2026年1月16日，国际金价下探至4587美元/盎司，国内基础金价微调至1037元/克，品牌首饰金价仍维持在1400元/克高位，建设银行贵金属及纸铂金、钯金 报价全线下跌。 一、国内外黄金价格 2026年1月16日，贵金属市场呈现国际深跌、国内微调的格局，国际现货黄金开盘后走势疲软，最新报价4587.91美元/盎司，较前一交易日大幅下挫，人民 币计价黄金基准价为1037.00元/克，微跌0.61元，日内波动区间为1031.00至1039.70元。 国内零售市场价格维持高位，品牌溢价显著，萃华金店、星光达珠宝等报价在1385至1439元/克区间，濮阳中国黄金基础金价1029.50元/克。建设银行贵金属 全线下调：AU9999跌至1003.04元/克，美元金（钞）跌至4465.03美元/盎司，人民币铂跌至526.9元/克，跌幅明显。 二、贵金属板块价格下跌 金价回调并未引发恐慌，反而为婚嫁刚需提供了窗口，头部金店如周大福、老凤祥价格下调至1328-1332元/克，咨询量上升成交率仍低，仅婚嫁等刚性需求 者果断下单。 区域价差显著：北京、上海核心商圈金价在1330元/克左右，提供锁价服务；新一线城市如成都、江苏报 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加美联储降息预期强化 。 地缘冲突引爆避险需求 1月3日爆发的 委内瑞拉事件 。 美国对委内瑞拉发动军事行动 ， 抓捕 该国 总统马杜罗，引发全球对美洲政局动荡的担忧。作为全球重要产油国，委内瑞 拉石油出口 大幅下降 ， 日出口量从 95万桶骤降至50万桶，加剧能源供应风险，资金涌入黄金 、 白银避险。 1月中旬格陵兰岛争端升级 。 美国宣称将武力夺取格陵兰岛并威胁对欧洲八国（丹麦、法德等）加征关税 ， 具体从 2月1日起征10% 关税 ， 6月升至 25%，欧盟拟 反制措施 。美欧贸易战与主权冲突叠加，导致全球风险资产 大幅震荡 ，贵金属成为避风港。 尽管特朗普随后发表了关于格陵兰岛的缓和 言论，但这根本没法打消市场的担忧。 中东与亚太局势紧张 。 美军持续增兵中东，伊朗核设施遇袭风险升温；日本解散议会引发债市动荡，韩国面临美国芯片关税威胁， 这些事件 进一步推升 避险情绪。 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加 美联储降息预期强化 。去美元化浪潮持续，现有的货币体系正在崩塌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the argument is that the international monetary system is structurally imbalanced, and China must promote the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) to reduce dependence on the US dollar and enhance its economic sovereignty [3][9]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - The RMB's "active engagement" aims to break the single currency hegemony and create a more equitable and diversified monetary balance, rather than seeking to replace the dollar as a dominant currency [7][28]. - Since 2009, China has been steadily promoting the cross-border use of the RMB, leveraging its trade advantages while considering the interests of other countries [17][19]. - More than thirty countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and France, have adopted the RMB for trade settlements with China, which helps mitigate exchange rate risks and reduce reliance on the dollar [19][21]. Group 2: Risks of Dollar Dependence - The dollar has historically dominated international trade settlements, accounting for over 50% of transactions, leading to significant foreign exchange losses for Chinese foreign trade enterprises due to dollar fluctuations [5][24]. - The US dollar's dominance in foreign exchange reserves remains strong, with approximately 60% of global reserves held in dollars, despite a decline from its peak [13][24]. - The US can transfer domestic economic crises to other countries through monetary policies like quantitative easing, which has historically caused liquidity tightening and capital outflows in other nations [15][28]. Group 3: Strategic Measures for RMB - China is enhancing the infrastructure for RMB internationalization through cross-border payment systems, currency swap agreements, and the promotion of digital RMB for cross-border transactions [21][26]. - The promotion of digital RMB is expected to provide a competitive edge in future cross-border digital trade, contributing to the establishment of a multi-currency system [21][26]. - The RMB internationalization process adheres to principles of non-confrontation and mutual benefit, contrasting sharply with the coercive logic of dollar hegemony [28][30]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The RMB's internationalization is a long-term endeavor, and it is unlikely to significantly challenge the dollar's core position in the short term due to the dollar's entrenched market depth and trust [24][26]. - Continuous efforts are needed to address the RMB's liquidity and regulatory challenges in offshore markets to achieve comprehensive internationalization [26][30]. - The ongoing global trend of "de-dollarization" presents a unique opportunity for RMB internationalization, which could enhance China's ability to withstand external risks and contribute to a fairer global economic order [30].

全球金融市场近期暗流涌动，丹麦率先打响抛售美债的第一枪后，第二个跟风的国家很快浮出水面。 这个以稳健理财闻名的北欧国家，通过旗下养老基金一次性减持高达700至800亿的美债，几乎清空了大 部分持仓。 小李观察到，北欧国家向来对资产风险极为敏感，此番集体行动绝非偶然。 这波集中抛售只是短期市场波动吗？背后是否预示着全球资金对美元资产的信心正在动摇？ 北欧双国接连出手 在全球投资市场中，北欧养老基金的决策一直被视作风险风向标，这些机构手握巨额资金，又以安全性 为首要目标，从不轻易调整核心持仓，其一举一动都牵动着市场的敏感神经。 丹麦率先打破平静，学界养老基金明确宣布，将在本月底前抛售价值1亿美元的美债，给出的理由直指 美国糟糕的财政状况。 学界养老基金管理的资产总额约为257亿美元，美债持仓占比本就不高，此次选择彻底清仓，无疑是向 市场传递出强烈的风险信号。 此外，丹麦另一家养老基金PBU也正在出售美债，负责人毫不避讳地表示，减持美债是为了摆脱对美国 的过度依赖，避免特朗普政府后续可能对丹麦金融业实施的制裁。 小李注意到，北欧养老基金向来奉行长期主义投资策略，对短期收益的追求远让位于资产安全性，它们 的投资组合往 ...

在美国与欧洲关系紧张之际，美元承压，全球各地资产分散配置的势头再起，新兴市场股票、货币与贵金属延续2026年以来的强劲开局。 MSCI新兴市场股票指数周五连续第二日上涨，有望连续第五周走高，为去年5月以来最长连涨纪录。今年以来，该指数累计上涨7%，而标普500指数仅上 涨1%。亚洲科技股为新兴市场的上涨提供了支撑，而拉丁美洲股市领涨，今年以来攀升了13%。 在人民币兑美元中间价于2023年来首次定在强于7元关口后，风险偏好获得提振。南非股市基准指数有望连续第三周上涨，与此同时黄金交投于每盎司略低 于5,000美元。 包括Rohit Garg与Gordon Goh在内的花旗集团策略师在报告中写道，在经历"压力峰值"后，随着焦点回到美国与欧洲的增长分化，美国市场对部分投资者而 言仍可能是优先选项。 不过他们也写道，"去美元化"和"财政挥霍"的主题已经回归。"去美元化有望以积极方式影响新兴市场风险溢价，就像2025年那样。" 来源：国际财闻汇 TCW Group Inc.首席执行官Katie Koch在接受彭博电视采访中表示，人们"在寻求分散配置、减少对美国资产的依赖；我会把它形容为'悄然放弃'美国债 券"。她说： ...

【美元全球外汇储备占比跌破60%】2025年，国际金价年内涨幅超64%，创下自1979年以来年度最大涨 幅。今年的世界经济论坛年会，央行增持黄金、去美元化、美联储独立性等自然成为多个分论坛的核心 议题。如桥水基金创始人达利欧所说，相比美债等美元资产，黄金正在成为全球央行更看重的储备资 产，而央行购金热潮，正在重塑全球黄金市场的需求结构。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据显示，美 元在全球外汇储备中的占比已经跌破了60%，创下数十年来的新低。世界黄金协会的调查显示，高达 95%的央行预计未来将继续买金。这被市场解读为用"无主权信用风险"的实物资产，对冲对美元信用的 深层焦虑。（央视财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver prices have surged, breaking the $100 per ounce mark for the first time in history, driven by a combination of supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Price Surge Analysis - Silver futures on the New York Commodity Exchange reached over $100 per ounce, marking a historic high, with prices increasing from under $30 at the beginning of 2025 to over $80 by December 28, representing a yearly increase of over 175% [1] - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed to about 50, indicating that silver is in a strong position, as historically, this ratio has been maintained between 60 and 70 [1] Supply-Demand Imbalance - The global silver market has experienced a structural shortage for five consecutive years, with supply at 32,100 tons and demand at 35,700 tons in 2025, where industrial silver accounts for 60% of total demand [3] - Silver is essential in high-tech industries, including AI data centers and electric vehicle manufacturing, making it a critical raw material rather than a speculative asset [3] - The supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to quickly increase production to meet demand [3] Geopolitical Impact - The steep rise in silver prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and the weakening of the US dollar, which have increased global risk aversion [4][5] - The ongoing geopolitical instability, including US tariff escalations and sanctions, has led to a surge in investment in precious metals like silver and gold as safe-haven assets [4][5] - The phenomenon of "de-dollarization" has been observed, with central banks selling US Treasury bonds and increasing gold reserves, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar index and driving up precious metal prices [4] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that if the fundamental supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions remain unchanged, silver prices may continue to experience high volatility [5]

新华社北京1月24日电 经济热点问答｜国际银价缘何破百 新华社记者宿亮 美国纽约商品交易所白银期货价格、伦敦白银现货价格23日双双突破每盎司100美元的关键整数关 口，创历史新高。从2025年初至今，白银价格从跟随国际金价"追涨"，到超过金价涨幅实现"领涨"，引 发市场关注。国际银价缘何破百？其背后有什么深层次原因？ 银价如何飙涨 供给如何失衡 白银广泛应用于高技术新兴产业。根据世界白银协会发布的数据，全球白银市场已经连续五年出 现"结构性短缺"，2025年供应量为3.21万吨，而需求量达到3.57万吨，其中工业用银在总需求中的占比 达到60%。这种供求失衡的局面导致伦敦市场白银库存降到10年来低位。 对于不少产业而言，白银并不是一种投机标的，而是一种重要原材料。在人工智能数据中心建设、 电动汽车制造等领域，白银因其导电性和抗氧化性不可或缺。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，白银供给难以在短时间内迅速增加。全球白银产量约七成是开采铜、铅、 锌等有色金属的"副产品"，供给刚性强，难以在短时间内提升，供需缺口或将长时间存在。 正因如此，白银成为各国"关键矿产"列表中重要组成部分。有媒体指出，白银日益成为供求严重失 衡的"战 ...

Core Insights - International silver prices have surpassed $100 per ounce, reaching a historic high, driven by significant market dynamics and geopolitical factors [1] Price Movement - Silver prices have increased dramatically, starting from under $30 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to over $80 by December 28, marking a yearly increase of over 175% [1] - The price of silver futures on the New York Commodity Exchange exceeded $50 per ounce in October 2025, a level not seen since 1980, with prices doubling within two months [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has experienced a structural shortage for five consecutive years, with supply at 32,100 tons and demand at 35,700 tons in 2025, where industrial silver accounts for 60% of total demand [1] - Silver's dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial raw material has led to increased demand, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI data centers and electric vehicle manufacturing [1] - The supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of mining copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult to rapidly increase supply in response to rising demand [1] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. imposition of tariffs have heightened market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver [1] - The phenomenon of "de-dollarization" has been observed, with central banks selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing gold reserves, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar index and boosting precious metal prices [1] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical instability and a generally weak dollar are key drivers behind the recent surge in silver prices [1] Market Outlook - If the fundamental supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions remain unchanged, silver prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels [1] - The rise in silver prices reflects broader economic instability and the challenges of rebalancing in the global economy [1]

朋友们，大家周末好，金银大宗市场已现了空前盛况，正加速上行；多头高位再恒高的状态，出现了历 史逼空状态。此时多一份冷静，超预期状态短期不会持续太久。5000关口基本绕不开话题，多空重要分 歧点，不会太远，也不会低估，接受5字头出现或短期消失，习惯就好了。 前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 昨日探底拉升稳住5均线继续收大阳，连续五天的大阳单边强势拉升，直接即将逼近5000关口，这也是 周初指出，黄金的走势轨迹已不再是前几周的震荡上行，而是步入单边连阳强势阶段，那么单边拉升过 程中，也要谨慎拉的过快而远离短期均线所带来的风险，当前来看，还并不算太远，继续保持单边北 上；当然，连续大阳之后，最好高位来一个小阴修正或十字K修正，可以更好的延续上拉；若一直未出 现修正，最终也可能会出现某一日突袭获利盘大阴，当然若出现，也是好事，极速修复之后可以酝酿低 位继续开启新一轮单边上拉；5400依旧是今年中旬前的目标； 那么接下来黄金会到哪呢，我想说，上不言顶，不管是5100还是5400，这个让市场去做决定，我们就是 回落干多，下方支撑在4900附近，也就是布局北上的位置；技术面还是那句话，不用 ...