Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June to 3.8% in July, indicating rising inflation pressures [1] - The core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also saw a slight increase from 3.7% in June to 3.8% in July [1] - The CPI for services rose from 4.7% to 5.0%, reflecting broader inflationary trends in the service sector [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the rising CPI will put pressure on the Bank of England's monetary policy, making it difficult to further cut interest rates if inflation continues to rise [1] - The Bank of England recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [1] - The Bank of England forecasts that the inflation rate will peak at 4% in September before gradually returning to the target level of 2% [1]

根据英国国家统计局的数据，机票、食品成本提高为通胀率上涨的最主要原因。英国央行预计，通胀率 或在9月达到峰值4%。针对最新数据，财政大臣里夫斯表示"在稳定生活成本方面还有很多工作要做"。 （总台记者 杨兢兢） 当地时间20日，据英国国家统计局数据，英国7月通胀率上涨至3.8%，为2024年1月以来的最高水平， 远高于英国央行2%的目标。英国6月通胀率为3.6%。 ...

新华财经墨西哥城8月20日电 墨西哥金融高管协会（IMEF）近日将2025年墨西哥GDP增长预期从0.1% 上调至0.4%，但指出该水平仍属疲弱。 分析人士指出，墨西哥经济近期持续受到外部需求波动、美国关税政策不确定性及国内消费疲软等因素 影响，增长动能依然不足。 （文章来源：新华财经） 墨西哥金融高管协会全国主席加布里埃拉·古铁雷斯表示，第二季度GDP增长0.7%超出市场预期，推动 全年经济预测小幅上调。"尽管如此，这一数据仍显示墨西哥经济在2025年的表现十分疲弱。"她说。 墨西哥金融高管协会全国经济研究委员会主席维克托·曼努埃尔·埃雷拉表示，美国推迟加征部分关税也 为前景改善提供了一定支撑。"关税政策多次出现宣布、取消、再推迟的情况，导致出口流量先行受 阻，后又恢复。"他说。 在宏观预期方面，墨西哥金融高管协会维持今年年底通胀率在4.0%的预测，并预计墨西哥央行利率将 在年底降至7.25%。 ...

随后公布的数据显示，经济和劳动力市场表现好于预期，这进一步证明了保持谨慎立场的必要性。周 二，交易员预计11月降息的可能性为三分之一，年底前降息的可能性仅为50%。 这些数据对里夫斯和英国首相基尔·斯塔默来说也是一个打击，他们上任时承诺要改善"劳动人民"的生 活水平。然而，由于通胀回升与劳动力市场降温，实际收入的复苏正在逐渐停滞。批评人士将通胀回升 与劳动力市场降温归咎于他们去年10月份提出的增税预算。 7月份英国通胀率连续第二个月攀升，这给英国央行增加了重新考虑降息步伐的压力。英国国家统计局 周三公布，英国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%，高于6月份的3.6%，并创下2024年1月以来的最 大涨幅。此次价格上涨主要受机票、酒店和汽车燃油价格上涨的推动。 服务业通胀率是衡量潜在价格压力的良好指标，该指数攀升至5%，高于英国央行预测的4.9%。通胀数 据公布后，英镑兑美元汇率收复部分跌幅，基本持平于1.3492。 这些数据进一步证明，企业正在对英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯4月份大幅提高税收和最低工资标准做出 反应，将数亿英镑的额外成本转嫁给消费者。食品价格涨幅加快至 4.9%，高于前一个月的4.5%， ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision was influenced by stagnant economic recovery in Q2 and anticipated further cooling of inflation [1] - Current inflation is near the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range (1% to 3%), with expectations of a decline to around 2% by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively reduced interest rates by 250 basis points, one of the largest reductions among major Western economies [2] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with various central banks taking different stances on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates but is widely expected to initiate its first rate cut of the year in September [2]

从解雇劳工统计局局长，到要求高盛换经济学家，美国媒体评价说，特朗普处理"不合意"数据的方式无 非两种——要么改数据，要么换人。 新华财经北京8月15日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中 越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普针对这一观点发文表示，高盛集团经济学家"应该换人"，业余爱 好"打碟"的集团首席执行官应专注其副业。 《华尔街日报》报道说，从实际情况看，高盛经济学家团队的预测较为准确：近几个月来，美国就业增 长放缓至16年来最低水平；顽固的通货膨胀率不降反升；2025年美国经济增长乏力。 特朗普：高盛CEO要么换经济学家，要么去搞副业 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至今年6月，美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业 转嫁关税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预测"错了"。"大多数情况下，承担这些关税（成本）的根本不是消费者，主要是公司 和政府，其中许多是外国（公司和政府）。" 特朗普在帖文中不点名批评牵头完成上述研究报告的高盛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent PPI data release in the U.S. has significantly altered market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a substantial rate cut in September [2][4][6]. Group 1: PPI Data Impact - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 3.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.5% [2]. - The month-on-month PPI for July was 0.9%, also exceeding the previous value of 0.00% and market expectations of 0.20% [2]. - Experts noted that the impact of PPI data is more significant than that of CPI data, as PPI reflects price pressures at the production level [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Response - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped to around 85%, down from 100% [4]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a shift in sentiment, with concerns about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut being dismissed [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, influenced by tariffs [4]. Group 3: Political Reactions - President Trump, who had previously pressured Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts, has remained silent following the PPI data release, indicating a shift in the political narrative [6]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also begun to find excuses for previous statements regarding rate cuts, suggesting a retreat from aggressive rhetoric [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of 3374.9 and a low of 3329.8, ultimately closing at 3334.9 [8]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further declines in gold prices, targeting levels around 3330 and potentially lower [9][11].

Core Insights - Greece's inflation rate increased slightly from 3.6% in June to 3.7% in July, continuing to exceed the Eurozone average [1] - The Eurozone's overall inflation rate remained at 2% in July, with core inflation at 2.4%, showing a minor decrease of 0.1% month-on-month [1] - Greece's inflation has been above the EU average since October of the previous year, indicating persistent structural weaknesses in the Greek economy [1] Economic Challenges - Key factors driving inflation in Greece include issues in the food sector, housing, and energy costs [1] - The government has not effectively addressed the long-term structural problems contributing to these inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that U.S. consumers bore 22% of the tariff costs from April to June 2023, and this figure is projected to rise to 67% by October if current tariff policies remain unchanged [1][2] - The report contradicts President Trump's assertion that other countries bear the brunt of the tariffs, leading to a public dispute between Trump and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon [1] - Other financial institutions have echoed concerns about rising prices due to tariffs, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.2% in July and an annual inflation rate of 2.7% reported [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the inflation rate in the U.S. could reach 3.2% by the end of the year, while it would have been 2.4% without the impact of tariffs [2] - Oxford Economics predicts an even higher inflation rate of 3.8% by year-end, highlighting the broader economic implications of the current tariff policies [2]

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 泰国央行将基准利率下调0.25个百分点 中新社曼谷8月13日电 (记者 李映民)泰国央行货币政策委员会13日决定将基准利率下调0.25个百分点， 由1.75%降至1.50%，并即刻生效。 货币政策委员会指出，尽管2025年泰国经济增速与此前预测接近，但美国加征关税将进一步加剧结构性 问题并削弱竞争力，一些经济领域的脆弱性正加深，尤其是中小企业。同时，整体通胀率受供给因素影 响处于低位。在此背景下，委员会决定降息。 数据显示，2025年上半年泰国经济增长主要受益于电子产品出口、对美出口加快以及制造业扩张，但展 望下半年，受美国关税政策直接和间接影响，加之旅游及相关行业面临压力，中小企业、雇员及自由职 业者面临冲击，私人消费增速或将放缓。 货币政策委员会强调，将继续关注信贷扩张及汇率变动对经济活动的影响，并配合采取措施降低融资成 本、缓解弱势群体债务压力。 货币政策委员会重申，将在保持物价稳定的同时，兼顾经济可持续增长和金融体系稳定。未来货币政策 应维持在适度宽松水平，以支持经济增长，同时平衡中期经济金融稳定与有限的政策空间。(完) 本文为转载内容，授权 ...