General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 9396 | 9394 | 9454 | 9280 | 9294 | -102 | -1.09% | 212511 | 188228 | -38522 | | P2601 | 9466 | 9480 | 9538 | 9350 | 9368 | -98 | -1.04% | 703708 | 444903 | 5591 | | Y2509 | 8582 | 8580 | 8634 | 8526 | 8540 | -47 | -0.49% | 109913 | 237228 | -23815 | | Y2601 | 8560 | 8596 | 8616 | 8502 | 8520 | -40 | -0.47% | 530688 | 705833 | -3966 | | 60910 | 10099 | 10060 | 10070 | 9824 | 9852 | -247 | -2.45% | 112790 | 2638 | -17929 | | Ol601 | 10104 | 10050 | 10064 | 9815 | 9840 | -264 | -2.61% | 500035 | 301480 | 18815 | [7] Market Analysis - Market sentiment cooled, and the high - level of oil and fat declined, especially the rapeseed oil 01 filled the gap of the gap - up opening. - Affected by policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired. Although there are sporadic news of rapeseed oil purchases from Dubai or Australian seeds, it is believed that it cannot fully make up for the supply gap from Canada. - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies of the United States and Brazil and the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, combined with the recovery of domestic demand, it is optimistic in the long - term. - The palm oil producing areas are still in the seasonal growth period, and the market expects the inventory to continue to increase in August. There may be a short - term correction, but the long - term view is bullish. [8] Industry News - According to data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons exported from July 1 - 10. - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada. The investigating authority preliminarily determined that there was dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada, the domestic rapeseed industry in China was materially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and material damage. Temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of a deposit will be implemented starting from August 14, 2025. [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low prices [1]. - For soybean oil, the U.S. soybeans are strong, and soybean oil will fluctuate at a high level [1]. Detailed Summaries from Different Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, (night session) 9,486 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; trading volume was 384,052 lots, a decrease of 58,978 lots, and open interest was 226,780 lots, a decrease of 43,883 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,592 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase, (night session) 8,554 yuan/ton with a -0.44% change; trading volume was 183,673 lots, an increase of 43,470 lots, and open interest was 261,043 lots, a decrease of 45,207 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 10,069 yuan/ton with a 2.72% increase, (night session) 9,976 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 298,318 lots, an increase of 27,033 lots, and open interest was 90,567 lots, a decrease of 26,912 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,435 ringgit/ton with a 0.80% increase, (night session) 4,436 ringgit/ton with a 0.02% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 53.40 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,380 yuan/ton, a price increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,820 yuan/ton, a price increase of 170 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 10,190 yuan/ton, a price increase of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,090 dollars/ton, a price increase of 10 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 44 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 228 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 121 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 574 yuan/ton, compared to 448 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 914 yuan/ton, compared to - 886 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 66 yuan/ton, compared to - 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 5 yuan/ton, compared to - 8 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia has raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, and the export tax has been increased to 10%. The September reference price is 4053.43 ringgit/ton (962.12 dollars/ton), compared to 3864.12 ringgit/ton in August with a 9% export tax [2][3]. - Indonesia has saved at least 3.68 billion dollars in foreign exchange this year by using palm - oil - based biodiesel. The palm oil blending ratio in its biodiesel is 40% (B40 biofuel), and the policy took effect at the beginning of this year. As of June, about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel had been distributed, achieving half of the 2025 target of 13.5 million kiloliters [3]. - As of the week ending August 6, Argentine farmers sold 868,100 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 28.8286 million tons. The local oil mills purchased 679,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 188,600 tons. They also sold 52,700 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 593,100 tons. The total soybean sales for all years in that week were 961,800 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 70.2008 million tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 soybeans was 8.092 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [4]. - Ukraine's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to drop to 2.7 - 2.8 million tons, down from 3.7 million tons in 2024. The extreme drought in southern and central - eastern Ukraine has cut the sunflower seed production forecast to no more than 14 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 16 million tons [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

Report Information - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the policy of increasing customs duty deposit on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8% and imposing 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oil cake from Canada since March 20, 2025, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [6] - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible reduction of soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand, the long - term outlook is positive [6] - Palm oil is boosted by the increase in exports and continues to strengthen [6] - The three major domestic oils have little room for significant short - term decline, with a bullish view, and it is recommended to hold far - month basis [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10, 2025 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons from July 1 - 10 [7] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on imported rapeseed from Canada. It was initially determined that there was dumping, and from August 14, 2025, importers should provide corresponding margin according to the determined margin ratio [7] 2. Data Overview - Various price and basis data are presented, including the basis price of Dongguan third - grade and first - grade rapeseed oil, the basis price of soybean oil in the East China market, and the basis price of 24 - degree palm oil in the East and South China markets [6] - Multiple charts show the spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [9][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple positive factors are driving the continuous strength of the oil and fat market. Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a significant increase in CBOT soybean prices, and Malaysian palm oil futures continued to rise. Domestically, soybean oil prices are supported by inventory and other factors, palm oil follows external costs, and rapeseed oil has policy - related risks after price increases [1][5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.8 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons [2] - The USDA's August supply and demand report shows that the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season decreased by 2.5 million acres month - on - month, and the expected output decreased by 43 million bushels month - on - month [2] - As of August 8, India's oilseed sowing area decreased by 4% year - on - year. If the trend continues, edible oil imports may exceed 20 million tons in the next six to seven years [2] - On August 12, the cost of Canadian rapeseed imported to China, including margin, reached 8,394 yuan/ton, making it difficult to enter the Chinese market [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean prices. The MPOB monthly report and high - frequency data contributed to the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and factors like export increase and trade risk premium support its price. Palm oil inventory slightly rises, with a supply - demand weak pattern, and its futures price follows external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory has a downward trend, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, with policy risks to be watched [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views **Soybean Oil** - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,558, with a basis of 82, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,650 [2]. **Palm Oil** - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,268, with a basis of 128, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. **Rapeseed Oil** - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,906, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing a notable increase while the overall supply remains stable and the market is influenced by various factors including international relations and domestic consumption policies [1] Market Performance - On August 12, canola oil futures opened at 9609.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 9817.00 CNY and a low of 9596.00 CNY, with an increase of approximately 2.36% [1] - The average price of imported three-grade canola oil was reported at 9813 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.51% increase from the previous day [1] Inventory and Supply - As of August 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.39 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 110,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 230,000 tons [1] - Canola oil inventory stood at 660,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, decreasing by 30,000 tons month-on-month, and increasing by 170,000 tons year-on-year [1] Import Prices - On August 11, the C&F price for imported canola oil from Canada was reported at 1035 USD/ton for September shipment and 1015 USD/ton for November shipment, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Market Outlook - According to Da Yue Futures, oilseed prices are expected to stabilize due to a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply, with a forecast for higher South American production in the 2024/25 USDA report [1] - Ruida Futures noted that the current season is a low-demand period for oilseeds, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oils and ongoing high inventory pressure for canola oil, which may continue to restrain market prices [1] - The market is currently balancing between short-term supply looseness and uncertainties regarding future shipments, with canola oil prices showing strength due to palm oil price increases [1]

Report Overview - **Industry**: Oil and fat [1] - **Date**: August 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a two - year high of 2.11 million tons, but the inventory build - up was less than expected, making the report bullish. Palm oil prices rose strongly in the afternoon, with the main contract P2601 hitting a new high for the year. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Its trend lacks a clear driver and follows the market. Due to the abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain high operating rates, and soybean oil inventory may increase, dragging down soybean oil prices. However, the long - term outlook is positive due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, a possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and a recovery in domestic demand. China's three major oils are unlikely to see a significant short - term decline, and it is advisable to hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2509: The previous settlement price was 9012, the opening price was 8974, the highest price was 9236, the lowest price was 8912, the closing price was 8218, with a gain of 206 (2.29%). The trading volume was 299,988, and the position decreased by 5,290. - P2601: The previous settlement price was 9026, the opening price was 9000, the highest price was 9246, the lowest price was 8944, the closing price was 9238, with a gain of 212 (2.35%). The trading volume was 372,378, and the position increased by 52,216. - Y2509: The previous settlement price was 8408, the opening price was 8384, the highest price was 8470, the lowest price was 8352, the closing price was 8456, with a gain of 48 (0.57%). The trading volume was 164,012, and the position decreased by 29,250. - Y2601: The previous settlement price was 8396, the opening price was 8376, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8334, the closing price was 8440, with a gain of 44 (0.52%). The trading volume was 452,116, and the position increased by 20,826. - OI2509: The previous settlement price was 9560, the opening price was 9552, the highest price was 9612, the lowest price was 9512, the closing price was 9588, with a gain of 28 (0.29%). The trading volume was 194,113, and the position decreased by 14,440. - OI2601: The previous settlement price was 9543, the opening price was 9544, the highest price was 9605, the lowest price was 9506, the closing price was 9593, with a gain of 50 (0.52%). The trading volume was 142,492, and the position increased by 22,198 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bullish on the three major oils in the short - term, hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysia's July Palm Oil Data (MPOB)**: - Production was 1.8124 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (7.09%) compared to June. - Imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (12.82%) compared to June. - Exports were 1.3091 million tons, an increase of 48,100 tons (3.82%) compared to June. - End - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, an increase of 81,700 tons (4.02%) compared to June. - **Malaysia's August 1 - 10 Palm Oil Exports (AmSpec)**: Exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to the same period in July [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - International: There is a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders led to a rise in CBOT soybean prices. MPOB's July report showed that Malaysia's palm - oil inventory accumulation was less than expected. High - frequency data indicated strong palm - oil exports from Malaysia from August 1 - 10, and Indonesia's reaffirmation of the B50 plan starting in 2026 caused a significant afternoon rally in Malaysian palm - oil futures [6][7]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise. The increase in July's soybean imports and recent export growth supported prices. Rising South American soybean premiums and trade - risk premiums made soybean oil relatively strong. Palm - oil inventory shifted from increase to decrease, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, with futures prices following external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline. The drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies supported rapeseed oil prices, keeping it in a range - bound oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release its August supply - demand report at 12:00 pm EDT on August 12 (early Wednesday morning Beijing time). Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean production to be 4.365 billion bushels, higher than last month's government forecast [2]. - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's July palm - oil exports were 1,309,059 tons (up 3.82% month - on - month), imports were 61,039 tons (down 12.82% month - on - month), production was 1,812,417 tons (up 7.09% month - on - month), and inventory was 2,113,278 tons (up 4.02% month - on - month) [2]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm - oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The National Grain and Oil Information Center stated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume slightly decreased last week. As of August 8, it was 2.18 million tons, down 80,000 tons week - on - week, 120,000 tons month - on - month, but up 210,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content. Views and Strategies - International: Strong US soybean harvest expectations, Trump's call on China for soybean orders, less - than - expected Malaysian palm - oil inventory accumulation, strong Malaysian palm - oil exports in early August, and Indonesia's B50 plan influenced international oil - related futures prices [6][7]. - Domestic: Different supply - demand situations and external factors affected the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the domestic market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The weather in the US soybean production areas is favorable, with a decreasing drought rate and good growth. As the weather window gradually closes, there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to an oscillatory adjustment [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.22% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,406 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan or 0.69% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + -10 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 104 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 114 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - **US Drought**: As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [2] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year, the smallest increase since the 2006/07 season. The estimated production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons. Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year [2] - **US Soybean Exports**: The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 468,000 tons, up from 349,000 tons the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 545,000 tons, up from 429,000 tons the previous week [2] - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazilian soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.74 million tons, compared to 2.1 million tons last year; corn exports are expected to be 7.58 million tons, compared to 6.42 million tons last year [2] - **Import Prices**: Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price is $561/ton, down $7/ton; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price is $551/ton, down $7/ton. Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) C&F price is $1,141/ton, down $12/ton; Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price is $1,120/ton, down $21/ton [2]

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Intraday, soybean oil became the strongest variety, and the three major oils took turns to rise. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will announce July's supply - demand data on August 11. July's palm oil production may be better than expected, but exports are still very weak, meaning the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. It's necessary to focus on whether palm oil can effectively stand above the 9,000 mark recently. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Policy interference is significant, and the trend lacks an obvious driver. Due to the current ample supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and factory soybean oil inventory may still increase, dragging down the rise of soybean oil. However, it is optimistic in the long - term because of the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand. The room for a significant decline in the spot basis of the three major domestic oils in the later period is limited, and it is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1. Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8980 | 60000 | 5000 | 8920 | 8950 | - 30 | - 0.33% | | 445128 | - 27119 | | P2601 | 8986 | 9016 | 9056 | 8932 | 8966 | - 20 | - 0.22% | 211935 | 245848 | 7141 | | Y2509 | 8360 | 8420 | 8486 | 8366 | 8406 | - 46 | 0.55% | 388658 | 408811 | - 49208 | | Y2601 | 8334 | 8396 | 8466 | 8340 | 8378 | 44 | 0.53% | 403098 | 595690 | 44018 | | OI2509 | 9576 | 9575 | 9672 | 9458 | 9496 | - 80 | - 0.84% | 343152 | 155705 | - 25362 | | OI2601 | 9524 | 9530 | 9630 | 9452 | 9490 | - 34 | - 0.36% | 158654 | 162192 | 9619 | Domestic spot basis prices are also provided, such as Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2509 + 80, etc. [7] 3.1.2. Operation Suggestions - Appropriate to buy far - month basis as the later decline space of domestic three major oils' spot basis is limited [8] 3.2. Industry News 3.2.1. Palm Oil News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in July 2025 was 1.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.01%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 17.18% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.69% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 2.58% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency SGS announced that Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 896,362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June's 1.195265 million tons. Exports to China were 75,000 tons, a significant drop from June's 168,000 tons. - Survey data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased significantly and reached a 19 - month high. Reuters estimated production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] 3.2.2. Brazilian Soybean News - The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade (SECEX) data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.26 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons from June's 13.42 million tons. The export value in July was 502.197 million US dollars, a decrease of 33.214 million US dollars from June's 535.411 million US dollars. The average export price in July was 409.71 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10.75 US dollars per ton from June's 398.96 US dollars per ton. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean exports were 77.207 million tons, a decrease of 1.944 million tons from the same period last year. The cumulative export value from January to July 2025 was 3.0430808 billion US dollars, a decrease of 390.4235 million US dollars from the same period last year. The average export price from January to July 2025 was 394.15 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 39.64 US dollars per ton from the same period last year [10] 3.3. Data Overview - A series of charts are provided, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, as well as some price spreads and exchange rate charts [13][14][15]