1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand data of rebar has slightly improved, with production decreasing, inventory growth narrowing, and apparent demand slightly rising. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan and the macro - vacuum period contribute to this trend [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to experience narrow - range oscillations. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, while the number of blast furnace overhauls and restarts has changed, and the inventory situation is complex, with port inventory rising and steel mill inventory falling [1]. - The coking coal market is likely to fluctuate. The production of some coal mines has decreased, downstream procurement is cautious, but coke enterprises' profits have recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remains high [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm, but some areas are affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke is relatively stable [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is expected to fluctuate. The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remains high, steel mills' demand is weak, and the inventory is at a medium level in recent years [1]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to fluctuate. The production of silicon - iron is increasing, downstream price - pressing intention is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Market Performance | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | Rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,300 in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. | This week, the national rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons year - on - year; social inventory increased by 175,800 tons to 4.3251 million tons; factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.7453 million tons; apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Iron Ore | The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day, with 280,000 transactions and an increase of 11,000 in positions. Port spot prices rose. | Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 restarts. Hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2.4075 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 626,300 tons to 144.442 million tons, the number of ships in port decreased by 3, and steel mill inventory decreased by 810,000 tons to 90.65 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1147 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 649 in positions. The price of some coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong. | The production of some coal mines decreased due to accidents and safety inspections. Coke enterprises' profits recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remained high. | Oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 807 in positions. Port spot prices were stable. | Coke enterprises' profits improved, and production enthusiasm increased, but some areas were affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke was relatively stable. | Oscillation [1] | | Manganese - Silicon | The manganese - silicon futures price oscillated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 6712 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remained high, and the weekly output exceeded 200,000 tons. Steel mills' demand was weak, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased slightly. | Oscillation [1] | | Silicon - Iron | The silicon - iron futures price strengthened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 3215 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The weekly production of silicon - iron continued to increase, reaching 113,400 tons this week, a 0.5% increase from the previous week. Downstream price - pressing intention was strong, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 3100 tons to 62,080 tons. | Oscillation [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Basis | Latest Value | MoM | Spot | Latest Value | MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 10 - 1 month | - 79.0 | - 4.0 | 10 - contract | 179.0 | 21.0 | Shanghai | 3300.0 | 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 39.0 | - 1.0 | 01 - contract | 100.0 | 17.0 | Beijing | 3260.0 | 0.0 | | | | | | | | | Guangzhou | 3310.0 | 0.0 | | Hot Roll | 10 - 1 month | 15.0 | - 2.0 | 10 - contract | 45.0 | 17.0 | Shanghai | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | | | | | | | Tianjin | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 9.0 | - 12.0 | 01 - contract | 60.0 | 15.0 | Guangzhou | 3520.0 | - 10.0 | | Iron Ore | 9 - 1 month | 18.5 | 1.5 | 09 - contract | 24.9 | - 2.8 | PB powder | 769.0 | 2.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | 24.5 | 2.5 | 01 - contract | 43.4 | - 1.3 | Super Special powder | 652.0 | 4.0 | | Coke | 9 - 1 month | - 59.0 | - 14.0 | 09 - contract | 27.8 | 28.0 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade | 1470.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 88.0 | 1.5 | 01 - contract | - 31.2 | 14.0 | | | | | Coking Coal | 9 - 1 month | - 117.0 | 1.0 | 09 - contract | 128.0 | 134.5 | Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal | 1350.0 | 120.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 46.0 | - 7.5 | 01 - contract | 11.0 | 135.5 | | | | | Manganese - Silicon | 9 - 1 month | - 92.0 | - 12.0 | 09 - contract | 4.0 | 10.0 | Ningxia, Inner Mongolia | 5570.0, 5750.0 | - 30.0, 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 50.0 | 0.0 | 01 - contract | - 88.0 | - 2.0 | Guangxi | 5780.0 | - 20.0 | | Silicon - Iron | 9 - 1 month | - 160.0 | - 6.0 | 09 - contract | - 54.0 | - 58.0 | Ningxia | 5330.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 120.0 | 8.0 | 01 - contract | - 214.0 | - 64.0 | Inner Mongolia, Qinghai | 5300.0 | - 50.0 | | | Profit | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | | | Rebar futures profit | - 28.6 | - 9.8 | Coil - rebar spread | 254.0 | - 16.0 | Coking coal ratio | 1.5 | 0.01 | | | Long - process profit | 67.8 | 6.4 | Rebar - iron ore ratio | 4.0 | - 0.03 | Coke - iron ore ratio | 2.2 | - 0.03 | | | Short - process profit | 36.2 | 10.4 | Rebar - coke ratio | 1.9 | 0.01 | Double - silicon spread | - 292.0 | 18.0 | 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides historical price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents historical basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [19][20][22][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows historical inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [28][32][34][36][37][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - variety contract spread trend charts for the main contracts of coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal ratio, and double - silicon spread [42][44][46]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit trend charts for the main contract of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.11） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 现货价格 基差 | 涨跌幅 | | | | 螺纹 | 3250 35 80 | 1.09% | 3330 | | | 热卷 | 3465 44 | 1.29% | 3460 | -5 | | 铁矿 | 796.5 6.5 | 0.82% | 769 | -27.5 | | 焦煤 | 1256 36.5 | 2.99% | 980 | -276 | | 焦炭 | 1681 32.5 | 1.97% | 1431 | -250 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体偏多头。螺纹收于3250元/吨，上涨1.09%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3465元/吨，上涨1.29%；铁矿今日主力合约收于796.5元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | 天上涨，焦煤继续领涨涨幅接近3%。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel统计247家钢厂日均铁水产量为240.32万吨，环比上周 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3231 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 3 元/吨，跌幅 0.09%，持仓减少 2.44 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | 窄幅整理 | | | 格 3090 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3310 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.7 万吨。据我的钢 | | | | 铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 10.12 万吨至 221.18 万吨，同比增加 52.64 万吨；社库环比回升 4.34 | | | | 万吨至 388.48 万吨，同比减少 146.65 万吨；厂库环比回升 6.05 万吨至 168.2 万吨，同比减少 16.82 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需回升 7.38 万吨至 210.79 万吨，同比增加 20.03 万吨。螺纹产量明显回升，库存增幅扩大，表需回 | | | | 升，现实供需数据表现偏弱。据海关数据，2025 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3294 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 20 元/吨，涨幅 0.61%，持仓减少 1.63 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | 震荡偏强 | | | 格上涨 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 20 元/吨至 3370 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.15 | | | | 万吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.9 万吨至 211.96 万吨，同比减少 4.73 万吨；社库环 | | | | 比回升 2.81 万吨至 372.97 万吨，同比减少 193.62 万吨；厂库环比回落 7.43 万吨至 165.67 万吨，同比减少 | | | | 27.98 万吨；螺纹表需回升 10.41 万吨至 216.58 万吨，同比增加 10.41 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回升，库存再次 | | | | 转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。淡季 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面强势上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3224 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 上涨 77 元/吨，涨幅 2.45%，持仓增加 2.01 万手。现货价格明显上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格上涨 20 元/吨至 3060 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 80 元/吨至 3300 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.78 | | | | 万吨。上周五工信部表态钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长方案即将出台，工信部将推动重点行业 | | | | 着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。7 月 19 日中国雅江集团正式成立，计划建设雅鲁藏布江下游水电 | | | | 工程，总投资高达 1.2 万亿元（相当于 10 个港珠澳大桥、5 个三峡工程），建设周期 10-15 年。钢铁行业 | | | | 供给侧改革预期再起，大基建题材也接连发力，在很大程度上提升市场情绪。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将偏强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to experience volatile consolidation. The decline in real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment data has affected market sentiment, and short - term steel prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to remain in high - level volatility. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, and the demand for iron ore has also declined, the inventory at ports has decreased, and attention should be paid to the steel demand during the off - season [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend. The resumption of coal mine production and the change in the urbanization stage have affected market expectations, and the short - term prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile. Although the cost and steel tender prices have some support, the overall fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward space is limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined slightly, and the spot price also decreased. The investment data of real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June weakened, and the short - term rebar futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the port spot price showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore declined. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the spot price in some areas increased. With the resumption of coal mine production and the change in urbanization stage, the short - term coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase of coke was lower than expected, and the terminal demand increment expectation was disappointed. The short - term coke futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The cost support increased, and the steel tender price was higher than expected. However, the supply - demand pattern was relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The steel tender price increased, but the supply - demand was at a low level, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased by 14.0, and the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore decreased by 1.5 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar increased by 14.0, and the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore increased by 0.6 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties changed differently. For example, the spot price of Shanghai rebar decreased by 10.0, and the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of various varieties also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit decreased by 19.3, and the coil - rebar spread increased by 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][14][17]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][32][33][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report includes the inter - variety contract spread charts of the main contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit charts of the rebar main contract, including the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of black industry chain research [52]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures combination [53].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅整理，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2997 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.07%，持仓减少 1.86 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交小幅回升，唐山地区迁安普方 | 低位整理 | | | 坯价格持平于 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3090 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.49 万吨。据钢 | | | | 银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 0.27%至 370.31 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.18%至 171.02 万吨，库存整体小幅 | | | | 回升，基本符合预期。近期螺纹需求温和下滑，但钢厂淡季转产明显，螺纹库存淡季并未累积，矛盾不强， | | | | 钢坯出口依然较强，部分钢厂出口接单至 8 月，钢厂对规格继续加价，说明钢厂暂时压力还不大。预计短 | | | | 期螺纹盘面仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格冲高回落，收于 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 黑色商品日报 | | 锰硅：周四，锰硅期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5676 元/吨，环比上涨 0.96%，持仓环比下降 2966 手至 39.85 万手。昨日黑色板块走势偏强，焦煤价格领涨，锰硅期价重心环比上移。消息面，近日市场有消息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 传出，南非锰矿将减量发运。据铁合金在线，"因近月南非部分矿区到萨尔达尼亚港口和伊丽莎白港口的 | | | | 铁路线路频发火车脱轨事件，致使部分锰矿山发运效率减缓，7 月发运至中国南非锰矿存个别矿山减量。 | | | 锰硅 | 但因火车脱轨事件仅存在于部分路线，影响面积暂时有限"。近期部分锰矿贸易商小幅上调锰矿报价。基 | 震荡偏强 | | | 本面来看，锰硅周产量虽处于近年来同期低位，但截止上周末，锰硅周产量已经连续 5 周环比回升。需求 | | | | 端，主流钢招定价后，其余钢招陆续进行中，未有明显超预期改善。综合来看，消息扰动市场情绪，成本 | | | | 支撑增强，锰硅期价重心环比上移，但基本面持续驱动力度不强，短期锰硅以震荡略偏强看待，上方空间 | ...