Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a peak at $3345 and a low breaking the strong support at $3310, reaching down to the $3300 level [1] - The recent downward movement in gold prices is seen as a temporary dip, with expectations of a potential rebound if market conditions stabilize [3] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies, particularly the recent tariff increases announced by the Trump administration on countries like Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Indonesia [1] - The tariffs, effective from August 1, are perceived as a strategy to regain control and assert dominance in international trade, which could lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently stabilizing around the $3330 mark, with expectations of a potential upward movement towards $3400 if it maintains this level [3] - Key support and resistance levels are being monitored, particularly around $3325 and $3310, to gauge the market's reaction and potential for further price movements [4][7] Trading Strategy - Short-term trading strategies suggest taking short positions around $3335, with targets set at $3325 and $3327, while maintaining a stop-loss above $3340 [5] - A wait-and-see approach is recommended for potential long positions after a pullback, with entry points around $3325 and a target of $3350 [7] Domestic Gold Prices - Current domestic gold prices are around 770, with expectations of a potential rise to 780 before facing resistance [7]

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading around $3312.29 per ounce, down 0.68% from the previous session, with a high of $3342.43 and a low of $3306.29 [1] - Gold price is currently maintaining above the 20-day moving average of $3300, indicating a potential for further upward movement [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 60, suggesting that the price has room for further increases without entering overbought territory [4] Group 2 - The flooding in Kerr County, Texas, has resulted in 68 fatalities, including 28 children, with the situation described as heartbreaking [3] - Texas Governor Abbott reported an additional 10 deaths and 41 missing persons in other areas of Texas, indicating widespread devastation [3] - Rescue operations are hampered by ongoing rainfall and the risk of more flash floods, leading to a pessimistic outlook on the rising death toll [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold is currently trading around $3,310.02 per ounce, down 0.75% from its previous levels, with a high of $3,342.43 and a low of $3,304.99 observed [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears bearish, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The daily chart shows gold prices maintaining above the 20-day moving average of $3,300, suggesting a still bullish overall trend [5] Group 2: Weather and Disaster Management - Recent severe flooding in Texas has highlighted systemic flaws in the federal government's disaster response mechanisms, exacerbated by structural changes during the Trump administration [3] - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) experienced a nearly 30% reduction in technical positions from 2018 to 2020, leading to decreased effectiveness in flood warning systems [3] - The current disaster response has revealed issues such as delayed warnings and poor coordination in rescue efforts, reflecting imbalances in the federal system's responsibilities and capabilities [4]

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surpassed $3,344 per ounce amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [2] - A significant price disparity exists in the domestic market, with retail gold prices reaching 1,005 CNY per gram compared to a wholesale price of 756 CNY per gram, indicating a potential market imbalance [2] - Historical patterns suggest that July could be a pivotal month for gold prices, reminiscent of last year's fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce before a breakout [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical factor, with a recent employment report causing a drop in expectations for a September rate cut from 78% to 65%, which could impact gold prices significantly [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with potential for a "black swan" event that could cause gold prices to spike to $3,400 per ounce if Israel engages in ground operations [4] - Technical analysis indicates that the $3,400 per ounce level is a focal point, with previous attempts to breach this level failing, and a drop below $3,280 could lead to further declines [4] Group 3 - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce while advising clients to reduce positions above $3,350 per ounce [5] - Market participants are employing varied strategies, with some investing weekly to maintain an average cost below 760 CNY per gram, while others engage in high-frequency trading within specific price ranges [5] - The upcoming U.S. economic data is seen as a potential "ticking time bomb" for gold prices, with a core CPI below 2.8% possibly driving prices to $3,500 per ounce, while strong GDP growth could trigger a sell-off [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 947.66 tons of gold as of July 2, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day. The gold price rebounded to a six-day high of $3,360.05 per ounce, closing at $3,356.90, up $18.2 or 0.55% [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 2, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 947.66 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 0.57 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 2, 2025, spot gold prices reached a high of $3,360.05 per ounce, marking the highest level in six days [6]. - The closing price was $3,356.90 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $18.2 or 0.55% [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Gold prices remained below $3,350 due to a stronger dollar and concerns over U.S. tariffs and the "Big Beautiful Plan" [6]. - The unexpected decline of 33,000 in the U.S. ADP employment figures for June raised concerns about the labor market, increasing bets on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [6][7]. Group 4: Future Employment Data - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with UBS predicting an increase of only 100,000 jobs and a potential rise in the unemployment rate to a new high since 2021 [7]. - If the employment data is weak, the Federal Reserve may act to cut rates as early as July [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that gold remains at high levels due to trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and increasing central bank purchases, although the upward momentum may be nearing its limit [7]. - The resistance level for gold is at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,377, with the June 23 high of $3,397 as a target for buyers [8]. - Support levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of $3,320, with further support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $3,297 and below June lows near $3,250 [8].

Core Insights - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a price increase of 0.42% as of July 3, 2025, with a recent price of 7.41 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 4.98% over the past three months [2] - The World Bank's precious metals analysts predict an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months due to heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, with a nearly 25% increase in gold prices in the first half of 2025 [2] - The gold ETF fund has experienced net inflows in 3 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 452 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 9.03 million yuan [2] Performance Metrics - As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF fund has appreciated by 89.19% over the past five years, ranking second among comparable funds [3] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception is 10.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 16.53% and an average monthly return of 3.27% [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 2.31, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] Fund Characteristics - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3] - The fund has a current financing buy amount of 4.99 million yuan and a financing balance of 3.63 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and economic data performance, leading to uncertainty in gold's market outlook [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Positive signals from tariff negotiations have increased market risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has seen a decline this week, yet gold prices have not benefited from this trend. Market pricing indicates a 20% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, rising to 75% in September [3]. - Despite high inflation data, the market maintains expectations for a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, but this has not provided effective support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Performance - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. June ADP employment data, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, highlights concerns in the job market and strengthens bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming June non-farm payroll data, as its results will significantly impact gold price movements [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical risk easing, diverging monetary policy expectations, and mixed economic data contributing to uncertainty [4]. - In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile, with a focus on U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy direction. In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainty and central bank gold purchases may support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4].

Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China has issued new regulations requiring reporting of cash transactions exceeding 100,000 RMB or equivalent foreign currency in the precious metals and gemstones sector, effective from August 1, 2025 [3][4][8] - The regulations aim to establish a systematic regulatory framework to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing risks in the precious metals and gemstones trading sector [5][6] Compliance Requirements - Institutions must conduct customer due diligence based on the risk status of the customer before or after transactions, especially for cash transactions of 100,000 RMB or more [5][6] - A full-process management system is mandated, requiring institutions to establish internal controls for anti-money laundering, designate responsible personnel, and conduct regular risk assessments [6][8] Record Keeping and Reporting - Transaction records must be retained for at least 10 years, and any suspicious transactions, regardless of amount, must be reported promptly [7][8] - Institutions are required to submit large transaction reports within five working days of the transaction occurring [8] Market Trends - International gold prices have risen over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [9][10] - Experts predict that gold prices will continue to experience upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divide regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, which are currently at historical highs around $3,300 per ounce, with expectations of a potential decline due to improved global economic outlook and reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][4][10]. Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, spot gold prices have slightly increased to $3,347.4 per ounce, while COMEX gold prices are around $3,350 per ounce [1][4]. - Since reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, gold prices have stabilized around $3,300 per ounce [4][11]. ETF Flows - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [4][9]. - North America faced the most significant impact, with ETF outflows of about $1.5 billion, while Asia saw outflows of approximately $489 million, primarily due to reduced demand in China [6][7]. Regional Analysis - Europe recorded a modest inflow of about $225 million, driven by the French market, which offset outflows from Germany and the UK [7]. - The "other regions" category experienced a small outflow of about $27 million, ending a five-month inflow streak, mainly from Australia and South Africa [8]. Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices may decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing reduced investment demand and improved economic conditions [10][11]. - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, maintain a more optimistic outlook, predicting prices could reach $6,000 and $3,700 per ounce, respectively, by the end of 2025 [12]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent outflows, the World Gold Council notes that global gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of about $30 billion since the beginning of 2025, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons [9][13].