本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284 号） 研究局限性和风险提示 2026 年 2 月 27 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1150.10 | 1146.480 | 22286 | 22572 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1154.34 | 1151.060 | 22786 | 23029 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -4.24 | -4.580 | -500 | -457 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -0.37% | -0.40% | -2.19% | -1.98% | | | 场 | 持仓量 ...

周天芸(中山大学国际金融学院教授、高级金融研究院研究员) 近日，国际黄金市场呈现剧烈波动态势。截至1月30日18时，现货黄金失守5000美元/盎司，日内跌幅超过7%。而就在前一日，国际金价还 一度涨破5600美元。 黄金白银等贵金属是天然的货币，其货币属性体现在其储备货币和最后清偿手段的职能，及其在现行全球美元信用货币体系中作为备兑资 产的角色。黄金的抗通胀属性和避险属性一定程度是黄金货币属性的衍生表达。 避险需求是导致金价上涨的根本逻辑。黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点，与其他的金属类大宗商品相比，黄金在工业上使 用的比例较小，基本是金融属性。一般商品价格的涨跌主要取决于供需关系，而黄金因为其金融属性，它的价格形成机制则要复杂得多。 影响黄金价格走势的不仅是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多重因素，当全球经济遭遇危机和挑战时，投资者为了保 值或避险，会倾向于持有黄金，从而推升黄金价格。黄金价格变化一定程度体现世界经济的变化趋势。拉长时间周期来看，本轮国际金价 上涨自2019年下半年开启，至2025年进入加速上涨通道，与美元信用风险暴露、地缘政治风险爆发等因素有关，反映全球经济不确定性 ...

截至1月29日，已披露2025年业绩预告的6家金矿公司，净利润合计602亿元～625亿元。其中净利润增速 平均值至少达到84%。 随着金价的连续上涨，"家中有矿"的黄金股业绩继续大幅预增。 截至1月29日，已披露2025年业绩预告的6家金矿公司，净利润合计602亿元～625亿元。其中净利润增速 平均值至少达到84%。 今年以来，黄金价格继续"狂飙"，29日先冲上5400美元/盎司，不到半小时再突破5500美元/盎司， COMEX黄金盘中一度突破5600美元，最高触及5626.8美元/盎司，伦敦金现逼近5600美元，再创历史新 高。 紫金矿业是黄金公司中，拥有黄金储量最多的公司。该公司预计2025全年净利润区间为510亿元～520亿 元，在6家公司中净利润额占比约八成。净利润同比增幅达59%～62%。 中金黄金紧随其后，预计报告期内净利润为48亿元～54亿元，同比增长41.76%～59.48%；赤峰黄金预 计全年净利润30亿元～32亿元，同比增幅达70%～81%。 净利润增速方面，招金黄金净利同比增长率最高达到242%。该公司称，业绩变动原因为主营业务扭 亏，预计为1.22亿元～1.82亿元，上年同期亏损1.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently trading around $4,324 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.48% with fluctuations between $4,297.39 and $4,325.32 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Core PCE price index, retail sales data, and Eurozone inflation data are set to be released, with the Core PCE expected to maintain a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. A higher-than-expected figure could boost gold prices due to its anti-inflation properties, while a lower figure may lead to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold [2] - Strong retail sales data would highlight U.S. economic resilience, potentially reducing rate cut expectations and negatively affecting gold prices, whereas weak data could increase safe-haven demand for gold [2] Geopolitical Factors - Signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukraine's President expressing willingness to abandon NATO membership as a core part of peace negotiations, have led to a short-term decline in gold prices as the risk premium decreases [2] - Ongoing tensions in Southeast Asia, including unresolved ceasefire arrangements between Thailand and Cambodia, and a terrorist attack in the Australian Jewish community, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] Market Sentiment - The international gold price has increased nearly 60% in 2025, currently hovering around the $4,300 mark. There is a strong profit-taking sentiment in the market, with institutions and large investors potentially selling at high prices to lock in gains, which may lead to a short-term price correction [3] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded strongly in November, recovering most of October's losses, which has shifted the bearish outlook to a more bullish one. However, the price needs to break above the $4,400 level to open further upside potential, or it may face resistance and horizontal adjustments [4] - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices are still above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook, although there is resistance at the trendline [4] - Daily charts indicate a potential risk of further corrections due to a long upper shadow candlestick pattern, but the overall trend remains upward with multiple moving average supports below [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in international gold prices to $4100 per ounce has led to an increase in domestic gold prices, prompting banks to adjust the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - International gold prices have recently increased to $4100 per ounce, while domestic prices have risen from 900 yuan per gram at the end of October to over 940 yuan per gram [1]. - The increase in gold prices has resulted in banks raising the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, with many banks surpassing the 1000 yuan threshold [2]. Group 2: Bank Adjustments - Citic Bank announced an increase in the minimum investment for gold accumulation from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, effective November 15 [1]. - Other banks, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have also raised their minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products [1][2]. - Some banks have shifted their accumulation models from fixed amounts to variable amounts based on current gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gold accumulation business allows customers to either withdraw physical gold or sell it for cash, making it attractive to consumers [2]. - The pricing of gold accumulation products is influenced by the Shanghai Gold Exchange prices, leading to increased thresholds for consumers as gold prices rise [2]. - Traffic Bank has adjusted its gold accumulation plan to a model where the minimum investment is based on the fluctuating gold price, requiring the investment to be at least equal to the current gold price [3]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that gold remains a reliable asset for hedging against risks and inflation, despite recent price volatility [3]. - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by factors such as global uncertainty and declining real interest rates, although market sensitivity to external news can increase price fluctuations [4][5].

Group 1 - London gold prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, trading between $3307.79 and $3316.81, reflecting a short-term bearish trend influenced by the subtle progress in US-China trade negotiations [1][3] - The US Trade Representative indicated that there would be no breakthrough in the current round of trade talks, leading to sustained market concerns over trade disputes, which has established a key support level for gold at $3300 [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June, highlighting gold's strategic value as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, London gold is at a critical testing point of the bullish trend line between $3320 and $3330; a significant drop below this support could trigger a sell-off, while a breakout above $3350 could open up upward potential to $3385 [3] - The current market dynamics are shaped by the interplay of policy cycles and geopolitical risks, with the US Congressional Budget Office predicting a fiscal deficit rate above 6% for 2025, which may elevate inflation expectations and reinforce gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding US military actions against Iran, has raised concerns about potential disruptions in the energy supply chain, providing long-term support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Gold ETF fund flows have shown divergence, with a net inflow of 16.7 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, but a recent slowdown in ETF holdings growth indicates cautious sentiment in the market [4] - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a robust trading solution with a compliance framework that includes bank custody, independent audits, and risk reserves, ensuring transparency and security for investors [5] - The company has implemented a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, with a spread as low as $0.38 per ounce, providing significant cost savings for investors in a volatile market [5] Group 4 - The platform supports MT4/MT5 systems with rapid order execution speeds and low slippage rates, enhancing the trading experience for investors during high volatility periods [6] - Looking ahead, London gold is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward" trend, with potential to break through the $3400 mark as Fed rate cut expectations materialize [7] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips and dynamic profit-taking," with specific entry and exit points to maximize returns while managing risks effectively [7]

Group 1 - Recent significant decline in gold prices attributed to multiple factors, including a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S., which reduced market risk aversion and diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The fragile nature of the ceasefire, with both sides accusing each other of violations and criticism from Trump, raises doubts about its sustainability, casting a shadow over the gold market outlook [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's signals of not rushing to cut interest rates in July have led to a surge in the dollar index, resulting in gold sell-offs [1] Group 2 - Gold faced strong selling pressure after reaching a critical price level of 3350, dropping to a low of around 3310 during the trading session [3] - Technical analysis indicates strong resistance in the 3335-3344 range and support in the 3314-3309 range, with the market currently exhibiting a volatile pattern [3] - Suggested trading strategies include buying on dips between 3313-3307 with a target of 3325-3344 and selling on rebounds between 3329-3333 with a target of 3320-3312 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and adjustments while maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [1][4][9]. Market Performance - On June 10, gold opened at $3325.40 per ounce, reached a low of $3301.75, and later peaked at $3348.78 before closing at $3322.33, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $47.03 and a slight decline of 0.092% [1]. - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong US non-farm payroll data, which has bolstered the dollar and pressured gold prices [4][8]. Economic Indicators - The US CPI data is anticipated to rise, which may reduce interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a temporary decline in gold prices. However, this could also enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6][9]. - Current market conditions reflect a strong expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability close to 60% [9]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, supported by the upward trend line established since March, despite recent volatility [11][15]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend, while the weekly chart shows potential support at the middle band [13][15]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of reaching $3500 or higher within the year, despite short-term fluctuations [6][9][15]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities during pullbacks, as the long-term trend remains bullish [11][15].

Group 1 - Spot gold traded around $3,370 per ounce, rising nearly 1% on June 4 due to weak U.S. data and a softening dollar, reaching a high of $3,384.71 [1] - Domestic gold prices reported at ¥781.76 per gram, with a basic gold price of ¥778.1 per gram and retail price for investment gold bars at ¥794.1 per gram [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. economic data has strengthened the demand for safe-haven assets, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 in May, marking the first drop below the neutral line since June 2024, and the ADP employment increase at only 37,000, the lowest in over two years [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, with the Trump administration doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, is expected to increase inflation concerns and enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to $3,700, emphasizing the combined impact of tariff uncertainty and recession risks [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices closed at $3,372.60, maintaining above the 50-day moving average, with significant resistance at the $3,400 level [7] - Silver prices closed at $34.489, forming a doji pattern, with strong resistance at $34.80 and support from the 20-day moving average [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices due to easing trade tensions between the US and UK, leading to a drop in safe-haven premiums and a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [1]. - The domestic gold ETF market saw a decline, with several ETFs dropping over 2% in value [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold ETF total scale was approximately 1,490 billion yuan, recovering from a low of 1,450 billion yuan after a previous high of 1,522 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - The gold ETF market experienced a rapid inflow of funds in April, with a total increase of 834 billion yuan year-to-date, but saw a subsequent outflow of 65 billion yuan in early May [4][5]. - The COMEX gold futures report indicated a decrease in long positions by 1,411 contracts, while short positions increased by 752 contracts, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The article highlights that the easing of trade tensions has reduced market risk aversion, contributing to the volatility in gold prices [7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases and inflation concerns are expected to support gold prices [8][9].