投资要点： 风险提示：原材料成本大幅度提升，竞争加剧导致价格战，U8 全国化不及预期。 股价表现的催化剂：产品提价，原材料成本下降，餐饮需求回暖带动结构升级提速。 根据公司公告，2024 年公司实现啤酒销量400.44 万千升，同比增长1.57%，其中2024Q4 实现啤酒销量 55.71 万吨，同比增长8.9%。测算2024 年吨酒收入（含非啤酒收入）3662.7 元/吨，同比增长1.6%，其 中2024Q4 吨酒收入3268.49 元/吨，同比下降7%。燕京U8 延续强劲的增长势能，2024年实现销量69.6 万吨，同比增长31.4%，2025 年一季度U8 延续30%以上增长。 2024 年公司归母净利率7.2%，同比提升2.66pct，扣非净利率7.1%，同比提升3.58pct。2024 年公司营业 利润率10.97%，同比提升3.76%。2024Q4 公司实现归母净利润-2.3 亿，同比减亏0.79亿，扣非净利 润-2.2 亿，同比减亏1.44 亿。 2025Q1 我们预计在U8 持续增长的带动下，公司的销量、吨价均有望实现增长，展望2025 年，伴随渠 道变革推进，若餐饮消费改善催化啤酒板块需求， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership changes at Zhongbao Investment Co., Ltd. (Zhongbao Investment) and its strategic direction under new management are pivotal for its future growth and alignment with Shanghai's financial development goals [1][2][6]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Jia Biao has been appointed as the Chairman of Zhongbao Investment, while Li Jun has taken over as the President [2][11]. - Jia Biao has extensive experience in the insurance industry and has been involved in significant regulatory roles, contributing to the development of insurance fund utilization [8][9]. - Li Jun, previously the General Manager of Haitong Securities, brings a wealth of experience from various financial institutions [12][13]. Group 2: Company Background - Zhongbao Investment was established in December 2015 with a registered capital of 1.2 billion yuan, funded by 46 shareholders including insurance companies and asset management firms [4]. - The company serves as the general partner for the China Insurance Investment Fund, responsible for its establishment, fundraising, and management [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Zhongbao Investment has been actively collaborating with local governments and financial clients to support the real economy, achieving an average annual compound growth rate of 14% in total assets as of 2024 [9]. - The company has outlined investment strategies focusing on early-stage technology investments, mergers and acquisitions, and pre-IPO funding to support innovation and industrial development [9][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The company aims to establish a "new asset management service platform" by 2025, focusing on a customer-centric approach and comprehensive risk management [16]. - Zhongbao Investment plans to enhance its role in Shanghai's "Five Centers" initiative, emphasizing long-term capital investment and strategic partnerships [14][16]. - Recent projects include establishing a 45 billion yuan infrastructure fund and investing in various sectors such as technology and energy [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in the proportion of open-ended wealth management products, with the closed-end product reach rate at 81.59% and the open-end product reach rate at 55.50% as of the end of March 2025 [3][16][17] - The overall market's wealth management product break-even rate is 2.49%, showing a decrease of 1.67 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Market Overview - The break-even rate for wealth management products as of March 2025 is 2.49%, down from a peak of 20.60% in December 2022 [13] - The reach rate for closed-end wealth management products is 81.59%, while the open-end products have a reach rate of 55.50% [16][17] 2. Net Value Wealth Management Products Tracking - The number of existing net value wealth management products decreased to 19,000 as of March 2025, a decline of 1.67% from the previous month [4][24] - The proportion of fixed-income products among net value products is 91.78% [30] 3. Issuance Market Situation - In March 2025, the total number of newly issued wealth management products was 6,191, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 46.95% [40] - Non-principal guaranteed wealth management products have seen a significant rise, while principal guaranteed products have nearly disappeared [43] 4. Wealth Management Yield Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the expected annualized yields for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year wealth management products are 2.34%, 2.71%, and 3.03%, respectively [5] - The yield for 1-year wealth management products from city commercial banks has increased compared to the previous month [15] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national banks with solid fundamentals and low valuations, such as Postal Savings Bank, Agricultural Bank, and CITIC Bank, particularly in the context of state-owned enterprise reforms [8] - It also highlights regional banks like Qilu Bank and Ningbo Bank that are expected to perform well due to ongoing recovery in small and micro enterprises [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [27]. Core Views - The company, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760), reported a total revenue of 42.837 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.86% to 3.394 billion yuan [3][4]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant recovery in orders, leading to a substantial increase in performance, with a quarterly revenue of 17.54 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.58 billion yuan, up 145% [4]. - The company is positioned as a key player in China's aviation industry, with ongoing demand for main models and new products gaining attention, suggesting strong growth potential [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 12.47%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.97%, up 1.46 percentage points [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -3.742 billion yuan, an improvement from -4.393 billion yuan in the previous year [3][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]. Business Segment Performance - The main subsidiary, Shenyang Aircraft Company, generated revenue of 41.34 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.7% to 3.34 billion yuan [5]. - Jihang Company reported a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.8%, with net profit soaring by 253% to 30 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 50.965 billion yuan, 58.610 billion yuan, and 65.654 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.063 billion yuan, 4.788 billion yuan, and 5.503 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation level historically, with a PE ratio projected to decrease from 28.49X in 2025 to 21.03X in 2027 [12].

其他军工Ⅱ 分析师：刘智 登记编码：S0730520110001 liuzhi@ccnew.com 021-50586775 经营质量逐步提升，新型号产品开启公司 新成长 ——中航沈飞(600760)2024 年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(首次) 市场数据(2025-04-08) | 收盘价(元) | 42.00 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 61.07/34.36 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,650.76 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.78 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,152.79 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.20 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | -1.36 | | 毛利率(%) | 12.47 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 19.88 | 投资要点： 中航沈飞（600760）4 月 1 日披露 2024 年年度报告。2024 年，公司实现 营业总收入 428.37 亿元，同比下降 7.37%；归母净利润 33.94 亿元，同 比增长 12.86%；扣非净利润 33.73 亿元，同比增长 ...

发布大额回购计划，彰显国企担当 事件：徐工机械发布回购公司股份的公告，拟用自有资金或其 他合法资金回购 18-36 亿元，回购价格不超过人民币 13 元/股， 按 13 元/股价格计算，拟回购股份占总股本的 1.17%-2.34%。本 次回购的股份将用于实施股权激励或员工持股计划。 连续第三年实施回购计划，回购规模创历史新高：回顾公司历 史回购，公司分别于 2015 年、2023 年、2024 年发布回购计划并 完成，回购规模分别约为 2.59 亿元、8.52 亿元、3.73 亿元，分 别占彼时总股本的 1.08%、1%、0.48%。本次回购系公司连续第三 年回购，且规模较大，我们认为一方面反映了公司对当前行业格 局和产业边际改善的判断，系对业绩增长的信心，另一方面是积 极深化国改，持续完善长效激励机制。此举亦充分体现了国有大 企业对社会、对市场的担当。 深化国改，践行股东回报计划：公司通过引入市场机制、优化 股权结构和激励机制等改革手段，持续推动自身向高质量发展转 型，也在 2024 年底提出了《全球投资者未来三年（2025-2027） 回报计划》，不仅在主业方面加强研发投入、提升基本面，也在股 东回报方面 ...

中航沈飞（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600760） 公司点评 外部因素影响营收，科研生产经营质效提升 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-04-09 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 42.00 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 61.85/34.27 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2,756 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2,745 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.60 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -21% 6% 33% 59% 86% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 中航沈飞 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓承佯 4 月 1 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。根据公告，2024 年实现营业收入 428.37 亿元，同比下降 7.4%，归母净利润 33.94 亿元，同比增长 12.9%。 ⚫ 外部因素影响营收 公司年报显示，受合同签订进度、配套供应进度等外部因素影响，公司 营业收入受到了影 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 25.50 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 to 3.2 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% to 18% [1]. - The company has shown a steady recovery in sales, with wholesale sales reaching 945,000 units in Q1 2025, up 13.3% year-on-year, indicating the initial effects of ongoing reforms [2][5]. - The internal restructuring focuses on the "large passenger vehicle" segment and includes a strategic partnership with Huawei to enhance product development and marketing capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a wholesale volume of 945,000 units in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13.27%. The terminal deliveries exceeded 1.08 million units, and inventory levels have further decreased [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at 1.685 billion, 11.376 billion, and 14.141 billion RMB respectively, with a significant recovery expected in 2025 [5][7]. Strategic Developments - The company has undergone management changes and initiated multiple reform measures since July 2024, focusing on resource allocation and efficiency improvements [4]. - A strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei was signed to develop new energy smart vehicles, expected to launch in 2025 [3]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing reforms and partnerships, which are anticipated to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic and international markets [4][5].

Core Insights - China CRRC expects a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a range of RMB 28.22 billion to RMB 32.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% to 220% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit excluding non-recurring items between RMB 26.05 billion and RMB 28.72 billion, indicating a growth of 290% to 330% year-on-year [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in product sales compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, China's railway passenger volume reached 4.312 billion, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase and setting a new historical high [1] - The company is advancing the renewal and upgrading of railway equipment to stimulate consumption and investment [1] Group 2: Company Overview - China CRRC is recognized as a global leader in rail transit equipment, resulting from the merger of "South North Cars," and is currently the largest and most comprehensive rail transit equipment supplier globally [2] - The company has implemented a strategic framework of "one core, two businesses, and one stream," optimizing its business structure to support improved profitability [2] - Since the merger in 2015, the company's revenue and profit scale have remained stable [2] Group 3: Corporate Governance - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, which has effectively adjusted its operational mechanisms and industrial layout through three years of state-owned enterprise reform [2] - China CRRC places a strong emphasis on cash dividends and market capitalization management, with a steady increase in dividend yield [2] Group 4: Related Stocks - Related Hong Kong stocks include China CRRC (01766), Times Electric (03898), and China Communications Construction Company (03969) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to continue improving due to multiple reforms, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and adapting to market demands [4]. - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 703 million, 807 million, and 911 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.68, 0.78, and 0.88 yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both domestic and international markets, with a significant focus on product quality and price competitiveness [4]. Company Overview - The company, originally established as a refrigerator manufacturer, has diversified into a range of home appliances following a strategic restructuring with Sichuan Changhong [14]. - The current major revenue sources are air conditioning and refrigerators, which together account for nearly 95% of total revenue [17][34]. - The company has a professional management structure, with a significant portion of its executives having backgrounds in Sichuan Changhong, enhancing operational efficiency [20][23]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 24.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 741 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.75% for revenue and 80.52% for net profit from 2018 to 2023 [25]. - The gross profit margin has been gradually recovering, reaching 13.9% in 2023, although it is expected to face pressure in 2024 due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [39][44]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow net amounting to 2.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 14.1% increase [54]. Industry Insights - The home appliance industry is witnessing a trend towards high-end products in the domestic market, while the international market is experiencing a recovery in demand [57]. - The refrigerator market is projected to see a total shipment of approximately 96.71 million units in 2024, with exports growing faster than domestic sales [57][64]. - The company is focusing on health preservation and innovative designs in its refrigerator offerings, aligning with consumer preferences for quality and aesthetics [64].