, as evidenced by the collapse of Zhejiang Yongkun Holdings, which has left many investors in financial distress [2][4][40]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhejiang Yongkun Holdings, operating under the name Yongkun Gold, attracted investors through a gold custody model, promising returns and the ability to withdraw funds or gold within specified periods [10][8]. - The company was established in 2014 and had a registered capital of 102.3 million RMB, with its headquarters located in Hangzhou [21][20]. - As of late May 2025, the company was reported to have gone silent, with its online platform clearing out products and customer service becoming unreachable [26][30]. Group 2: Investment Model and Risks - Yongkun Gold's investment model involved both online and offline sales, with promises of guaranteed returns and high annualized yields of around 7% [10][32]. - The company faced scrutiny for its non-compliance with financial regulations, as it was not a licensed financial institution and made unrealistic promises of guaranteed returns [40][42]. - Investors reported being unable to withdraw their funds or gold, leading to significant financial losses, with some families investing millions [16][18][30]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Issues - Following the company's operational issues, it was placed on a list of businesses with abnormal operations due to its inaccessibility [24][26]. - Legal experts indicated that the company's practices were likely illegal, as non-financial institutions are not permitted to offer gold investment services with guaranteed returns [40][42]. - The insurance policies provided by Yongkun Gold were found to have significant loopholes, failing to cover risks associated with the company's potential collapse [26][40]. Group 4: Investor Impact - The fallout from Yongkun Gold's collapse has left many investors in dire situations, with some facing debts and financial ruin [30][34]. - Victims of the scheme are struggling to gather evidence for potential legal recourse, highlighting a lack of awareness regarding the importance of documentation in investment transactions [37][30]. - The total amount of funds involved in the scandal is estimated to be at least 4.1 billion RMB, with many investors feeling deceived by the company's promises [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant rebound in gold prices after a period of volatility, with COMEX gold reaching $3,329 per ounce and spot gold at $3,319.78 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1][2]. Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have experienced a rollercoaster ride, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline of 1.67% over the past week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [2][3]. - Between April 30 and May 2, COMEX gold and London gold saw declines of 3% and 2.29% respectively, leading to domestic jewelry gold prices dropping below 1,000 yuan per gram [3]. Investor Behavior - The article notes that some investors have become overly aggressive, with reports of individuals mortgaging properties and taking loans to invest in gold, leading to significant financial distress for some [3][4]. - A specific case is highlighted where an investor lost the equivalent of six years' salary in a single day due to a sharp decline in gold prices, illustrating the risks associated with high-leverage trading [4]. Institutional Responses - Several gold ETFs have suspended subscription and redemption services, indicating a recognition of the heightened risks in the gold market [6][7]. - Financial institutions, including banks, have issued warnings to investors about the increased volatility in gold prices and the importance of risk management [8]. Market Dynamics - The article mentions that the recent drop in gold prices was anticipated due to previous excessive gains and a shift in investor sentiment following comments from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [8].