（文章来源：新华财经） 沪银主力合约日内涨超5%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The supply of domestic corn is stable, but there is still a risk of price decline due to the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China. The price of starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short term [4][7][8]. - The trading strategy suggests going short on 03 corn and going long on 07 and 05 corn at low prices. An arbitrage strategy of 3 - 7 corn reverse spread is also recommended. For options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is proposed [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of corn and corn starch futures contracts show different trends. For example, C2601 closed at 2257 with a 0.13% increase, and CS2605 closed at 2577 with a 0.19% increase. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 increased by 61.30%, and that of C2605 decreased by 16.07% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn and starch in different regions are stable, with no price changes on the day. The basis of corn and starch in various regions shows different values. For example, the basis of corn in Qinggang is - 164, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 153 [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and starch in different periods and between different varieties also changed. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 14 with a 2 - point increase, and the spread of CS09 - C09 is 302 with a 2 - point decrease [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn is rebounding from the bottom but still fluctuating at a low level. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is falling, while that in North China is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast China is expanding. The demand for domestic breeding is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of corn in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased, with the current inventory at 99.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 3.2%, and a year - on - year decrease of 24.9%. The price of starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream stocking. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is fluctuating at the bottom following the trend of corn [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: There is support for 03 US corn at 420 cents per bushel. It is recommended to go long on 07 and 05 corn at low prices [10]. - **Arbitrage**: A 3 - 7 corn reverse spread is recommended [11]. - **Options Strategy**: A short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is proposed [12]. 3.4 Corn Options - On February 4, 2026, the closing price of the C2605 - P - 2240.DCE option contract was 24.50, and the closing price of the C2603 - P - 2200.DCE option contract was 3.50 [14]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures, showing the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, respectively [16][17][22].

| | | 20260204申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenvb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | | 18 | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1410.0 | | 1167.5 | 1245.5 | 1874. 0 | 1715.0 | 1784.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1397.5 | | 1141.5 | 1226.0 | 1840.0 | 1680. 5 | 1746.5 | | 楽時 | 12.5 | Ele | 26.0 | 19.5 | 34. 0 | 34.5 | 37.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 89% | स्त | 2. 28% | 1.59% | 1.85% | 2. 05% | 2.1 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 62.67 跌 50 点，5 月 64.40 跌 53 点，7 月 66.10 跌 45 点；成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 交约 9.0 万手。 郑棉总成交 447651 持仓 1011773。结算价 5 月 14675，9 月 14800，1 月 15185。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1月 29日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31级双 29含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 1150-1250 元/吨，提货价在 16050-16200 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | | 50-100 元/吨左右。 | | | | | 2、根据美国商业部数据显示，2025 年 11 月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调) ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1167.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.28%；焦炭主力合约 | | | | | J2605收于 1715.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.05%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 1172.0 | | | | | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.39%，焦炭主力合约收于 1725.0 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 | | | | | 2.58%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行将于 2 月 4 日开展 8000 亿元 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作，加量续作 1000 亿元， | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 为近四个月来首次加量续作。央行同时披露，1 月份公开市场国债买卖净投放 1000 亿元。 | | | 焦炭 | | 2、全国已有 30 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 19 元至 1770 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1770 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 13421 手至 23.1 万手，空头持仓减少 7190 手至 24.5 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 少 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 94.49 万吨，较上周减少 0.11 万吨，环比减 0.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、1 月 2 日印度 NFL 尿素进口招标，共收到 26 个供货商，总计 362 万吨投标量， 其中东海岸 159 ...

2026年02月04日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：2 月 3 日夜盘贵金属全面超跌反弹，国内与国际市场同步大涨。沪金主力收 | 1108.8 元/克，涨幅 | | 金 | 4.2%；沪银主力收 22393 元/千克，涨幅 5.93%。 | | | 属 | 基本面：美联储理事米兰称今年需要降息不止 100 | 个基点；美国众议院批准政府融资法案，将结束局部停摆； | | | 伊朗炮艇逼近挂美国旗油轮、接近美航母的伊无人机被美击落，原油跳涨。国内黄金 | ETF 流入 4.8 吨，COMEX | | | 黄金库存为 1107.9 吨，-4 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR | 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1087.1 吨， | | | 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12617.5 吨，-6 吨；上期所白银库存为 449.7 | 吨，-13 吨；iShares 白银 ETF | | | 持仓为 16546 吨，+1023 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for polysilicon on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has surged by 6%, reaching a price of 49,800 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The increase in polysilicon prices may indicate a rising demand in the solar energy sector, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - This price movement could impact the overall cost structure for solar panel manufacturers, potentially affecting their profit margins [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances are high. Under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, the expectation of a rush to ship in March, the expectation of an off - season in April, and the suppression of long - term contract prices, the 04 contract will fluctuate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. The upward space depends more on capital behavior. With the current basis of 300 points, beware of long - position capital driving up the price. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the bearish logic of the off - season and tax rebates. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical disturbances [3][30] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Contract Information - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1720.0, up 0.19%, with a basis of 72.1, a trading volume of 294, an open interest of 2339, and an open interest change of - 212 [2][29] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1184.6, down 3.46%, with a basis of 607.5, a trading volume of 32818, an open interest of 33806, and an open interest change of - 2075 [2][29] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1513.1, down 1.93%, with a basis of 279.0, a trading volume of 5944, an open interest of 12598, and an open interest change of 295 [2][29] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1607.9, up 0.06%, with a basis of 184.2, a trading volume of 1131, an open interest of 1450, and an open interest change of - 144 [2][29] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1130.0, up 0.67%, with a basis of 662.1, a trading volume of 2504, an open interest of 7884, and an open interest change of - 250 [2][29] 3.2 Month - spread Information - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 535.4, the value two days ago was 489.7, the value three days ago was 467.8, the daily change was 45.7, and the weekly change was 11.8 [2][29] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 328.5, the value two days ago was - 315.8, the value three days ago was - 326.3, the daily change was - 12.7, and the weekly change was - 80.2 [2][29] 3.3 Index Information - Spot (European route): Updated weekly on Mondays, as of 2026/2/2, the value was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from the previous period and down 4.86% from the period before the previous one [2][29] - SCFI (European route): Updated weekly on Fridays, as of 2026/1/30, the value was 1418 dollars/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period and down 4.83% from the period before the previous one [2][29] 3.4 European Route Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][31] 3.5 News - On 2/3, the Israeli army's chief of staff said that the Israeli army is in a "period of enhancing war preparedness" [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that Iran is willing to suspend its nuclear program, and senior US and Iranian officials are communicating directly via text messages. Senior US and Iranian officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions between the two countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and US envoy Witkoff are communicating directly via text messages. Sources said that Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program, which is regarded as a major concession. However, it prefers to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani recently met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran can agree to transport its enriched uranium inventory to Russia, similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that the US - Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to be held on Friday, and the US envoy has a busy schedule this week [4][31]