1月16日，A股成交额盘中突破10000亿元，截至10:01分，沪深两市成交10010亿元，较上个交易日此时 缩量23亿元。 上证指数报4114.91点，上涨0.06%， 深证成指报14337.8点，上涨0.22%。全部A股平均股 价为29.51元，上涨0.27%。领涨板块方面， 电网设备涨4.22%、小金属涨1.84%、 半导体涨1.63%、 电 力行业涨1.6%、 有色金属涨1.5%。领跌板块方面，文化 传媒跌3.68%、采掘行业跌2.91%、 游戏跌 2.64%、互联网服务跌2.44%、 医疗服务跌2.22%。 ...

东莞证券认为，周四，A股市场三大指数涨跌不一。从技术分析角度看，沪指当日盘中4100点附近触发 技术性反弹，显示短期支撑有效，当前沪指在4100点附近形成技术性支撑，若不跌破该点位，后市仍有 反复新高的可能。近期美元指数呈现反弹态势，然而人民币汇率依然保持稳健，整体汇率环境为A股提 供了相对有利的支撑。当前通胀水平温和回升，经济复苏的内生动能逐步修复，宏观基本面向好，有助 于A股市场延续结构性慢牛格局。从情绪层面观察，跨年行情仍有望持续展开，但短期内A股市场波动 或有所加剧，投资者宜保持谨慎乐观，着重在震荡中布局产业趋势明确、业绩具备韧性的结构性机会。 中原证券认为，周四，A股市场震荡整理，盘中电池、半导体、有色金属以及能源金属等行业表现较 好；互联网服务、文化传媒、医药商业以及软件开发等行业表现较弱。进入一月份以来，市场交投再度 活跃，两融余额同步攀升，增量资金入场迹象明确，为行情延续提供支撑。国内无风险收益率持续下 行，居民存款向权益市场"搬家"的趋势为市场提供了充裕的流动性环境。人民币资产吸引力增强，共同 推升了市场风险偏好。2025年12月CPI同比涨幅微幅扩大，显示内需出现边际改善迹象。在量能有效放 ...

专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会 2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。谈及什么叫好股票，什么叫坏股 票，前券商首席经济学家李大霄表示，这是一个最根本的问题。好股票、好公司有五个维度。第一，对 客户。第二，对员工。第三，对股东。第四，对社会。第五，对自然，它有没有做出正面贡献，这是判 断好公司的标准。他特别强调，要注意顺序，第三才是对股东。 "差的公司，把手伸进股民的口袋里掏钱，怎么能够买？千万别上当，那么多好公司塞钱到你的口袋你 都视而不见，一打开门就是10个亿，一打开门明天又10个亿，大家对这些都视而不见。当好公司被众人 抛弃的时候，就变好股票了。" 今年的A股能到多少点？李大霄谈到，现在是飞速地在涨胖，4200点这个位置，现在部分股票已经有瓶 颈了，但是要留意，IPO现在还没有大规模地开放，减持还没有大规模地运行，增发还没有大规模地增 发，还有反向机制，我们现在还没有快速地推进。 他强调，四大力量其实是有制约作用的，现在是救市救起来的市场，千万要知道这个本质。上市公司质 量的提升任重而道远，现在加大股东的分红任重而道远，市值的管理任重而道远。 所以，长钱怎么进 ...

周三，A股高位盘整，早盘一路上扬收复昨日失地，但午后受突发消息影响，高位出现回调。根据交易所数据，1月14日收盘，上证指数跌0.31%报4126.09 点，深证成指涨0.56%，创业板指涨0.82%，沪深300跌0.4%，科创50涨2.13%。 沪深两市2562股上涨，2494股下跌，127股持平，合计成交额3.94万亿元，再创历史新高，逼近4万亿天量，较前一交易日放量约2904.18亿元。 徐小明提到，对于昨天的回落，当时说无法判定规模，今天上午就基本吃掉了昨天的调整。今天的回落，结论也一样，各周期都没有顶部结构，价格也距离 趋势比较远，无法判定高点，所以无法判定高点的级别，这个回落随时有可能结束。 徐小明认为，市场已经很强了，不能要求其更强了。知足者，常乐。 风险提示：此文章不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 资金方面，大盘主力资金净流出889.40亿元，互联网服务主力资金净流入67.59亿元居首，其次是软件开发、化学原料、贵金属、综合行业；电网设备主力资 金净流出71.31亿元居首，其次是消费电子、半导体、银行、通用设备。 针对突发调整 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that strong innovation capabilities, supportive policies, ample liquidity, and potential inflows from domestic and international institutional investors are expected to support the Chinese stock market for another prosperous year in 2026 [1] - UBS believes that the attractiveness of Chinese assets will further increase in 2026, positioning China as an important incremental market for international capital diversification [1] - Despite some macroeconomic challenges in 2026, the overall outlook for the Chinese stock market remains positive, particularly if the innovation sector continues to thrive [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of valuation, the Chinese stock market is still attractive relative to global markets, with further room for valuation recovery and upward movement [2] - There is an increasing interest from foreign capital in the Chinese stock market, alongside continuous domestic capital accumulation, which will provide ongoing support for the market [2] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is recovering, with valuations improving but not reaching overheating levels, and the leverage ratio remains reasonable and healthy [2] Group 3 - A-share earnings are expected to accelerate with a year-on-year growth of 8% in 2026, primarily driven by the non-financial sector, which will be a key support for the stock market [2] - The overall attitude towards A-shares for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for further advancements in the market [3]

2023年8月，沪深北交易所将融资保证金比例从100%降低至80%，融资规模和交易额稳步上升。近期， 融资交易明显活跃，市场流动性相对充裕，根据法定的逆周期调节安排，适度提高融资保证金比例回归 100%，有助于适当降低杠杆水平，切实保护投资者合法权益，促进市场长期稳定健康发展。 市场交易火爆，午间监管发布新规为融资交易降温。 1月14日，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时 的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：孙杰 1月14日，A股单边上行，沪指涨逾1%剑指4200点，创业板指大涨逾2%，市场逾4700股上涨。A股半日 成交2.25万亿元。 需要说明的是，此次调整仅限于新开融资合约，调整实施前已存续的融资合约及其展期仍按照调整前的 相关规定执行。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expert predictions are based on probabilities rather than certainties, and the market often misinterprets these insights as definitive forecasts [1][4] - The analysis of the potential for a market peak in the second half of the year is linked to four key factors: Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic industrial product prices (PPI), RMB exchange rate, and capital flows [1][6] - The current market environment presents both opportunities and risks, with external favorable conditions and internal recovery providing a window for investment, while uncertainties and inflation pressures pose potential threats [3][7] Group 2 - Historical context shows that market cycles are influenced by various factors, and the prediction of a peak in the second half of the year is based on the convergence of macroeconomic indicators [6][9] - The importance of a stable policy environment is highlighted, as it is crucial for market predictability and coherent reform paths, which can support investor confidence [7][9] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamentals and valuations rather than being swayed by short-term market trends, emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies [3][11]

Group 1: Exchange Settlement Overview - The estimated "pending settlement" amount for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, accumulated from early 2022 to November 2025[1] - The willingness of export enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to improve in 2025 due to the RMB entering an appreciation cycle and strong performance of Chinese financial assets[1] - By the end of 2026, if 20% of the pending settlement is realized, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth[1] Group 2: Impact on Liquidity and Market - Enterprise settlement essentially converts foreign exchange assets into RMB deposits, affecting the balance sheets of central banks, commercial banks, and enterprises[1] - The relationship between M1 growth and PPI typically shows that M1 growth leads PPI growth by 2-3 quarters, but the current M1 increase may have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand[1] - High-risk enterprises may channel some of the funds from settlements into the stock market, potentially providing incremental capital to the A-share market[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, potential data distortion from third-party sources, and the possibility of measurement deviations[1] - The analysis indicates that while M1 growth is expected, its direct influence on corporate profitability may be limited due to the different driving factors compared to previous cycles[1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a correction after a period of increase, but there is optimism for the first quarter of the year due to overall liquidity easing, which is expected to drive up market valuations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei expresses a positive outlook for A-shares in the first quarter, attributing this to overall liquidity easing that will promote valuation increases [1] - For the entire year of 2026, an increase in overall earnings combined with a valuation recovery is expected to further drive A-shares upward [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - UBS Global Financial Markets Department head Fang Dongming highlights strong innovation capabilities, supportive policies, ample liquidity, and potential inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors as key factors that will support another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market [1]

核心观点 正文 转 载请 注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 过去几年，中国出口企业呈现明显的"屯汇不结"倾向。2025年年初开始，随着人民币步入升值周期、中 国资产重估等，企业结汇意愿回升。近期人民币兑美元升破7.0，且主流预期认为人民币将继续升值，这 将进一步激发企业结汇情绪，给流动性和市场带来积极影响。 企业"待结汇盘"约有9300亿美元，2025年企业结汇意愿上升。 使用"货物贸易项下涉外收付款顺 差-货物贸易的结售汇顺差"这一指标来估算企业的待结汇规模，可发现2022年年初到2025年11 月，出口企业共累积了9300亿美元的外汇未结汇。2025年出口企业"屯汇不结"的现象出现改善， 原因是人民币步入升值周期、中国金融资产表现亮眼等。2026年企业结汇意愿预计还将上升，和人 民币升值形成良性互动。 企业结汇对货币流动性的影响。 企业结汇本质上是将外汇资产转换为人民币银行存款，可能会影响 央行、商业银行和企业的资产负债表。其中，是否影响基础货币量的关键在于商业银行是否会将外 汇出售给央行。2015年之前外汇占款是央行投放基础货币的重要渠道，但2015年以后银行结售汇与 央行口径外汇占款不再 ...