美联储理事米兰认为，CPI数据要等到下次FOMC会议之后才会公布。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Long-term Perspective on Price Stability - The high growth rate of productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is a key factor restricting medium-term price stability, and a decline in productive investment is a prerequisite for achieving this stability [1] - In October, economic data continued to support this view, with retail sales and service production growth rates falling by approximately 2-3 percentage points compared to the peak in May, while infrastructure and real estate growth rates dropped by over 10 percentage points [1] - Manufacturing growth saw the most significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 15 percentage points, indicating a faster clearing pace in midstream investments compared to the overall sector [1] Group 2: Current Understanding of CPI Data - The October CPI data exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previously anticipated -0.1% [2] - The unexpected CPI increase is primarily attributed to fluctuations in food prices and gold, which together accounted for approximately 0.2 percentage points of the CPI change [2] - Despite the CPI increase, it is deemed unsustainable, as the underlying factors contributing to this rise are considered temporary and unlikely to persist [3] Group 3: Economic Sentiment and Policy Expectations - Current economic data indicates that essential consumption and service consumption are closely aligned with economic sentiment, while productive investment, infrastructure, and real estate sectors are lagging behind [4] - Essential consumption growth, excluding highly subsidized durable goods, showed an improvement to 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% previously, indicating a stable performance [5] - Service consumption, measured by retail sales growth in the service sector, recorded a cumulative increase of 5.3% from January to October, slightly up from 5.2% [6] - The expectation is that policies will likely maintain continuity and may even be moderately intensified to stabilize economic sentiment [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite warnings from the White House, the CPI and employment data for October are expected to be released soon, although the accuracy may be compromised due to government shutdown disruptions [1] Group 1: Economic Data - The government shutdown has affected data collection, but statistical agencies can still use retrospective questions in household employment surveys and more estimation methods for inflation indicators [1] - October's CPI data may be "less accurate than usual" due to the disruptions caused by the government shutdown [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Federal Reserve - Citigroup economists anticipate that labor market data will remain weak, which could lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, January, and March [1]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【10月24日，加拿大蒙特利尔银行分析师称政府停摆影响美联储政策预期至下周后】分析师指出，因政 府停摆持续，9月CPI数据发布巩固了12月降息预期。美国利率市场基调已确立，预计利率将从当前水 平逐步下行。 ...

Core Insights - The release of the September CPI data in the United States has led to positive movements in major stock index futures, with Dow Jones futures rising by 0.61%, S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.75%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up by 0.98% [1] Market Reactions - Dow Jones index futures increased by 0.61% following the CPI data release [1] - S&P 500 index futures saw a rise of 0.75% [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures experienced a gain of 0.98% [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has shown a positive trend, rising above 0.6500, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6505, reflecting a 0.28% increase. This rise is attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and China [1] - US President Trump indicated that implementing comprehensive tariffs on China is not sustainable and expressed hope for a high-quality agreement between the two nations. However, he warned of a potential 155% tariff if negotiations fail, making the upcoming US-China trade talks a focal point for the market [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, with the Senate failing to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, indicating a continued legislative deadlock [1] Group 2 - Market attention is shifting towards the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which may further influence the AUD's performance [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has gained some bullish momentum, supported by the stability of the current support level at 0.6475. However, the negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues to limit recovery opportunities in the near term [2] - The AUD/USD has failed to break through the key resistance level of 0.6535, with a lack of new catalysts suggesting a potential for continued volatility in the short term. Analysts have identified support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor upcoming catalysts [2]

据报道，美联储理事沃勒表示，目前各项数据都在传递同一个信号，即劳动力市场表现不佳；CPI数据 将对即将召开的会议大有帮助；如果通胀抬头后又回落，这不应影响货币政策；美联储需要降息，但需 谨慎为之；对即将召开的会议上的25个基点降息持开放态度。 ...

【下周重要期货数据和事件一览】10月13日待定，中国将公布9月贸易帐数据，国内成品油开启新一轮 调价窗口，欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告。 10月14日16:00，IEA公布月度原油市场报告；当日待定， Conab公布巴西2025/26年度谷物产量调查结果。 10月15日9:30，中国公布9月CPI年率、月率；20:30， 美国公布9月季调后CPI月率、核心CPI月率，未季调CPI年率、核心CPI年率。 10月15日待定，公布 ITS/AmSpec/SGS10月1 - 15日马棕油出口数据，以及全球8月WBMS金属市场供需状况。 10月16日 2:00，美联储公布状况褐皮书。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of October 9, the gold ETF holdings amounted to 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot gold price closed at $3975.89 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.58%, with an intraday high of $4057.76 and a low of $3944.29 [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Statistics - Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September CPI data, although the specific release date is uncertain and will not be on the originally scheduled October 15 [3] - The Bureau has halted all operations during the funding interruption, which delayed the release of the non-farm payroll report [3] - Some employees have been recalled to complete the report preparation, and the decision to release the data is linked to the annual Social Security cost adjustment process [3][4] - The delay in the September price data may postpone the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustments [3]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 报道：美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布9月CPI数据。 风险提示及免责条款 ...