关税战
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第一轮关税谈判,特朗普强迫日本对华“分手”,转而对中方求饶
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 14:57
认为美国谷歌公司违反了日本的反垄断法,要求谷歌整改,还成立独立监督体系,未来五年定期汇报整改情况。虽然日本官方说这和美国关税没关系,但明 眼人都看得出来,这就是在给美国敲警钟,别把日本逼急了,不然还有更多 "大招"。 今年 4 月,国际经济圈可不太平,一场充满火药味的关税谈判,把美日之间的矛盾彻底点燃,还牵扯出中美之间复杂的经贸纠葛。 当时,日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正带着团队跑去美国谈判,本想着自己是美国的 "亲密盟友",怎么着也能在关税上争取点豁免权。哪知道,第一轮谈 判就谈崩了,双方谁也不让谁,最后闹得不欢而散。美国官员态度那叫一个强硬,直接告诉日本,别想着搞特殊,其他国家都老老实实交关税,给日本开绿 灯可不行。更离谱的是,特朗普自己还下场,和赤泽亮正见面时,提的减免关税条件一个比一个苛刻。一方面,要求日本敞开大门,大量进口美国的汽车、 液化天然气这些产品,摆明了要占日本的便宜;另一方面,还要求平衡美日贸易逆差问题。除此之外,美国还有没明说的 "隐藏条款",居然想让日本和中 国减少经贸往来,甚至完全 "断交",还把安全问题掺和到关税谈判里,搞得一团乱麻。 这回日本没像以前那样忍气吞声,日本首相石破茂表示 ...
“股神”谢幕大会,巴菲特再谈关税:贸易不应成为武器
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-05-04 12:09
"这是我的第60次年度大会,是规模最大的一次,也将是最好的一次。"巴菲特说。 当地时间5月3日,被称作"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州奥马 哈举行。当天,巴菲特宣布计划在年底退休,这或许也将是他作为公司CEO出席的最后一次年度股东大 会。 在长达四个半小时的问答中,巴菲特就关税战、美国财政赤字、美元贬值及人工智能等问题分享见解, 并推荐了自己的"接班人"。 "贸易不应该成为武器" 首个问题直指关税。巴菲特此前曾形容,美政府的关税政策"是一种战争行为"。 美国商务部最新数据显示,美国一季度GDP自2022年以来首次出现萎缩。当天,巴菲特对美国政府的财 政状况提出警告。 "我在年度报告中就简要提到过,美国的财政政策让我害怕。"巴菲特说。 他认为,美国的财政状况不可持续,"我们不知道这意味着两年还是二十年,因为从没有一个国家像美 国这样,但这种情况不可能永远持续下去。" 当天,巴菲特指出,各国之间的贸易平衡是更好的选择,但美政府大范围征收关税的做法并非正确之 举。 "我们应该与世界其它国家开展贸易,做我们最擅长的事,而他们做他们最擅长的事。"巴菲特认为,世 界其它地区越繁荣,就会变 ...
特朗普打残美国产业,体面认输,请中方给个台阶,中方就是不理
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 11:58
Group 1 - The core objective of the tariff war initiated by Trump was to suppress China, but it backfired, damaging the U.S. industries instead [10] - The U.S. reliance on Chinese critical minerals for its clean energy sector was highlighted, showing that tariffs on these minerals harmed American industries [3][5] - The Biden administration's approach to tariffs was more targeted and effective compared to Trump's broad measures, which inadvertently hurt U.S. industries [5][7] Group 2 - The international response to U.S. tariff policies has been one of resistance, with calls for unity against U.S. trade bullying, emphasizing the need to maintain a multilateral trade system [1] - Trump's declining approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with his policies indicate a lack of support for his tariff strategies, which have created uncertainty in global trade [9][10] - The European economy is facing significant threats due to U.S. tariff policies, with officials expressing a desire for negotiations to resolve trade issues [10]
湾财周报|人物 刘强东送外卖;王石代言遇冷;董明珠连任
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 08:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China is not afraid of a tariff war and has a richer set of policy tools to respond compared to the United States [2] - China does not wish to initiate a tariff war but will base its responses on its economic needs [2] - The Chinese government has more operational space in both tariff and financial policy areas, which can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of the U.S. tariff war on its economy [2] Group 2 - JD.com's founder Liu Qiangdong personally delivered food, which was confirmed by the company, highlighting the brand's engagement with customers [4] - Wang Shi, founder of Vanke Group, endorsed a high-priced product "Total Executive Bird's Nest," but sales have been disappointing, raising questions about market acceptance of premium health products [4] - Gree Electric's board has elected Dong Mingzhu as chairperson for the 13th board term, while Zhang Wei has been appointed as the new president, indicating a leadership transition [5] Group 3 - Zheng Jiashun will step down as chairman of the nomination committee at New World Development, with his daughter Zheng Zhiwen appointed to the committee, marking a generational leadership change [7] - Wang Youlin, founder of Kangli Elevator, passed away at the age of 62, which may impact the company's future direction and leadership [8]
耶伦站了出来,称美国正被中国“捏着短板”,关税战是自己打自己
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 06:52
Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration against China, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and revitalizing the U.S. economy, is causing significant economic strain and may backfire, as highlighted by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's warnings about the U.S. economy's vulnerabilities [1][3][5]. Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit with China reached $400 billion in 2024, prompting the Trump administration to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods to protect domestic industries and increase government revenue [3][5]. - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst performance since the pandemic recovery began, contradicting the administration's optimistic outlook [5][14]. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - The U.S. heavily relies on China for critical materials, particularly rare earth elements, which account for over 70% of global supply, essential for high-tech manufacturing [5][9]. - Efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths have been largely unsuccessful, leading to increased production costs and factory shutdowns in the U.S. [7][9]. Inflation and Production Costs - Tariffs have led to rising costs for American manufacturers, as many imported goods are essential raw materials and components, resulting in higher prices for consumers and reduced production capacity [11][12]. - The increase in import costs is expected to lead to higher consumer prices across various sectors, including groceries, fuel, and electronics, putting additional financial pressure on households [16]. Long-term Economic Concerns - Yellen emphasized that the ongoing trade war could severely hinder the U.S. green energy sector, which relies on affordable imports of lithium, nickel, and cobalt from China [11][12]. - The potential for a long-term decline in U.S. competitiveness in global markets is a significant concern, as companies may struggle to compete with foreign rivals if supply chains are disrupted [16].
股神学不来!巴菲特股东大会到底给了散户哪些实用投资启示?
格隆汇APP· 2025-05-04 05:58
就在昨天,投资界的年度盛会——伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会在奥马哈盛大召开,北京时间3日周六晚9点进入大会备受关注的股东问答环节。股 神巴菲特再次全程参与,特携其CEO接班人-伯克希尔非保险业务的负责人阿贝尔,以及保险业务负责人贾恩一同亮并共同回答股东提问。 年年巴菲特股东大会年年学,但还是不会。股神的金玉良言多多,也确实能受益颇多,但普通投资人很多条件跟大佬千差万别,不止是投资水 平或投资理念,比如伯克希尔源源不断的资金来源就是让全世界投资人都望尘莫及,同时伯克希尔的优秀团队和丰富投资工具也是绝大多数普 通投资人难以启及的(比如其可以在日本当地发债用来购买日本股票)。这些散户往往都不具备,同时也很难学会和掌握。 那么这届巴菲特股东大会到底带给了普通投资者人哪些实用的市场投资机会启示呢?我们就结合AI统计的本届大会高频词语具体给大家来交流 几点。 首先,我们简单罗列一下AI统计这次股东大会问答环节中超过4次以上的高频词语排序如下: 伯克希尔 - 58次,巴菲特 - 54次,美国 - 32次,投资 - 28次,公司 - 25次,贾因 - 18次,阿贝尔 - 18次,美元 - 17次,保险 - 15 次,市场 - 14 ...
见识到中方的强硬手段后,美方罕见承认犯下大错,中美局势生变?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 04:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on U.S. agricultural exports, particularly to China, with a notable reduction in soybean and pork imports [1][3][6] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a drastic decrease in Chinese purchases of U.S. pork, with a cancellation of 12,000 tons of orders in one week, marking the largest single-week cancellation since 2020, leading to a 72% drop in total pork exports to China [1] - Additionally, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans plummeted from 72,800 tons to 1,800 tons, representing a decline of over 97% [1] Group 2 - The articles indicate a shift in the U.S. government's perception of the trade war, with officials acknowledging miscalculations regarding China's response and strength [3][6] - Former U.S. officials have criticized the Trump administration for underestimating China's capabilities and have called for clearer communication channels amid escalating trade tensions [6][8] - The current U.S. administration is described as lacking a unified policy framework towards China, with internal divisions between hardliners and those advocating for constructive cooperation [6][8]
美国诺贝尔奖获得者表示:关税战,美国一定会输
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 17:54
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is revealing significant structural differences in their economies, with China appearing more prepared and strategic in its responses compared to the U.S. [3][9] Group 1: Market Reactions - Chicago agricultural futures experienced a sharp decline as China sought new partnerships in South America for agricultural products, indicating a swift shift in market dynamics [1] - U.S. agricultural exports to China have seen a continuous decline over two quarters, contrasting with the stability of Chinese exports to the U.S. [5] Group 2: Economic Structure and Strategy - A Nobel laureate has stated that the U.S. is likely to lose the trade war due to the substitutability of U.S. agricultural products compared to the irreplaceable manufacturing goods exported from China [3] - China's responses to U.S. tariffs have been precise and calculated, while U.S. actions appear reactive and disorganized, highlighting a difference in strategic planning [3][9] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The rebuilding of supply chains is complex and cannot be achieved quickly, as it relies on decades of global collaboration [5] - China's investments in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy have been consistent, indicating a long-term strategy for supply chain independence [3][5] Group 4: Political and Economic Implications - U.S. internal dissent is growing, particularly among farmers and manufacturing workers who feel let down by unfulfilled promises [7] - The trade war reflects a broader systemic clash between China's coordinated approach and the U.S.'s market-driven model, with implications for long-term resilience [9][12]
中国代表团横穿美国3座城市,唯独没想去见特朗普,释放信号不简单
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 12:18
据环球时报报道,近日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者就美方表示美中正就关税问题进 行磋商一事提问。对此,郭嘉昆表示,昨天我和商务部的同事已经明确回答了这个问题。中美双方并没 有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判,美方不要混淆视听。 事实真相逐渐浮出水面:中方官员确实到了华盛顿,但他们是专程参加G20多边会议,而非与美方进行 双边谈判。在多边会场上,中美官员或许有过一面之缘,但这与特朗普所谓的"举行会议"相去十万八千 里。这就像是你在公共场合与他人擦肩而过,就宣称自己与对方"密切交流"一样荒谬。这场谎言被如此 干脆利落地拆穿,特朗普政府的脸面何在?而这背后,必然隐藏着美方不为人知的焦虑与慌乱。 美国华盛顿(资料图) 中国人民对外友好协会会长杨万明率团访问美国俄亥俄州克利夫兰市、宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市、艾奥瓦 州得梅因市,出席中国国家领导人首次访问艾奥瓦州40周年纪念活动,与有关州市政府、议会、工商 界、基金会、文化艺术机构、大学等各界人士进行广泛交流。各方表示,贸易战、关税战不可持续,没 有出路。中美应做合作伙伴,而不是竞争对手,对话合作是唯一正确选择。在当前中美关系遭遇困难的 情况下,应坚持密切民间友好,加强地 ...
博弈视角看“关税战”:特朗普策略与各经济体不同反应 | 国际
清华金融评论· 2025-05-03 09:47
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the implications of Trump's tariff war on the global economy, particularly focusing on the strategies and responses of various economic entities, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the broader international context [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Psychological Bottom Line - Trump's key demands in the tariff negotiations include a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and specific measures targeting China, Canada, and Mexico [5][6][8]. - The 10% baseline tariff is seen as a potential concession point for Trump, aimed at preventing trade loopholes and increasing fiscal revenue [6]. - Protective tariffs on industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles are intended to limit competition and protect American jobs, with tariffs already set at 25% for steel and aluminum [7]. Group 2: Trump's Game Strategy - The U.S. holds a strategic advantage in the tariff war due to its position as the largest global demand-side economy, allowing it to dictate terms to other economies [10]. - Trump's unpredictable behavior in tariff announcements serves to increase the decision-making costs for opponents, maintaining strategic flexibility [11]. - The U.S. is shifting from multilateral frameworks like the WTO to bilateral negotiations, using tariffs as leverage to reshape trade relationships [10]. Group 3: China's Response - China has demonstrated a strong and rapid response to U.S. tariffs, indicating both the necessity and capability to counteract U.S. measures [15][16]. - The trade conflict is characterized as a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where mutual cooperation is beneficial, but unilateral concessions would disadvantage China [15]. - China's economic resilience and strategic reforms are expected to mitigate the impacts of the tariff war, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency [18]. Group 4: Responses from Other Economies - Canada has taken a firm stance against U.S. tariffs, leveraging its economic ties with the U.S. to push back effectively, while Mexico has shown a more passive response due to its dependency on the U.S. [22][23]. - Other economies like the EU, Japan, and India have exhibited a tendency to negotiate rather than retaliate, reflecting their reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response strategies [25][26]. - The EU's delayed response to U.S. tariffs highlights internal divisions and a lack of cohesive strategy compared to China's swift actions [26].