证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-20投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8044，基差268，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-19投资咨询部 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货8492，基差538，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日棕榈油港口库存38万吨，前值39万吨，环比-1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税问题影 响市场。棕榈油Y2509：7850-8250附近区间震荡 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-16投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8054，基差258，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. After the oils oscillated higher, the upward momentum was insufficient. There was a significant reduction in positions in the external market, and the domestic market returned to fundamentals [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan or 1.66% compared to the previous period - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118 yuan or 1.49% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or 1.50% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.27%, and the spot basis was P09 + 532 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.09%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 354 yuan, an increase of 28 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.15%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 184 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysian independent inspection agency Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 514,713 tons, a 14.21% increase compared to the same period last month - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 524,596 tons, a 6.63% increase compared to the same period last month - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 168.3418 million tons, an increase of 20.6205 million tons or 14% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.472 million tons or 0.3% month - on - month - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 47.6127 million hectares, an increase of 1.4631 million hectares or 3.2% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.097 million hectares or 0.2% month - on - month - The estimated soybean yield per hectare in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.54 tons, an increase of 334.7 kg or 10.5% year - on - year, and an increase of 2.7 kg or 0.1% month - on - month [2]

第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/5/13 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 油脂日报 1 / 5 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7792 | (22) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8172 | | | | 8142 | 8092 | | 350 | -10 | 380 | -20 | 300 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 7954 | (70) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8554 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, supported by the China-US tariff joint statement and the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, breaking through the trading range since mid - April. The Malaysian palm oil opened higher due to the strong external market but was later suppressed by the unexpectedly high inventory in the April data released by MPOB [6]. - Domestically, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising month - on - month with high supply pressure later. The short - term price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to decline, and the price will mainly follow the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to rise, but with uncertain medium - to - long - term imported rapeseed supply and the strong recent trend of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output reaches a record 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% due to Brazil's increased production. The global crushing volume is expected to increase by 3.3% to a record 366.46 million tons, led by Chinese demand. The global export is 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with Brazil's share rising. The ending inventory is estimated to be 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - In April, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 19.37% month - on - month to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month to 1.686 million tons, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month to 1.102 million tons [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's edible vegetable oil production is predicted to be 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous year. Among them, soybean oil production is 17.16 million tons and rapeseed oil production is 7.76 million tons, decreasing by 140,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively due to the decline in soybean and rapeseed imports. Peanut oil production is 4 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons due to better planting benefits and increased policy support. The predicted consumption of edible vegetable oil is the same as the previous year [3][4]. Fundamental Data Charts No information provided. Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans rose due to positive factors, and Malaysian palm oil's rise was suppressed by high inventory [6]. - Domestic: The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range; the domestic palm oil price follows the import cost; domestic rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA released its May report, with no adjustment to South American production and the US soybean yield maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre as in the February Outlook Forum, resulting in no significant change in the supply pattern [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,024.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 138 yuan or 1.75% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,814.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 34.00 yuan or 0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,378.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 23.00 yuan or 0.25% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of P09 + 506.00, a环比 decrease of 128.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 296.00, a环比 decrease of 64.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 152.00, a环比 decrease of 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 10 were 215,228 tons, a 1.9% increase from the 211,252 tons exported in the same period last month [2] US Soybean and Corn Information - In May, the expected US soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 4.338 billion bushels; the expected ending stocks are 295 million bushels, with a market expectation of 362 million bushels; the expected yield is 52.5 bushels per acre, in line with market expectations [2] - As of the week ending May 11, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, compared to 30% the previous week, 34% last year, and a five - year average of 37% [2] - The US corn planting rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared to 40% the previous week, 47% last year, and a five - year average of 56% [2] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - Global soybean exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [2] - Exports from major South American soybean - producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tons, offsetting the decline in US exports [2] - Argentina's soybean imports are expected to increase due to increased supply from neighboring countries, and import demand in countries such as China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria has also risen [2] - China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be 112 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the revised 2024/25 season expectation [2] - Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by the decline in US stocks [2] South American Soybean Production Forecast - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production at 49 million tons, while the market expected 49.25 million tons [2] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production at 169 million tons, while the market expected 169.17 million tons [2]

2025 年 5 月 13 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,886 | -0.28% | 8,022 | 1.72% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,848 | 0.87% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,377 | 0.24% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.83 | 2.59% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,50 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,886 | 涨跌幅 -0.28% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 7,940 | 涨跌幅 0.68% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,780 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,407 | 0.56% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,815 | 0.37% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 48.64 | 0.39% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,509 | 27,712 | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 棕榈油：产地兑现卖压，风险未完全释放 豆油：单边驱动不足，品种间偏强运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：产地卖压持续兑现，跟随原油小幅反弹，棕榈油 09 合约周跌幅 3.22%。 豆油：跟随油脂板块和国际油价波动为主，国内现货开机仍未完全放松，豆棕价差持续上涨，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.66%。 本周观点及逻辑： 豆油：国际豆油方面，资金继续以"美国优先"和扶持美豆的逻辑推高美盘油粕比交易，共和党众议 院提出 BTC 延期法案，多美豆油空 BMD 的逻辑持续成立。美豆油当下最大的利多不在于 RVO 公布数字高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 低，而在于即将公布前夕的风险溢价，并可能以此为由进行多轮炒作。国际油脂供应上暂时关注南美豆油 新作上市何时体现报价压力，国际豆棕价差持续高位、阿根廷豆油进入集中上市季节而当前排船较少，如 果 5-6 月难以保持 50 万吨以上的出口那么国际豆油将面临一定的卖压，进一步拖 ...