Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the rising trend of gold ETFs, driven by increased risk aversion due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has reached a record 36 days, impacting economic forecasts negatively [1][2] - As of November 5, 2025, the gold ETF fund has seen a 4.10% increase over the past month, with a trading volume of 6.51 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.76% [1] - The COMEX gold futures price rose by 0.75% to 3990.40 USD per ounce, reflecting market reactions to the ongoing government shutdown and its potential economic impacts [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, with upward movements typically associated with geopolitical chaos and weak U.S. economic performance [2] - Current risks to gold prices, such as a recovering U.S. economy or a hawkish Federal Reserve, are not significantly present at this time, suggesting a favorable environment for gold [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global liquidity expansion and increased preference for gold as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of continued price increases driven by multiple factors [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows that the gold ETF fund experienced a net outflow of 46.82 million yuan, but over the past 20 trading days, there were 11 days of net inflow totaling 5.099 billion yuan, indicating a strong interest in gold investments [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy grew at a rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, with exports showing resilience [1] - The number of visitors to Hong Kong has increased significantly, indicating a recovery in the tourism market [4] Capital Market - Hong Kong's IPO financing reached over $500 billion, marking a four-year high [4] - The influx of international capital reflects confidence in Hong Kong's status as a global financial center [6] International Relations - The U.S. is considering providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which may not affect its own weapon stockpile [6] - Russia has expressed discontent, stating that supplying weapons will not resolve the conflict and may escalate tensions [8] U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government has been shut down since last month, marking the second-longest shutdown in history [10] - Over one million U.S. soldiers are not receiving pay, leading to financial difficulties for many families [11] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices may rise if the government shutdown continues, as it typically increases demand for safe-haven assets [11] - Recent tax policies have significantly impacted the gold jewelry sector, potentially reducing profits by over 50% for some companies [25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, breaking the critical support level of $3990, follows three months of continuous increases, raising concerns about the future trajectory of gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold was a leading asset this year, reaching historical highs in March, with a 47% surge in global investment demand in Q3, and Chinese investors purchasing 74 tons of gold, a 19% increase year-on-year [3]. - On November 3, gold prices dropped over 1% during U.S. trading hours, struggling to maintain the $4000 mark, and fell below $3990 on November 4, a significant level previously viewed as a "bullish lifeline" by many institutions [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The primary pressure on gold prices comes from the strengthening U.S. dollar, which surpassed the 100 mark on November 4 for the first time since August, as Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to a rate cut in December, boosting confidence in the dollar [5]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surged to 4.11%, offering higher returns without the volatility associated with gold, prompting large investors to withdraw from the gold market [6][7]. - A decrease in risk aversion due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, compounded by the lack of timely economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased gold sell-offs [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to experience "volatile downward movement" due to the strong dollar and reduced likelihood of a December rate cut, with a potential drop to $3900 [11]. - However, the long-term outlook remains positive for gold, suggesting a "value return" despite the current "pressure test," depending on whether investors are focused on short-term trading or long-term positioning [11][13].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices opened lower in the Asian session on November 4, currently trading around $3980, after fluctuating near $4000 on November 3, with a low of $3963 and a high of $4030, closing at $4001.16 per ounce. Despite a 53% increase in gold prices this year, there has been a decline of over 8% since the historical peak on October 20, driven by uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, the U.S. government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax exemption policy [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, leading to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 100% to 65.3%, which negatively impacted non-yielding gold [3][4]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with a rare 10-2 vote reflecting differing views on monetary policy. Dovish members advocate for significant rate cuts, while hawkish members express concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target [4][5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, contributing to a rise in the dollar index, which reached a new high of 99.89, further suppressing gold prices. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating continued contraction, and key labor statistics are on hold due to the shutdown [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $3925 to $4025, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $30 to $50 [5][6]. - The daily chart shows gold prices closing with a small body, indicating a struggle to break above the $4030 resistance level, suggesting continued contention between bulls and bears within the $3920 to $4030 range [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical risks marginally decreasing. Without unexpected positive stimuli, London gold is anticipated to consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with potential for new highs in the first quarter of next year [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Market Conditions** - Current gold price levels are still considered high, and volatility remains significant [1] - Geopolitical risks have shown a marginal decline, which may influence market stability [1] - **Future Expectations** - London gold is expected to consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with new highs projected for the first quarter of next year [1] - For gold prices to continue rising, two necessary conditions must be met: 1. Implied volatility must decrease to levels seen in August and September 2. There must be new macroeconomic driving factors [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback last week, hitting a two-week low of $3,886 on October 28, but rebounded significantly on October 30, despite a slight decline on October 31, closing at $4,003 per ounce. October saw a cumulative increase of 3.7%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials on October 31 reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a three-month high in the US dollar index, which put pressure on gold prices. However, market sentiment remains cautious due to the impending longest government shutdown in US history and ongoing international geopolitical tensions, providing some support for gold [1] - The North American region officially transitioned to standard time on November 2, affecting trading hours for major financial instruments, including gold and silver, which will now open at 7:00 AM Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy on gold, which may have a short-term negative impact on gold prices but could provide long-term support [2] - The ongoing conflict in Israel has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine [2] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are in an overbought state, suggesting potential for a significant pullback. Historical data indicates that similar overbought conditions often lead to deep corrections, as seen in November 2024 with a maximum monthly fluctuation of $225 [2] - The current fundamental landscape is mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors at play, contributing to the expectation of significant volatility in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Aggressive trading strategies suggest entering short positions in the $4,005-$4,010 range with a stop loss at $4,015, targeting a reduction to $3,980-$3,970 [3] - Conservative strategies recommend waiting for a rebound to test the $4,030-$4,040 range before entering short positions, with a stop loss at $4,050 and targeting a reduction near $4,000 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market opened lower on November 3, with the dollar index strengthening, influenced by Federal Reserve officials opposing a rate cut in December and rising gold tax costs increasing short-term selling pressure [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile state, with a trading range of 4050-3888 observed at the end of October, indicating a continuation of this trend into early November [4] - The potential for upward movement in gold prices is contingent on breaking above 4050, with targets set at 4150 and 4300, while a drop below 3935 could lead to further declines towards last week's low of 3888 [4] Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold, particularly the Shanghai gold and accumulation gold, has shown strong performance after a significant drop, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 920 and accumulation gold at 915, indicating a recovery [5] - The focus for the domestic gold market this week is on breaking key resistance levels at 955 for Shanghai gold and 950 for accumulation gold, with a bullish outlook for the beginning of the week [5] - The strategy for trading domestic gold remains to maintain long positions, with attention on potential buying opportunities during the expected volatile market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics for gold and silver, highlighting the interplay of both bullish and bearish factors affecting prices, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events and economic data releases. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold taxation are expected to have a short-term negative impact on gold prices, but may provide long-term support [1] - The ongoing conflict in Israel and the West Bank has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine, which introduces both bullish and bearish sentiments in the market [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release is highly anticipated, especially after the government shutdown that delayed the September data, making the October figures particularly significant [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with a price fluctuation exceeding $100, and a notable drop of nearly $500 before stabilizing around $3,886 [3] - The recent price action indicates a potential for a "super sweep" in the gold market, driven by a mix of strong buying pressure during the previous rally and substantial selling pressure during the recent decline [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150-$4,160, with strong support around $3,915-$3,920, indicating critical price points for future movements [7] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The market is expected to experience a tendency for price increases followed by pullbacks, suggesting a trading strategy focused on short-term buying and selling around key resistance and support levels [9] - For silver, the focus remains on maintaining a bullish outlook as long as prices do not fall below the $45.5-$46 range, with significant resistance identified at $49.5-$50 [9]