当前中美之间的博弈已超越贸易范畴，延伸至科技、金融与地缘战略多个层面。中国通过稳步推进技术 自主与深化国际伙伴关系，逐步削弱美国在关键领域的主导地位。 特朗普近日发表公开信，要求北约国家停止进口俄罗斯石油并对中国商品加征高额关税，声称可借此结 束乌克兰战争，实则意在联合围堵中俄。墨西哥曾宣布拟对中国汽车加征50%关税，但在中方商务部警 告将反制后，墨总统迅速改口称愿通过谈判解决分歧。与此同时，中国在多领域展开回应：对美国芯片 出口管制发起调查，中芯国际推进国产DUV光刻机测试，并将大豆订单从美国转向南美国家。特朗普 试图营造西方一致对华的局面，但欧洲国家并未积极响应。相反，巴西拒接白宫电话并签下来自中国的 咖啡订单，俄罗斯与伊朗在能源贸易中扩大使用人民币结算，中国则持续减持美债。这些动向反映出美 国单边施压的效果有限，反而促使更多国家转向多元合作。 ...

这一事件的影响在于，停薪可能动摇美军的士气与公众对政府的信任。你让那些为国家捍卫安全的军人先断薪，这传递出的是什么信号？不仅会引发军心不 稳，也会让外界看到美国的弱点。 STATE a To To Casting 15 t 2017 特朗普的算盘 特朗普表面上坚持不妥协，口口声声不求预算中的支持者，但他绝不会没有后手。实际上，这场停摆和混乱局面正为特朗普在外交上制造了 一种紧迫感——有困境就有谈判的筹码。 美国政府已停摆多日，国内的混乱局面不断曝出，令人意外的是，美军也深受其累：按时发工资都成了问题。特朗普口口声声说要"削繁就简"，但实际上， 他似乎将赌注押在了对华博弈上。那么他还剩下什么牌可打呢？ 政府关门的深远影响 政府关门带来的后果，比街头新闻报道的要严重得多。据观察者网报 道，美国各军种约有130万现役军人未能按时领取工资。一些军属甚至在清晨5点就开始排队领取救济粮，许多家庭的生活陷入了困境。 按理说，即便政府 停摆，美国军人也应继续获得"保障支付"，但这次似乎出现了空窗期。《战略与国际研究中心》指出，虽然军人仍在执行任务，但薪酬可能会被延迟，除非 国会出台特别立法来保障支付。 令人意外的是，在这段时 ...

Core Insights - Since 2022, China has cumulatively reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $309.6 billion, coinciding with a government shutdown crisis in the U.S. [1][7] - The U.S. government shutdown is a result of long-standing partisan divisions, leading to budgetary deadlocks that prevent funding [3][5] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury bond purchases by the Federal Reserve, due to inflationary pressures, has exacerbated the fiscal situation of the U.S. government [6][7] Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown - The shutdown is not an isolated incident but a culmination of ongoing political polarization, making it difficult for parties to reach a compromise on fiscal policies [5][6] - The shutdown has significant implications, including the suspension of government services and unpaid leave for federal employees [3][5] Group 2: China's Reduction of U.S. Treasury Bonds - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds is a strategic decision based on a thorough analysis of the current international economic landscape, reflecting concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and monetary policy uncertainty [8][10] - The cumulative reduction includes $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, $57.3 billion in 2024, and $28.3 billion in early 2025, bringing China's remaining U.S. Treasury holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009 [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The shift in China's investment strategy is influenced by the changing global economic landscape and increasing tensions in U.S.-China relations, prompting a reassessment of its previous reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds [10][12] - China's growing economic and international influence positions it as a significant player in global trade and finance, which is recognized by U.S. officials, including former President Trump, who called for negotiations with China during the shutdown [12][13]

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China in the rare earth sector has been intense, with the US military industry heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, making it difficult to find alternative sources [1] - In early 2025, China implemented stricter export license management for seven categories of heavy rare earths, prioritizing national security and industrial interests, which caught the US military industry off guard [1][4] - The US is accelerating its supply chain diversification efforts, seeking sources in Australia and Canada, but these projects are costly and time-consuming, making it challenging to address immediate needs [1] Group 2 - Pakistan has emerged as a new hope for the US due to its rich rare earth resources, although it has long struggled with funding and technological development [1][3] - In August 2025, the US and Pakistan began discussions on critical mineral cooperation, with a focus on a $1 billion investment in the copper-gold mine in Balochistan [3] - A $500 million agreement was signed, outlining a three-step plan to export light rare earths, improve mining infrastructure, and facilitate technology transfer to establish a complete industrial chain in Pakistan [3] Group 3 - China's rare earth policy remains stable, with export license controls implemented in 2023 and further refined in 2025, emphasizing dynamic adjustment and green development [4] - The cooperation with the US is seen as a pragmatic survival strategy for Pakistan, providing short-term cash flow and aiding in industrial upgrades amid significant economic pressures [4][5] - While the agreement offers the US some relief in its supply chain challenges, it does not fully resolve the issues, particularly for the F-35 and drone production that heavily depend on rare earth magnets [5]

那么，中国会对巴基斯坦与美国的合作感到担忧吗？其实，中国并不太担心。中国不仅拥有丰富的稀土资源，还掌握了完整的产业链。从开采到提纯，再到 制造高纯度稀土材料和军工、电子产品零部件，中国的产业链早已非常成熟。尽管其他国家也在努力开发稀土资源，但要想在短期内搭建出一个与中国竞争 的产业链，几乎不可能。西方国家即使发现了稀土矿，也难以快速追赶中国在这一领域的技术和经验。 而美国这次主动找上门，不仅仅是想要购买稀土，更是带着5亿美元的投资和后续的技术支持。美国提供的资金、设备以及技术团队对于巴基斯坦来说，简 直是雪中送炭，尤其是在巴基斯坦最缺启动资金的时候。这笔交易看似能帮助巴基斯坦缓解经济困境，但巴基斯坦也清楚，这步棋风险不小。它既有与中国 的长期合作，比如中巴经济走廊等基础设施项目，也在与美国的短期合作中寻求急需的资金支持。巴基斯坦试图在两者之间找到平衡，但面对如此艰难的经 济形势，它选择了先解决眼前的问题。 那么，美国为何对巴基斯坦的稀土资源如此急迫？其实，问题出在美国的军工业。近些年来，美国的军工企业对中国稀土的依赖越来越大，无论是导弹系统 还是战斗机引擎，都需要大量稀土。今年年初，中国对部分稀土产品实施了出 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of recent policies by the Trump administration is to alleviate U.S. fiscal pressure, as evidenced by the significant increase in interest payments on national debt from $432.6 billion in FY2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY2025 [1][5][9] - The administration's push for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is aimed at reducing debt servicing costs, which have increased by approximately $700 billion since Trump's first term [1][7][9] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts potentially saving around $412 billion to $1.93 trillion in interest payments, this is insufficient to cover the existing fiscal gap of about $400 billion, prompting the administration to seek additional revenue sources [2][15][19] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies, including the "Gold Card" initiative and increased H1B fees, are part of a broader strategy to generate revenue and address the fiscal shortfall [15][17] - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has deteriorated, with the administration advocating for monetary policy to support fiscal needs, which may undermine the Fed's independence and affect the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2][17][19] - As a result of these policies, capital is expected to flow out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and Chinese assets, as the dollar's creditworthiness is likely to weaken [3][19][21] Group 3 - The anticipated decline in interest rates and the weakening of the dollar may lead to increased investment in non-U.S. markets, particularly in Chinese assets, as the yuan is expected to appreciate due to narrowing interest rate differentials [3][19][21] - The Chinese capital market is expected to benefit from these trends, with a solid long-term upward trajectory supported by favorable domestic policies and the ongoing global shift towards non-U.S. assets [21][22][23] - The current geopolitical landscape and the strategic positioning of China in global markets are likely to enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the A-share market [21][22][23]

现在，欧盟已经成为"囊中之物"，特朗普心满意足，他对中国的态度已经缓和，还多次表达访华意愿。而作为"对华鹰派"的美国国务卿鲁比 奥，在与中方交手6个月后，在近日表示"虽然中美还存在很多分歧，双方的争执每天都在发生，但我们已经进入某种战略稳定期"。他还强 调，如果中美进行"全面贸易冲突"，不仅全球会面临巨大负面影响，美国的经济也将遭受重创。鲁比奥这番话没有说错，因为美国已经"去工 业化"，成为了一个金融国，与全球最大工业国中国有极强的互补性。中美博弈也跟美苏冷战不同，后者是"死斗"，一方获胜注定会让另一方 的生存模式崩溃，但前者完全可以合作。 但就在这个时候，一个中国代表团飞抵加拿大，给面临美国35%关税的卡尼政府送上"助攻"。在7月30日，中国副外长马朝旭率团访加，并在 会谈中向加方承诺：中加的共同利益规模庞大，完全可以成为共同发展的伙伴。值得注意的是，卡尼在上任后，就站在了特朗普的对立面，实 施了多项反制美国的措施。不过，卡尼一直把欧盟视为最大合作伙伴，对中国的态度很强硬，还实施了一系列对华制裁。但现在，欧盟已经自 身难保，加拿大除了中国再无后路。而在这个时候，中方向加拿大伸出合作之手，也是直插美国的后院进 ...

Group 1 - China's Prime Minister Li Qiang announced that China will not seek any new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, reflecting a proactive stance in the ongoing US-China rivalry [1][3] - The US has pressured China for three years regarding its developing country status, arguing that as the world's second-largest economy, China should not enjoy preferential treatment [2][3] - China's strategic response effectively neutralized US criticisms, allowing it to maintain its core interests while demonstrating flexibility in its approach to international trade [3][4] Group 2 - This move by China serves three strategic objectives: it eliminates a key point of attack from the US, allows China to participate in global rule-making on more equal terms, and showcases its role as a responsible major power [4][7] - The timing of this adjustment is significant, as it coincides with a deadlock in WTO reforms, potentially revitalizing discussions and enhancing China's international standing [4][7] - China's average tariff has decreased to 4.4%, nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating its commitment to aligning with global trade standards [4]

Exchange Rate Projections - Under the baseline scenario, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to approach 7.0 by the end of the year[1] - In an optimistic scenario, with extraordinary counter-cyclical policies, the new equilibrium for USD/CNY could be around 6.7[1] Monetary Policy Implications - A potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points (BP) by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Q4 may not delay RMB appreciation but could intensify it[1] - The current market does not fully anticipate a rate cut, meaning the existing exchange rate does not factor in this possibility[1] Economic Context - The recent RMB appreciation is not driven by strong economic fundamentals but rather by expectations and a self-fulfilling cycle of currency appreciation[1][10] - The Chinese government's debt cost is currently lower than economic growth rates, supporting fiscal expansion and the exchange rate[1] Investment Insights - RMB appreciation is expected to benefit Chinese stocks, with historical data showing that a 1% appreciation typically leads to a 2.73% increase in A-shares and a 4.52% increase in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The current RMB appreciation cycle has seen A-shares rise by an average of 8.31% and Hong Kong stocks by 10.52% since April 8, 2025[6] Risks and Considerations - Risks include misinterpretation of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions, and potential increases in U.S. tariffs[50]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around a $350 billion special economic agreement proposed by the U.S., which includes a significant cash investment requirement from South Korea [2] - South Korea's Foreign Minister criticized the agreement as unfair, highlighting that it requires South Korea to invest $350 billion, which is 84% of its foreign exchange reserves [2] - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed concerns that the agreement could hinder the country's development for the next decade, citing lower returns on investments in the U.S. compared to domestic projects [2] Group 2 - There is a growing public outcry in South Korea against the agreement, with protests occurring in Seoul, indicating a rare consensus among political parties against perceived economic colonialism [4] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce emphasized that there are no exceptions for South Korea, as Japan has already signed the agreement, reflecting a unilateral approach by the U.S. [4] - The situation illustrates a shift in international relations, with South Korea attempting to balance its security alliance with the U.S. while seeking economic opportunities with China, which has been its largest trading partner for 18 consecutive years [4]