Market Overview - The global semiconductor wafer market is projected to reach approximately $11.5 billion in sales in 2024, with a shipment area of 12,266 million square inches, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, marking a recent low [2][3] - The domestic semiconductor wafer market in China is expected to be around 15 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in 300mm wafer shipments, particularly from companies like Shanghai Xinsheng, which saw over 70% year-on-year growth [2][3] Industry Trends - By 2027, the demand for silicon wafers is anticipated to grow robustly due to increasing needs related to artificial intelligence and advanced processes, with domestic companies like SMIC and Huahong Group planning clear capacity expansions [3][4] - The 300mm wafer segment is expected to dominate, with global sales projected at around $8.5 billion in 2024, accounting for over 70% of the market, and a domestic market size of approximately 7.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [4][5] Pricing Dynamics - In 2024, the pricing of semiconductor wafers is expected to show a divergence, with 300mm wafers remaining stable due to demand from AI and storage chips, while prices for 200mm and smaller wafers are under pressure, with 200mm epitaxial wafer prices dropping over 15% [5][6] - Major players like Shin-Etsu Chemical and SUMCO are controlling production to maintain high margins, while domestic companies are aggressively expanding capacity and pricing their products 10%-15% lower than international competitors [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the total revenue of listed companies in the silicon wafer industry is projected to be approximately 13.453 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.58%, with an average gross margin of about 21.14% [10][11] - TCL Zhonghuan and Huahong Group are leading in revenue, with TCL Zhonghuan generating 4.687 billion yuan and Huahong Group 3.388 billion yuan [11] Stock Market Performance - The silicon wafer industry experienced a turbulent stock market in 2024, with an overall decline of 25.13% by year-end compared to the beginning of the year, and a maximum drawdown of 41.51% [14][16] - Huahong Group was the only company to see a slight increase in market value, while TCL Zhonghuan and Shen Gong Co. faced significant declines of 41.41% and 33.55%, respectively [16][17]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the semiconductor industry [30][12][20]. Core Insights - There is a resurgence in investor sentiment around AI, particularly following Computex in mid-May, although many investors remain underexposed and cautious as they approach the typically soft third quarter [2][1]. - TSMC is expected to benefit from easing concerns over AI order cuts and increasing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, with a projected revenue growth of 28.7% YoY in 2025 [5][6]. - MediaTek's AI ASIC project faces potential delays, but the long-term growth story in the ASIC market remains intact, with expectations of a 16% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [8][17]. - ASE is seeing increased investor interest due to its advancements in advanced packaging technology, with expectations for significant capacity increases in the coming years [10][11]. Summary by Company TSMC - TSMC is positioned as a leading global foundry with over 60% market share, expected to achieve a 20% revenue CAGR driven by AI and HPC demand [12][15]. - The target price for TSMC is set at NT$1,210, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [13][14]. MediaTek - MediaTek is transitioning towards AI applications, with a focus on smartphone processors and enterprise ASICs, aiming for a significant share in the US$45 billion ASIC market [17][8]. - The target price for MediaTek is NT$1,800, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [18]. ASE - ASE is recognized for its leadership in semiconductor assembly and test services, with a focus on advanced packaging technologies [19]. - The target price for ASE is NT$165, derived from a P/E multiple of 18x [21].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of K&S (KLIC US) with a Buy rating, and BE Semiconductor (BESI NA) with a Neutral rating, while maintaining a Buy rating on ASMPT (522 HK) [3][6][11]. Core Insights - Advanced packaging (AP) is expected to evolve significantly from 2025 onwards, with a shift from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L/R, increased adoption of SoIC driven by HBM5, and potential upgrades in InFO technology led by Apple [3][6]. - The semiconductor cycle's recovery is a key catalyst for K&S and ASMPT, given their substantial sales exposure to conventional packaging [3][6]. CoWoS Technology - CoWoS technology is transitioning from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L, with TSMC expected to increase its CoWoS-L capacity from approximately 20% in 2024 to nearly 60% in 2025 [7][21]. - CoWoS-S is anticipated to face oversupply due to non-TSMC supply chain expansions, while CoWoS-L is expected to be in demand for high-end GPUs [7][28]. SoIC Technology - SoIC is projected to gain importance with the adoption of high-NA EUV technology, although headwinds are expected in 2025 due to limited new adopters and potential capex constraints from Intel [8][14]. - AMD is currently the major adopter of SoIC, with potential future demand driven by Apple and HBM technologies [8][14]. InFO Technology - Apple is likely to adopt upgraded InFO technology from 2026 onwards, necessitating capacity upgrades to accommodate new application processor designs [9][20]. - The transition from InFO-PoP to InFO-M is expected as the I/O count between DRAM and application processors becomes insufficient [9][20]. Company-Specific Insights - K&S is positioned to be the primary TCB supplier for TSMC's on-wafer process starting in 2025, benefiting from the shift towards CoWoS-L technology [3][6]. - ASMPT is expected to gain market share in the HBM market from a low base, with its TCB potentially adopted by TSMC and Apple in the future [3][6]. - BE Semiconductor faces challenges due to rich valuations and potentially disappointing hybrid bonding orders in 2025 [3][6].

Company Overview - FormFactor has a global presence with approximately 2,150 employees and manufactures over 115 million MEMS probes annually[7] - The company's trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue as of October 30, 2024, was $742 million[7] - FormFactor is recognized by industry leaders such as Intel, Samsung, Micron, SK hynix, and TSMC[7] Financial Performance - In 2023, FormFactor's revenue was $663 million[20] - The company's non-GAAP EPS in 2023 was $0.73[20] - The free cash flow for 2023 was $11 million[20] - The non-GAAP gross margin in 2023 was 40.7%[20] - The target model revenue is $850 million, with a target non-GAAP EPS of $2.00[87] - The target free cash flow is $160 million[87] Market and Growth - The advanced probe card market is estimated to be $2.0 billion, while the engineering systems market is $0.5 billion[47] - The advanced probe card market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8%[52] - The engineering systems market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3%[52] - FormFactor estimates its growth in the advanced probe card market to be 10%+ CAGR[79]

Group 1 - The article provides a buy rating for BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (OTC:BESIY), highlighting its strong positioning to benefit from AI adoption and the shift towards advanced packaging [1] - The investment approach emphasizes understanding the core economics of a business, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment runway, and management quality, which are crucial for long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation [1] - The focus is on sectors with strong secular tailwinds, indicating a preference for industries that are expected to grow over time [1] Group 2 - The author is a self-educated investor with 10 years of experience, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1] - The motivation for writing is to share investment insights and receive feedback from fellow investors, aiming to help readers focus on factors that drive long-term equity value [1] - The analysis is intended to be both analytical and accessible, adding value to readers seeking high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1]

Company Overview - Onto Innovation is a high-tech capital equipment company specializing in optical process solutions for semiconductor and related markets[6] - The company has a trailing twelve month (TTM) revenue of $846 million[7] - The company's TTM adjusted EPS is $3.99[7] - The company has over 10,000 employees[7] - The company has over 1,500 active metrology & inspection tools installed[7] Market Trends and Growth Drivers - The AI server market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%[9] - Chiplet packaging is expected to grow at a CAGR of 80%[9] - Global EV charging station is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46%[9] - The company estimates its Total Available Market (TAM) will increase threefold due to the AI era, reaching $12.3 billion[12] Financial Guidance and Long-Term Model - The company's Q2 2024 revenue guidance is between $230 million and $240 million[32] - The company's Q2 2024 gross margin guidance is between 52% and 54%[32] - The company's Q2 2024 diluted EPS guidance is between $1.14 and $1.26[32] - The company's long-term organic operating model targets $1.8 billion in revenue[33]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CoPoS packaging technology is gaining attention in the market, with plans for its first production line set to be established by 2026 and large-scale production expected between late 2028 and 2029, with NVIDIA as the first customer [1][2] Group 1: CoPoS Technology Development - TSMC's CoPoS is a variant of the CoWoS technology, designed to optimize space and reduce costs, with dimensions of 310x310 mm [1] - The focus of CoPoS packaging will be on advanced applications such as AI, with specific processes targeting companies like Broadcom, NVIDIA, and AMD [1][2] Group 2: Production Timeline and Facilities - TSMC's AP7 facility in Chiayi is planned to have eight phases, with CoPoS expected to achieve large-scale production in phase P4 [2] - The AP7 site is strategically chosen for its larger area and advanced technology, allowing for the integration of multiple packaging technologies [2] Group 3: Future Production and Technology Integration - The timeline for CoPoS includes equipment testing starting mid-next year, with small-scale production anticipated in 2027, followed by process validation and large-scale production by the end of 2028 [2] - TSMC aims to provide optimal solutions by integrating various technologies such as SoIC, CoWoS, and CoPoS for HPC chip packaging below 2nm [2]

Core Insights - Marvell Technology, Inc. has introduced an innovative multi-die packaging solution that significantly reduces the total cost of ownership (TCO) for custom AI accelerator silicon, enabling designs that are 2.8 times larger than traditional single-die implementations [1][7] - The new packaging technology addresses challenges in the AI era, such as power management and supply chain complexities, allowing hyperscalers to accelerate time-to-market and enhance supply chain flexibility [2][4] Company Developments - The multi-die packaging platform is part of Marvell's comprehensive IP portfolio for custom AI compute platforms and has been qualified with a major hyperscaler, now entering production ramp [1][7] - Marvell's approach integrates advanced features such as a modular RDL interposer, which reduces design costs and increases chiplet yields by allowing individual die replacements [5][10] Industry Context - The chiplet processor market is projected to grow by 31% annually, reaching $145 billion by 2030, highlighting the importance of advanced packaging technologies in the evolution of chiplet architectures [4] - Collaboration with leading companies in the semiconductor industry, such as ASE and Amkor Technology, emphasizes the critical role of advanced packaging in enhancing performance and efficiency for AI and accelerated compute devices [9][10] Technical Innovations - The Marvell RDL interposer design allows for shorter die-to-die interconnects and supports the integration of passive devices to minimize signal noise, enhancing the overall performance of AI designs [6][5] - The platform supports the integration of HBM3 and HBM3E memory, with plans for future HBM4 designs, showcasing Marvell's commitment to advancing memory technologies in AI infrastructure [8][11]

Group 1 - Deca Technologies has signed an agreement with IBM to implement its M-Series™ and Adaptive Patterning® technologies in IBM's advanced packaging facility in Bromont, Quebec [1][2] - The collaboration aims to enhance IBM's advanced packaging capabilities, positioning the Bromont plant as a critical hub for high-performance packaging and chiplet integration [2][4] - Deca's M-Series platform is recognized as the highest-volume fan-out packaging technology globally, with over seven billion units shipped, and the MFIT™ technology offers cost-effective alternatives for chiplet integration [3][6] Group 2 - The partnership reflects a shared commitment to advancing semiconductor packaging, combining IBM's capabilities with Deca's technology to expand the global supply chain for high-performance chiplet integration [4][5] - Advanced packaging and chiplet technology are essential for improving computing solutions in AI and data-heavy applications, with Deca's involvement ensuring IBM's Bromont facility remains innovative [5] - Deca Technologies is a leading provider of advanced packaging technology, with its M-Series™ fan-out technology emerging as a key industry standard for future semiconductor applications [6]

KLA (KLAC) FY Conference Summary Industry Overview - The conference focused on the wafer equipment (WFE) market, particularly in the semiconductor industry, highlighting KLA's position and growth prospects within this sector [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments Growth Drivers - KLA reported a strong growth profile driven by investments in leading-edge technology, particularly in the two-nanometer node and high-performance computing [3][4]. - The WFE market is expected to grow in the mid-single digits, while KLA's service business is projected to grow by approximately 10% [5][7]. - The company has seen a shift towards advanced packaging, which is becoming a significant growth opportunity, particularly due to high-performance computing demands [4][6][19]. Financial Performance - KLA's process control systems revenues have outperformed the WFE market, growing at a 13% CAGR compared to the WFE market's 11% CAGR [10][11]. - The gross margin model is approximately 62.5%, with operating margins targeted between 40-50% [7][8]. - KLA's share of the WFE market has increased from low sixes to nearly 8% [19]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural growth in WFE intensity, which is expected to continue due to rising demand and complexity in manufacturing processes [12][13]. - The introduction of EUV technology has revitalized scaling in the industry, leading to increased demand for KLA's process control solutions [14][15]. Future Outlook - KLA anticipates continued growth in 2025, driven by advanced foundry logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging [20][21]. - The company is optimistic about the sustainability of its growth trajectory into 2026, contingent on macroeconomic factors and demand in mobile and PC markets [27][28]. Trade and Tariff Considerations - KLA has assessed a potential tariff impact of approximately 100 basis points but remains confident in its ability to manage this risk through operational adjustments and a robust service business model [30][34]. Technological Advancements - KLA is leveraging AI and GPU-based architectures in its systems to enhance performance and efficiency, particularly in defect detection and process control [40][41][64]. - The company is investing in EUV inspection capabilities to meet future market demands as feature sizes shrink [48][49]. Additional Important Insights - KLA has gained significant market share in the electron beam inspection market, doubling its revenues and increasing its share by 700 basis points [54][55]. - The advanced packaging market has expanded significantly, with KLA's revenues in this segment projected to grow from $500 million to $850 million, reflecting a 70% increase [66][70]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the shift from traditional wafer processing to advanced packaging solutions, which presents new market opportunities [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the KLA FY Conference, highlighting the company's strategic positioning and growth potential within the semiconductor industry.