Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, express confidence in the future development of China's economy and capital markets, maintaining an overweight position on Chinese stocks and raising the target for the Chinese stock index [1][2] - Positive factors supporting the Chinese stock market are expected to continue into next year, with foreign capital anticipated to keep flowing in, particularly into sectors like AI, technology, overseas expansion, and "anti-involution" [1][2] Group 2 - China's economy is projected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, resilient exports, and a gradual recovery in consumption and public service spending [2][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting annual export growth of 5% to 6% in the coming years, while the drag from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [2][3] Group 3 - The focus of the stock market is shifting towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS predicting another "bumper year" for the Chinese stock market in 2026 [3][4] - Factors such as the development of innovation sectors, support for private enterprises, and continued fiscal expansion are expected to sustain the market, although significant valuation increases are not anticipated [3][4] Group 4 - Foreign capital has been consistently flowing into the Chinese stock market, with $50.6 billion entering in the first ten months of this year, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [5] - Institutional investors are increasingly confident in China's capabilities in AI, technology, and high-end manufacturing, with many indicating plans to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks in the coming months [5]

摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将 温和增长。同时，经济增长结构将不断优化，制造业和出口展现韧性，消费与公共服务支出逐渐成为重 要支撑。 此外，二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 （以下简称《建议》），也令外资机构充满信心。 高盛认为，《建议》体现出中国进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，以及进一步提振出口的决心和能力。基 于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。预计未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至 6%，获得更多全球市场份额并推动整体经济扩张。此外，房地产行业下行对中国经济的拖累将减弱， 提振消费将循序渐进，政策宽松力度将加大。同时，随着高新技术制造业竞争力提升以及人民币国际化 加速，中国股市表现将领先全球。 股市驱动转向盈利主导 今年以来，A股表现强劲。数据显示，截至11月19日，上证指数年内上涨17.75%，深证成指年内上涨 25.59%。在经历了2025年强劲反弹后，外资机构预计，明年市场的焦点将转向企业盈利能力的实质性 改善。 瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪表示，正面因素将 ...

曾几何时，美国总统的宝座被无数人视为权力巅峰。可谁能想到，如今的特朗普却不再把这把交椅看得 那么"香"。对他来说，权力的终极舞台似乎早已不是白宫的椭圆形办公室，而是那栋藏在华盛顿特区， 外表平淡无奇、实则操控着全球金融脉搏的美联储总部。他的话语和动作，将世界最大经济体推到了又 一个不可预测的十字路口——美元信用，已经悬在了风雨飘摇的边缘。 一时间，"特朗普批评鲍威尔"成了新闻头条。他不是只图嘴上痛快，而是真的想动真格。2019年美联储 加息四次，资本市场一片哀嚎，特朗普连发多条推文指责鲍威尔"拖后腿"、"比我国更像敌人"。到2020 年大选临近，特朗普急需一个经济亮点，但美联储就是不给他"开绿灯"。这种公开较劲，已经超越了正 常的政策分歧，俨然变成了一场围绕央行独立性的拉锯。 美联储：藏在权力背后的"隐形王座" 提起美联储，可能很多普通人只记得那张印着总统头像的美元纸币，却不知道这座被称为"全球经济心 脏"的机构究竟有多大能量。其实，它从来不是普通意义上的"银行"。自1913年成立以来，美联储就一 直被称为"世界上第二有权势的机构"——无论是美国3亿多人的饭碗、还是全球70万亿美元的金融资 产，都在它的一念之 ...

南都讯记者杨文君 发自北京 近日，国际清算银行（BIS）发布数据显示，人民币全球交易量占比升至 8.5%，与英镑差距缩小，国际化进程迎来新机遇窗口。对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家、董事总经 理管涛表示，未来10至15年是人民币国际化向纵深发展的关键阶段。 管涛表示，当前，国际货币领域的最大变化正在发生。在全球新变局下，以美元为主导的国际货币体系 内在缺陷显现，各国加速去美元化进程，呈现出多元化储备货币趋势；数字化加速发展，数字货币以及 新型国际货币体制机制更加受到国际社会高度关注。 近日，管涛同其他专家合著了《货币新局：国际金融格局重塑与人民币新机遇》，立足于国际货币体系 的演变脉络，着眼于人民币国际化的重新定位问题，探讨多极化国际货币体系变革。他在书中谈道，离 岸金融作为国际金融体系的关键组成部分，在推动货币国际化进程中扮演着不可或缺的角色。以中国香 港为主体的离岸人民币市场，长期发挥着政策"试验田"与市场"桥头堡"的双重功能，是人民币国际化的 重要支撑。未来10至15年是人民币国际化向纵深发展的关键阶段，亟须促进离岸市场自身发展及其与在 岸市场的战略协同，以扩大人民币的国际使用网络与规模效应。 促进人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - China UnionPay and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have launched multi-currency debit and credit cards in Turkey, enhancing global payment options and supporting bilateral trade and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2] Group 1: Partnership and Product Launch - The collaboration marks the first issuance of UnionPay multi-currency cards in Turkey, providing local residents with secure and efficient payment solutions [1] - The cards support multiple currencies including Renminbi, Turkish Lira, British Pound, US Dollar, and Euro, facilitating transactions for cardholders globally [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The launch is seen as a significant milestone in UnionPay's international business development and its efforts to deepen localization in the Middle East [1] - The initiative aligns with China's high-level opening-up strategy and aims to enhance cross-border financial connectivity [2] Group 3: Future Plans - UnionPay plans to leverage its extensive global acceptance network and product innovation capabilities to offer more inclusive financial payment solutions [1] - The company aims to continue strengthening partnerships with local entities to improve cross-border payment services and support initiatives like the Belt and Road and Turkey's "Middle Corridor" [2]

全球金融圈都被中国一个操作惊到了，明明自己账上躺着3万亿美元的外汇储备，根本花不完，却面向全球投资者发行了40亿的美元债。 不缺美元借美元，中国到底打的什么算盘？ 就在11月份，中国在香港成功发行了40亿美元的主权债券，3年期和5年期各20亿美元。 按理来说，发债券就等于找市场借现金，发美元债就代表手里没美元了，需要借美元来救急。 可中国呢？ 压根就不缺美元，9月份的顺差还有500多亿美元，外汇储备更是高达3万亿美元，全球独一份。 那中国为什么还要借美元呢？ 这背后的真实目的，是改写全球金融规则，直指美元霸权的要害，中国发行的不是美债，而是美债的掘墓人，特朗普跟美联储恐怕都要坐不住了。 为什么这么说呢？三大原因。 第一点，这是对中国主权信用认可度的最好测试。 过去几十年里，世界各国的主权信用，牢牢地攥在3家评级机构的手里，分别是美国的穆迪、标准普尔，和欧美合资的惠誉。 美元霸权收割全球，这3家机构都出了不少力，每当华尔街要收割一个国家的优质资产时，这3家机构就会一起发力，大幅调降目标国家的主权信用评级，市 场投资者一看，马上就会引起恐慌，纷纷抛售这个国家的外汇、债券和股票。 面对投资者的挤兑，本来没问题的国家 ...

前言 2024年国际金价40次刷新纪录，冲破每盎司2800美元大关，全年涨幅超27%创下14年之最，2025年初至 今涨幅再超10%。 与金价疯狂形成对比的是中国央行公开购金数据格外低调，2024年6-8月单月购入量均不足2.3吨。 但分析机构测算显示，中国实际购金规模可能是官方数据的10倍以上，法国兴业银行更是估算2024年中 国总购金量或达250吨，占全球央行购金需求的三分之一。 这场动静悬殊的隐秘购金，除了去美元化的深层逻辑，还暗藏着怎样的市场布局与战略考量？ 中国购金规模 中国实际购金规模与官方数据的巨大差距，并不是市场凭空猜测，而是有多重数据与产业链事实支撑。 作为全球最大黄金生产国，2024年中国原料产金377.24吨，加上156.86吨进口原料产金，全国总产金量 达534.11吨，充足的国内产能让中国无需依赖公开进口即可补充储备。 中国的低调更有额外优势，上海黄金交易所国际板的"直通车"政策已经打通国内产业链与国际金库的衔 接，149公斤标准金锭可直接运抵国际板仓库，运输效率提升50%以上，2025年相关业务规模预计超100 亿元。 加上保税黄金不设存储期限的政策支持，中国既能便捷囤积黄金，又能 ...

今年以来发行规模已逼近万亿元，腾讯、阿里巴巴等科技巨头跻身发行人行列……作为中国境外发行、 以人民币计价，并以人民币还本付息的离岸人民币债券，点心债正以"供需两旺"的态势持续发展。专家 表示，政策红利、市场需求与资产质量提升的多重合力，在推动点心债市场扩容的同时，更在支持实体 经济、助推人民币国际化进程中发挥着关键性作用。（中证报） ...

Core Insights - The offshore RMB bond market, known as "dim sum bonds," is experiencing significant growth, with issuance nearing 1 trillion yuan this year, driven by demand from major tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 18, 2025, the issuance scale of dim sum bonds has surpassed 980 billion yuan, establishing itself as a crucial channel for overseas financing for Chinese enterprises and a key driver for RMB internationalization [2]. - The market has seen a diversification of issuers, with sovereign and government entities accounting for 18.1% of the issuance in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a strategic mission to support RMB internationalization and enhance Hong Kong's status as a financial center [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The continuous development of the dim sum bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, market demand, and improved asset quality, which collectively drive market expansion [3]. - Policy measures, such as the optimization of outbound investment channels and the enhancement of the offshore RMB bond repurchase mechanism, have significantly bolstered market liquidity and demand for dim sum bonds [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The growth of the dim sum bond market is not only beneficial for the market itself but also plays a vital role in supporting the real economy, promoting RMB internationalization, and advancing the bond market [4]. - The expansion of the dim sum bond market enhances the breadth and depth of the offshore bond market, providing more RMB asset options for international investors and facilitating a closed-loop flow of RMB in trade settlements and offshore investments [4].

Core Insights - The offshore RMB bond market, known as "dim sum bonds," is experiencing significant growth, with issuance nearing 1 trillion yuan in 2023, driven by demand from major tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba [1][2] - The diversification of issuers, including sovereign and government entities, is enhancing the market's role in supporting the internationalization of the RMB and solidifying Hong Kong's status as a financial hub [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2023, the issuance of dim sum bonds has surpassed 980 billion yuan since 2025, establishing it as a crucial channel for overseas financing for Chinese enterprises [1] - Major tech firms are increasingly utilizing dim sum bonds to fund global expansion and investments in AI, with total issuance exceeding 47 billion yuan and a subscription amount reaching approximately 150 billion yuan, 3.2 times the issuance [2] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The growth of the dim sum bond market is attributed to a combination of policy support, market demand, and improved asset quality, which together drive market expansion [2][3] - The optimization of domestic capital outflow channels, such as the "Southbound Trading" initiative, has broadened the investor base and enhanced market liquidity, stimulating demand for dim sum bonds [2] Group 3: Investment Appeal - Dim sum bonds offer attractive yields compared to onshore credit bonds while remaining lower than offshore USD bonds, appealing to both issuers and investors [3] - The expansion of green and tech-related issuers is improving the asset quality of dim sum bonds, increasing their attractiveness to international investors [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the dim sum bond market's prospects, anticipating strong growth driven by local government bonds, foreign financial bonds, and TMT bonds [4] - The ongoing expansion of the "Southbound Trading" initiative is expected to enhance market liquidity, creating a favorable environment for investment opportunities [4]