从实质上看，最高法院裁定总统的大部分全球关税政策无效，这一决定值得欢迎。然而，尽管法院的判 决在宪法层面上站得住脚，但它本身并不能弥补美国转向保护主义已经造成的损害，也无法阻止更糟糕 的情况发生。 避免造成进一步损害完全取决于政府和国会。除非他们选择将稳定放在首位，否则事态可能迅速恶化， 演变成一场危机。 最高法院以6比3的投票结果裁定，总统2025年强加高额关税的行为超越了其权限。法院裁定，政府援引 的《国际紧急经济权力法》在赋予其"监管"贸易的权力时，并未明确授权采取此类措施。然而，其他一 些关键问题仍未得到解决，例如白宫能否利用其他法律手段取代关税，或者能否继续以所谓的紧急状态 为由，为其广泛的行政措施辩护。 此刻，这样的建议听起来或许有些异想天开。但在否定它之前，不妨考虑一下另一种可能性。 替代关税的计划已在进行中。针对裁决，总统表示将根据1974年《贸易法》第122条，对全球商品征收 15%的新关税，并启动调查，以期利用其他授权征收更多税费。这使得前景依然不明朗。特别是，那些 已缴纳了现已非法关税的企业将寻求赔偿。是否退款以及如何退款的问题已被发回下级法院——这关系 到约1700亿美元的政府收入。 ...

这周五注定会成为经济史上浓重的一笔。美国最高法院做出了一个标志性的裁决：推翻了唐纳德·特朗 普在过去一年间几乎对所有贸易伙伴征收的多数关税。尽管最高法院的多数席位由特朗普提名的保守派 法官占据，但大法官们在判决书中对总统的越权行为做出了严正的回应。特朗普曾坚称自己拥有几乎不 受限制的单方面征税权，能够自主决定关税的高度、时长和范围。然而，最高法院明确指出，这种所谓 的绝对权力根本不在宪法框架之内，任何行使这种权力都必须获得国会的明确授权。这一判决无疑对行 政权力的扩张做出了强有力的制约，这对于全球来说无疑是一剂振奋人心的强心针。 然而，这并不意味着全球贸易会瞬间回到所谓的特朗普前时代。特朗普很快便宣布了自己的报复性措 施：他打算利用另一项法律条款，针对全球征收10%的普遍关税，试图绕过最高法院判决的法律适用范 围。同时，针对钢铁、汽车等特定产业的关税依然维持不变。某种程度上，新的关税壁垒甚至比旧有的 更为激进。尽管如此，最高法院这一裁决依然具有不可估量的价值。它如同一块坚实的法律基石，修复 了美国制度早已破碎的废墟，也让曾经丧失的制度信任再次回到了公众的视野当中。正是这种稳定性， 才是美国能够开展商业合作、吸 ...

就在美国最高法院宣布特朗普的关税政策违法后，全球未曾料到，这位总统却在极短的时间内再次对全球加税，这一举动的背后究竟隐藏了什么深意？与此 同时，特朗普还紧锣密鼓地敲定了访华行程。有媒体透露，他此行已经下了大赌注，这究竟意味着什么？ 不久前，特朗普宣布对全球加征10%的进口关税，随后又迅速将税率提高至15%，释放出一个强烈的信号：只要特朗普仍在美国总统的位置上，全球的关税 战就将继续。而特朗普此次的加税举动，显然并非一时冲动。第一次加税后，他观察到金银市场和美股的表现都出现大幅上涨，唯独美元和工业金属下跌， 这与他预期的结果吻合。也正因如此，他才敢毫不犹豫地在第二天再次加税。当然，特朗普的个性使得他对美国最高法院的裁定愤愤不平，这也让他在引述 1974年《贸易法》第122条时没能注意到关税上限为15%。直到旁边的官员提醒他时，他才急忙把税率调至15%。与此同时，特朗普也已经确定了将于3月31 日访问中国的计划，有媒体评价这次行程是他下的大赌注。 然而，他并没有引用《贸易法》第301或第122条款，而是宣布国家紧急状态以绕过国会。这一举动表明，特朗普面临的财政危机已经到了不得不采取非常手 段的地步。美国的财政已经 ...

原标题：《美大法官"大战"总统，6：3裁定特朗普关税违法：1.4万亿美元收入"落空"，或撕开美国财政千亿黑洞！特朗普闪电反击》 每经记者|兰素英 宋欣悦 岳楚鹏 每经编辑|何小桃 王嘉琦 杜波 当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院以6：3裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的大规模关税违法。 这场司法终槌直接让美国未来十年超1.4万亿美元关税预期收入"落空"，还留下1750亿美元的退税悬案。千亿财政窟窿亟待填补，美债收益率应声上涨。 面对裁决，特朗普政府紧急唤醒沉睡52年的法律条款，宣布开征10%的"全球进口关税"。 当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以6：3的投票结果作出重磅裁决：特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模关税措施违 法。 这一纸裁决，不仅瞬间叫停了多项加征关税，让未来十年超1.4万亿美元的联邦财政预期收入化为泡影，更直接撕开了一个巨大的财政"黑洞"——高达 1750亿美元的潜在退税悬案正步步紧逼。 面对这突如其来的巨额资金窟窿，有分析警告称，紧迫的短期流动性风险将迫使美国财政部发行更多债券来填补缺口，这恐将直接推高美债收益率。 而与此同时，白宫已紧急重启沉睡 ...

每经记者｜兰素英 宋欣悦 岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜何小桃 王嘉琦 杜波 当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院以6:3裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的大规模关税违法。 这场司法终槌直接让美国未来十年超1.4万亿美元关税预期收入"落空"，还留下1750亿美元的退税悬案。千亿财政窟窿亟待填补，美债收益率应声上涨。 面对裁决，特朗普政府紧急唤醒沉睡52年的法律条款，宣布开征10%的"全球进口关税"。 当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以6:3的投票结果作出重磅裁决：特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模关税措施违 法。 这一纸裁决，不仅瞬间叫停了多项加征关税，让未来十年超1.4万亿美元的联邦财政预期收入化为泡影，更直接撕开了一个巨大的财政"黑洞"——高达 1750亿美元的潜在退税悬案正步步紧逼。 面对这突如其来的巨额资金窟窿，有分析警告称，紧迫的短期流动性风险将迫使美国财政部发行更多债券来填补缺口，这恐将直接推高美债收益率。 而与此同时，白宫已紧急重启沉睡52年的法律条款展开反击。 一场由司法裁决引爆的财政危机与全球贸易震荡，才刚刚开始。 司法终槌： 1.4万亿美元关税体系"一夜坍 ...

Group 1 - Japan's government net debt is approaching 700 trillion yen (approximately 31.6 trillion RMB), with liabilities reaching 1,483.3 trillion yen against assets of 783.4 trillion yen, marking a historical record of insolvency [3] - The fiscal crisis is directly linked to Prime Minister Kishi's hardline stance towards China, particularly regarding Taiwan, which he has tied to Japan's national survival [3] - China's countermeasures against Japan include travel warnings and trade restrictions, leading to a 47% cancellation rate of flights from China to Japan and significant declines in tourism revenue [6] Group 2 - The export controls imposed by China on over 900 dual-use items, including critical resources like rare earths and semiconductor materials, have severely impacted Japan's high-end manufacturing sector, causing production halts at companies like Toyota [8] - The economic downturn is translating into political pressure, with former Japanese Prime Ministers criticizing Kishi's actions as reckless and potentially harmful to national interests [8] - Japan's economy is already vulnerable due to long-term issues such as aging population and weak domestic consumption, with government debt reaching 260% of GDP, far exceeding international warning levels [10] Group 3 - Kishi's economic stimulus measures, including a supplementary budget of 21.7 trillion yen, have led to soaring bond yields and increased interest payments, consuming nearly 40% of fiscal tax revenue [10] - Japan's high dependency on China for trade, at 40%, means that China's countermeasures are particularly damaging to key industries such as automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [10] - The ongoing diplomatic isolation and economic contraction could lead Japan into a vicious cycle, with the looming threat of national credit bankruptcy as the debt crisis deepens [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure due to concerns over Japan's fiscal health, despite expectations of coordinated buying by the US and Japan to support the currency. The upcoming elections and the government's economic stimulus plans further complicate the situation [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Japanese government debt now accounts for approximately 230% of GDP, the highest among developed countries [5]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's campaign for early elections is based on expanding economic stimulus measures, which may weaken the effectiveness of any currency intervention [1][5]. - The market's concern over Japan's fiscal management has intensified, leading to a significant sell-off in the stock market and a decline in the yen against the euro and Swiss franc [5]. Group 2: Currency Intervention - Historical experience suggests that actual market interventions may have limited impact, especially in the context of Japan's fiscal crisis concerns [1][6]. - The yen's depreciation has prompted discussions of potential intervention, with expectations that a breach of the 160 yen per dollar mark could trigger the first round of intervention [4]. - Despite the potential for US-Japan coordinated intervention, the effectiveness is expected to be limited, primarily due to a lack of investor confidence in Japan's fiscal management capabilities [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Fund manager Toshinobu Chiba indicated that if Takaichi wins decisively and pushes for more stimulus, the yen could fall to 180 per dollar, a level not seen since 1986 [3]. - The recent spike in Japanese government bond yields has not supported the yen as expected, indicating a disconnect between bond yields and currency value [2][5]. - The upcoming elections are seen as a critical moment for Takaichi's economic agenda, with the potential for significant market reactions based on the election outcome [1][5].

Group 1 - The core issue is the growing tension between the U.S. and China, highlighted by China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, which has dropped to $682.6 billion, the lowest since September 2008, while foreign investors overall increased their holdings by $112.8 billion [3][5] - China's decision to sell off U.S. debt is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with the instability of the U.S. economy, influenced by internal turmoil and external pressures [5][7] - The U.S. is concerned about maintaining alliances with traditional partners like Europe, Japan, and South Korea, as these relationships are crucial for countering China's influence [9][11] Group 2 - The U.S. administration, particularly under Trump, is attempting to leverage higher returns on U.S. debt to attract foreign investment, while simultaneously facing a deteriorating debt and fiscal crisis [7] - Despite ongoing tensions, the U.S. still relies on China for critical resources, indicating a complex interdependence between the two nations [11] - The upcoming visit of Trump to China is seen as a pivotal moment that could either ease tensions or complicate negotiations further, depending on the outcomes of discussions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting views on the state of the U.S. economy, particularly in the automotive sector, highlighting President Trump's invitation to Chinese and Japanese companies to invest in the U.S. despite previous high tariffs on foreign vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Trump's Policy Shift - Trump welcomed foreign car manufacturers to invest in the U.S., signaling a shift from his previous high tariff policies aimed at restricting foreign car brands [1][3]. - The intention behind Trump's tariffs was not to completely block foreign investment but to compel foreign brands to establish production lines in the U.S., thereby creating local jobs and sourcing local materials [3]. Group 2: Industrial Hollowing - The U.S. is experiencing industrial hollowing, characterized by job losses, tax revenue decline, and weakened supply chains, prompting the government to propose a re-industrialization strategy [5]. - The shift of the U.S. economic focus towards finance, IT, and services has led to a lack of long-term industrial investment, exacerbated by high labor costs and stringent regulations [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges - Despite short-term gains from re-industrialization efforts, the fundamental issues of the U.S. economy, such as reliance on debt and political gridlock, remain unresolved [5][7]. - Elon Musk's assertion that the U.S. government is fundamentally flawed reflects the deep-rooted challenges facing the economy, including a growing national debt and the influence of interest groups [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver and gold prices, with silver reaching a historic high of $70 per ounce, surpassing the price of crude oil [1] - Key triggers for the surge in silver prices include signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding a shift to loose monetary policy and comments from New York Fed President John Williams that laid the groundwork for a potential rate cut in December [1] - The market is signaling that traders are betting on central banks in Western countries resorting to money printing to dilute debt, leading investors to seek assets not controlled by any central bank or government [2] Group 2 - The current economic stability relies heavily on public trust in the value of currency, which is now showing signs of erosion, prompting central banks to be cautious [3] - The last time silver prices were significantly higher than oil was in the early 1980s, which preceded a period of severe inflation, rising interest rates, market crashes, and economic recession [3] - The potential for a fiscal crisis is becoming increasingly realistic, as the dynamics of currency devaluation relative to gold could impact industrial metals and the broader economic supply chain [2][3]