Group 1 - The spot gold price reached $3320 per ounce on July 1, with a year-to-date increase of over 25% as of June 30 [1] - The gold ETF (518880) showed active performance, rising 0.68% with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, leading among similar products [1] - A report from Galaxy Securities predicts that the COMEX gold price may steadily break through $3300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to amplified price elasticity [2] - The demand resilience in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics will support energy metals, despite being in a clearing cycle [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue due to core factors such as safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand, with limited short-term adjustment space providing opportunities for low-level buying [1][2][3] Group 1: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in the global trade environment and ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, positively impacting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The geopolitical situation shows signs of easing, but overall tensions remain, contributing to sustained high levels of risk aversion in the market [3] Group 2: Reserve Demand - There is a noticeable decline in the credit quality of global assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves to mitigate potential credit crises, which boosts effective demand for gold and instills market confidence [2] - The ongoing process of reshaping the global monetary order under loose monetary policies is accelerating the demand for gold as a reserve asset [2] Group 3: Allocation Demand - Gold's low correlation with other assets makes it an effective tool for optimizing investment portfolios and hedging institutional risks, especially in the current uncertain economic, policy, and political environment [2] - The continued loose monetary and fiscal policies, along with rising government debt, further support the demand for gold through reserve and allocation channels [2] Group 4: Price Support Levels - The first support level for international gold is identified at $3170 to $3200 per ounce, with a core support level at $3000 per ounce, indicating limited downside potential [1][3] - A breakout above $3500 per ounce could lead to new historical highs for gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - International gold prices are under short - term pressure, and the rise in silver prices is unsustainable. International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's. The price decline space of gold is limited, the high price of silver is unsustainable, and platinum and palladium prices may experience sharp rises and falls [1][8][11][27][28][29] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Fluctuation Driving Factors - On June 24, 2025, the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and its supporters led to a rapid decline in international gold prices. On June 26, Trump's consideration of announcing Powell's successor might weaken the US dollar in the short - term, causing international gold prices to strengthen slightly. On June 27, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran further reduced market uncertainty, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [6] 3.2 Market Price Trends - International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's [8][11] 3.3 Market - Related Important Data - COMEX gold inventory continues to decline, while SHFE gold inventory keeps rising. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 7 consecutive months since November 2024, and as of the end of May 2025, its gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces (about 2296.37 tons). The gold - buying actions of central banks around the world are an important support for international gold prices [18][24] 3.4 Market Short - term Outlook - The price decline space of gold is limited as the cease - fire between Israel and Iran eases the situation in the Middle East and reduces global risk - aversion sentiment. The recent rise in silver is mainly driven by speculative funds and lacks industrial fundamentals support, so the high price is unsustainable. Platinum and palladium belong to a more segmented precious metals market, and their prices are more sensitive to capital inflows and outflows, so sharp rises and falls need to be prevented [27][28][29]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments in China have jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)", aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% in production by 2027 [1] - The Myanmar Gold Traders Association held a seminar on June 29 to discuss key areas such as legal trading channels, domestic gold price mechanisms, and international trade [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest producer of mined gold for 18 consecutive years and the largest consumer for 12 years, highlighting the industry's foundational advantages [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities noted that the long-term logic for gold remains intact, with weakening dollar credit expected due to U.S. fiscal issues and trade tensions under the Trump administration, which may further impact government credit [1] - Geopolitical issues abroad continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise [1] - Global central banks have continued their gold purchasing pace, with 243.7 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 3 - Current gold holdings are at a low level, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings not keeping pace with gold price increases, indicating significant upward potential [1] - In the silver market, a supply-demand gap is expected to persist throughout the year, and during a loose monetary cycle, the gold-silver ratio is likely to converge, suggesting that silver may enter a phase of catch-up [1]

市场风险偏好继续改善的背景下，贵金属价格全线回落。 上周五（6月27日），纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价当日收盘下跌55.5 美元，收于每盎司3286.1美元，跌幅为1.66%。 当周金价累计下跌近3%，为连读第二周周线下跌。避险需求减弱成为金价下挫的主要原因。 随着以色列和伊朗在周初达成停火协议，对地缘局势升级的担忧减弱，加上贸易局势出现缓和迹象，均 削弱了避险资产黄金的吸引力，促发了金价的获利了结。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为81.9%，而此前一日这一概率为77.3%。 不过当天稍晚公布的美国6月密歇根大学一年期通胀预期终值则为5%，低于预期的5.2%。加上美国5月 消费者支出出人意料地出现下降，交易员对美联储年内累计降息75个基点、并从9月开始降息的押注有 所增加。 但在短期内，风险偏好转暖带来的抛售仍占据主导。有市场分析人士表示，随着贸易紧张局势减弱和中 东停火协议延续，黄金吸引力减弱，促使部分投资者选择退出。 在此背景下，周一（6月30日）早盘开盘后，金价进一步下挫。纽约期金电子盘低点一度逼近3250美元 ／盎司，刷新逾一个月低点。 在金价大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the gold market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][6][62] - The performance of the metal industry in H1 2025 shows that the steel sector underperformed with a 0.62% increase, while the non-ferrous metal sector outperformed with a 15.34% increase [18][19] - Key metals such as gold, cobalt, antimony, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide have shown significant price increases compared to the end of last year and the same period last year, with gold prices rising by 25.24% year-to-date [2][41] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for rare earth exports is expected to recover due to relaxed export controls and growing needs in the new energy and robotics sectors [7][10] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing rapidly, with several domestic automakers planning small-scale applications by 2026-2027, and key manufacturers establishing production lines for solid-state battery materials [8][10] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with rich gold resources, strong cost control, and potential for production growth, as well as those in the rare earth and solid-state battery materials sectors [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the US PCE inflation data is expected to significantly impact market dynamics, particularly affecting the dollar and gold prices [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index for May is anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in April, while the core PCE is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in April [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that if the PCE data, especially the core index, falls short of expectations, it could weaken the dollar and boost other major non-USD currencies [2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Factors supporting potential gold price increases include sustained demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical issues, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing high levels of US debt and deficits [4][5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) offers a low-cost investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading and providing a long-term hedge against economic downturns [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent economic data from the US indicates weakening consumer confidence and spending, which may put short-term pressure on the economy, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding inflation uncertainties [5]. - Despite a generally weak dollar index trend, the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates has temporarily mitigated the dollar's decline, while gold remains supported by increasing international trade risks [5].

张津镭：中东停火压制金价，日内依旧高空为主 昨日黄金继续走回落行情，亚盘开盘有所反弹，最高到了3350后开始回落，空单刚好于3346附近进场。 随后金价开始走低，美盘刷新日内低点至3309美元，多单于3310自动止盈离场，大赚30余美金。不过尾 盘收回不少失地，最终金价是收盘于3327美元，日线收于一根小阴十字。 周五（6月27日）伊朗与以色列之间的停火协议仍在持续，这显著降低了市场的避险需求。据报道，特 朗普总统已宣布停火协议生效，并计划下周与伊朗进行会谈，这一进展使得避险情绪显著降温，对金价 构成压力。 今晚间将公布美国PCE物价指数，这是美联储衡量通胀的关键指标。若数据低于预期，可能强化市场对 美联储降息的押注，利好黄金；若数据超预期，则可能打压金价。可以说，现在只要中东冲突不重新开 始，黄金将会继续回落。 19:30美联储威廉姆斯主持会议 20:30加拿大4月GDP月率 20:30美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率 20:30美国5月个人支出月率 20:30美国5月核心PCE物价指数月率 21:15美联储哈玛克和理事库克出席活动 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金在回撤3300下方后回弹，在回弹至3320上方，技术上 ...